Don't want to stake any bets No confidence in these cards The message isn't sharp enough Feel we should back off today Return to the account tomorrow
Pretty insignificant message Don't see me having many bets Those I do will be just playful
No short priced horses today The selections all 5/1 or more So hard to predict the outcome
More interested in Saturday Trying to raise my game there Not a day to go on the attack
Thursday's Summary
Shorter message with one bet PUCHITA beaten into 5th place Expected more but in hindsight I think she had some excuses There was a front runner bias There was a high draw bias too Both 1st and 2nd drawn high Made the running stayed there PUCHITA was given a bit to do Stayed on well made her move But away from the main action Lots of the earlier races there Were won by the front runners Horses off the pace struggled Not an excuse an observation PUCHITA up against this bias Drawn in the middle just failed She is entered next on Tuesday I still she is about to win a race One of those losers I'd respect And consider her for next week
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Lingfield 12.30
3/1 Axel Jacklin, 100/30 Prince Rock, 7/2 Brockey Rise 9/2 N Over J, 7/1 Billyoakes, 8/1 The British Lion 50/1 Conqueress.
7f Handicap
Not a very friendly race With just the 7 runners And 6 we can not rule out
N OVER J has raced once in 87 days AXEL JACKLIN raced once in 139 days
Number of runs In the previous 12 weeks
6 Brockey Rise 5 Billyoakes 5 Prince Rock 5 The British Lion 1 Axel Jacklin 1 N Over J 1 Conqueress
The horses with just 1 run In the previous 12 weeks Could be at a disadvantage Against horses with 5-6 races I would stay with those types
Number of runs In the previous 4 weeks
3 Billyoakes 2 Brockey Rise 1 Prince Rock 1 The British Lion 1 N Over J 0 Axel Jacklin 0 Conqueress
BILLYOAKES has most recent runs I like his absence only two days ago BROCKELY RISE ran in that race I like both horses with recent runs
PRINCE ROCK is respected He would be my 3rd choice
Selection
£8 Win Bet BILLYOAKES 6/1
£2 Win Bet BROCKELY RISE 4/1
Chepstow 1.10
4/1 The Ogle Gogle Man, 11/2 Pres, 6/1 Alminar 6/1 Hugo's Reflection, 8/1 Adherence, Lac Sacre, 8/1 Troed Y Melin, 10/1 On The Road, 16/1 Big Meadow 20/1 Silent Steps, 25/1 Alberto's Dream.
3m Handicap Chase
The 3 past winners of this Had 12 or fewer chase runs Had 11st 3lbs or more
Think the best plan here Stay with unexposed chasers
Number of Chase runs
30 Lac Sacre 18 Big Meadow 18 Alberto's Dream 17 Silent Steps 14 The Ogle Gogle Man 13 On The Road 5 Hugo's Reflection 5 Alminar 4 Adherence 3 Pres 2 Troed Y Melin
LAC SACRE with 30 chase runs Far more exposed than the others He also has topweight to deal with BIG MEADOW is quite exposed ALBERTO'S DREAM is as well SILENT STEPS has 17 chase runs More than any previous winner And a mare who pulled up last time out
ALMINAR has 5 chase runs Thats fine but another issue worries me He has the combination of two things Only 1 run this season Carrying 12st in weight He is only a 7 year old as well
175 similar races in January Horses aged 7 or younger Having just 1 run that season Have a modest 1-37 record That sole winning horse Had less weight than he does Had a shorter absence than him ALMINAR could be vulnerable Beaten in this last year with less weight Has the least experienced jockey as well
ADHERENCE has 4 chase runs Fell early in 2 of his 4 races Feel there are safer choices And he is drifting very badly
No strong objections to the rest
HUGOS REFLECTION has a chance But has to prove his stamina as well Won last time but not raced in 38 days
TROED Y MELIN has 2 chase starts As he unseated before the first fence He has actually had only 1 chase run That makes him the least experienced Bottomweight so also the least classy His official rating of only 94 Puts him 8lbs lower than all the others He was 66/1 on his chasing debut
THE OGLE OGLE MAN is a positive Much as his numbers are quite static And he may not have much improvement
ON THE ROAD also shortlistable
PRES is the selection
Risky with 3 chase runs But he is the only 6 year old 2 years younger than the others Similar horses scored well
Horses aged 6 Under 4 chase runs Under 9 career runs Running within 7 weeks Coming from 2m 4f + Carrying 11st 3lbs or more Have a 6-17 record
PRES shares this 6-17 record
Want him on the staking Not the biggest of horses Would worry me in a race like this But this is a drop in class here
Going for a win bet and savers Rather than trust him each way
Stop Pres
PRES is a non runner Going with this bet instead
Selection
£4.00 Each Way ON THE ROAD 8/1
£2.00 Win Bet THE OGLE OGLE MAN 5/1
Musselburgh 2.25
4/5 Smart Lass, 4/1 Winfola, 11/2 Royal Cosmic 8/1 Dieu Benisse, Set In Stone, 12/1 Flood Defence 20/1 Movin'on Up, 66/1 Shabba Dada Do.
