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trgrsthgbrt]]> https://forumcopy.mathematician-betting.co.uk/comments.php?id=1 Mathematician 3433Friday January 17th5 Previews 0 Account Bet 0 Highlighted Bet No Staked Bet Today's MessageNot many previews this week Only had 10 i https://forumcopy.mathematician-betting.co.uk/comments.php?id=57099 Fri, 17 Jan 2020 09:45:01 GMT https://forumcopy.mathematician-betting.co.uk/link.php?action=detail&id=57099
Friday January 17th

5 Previews
0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet

No Staked Bet



Today's Message

Not many previews this week
Only had 10 in the last 3 days
Have found few races I liked

Which could be my own fault
It could be the time of year
Maybe there was little to find

Lingfield 12.30
Chepstow 1.10
Musselburgh 2.25
Lingfield 3.40
Dundalk 5.00

Don't want to stake any bets
No confidence in these cards
The message isn't sharp enough
Feel we should back off today
Return to the account tomorrow

Pretty insignificant message
Don't see me having many bets
Those I do will be just playful

No short priced horses today
The selections all 5/1 or more
So hard to predict the outcome

More interested in Saturday
Trying to raise my game there
Not a day to go on the attack



Thursday's Summary

Shorter message with one bet
PUCHITA beaten into 5th place
Expected more but in hindsight
I think she had some excuses
There was a front runner bias
There was a high draw bias too
Both 1st and 2nd drawn high
Made the running stayed there
PUCHITA was given a bit to do
Stayed on well made her move
But away from the main action
Lots of the earlier races there
Were won by the front runners
Horses off the pace struggled
Not an excuse an observation
PUCHITA up against this bias
Drawn in the middle just failed
She is entered next on Tuesday
I still she is about to win a race
One of those losers I'd respect
And consider her for next week



PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Lingfield 12.30

3/1 Axel Jacklin, 100/30 Prince Rock, 7/2 Brockey Rise
9/2 N Over J, 7/1 Billyoakes, 8/1 The British Lion
50/1 Conqueress.

7f Handicap

Not a very friendly race
With just the 7 runners
And 6 we can not rule out

N OVER J has raced once in 87 days
AXEL JACKLIN raced once in 139 days

Number of runs
In the previous 12 weeks

6 Brockey Rise
5 Billyoakes
5 Prince Rock
5 The British Lion
1 Axel Jacklin
1 N Over J
1 Conqueress

The horses with just 1 run
In the previous 12 weeks
Could be at a disadvantage
Against horses with 5-6 races
I would stay with those types

Number of runs
In the previous 4 weeks

3 Billyoakes
2 Brockey Rise
1 Prince Rock
1 The British Lion
1 N Over J
0 Axel Jacklin
0 Conqueress

BILLYOAKES has most recent runs
I like his absence only two days ago
BROCKELY RISE ran in that race
I like both horses with recent runs

PRINCE ROCK is respected
He would be my 3rd choice

Selection

£8 Win Bet BILLYOAKES 6/1

£2 Win Bet BROCKELY RISE 4/1





Chepstow 1.10

4/1 The Ogle Gogle Man, 11/2 Pres, 6/1 Alminar
6/1 Hugo's Reflection, 8/1 Adherence, Lac Sacre,
8/1 Troed Y Melin, 10/1 On The Road, 16/1 Big Meadow
20/1 Silent Steps, 25/1 Alberto's Dream.

3m Handicap Chase

The 3 past winners of this
Had 12 or fewer chase runs
Had 11st 3lbs or more

Think the best plan here
Stay with unexposed chasers

Number of Chase runs

30 Lac Sacre
18 Big Meadow
18 Alberto's Dream
17 Silent Steps
14 The Ogle Gogle Man
13 On The Road
5 Hugo's Reflection
5 Alminar
4 Adherence
3 Pres
2 Troed Y Melin

LAC SACRE with 30 chase runs
Far more exposed than the others
He also has topweight to deal with
BIG MEADOW is quite exposed
ALBERTO'S DREAM is as well
SILENT STEPS has 17 chase runs
More than any previous winner
And a mare who pulled up last time out

ALMINAR has 5 chase runs
Thats fine but another issue worries me
He has the combination of two things
Only 1 run