Mares Novice Hurdle
SMART LASS is a 5yo Only has 1 hurdle start He has opponents here Who are older than he has With more hurdling experience
She damsire worries me as well Stamina index of only 6.9 furlongs There are also a few here Who had far better flat ratings Going to oppose her each way
WINFOLA has no hurdling form Normally 25 runs on the flat Would make he a negative here But these were French races Doesn't make her a positive With no hurdling experience And an absence on softer ground Felt she was too risky as well
January and February Mares Novice Hurdles Distances of 2m 6f or less No horses have won With over 25 career starts ROYAL COSMIC has 36 runs SET IN STONE has 30 runs Both well established flat horses None of these types have won
DIEU BENISSE unseated last time Not ideal but she has positives She brings handicap form into this Has a National hunt background She has at least won a hurdle race
Selection
DIEU BENISSE 5/1
Each Way
Lingfield 3.40
6/4 Rhubarb Bikini, 4/1 Aventuriere, 5/1 Gregory K 9/2 Bentley Wood, 8/1 Angel On High 33/1 Cafe Milano, 33/1 Stealth Command 66/1 Rock Of Pensax.
10f Novice
14 similar races in January
GREGORY K is unraced Best guess based on his pedigree He will struggle to stay 10f on debut AVENTURIERE didn't appeal much Fillies like her are 0-31 in these races She is the only filly in this race as well She could be here to get handicapped ANGEL ON HIGH could be as well Needs this 3rd run to get a rating Started 33/1 last time on second run Feel he is too risky on his 3rd start
RHUBARB BIKINI won last time Has a step up in trip and penalty No statistical objections to that He looks the most likely winner But he is understandably short Going to split stake this Novice BENTLEY WOOD may improve The absence is not a big issue
Selection
£5 Win Bet BENTLEY WOOD 7/1
£5 Win Bet RHUBARB BIKINI 4/5
Dundalk 5.00
9/4 Wild Shot, 5/1 Paistiul, 7/1 Comporta 7/1 Monsieur Piquer, 8/1 Solar Heat, 10/1 No Trouble, 10/1 Followme Followyou, 12/1 Miss Louise, 16/1 Anfaass 25/1 Glenbank King, Misty Mountain, 33/1 Crystal Pool 33/1 Duquesa Beach, Red Vermillion.
12f Handicap
Messy race with few positives
Dundalk has 13 similar races Run during the month of January They all shared the same profile
Aged under 10 Running within 5 weeks Class 5-6 last time out Coming from 10f-12f last time Beaten under 10 lengths last time All 13 winners shared this profile
4 Horses share this profile
ROCKVIEW ROMAN PAISTIUL WILD SHOT MONSIEUR PIQUER
WILD SHOT has a chance But not keen on his profile much Horses aged 6 or more Coming from 10f or shorter Absent more than 14 days Have a 3-105 record in these races None of the 3 had his weight
PAISTIUL is a 4yo filly She is up in trip and short of runs Just 1 race in the last 98 days my worry FOLLOWME FOLLOWYOU the same issue She has raced once in 132 days now
Horses aged 4 Coming from an 8f race Return a 0-40 record in these races NO TROUBLE has this unsafe profile
ANFAAS also steps up from an 8f race Exposed with 1 run in 106 days He would not be my first choice
Not keen on those with long absences None look similar to those overcoming it
MISS LOUISE a mare absent 189 days RED VERMILLION has 105 days absence Lacks experience and hard to commit too CRYSTAL POOL rejected with an absence GLENCANK KING is a 12yo absent 139 days
MISTY MOUNTAIN a very exposed mare Lacks a recent run and isn't running well DUQUESA BEACH goes from 7f to 12 Far too radical a step up in distance SOLAR HEAT is 11 years old now Pulled up in a chase last time out Far too unorthodox lacking positives COMPORTA has been hurdling lately Not a positive and not first choice Not from a high scoring stable either Who have not had a flat winner in years
Shortlist
ROCKVIEW ROMAN MONSIEUR PIQUER
ROCKVIEW ROMAN is a 4yo Not certain to run as first reserve But is unexposed and has ability Promises to improve at this trip
Both met each other last time ROCKVIEW ROMAN was odds on Having come there on a hat trick MONSIEUR PIQUER was 7/1 there
MONSIEUR PIQUER was 5th But clearly went off too quickly Had previously ran well over 12f Looks one of the stronger horses
ROCKVIEW ROMAN if he runs Would be an optional saver bet
Selection
£4 Each Way MONSIEUR PIQUER 8/1
£2 Win Bet ROCKVIEW ROMAN 7/2
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Monday
There will be no message
Have an early hospital appointment The fall out from Decembers illness Day patient so won't be any problem Tuesday messages will then resume
Australian Open Tennis
Looks like it is taking place Despite the pollution issues The draw has been released
Projected Quarter Finals
Rafa Nadal v Dominic Thiem
D. Medvedev v A. Zverev
M Berretini v Roger Federer
N. Djokovic v Stefano Tsitsipas
Novak Djokovic
To win this event
He has to get past these three
QF - Stefano Tsitsipas SF - Roger Federer Final - Rafa Nadal
Some see that as a bad draw No worse than anyone else
Made the Decision earlier Not to have a big bet on him Not at 5/4 with all the issues
Having said all that I would be very confident Novak Djokovic will win I'm already half regretting The decision not to bet him
I have a solution Including him in a personal bet That I am working on right now Will give you details on Sunday
Sunday's Column
20/1 + Personal Bet
Staking this bet to £50
Returns will be about £1000
There are 2 chances of £1000
And 3 savers to return the £50
It could offer serious pleasure Watching how the bet develops
Saturday
Haydock 2.40
Peter Marsh Chase
9/2 Acting Lass 11/2 Prime Venture 6/1 Definitly Red 6/1 Midnight Tune 7/1 Champers On Ice 7/1 Geronimo 8/1 Vintage Clouds 10/1 Flying Angel 10/1 Claud And Goldie 20/1 Red Indian
Tomorrow
10 Horses declared
Calipso Collonges does not run He was well touted in many places But I did say he had other options
Looked at the race midweek 4 Horses are still on my shortlist
VINTAGE CLOUDS was shortlisted He will be ok with just 10 runners Hard to get back into bed with him So exposed and not overbig either But he could be the right option
FLYING ANGEL had one concern Coming from 2m 5f is not the norm
ACTING LASS made the shortlist Maybe he is the right each way bet
CHAMPERS ON ICE made this too But 4 chase runs leaves me cold Far from sure thats a sensible plan
Decision made tomorrow Anything can change overnight
Supreme Novice Hurdle
6/1 Abacadabras 9/1 Fiddlerontheroof 10/1 Shiskin 14/1 Edwardstone 14/1 Envoi Allen 16/1 Chantry House 16/1 Captain Guiness 161 Master Debonair 20/1 Andy Dufresne 25/1 Janidil 251 Unexcepted 25/1 Mister Coffey 25/1 Sporting John
One of two recent developments
ABADADABRAS is drifting right now Available now at 6/1 on Betfair today May or may not be a concern here It could always suggest a problem But it also be other factors as well Like achievements from other horses
ANDY DUFRESNE won recently CAPTAIN GERARD was second
Many impressed by the runner up Neither have safe enough profiles
Going back to 2000 5 year olds Supreme winners There were 7 of these
They had 9 4 5 9 5 6 21 career runs CAPTAIN GERARD only has 2 runs ANDY DUFRESNE does have 4 runs The same as 2015 winner Douvan But lets face it he was exceptional And he had 4 previous hurdle run ANDY DUFRESNE only has 3 runs
Past 5yo winners Had 7 4 5 4 4 4 4 hurdle runs ANDY DUFRESNE has fewer (3) CAPTAIN GERARD only has 2 runs Don't see either as safe enough
SHISHKIN is a new player This 6yo won easily yesterday He is trading around 10/1 to win
He's only had 3 lifetime runs One of those he fell at the 2nd So he has only has 2 proper runs
SHISHKIN looks inexperienced
Past winners career runs 14 14 4 7 4 5 7 5 4 7 8 9 8 SHISHKIN is well behind these
Lots can still change EDWARDSTONE runs this weekend If he wins he has to be respected But his sires hurdlers at the festival Are 0-40 in races short of 3 miles
ABADADABRAS Still my provisional choice But need to monitor the market Some recent signs of weakness
What I need from him Come out and win in February Ideally at Leopardstown on the 2nd If he does that he wins the Supreme
Ante Post Statistics
Cheltenham
March 11th
RSA Novices' Chase
4/1 Champ 13/2 Minella Indo 9/1 Battleoverdoyen 12/1 Slate House 16/1 Faugheen 20/1 Allaho 20/1 Carefully Selected 25/1 Pym 25/1 Black Op 25/1 Copperhead 25/1 Master Tommytucker
Previous RSA Chase winners Had the following career runs
The last 19 RSA Chase winners Had the following Chase starts 3 4 5 2 3 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4 Only Don Poli won with 2 chases
18 of the last 20 RSA winners Had at least 3 runs this season
Horses aged 6 Have a poor 1-42 record since 1998 We had a 6yo winner in 2015 But overall this age is weak
Horses aged 9 or more Have a 0-24 record since 1998
Horses aged 8 Have a modest 2-47 record
Horses aged 7 are best Winning 16 of the last 21 renewals
Most winners ran within 53 days There were only 2 exceptions The 2015 winner had 72 days off The 2019 winner had 76 days off None have won absent 77 + days None won running within 3 weeks
No past winner Came from 2m 3f or shorter Only Presenting Percy in 2018 Came from 2m 4f or shorter 19 of the last 20 winners Had a prep race over 2m 5f or more
Best Profile
Horses aged 7yo-8yo 8-18 lifetime starts 3-4-5 previous chase runs 3 or more runs that season Running within 76 days
Comments on Mathematician 3433
Senior Member
Usergroup: Moderators
Joined: Nov 05, 2003
Total Topics: 6449
Total Comments: 15225
Posted Jan 17, 2020 - 03:45 AM:
Mathematician 3433
Friday January 17th
5 Previews
0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet
No Staked Bet
Today's Message
Not many previews this week
Only had 10 in the last 3 days
Have found few races I liked
Which could be my own fault
It could be the time of year
Maybe there was little to find
Lingfield 12.30
Chepstow 1.10
Musselburgh 2.25
Lingfield 3.40
Dundalk 5.00
Don't want to stake any bets
No confidence in these cards
The message isn't sharp enough
Feel we should back off today
Return to the account tomorrow
Pretty insignificant message
Don't see me having many bets
Those I do will be just playful
No short priced horses today
The selections all 5/1 or more
So hard to predict the outcome
More interested in Saturday
Trying to raise my game there
Not a day to go on the attack
Thursday's Summary
Shorter message with one bet
PUCHITA beaten into 5th place
Expected more but in hindsight
I think she had some excuses
There was a front runner bias
There was a high draw bias too
Both 1st and 2nd drawn high
Made the running stayed there
PUCHITA was given a bit to do
Stayed on well made her move
But away from the main action
Lots of the earlier races there
Were won by the front runners
Horses off the pace struggled
Not an excuse an observation
PUCHITA up against this bias
Drawn in the middle just failed
She is entered next on Tuesday
I still she is about to win a race
One of those losers I'd respect
And consider her for next week
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Lingfield 12.30
3/1 Axel Jacklin, 100/30 Prince Rock, 7/2 Brockey Rise
9/2 N Over J, 7/1 Billyoakes, 8/1 The British Lion
50/1 Conqueress.
7f Handicap
Not a very friendly race
With just the 7 runners
And 6 we can not rule out
N OVER J has raced once in 87 days
AXEL JACKLIN raced once in 139 days
Number of runs
In the previous 12 weeks
6 Brockey Rise
5 Billyoakes
5 Prince Rock
5 The British Lion
1 Axel Jacklin
1 N Over J
1 Conqueress
The horses with just 1 run
In the previous 12 weeks
Could be at a disadvantage
Against horses with 5-6 races
I would stay with those types
Number of runs
In the previous 4 weeks
3 Billyoakes
2 Brockey Rise
1 Prince Rock
1 The British Lion
1 N Over J
0 Axel Jacklin
0 Conqueress
BILLYOAKES has most recent runs
I like his absence only two days ago
BROCKELY RISE ran in that race
I like both horses with recent runs
PRINCE ROCK is respected
He would be my 3rd choice
Selection
£8 Win Bet BILLYOAKES 6/1
£2 Win Bet BROCKELY RISE 4/1
Chepstow 1.10
4/1 The Ogle Gogle Man, 11/2 Pres, 6/1 Alminar
6/1 Hugo's Reflection, 8/1 Adherence, Lac Sacre,
8/1 Troed Y Melin, 10/1 On The Road, 16/1 Big Meadow
20/1 Silent Steps, 25/1 Alberto's Dream.
3m Handicap Chase
The 3 past winners of this
Had 12 or fewer chase runs
Had 11st 3lbs or more
Think the best plan here
Stay with unexposed chasers
Number of Chase runs
30 Lac Sacre
18 Big Meadow
18 Alberto's Dream
17 Silent Steps
14 The Ogle Gogle Man
13 On The Road
5 Hugo's Reflection
5 Alminar
4 Adherence
3 Pres
2 Troed Y Melin
LAC SACRE with 30 chase runs
Far more exposed than the others
He also has topweight to deal with
BIG MEADOW is quite exposed
ALBERTO'S DREAM is as well
SILENT STEPS has 17 chase runs
More than any previous winner
And a mare who pulled up last time out
ALMINAR has 5 chase runs
Thats fine but another issue worries me
He has the combination of two things
Only 1 run this season
Carrying 12st in weight
He is only a 7 year old as well
175 similar races in January
Horses aged 7 or younger
Having just 1 run that season
Have a modest 1-37 record
That sole winning horse
Had less weight than he does
Had a shorter absence than him
ALMINAR could be vulnerable
Beaten in this last year with less weight
Has the least experienced jockey as well
ADHERENCE has 4 chase runs
Fell early in 2 of his 4 races
Feel there are safer choices
And he is drifting very badly
No strong objections to the rest
HUGOS REFLECTION has a chance
But has to prove his stamina as well
Won last time but not raced in 38 days
TROED Y MELIN has 2 chase starts
As he unseated before the first fence
He has actually had only 1 chase run
That makes him the least experienced
Bottomweight so also the least classy
His official rating of only 94
Puts him 8lbs lower than all the others
He was 66/1 on his chasing debut
THE OGLE OGLE MAN is a positive
Much as his numbers are quite static
And he may not have much improvement
ON THE ROAD also shortlistable
PRES is the selection
Risky with 3 chase runs
But he is the only 6 year old
2 years younger than the others
Similar horses scored well
Horses aged 6
Under 4 chase runs
Under 9 career runs
Running within 7 weeks
Coming from 2m 4f +
Carrying 11st 3lbs or more
Have a 6-17 record
PRES shares this 6-17 record
Want him on the staking
Not the biggest of horses
Would worry me in a race like this
But this is a drop in class here
Going for a win bet and savers
Rather than trust him each way
Stop Pres
PRES is a non runner
Going with this bet instead
Selection
£4.00 Each Way ON THE ROAD 8/1
£2.00 Win Bet THE OGLE OGLE MAN 5/1
Musselburgh 2.25
4/5 Smart Lass, 4/1 Winfola, 11/2 Royal Cosmic
8/1 Dieu Benisse, Set In Stone, 12/1 Flood Defence
20/1 Movin'on Up, 66/1 Shabba Dada Do.
Mares Novice Hurdle
SMART LASS is a 5yo
Only has 1 hurdle start
He has opponents here
Who are older than he has
With more hurdling experience
She damsire worries me as well
Stamina index of only 6.9 furlongs
There are also a few here
Who had far better flat ratings
Going to oppose her each way
WINFOLA has no hurdling form
Normally 25 runs on the flat
Would make he a negative here
But these were French races
Doesn't make her a positive
With no hurdling experience
And an absence on softer ground
Felt she was too risky as well
January and February
Mares Novice Hurdles
Distances of 2m 6f or less
No horses have won
With over 25 career starts
ROYAL COSMIC has 36 runs
SET IN STONE has 30 runs
Both well established flat horses
None of these types have won
DIEU BENISSE unseated last time
Not ideal but she has positives
She brings handicap form into this
Has a National hunt background
She has at least won a hurdle race
Selection
DIEU BENISSE 5/1
Each Way
Lingfield 3.40
6/4 Rhubarb Bikini, 4/1 Aventuriere,
5/1 Gregory K 9/2 Bentley Wood, 8/1 Angel On High
33/1 Cafe Milano, 33/1 Stealth Command
66/1 Rock Of Pensax.
10f Novice
14 similar races in January
GREGORY K is unraced
Best guess based on his pedigree
He will struggle to stay 10f on debut
AVENTURIERE didn't appeal much
Fillies like her are 0-31 in these races
She is the only filly in this race as well
She could be here to get handicapped
ANGEL ON HIGH could be as well
Needs this 3rd run to get a rating
Started 33/1 last time on second run
Feel he is too risky on his 3rd start
RHUBARB BIKINI won last time
Has a step up in trip and penalty
No statistical objections to that
He looks the most likely winner
But he is understandably short
Going to split stake this Novice
BENTLEY WOOD may improve
The absence is not a big issue
Selection
£5 Win Bet BENTLEY WOOD 7/1
£5 Win Bet RHUBARB BIKINI 4/5
Dundalk 5.00
9/4 Wild Shot, 5/1 Paistiul, 7/1 Comporta
7/1 Monsieur Piquer, 8/1 Solar Heat, 10/1 No Trouble,
10/1 Followme Followyou, 12/1 Miss Louise, 16/1 Anfaass
25/1 Glenbank King, Misty Mountain, 33/1 Crystal Pool
33/1 Duquesa Beach, Red Vermillion.
12f Handicap
Messy race with few positives
Dundalk has 13 similar races
Run during the month of January
They all shared the same profile
Aged under 10
Running within 5 weeks
Class 5-6 last time out
Coming from 10f-12f last time
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
All 13 winners shared this profile
4 Horses share this profile
ROCKVIEW ROMAN
PAISTIUL
WILD SHOT
MONSIEUR PIQUER
WILD SHOT has a chance
But not keen on his profile much
Horses aged 6 or more
Coming from 10f or shorter
Absent more than 14 days
Have a 3-105 record in these races
None of the 3 had his weight
PAISTIUL is a 4yo filly
She is up in trip and short of runs
Just 1 race in the last 98 days my worry
FOLLOWME FOLLOWYOU the same issue
She has raced once in 132 days now
Horses aged 4
Coming from an 8f race
Return a 0-40 record in these races
NO TROUBLE has this unsafe profile
ANFAAS also steps up from an 8f race
Exposed with 1 run in 106 days
He would not be my first choice
Not keen on those with long absences
None look similar to those overcoming it
MISS LOUISE a mare absent 189 days
RED VERMILLION has 105 days absence
Lacks experience and hard to commit too
CRYSTAL POOL rejected with an absence
GLENCANK KING is a 12yo absent 139 days
MISTY MOUNTAIN a very exposed mare
Lacks a recent run and isn't running well
DUQUESA BEACH goes from 7f to 12
Far too radical a step up in distance
SOLAR HEAT is 11 years old now
Pulled up in a chase last time out
Far too unorthodox lacking positives
COMPORTA has been hurdling lately
Not a positive and not first choice
Not from a high scoring stable either
Who have not had a flat winner in years
Shortlist
ROCKVIEW ROMAN
MONSIEUR PIQUER
ROCKVIEW ROMAN is a 4yo
Not certain to run as first reserve
But is unexposed and has ability
Promises to improve at this trip
Both met each other last time
ROCKVIEW ROMAN was odds on
Having come there on a hat trick
MONSIEUR PIQUER was 7/1 there
MONSIEUR PIQUER was 5th
But clearly went off too quickly
Had previously ran well over 12f
Looks one of the stronger horses
ROCKVIEW ROMAN if he runs
Would be an optional saver bet
Selection
£4 Each Way MONSIEUR PIQUER 8/1
£2 Win Bet ROCKVIEW ROMAN 7/2
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Monday
There will be no message
Have an early hospital appointment
The fall out from Decembers illness
Day patient so won't be any problem
Tuesday messages will then resume
Australian Open Tennis
Looks like it is taking place
Despite the pollution issues
The draw has been released
Projected Quarter Finals
Rafa Nadal v Dominic Thiem
D. Medvedev v A. Zverev
M Berretini v Roger Federer
N. Djokovic v Stefano Tsitsipas
Novak Djokovic
To win this event
He has to get past these three
QF - Stefano Tsitsipas
SF - Roger Federer
Final - Rafa Nadal
Some see that as a bad draw
No worse than anyone else
Made the Decision earlier
Not to have a big bet on him
Not at 5/4 with all the issues
Having said all that
I would be very confident
Novak Djokovic will win
I'm already half regretting
The decision not to bet him
I have a solution
Including him in a personal bet
That I am working on right now
Will give you details on Sunday
Sunday's Column
20/1 + Personal Bet
Staking this bet to £50
Returns will be about £1000
There are 2 chances of £1000
And 3 savers to return the £50
It could offer serious pleasure
Watching how the bet develops
Saturday
Haydock 2.40
Peter Marsh Chase
9/2 Acting Lass 11/2 Prime Venture 6/1 Definitly Red
6/1 Midnight Tune 7/1 Champers On Ice 7/1 Geronimo
8/1 Vintage Clouds 10/1 Flying Angel 10/1 Claud And Goldie
20/1 Red Indian
Tomorrow
10 Horses declared
Calipso Collonges does not run
He was well touted in many places
But I did say he had other options
Looked at the race midweek
4 Horses are still on my shortlist
VINTAGE CLOUDS was shortlisted
He will be ok with just 10 runners
Hard to get back into bed with him
So exposed and not overbig either
But he could be the right option
FLYING ANGEL had one concern
Coming from 2m 5f is not the norm
ACTING LASS made the shortlist
Maybe he is the right each way bet
CHAMPERS ON ICE made this too
But 4 chase runs leaves me cold
Far from sure thats a sensible plan
Decision made tomorrow
Anything can change overnight
Supreme Novice Hurdle
6/1 Abacadabras 9/1 Fiddlerontheroof 10/1 Shiskin
14/1 Edwardstone 14/1 Envoi Allen 16/1 Chantry House
16/1 Captain Guiness 161 Master Debonair
20/1 Andy Dufresne 25/1 Janidil 251 Unexcepted
25/1 Mister Coffey 25/1 Sporting John
One of two recent developments
ABADADABRAS is drifting right now
Available now at 6/1 on Betfair today
May or may not be a concern here
It could always suggest a problem
But it also be other factors as well
Like achievements from other horses
ANDY DUFRESNE won recently
CAPTAIN GERARD was second
Many impressed by the runner up
Neither have safe enough profiles
Going back to 2000
5 year olds Supreme winners
There were 7 of these
They had 9 4 5 9 5 6 21 career runs
CAPTAIN GERARD only has 2 runs
ANDY DUFRESNE does have 4 runs
The same as 2015 winner Douvan
But lets face it he was exceptional
And he had 4 previous hurdle run
ANDY DUFRESNE only has 3 runs
Past 5yo winners
Had 7 4 5 4 4 4 4 hurdle runs
ANDY DUFRESNE has fewer (3)
CAPTAIN GERARD only has 2 runs
Don't see either as safe enough
SHISHKIN is a new player
This 6yo won easily yesterday
He is trading around 10/1 to win
He's only had 3 lifetime runs
One of those he fell at the 2nd
So he has only has 2 proper runs
SHISHKIN looks inexperienced
Past winners career runs
14 14 4 7 4 5 7 5 4 7 8 9 8
SHISHKIN is well behind these
Lots can still change
EDWARDSTONE runs this weekend
If he wins he has to be respected
But his sires hurdlers at the festival
Are 0-40 in races short of 3 miles
ABADADABRAS
Still my provisional choice
But need to monitor the market
Some recent signs of weakness
What I need from him
Come out and win in February
Ideally at Leopardstown on the 2nd
If he does that he wins the Supreme
Ante Post Statistics
Cheltenham
March 11th
RSA Novices' Chase
4/1 Champ 13/2 Minella Indo 9/1 Battleoverdoyen
12/1 Slate House 16/1 Faugheen 20/1 Allaho
20/1 Carefully Selected 25/1 Pym 25/1 Black Op
25/1 Copperhead 25/1 Master Tommytucker
Previous RSA Chase winners
Had the following career runs
9 16 10 13 8 8 11 9 11 11
12 9 10 10 18 11 9 9 8 9
Every winner had 8 + runs
The last 19 RSA Chase winners
Had the following Chase starts
3 4 5 2 3 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4
Only Don Poli won with 2 chases
18 of the last 20 RSA winners
Had at least 3 runs this season
Horses aged 6
Have a poor 1-42 record since 1998
We had a 6yo winner in 2015
But overall this age is weak
Horses aged 9 or more
Have a 0-24 record since 1998
Horses aged 8
Have a modest 2-47 record
Horses aged 7 are best
Winning 16 of the last 21 renewals
Most winners ran within 53 days
There were only 2 exceptions
The 2015 winner had 72 days off
The 2019 winner had 76 days off
None have won absent 77 + days
None won running within 3 weeks
No past winner
Came from 2m 3f or shorter
Only Presenting Percy in 2018
Came from 2m 4f or shorter
19 of the last 20 winners
Had a prep race over 2m 5f or more
Best Profile
Horses aged 7yo-8yo
8-18 lifetime starts
3-4-5 previous chase runs
3 or more runs that season
Running within 76 days
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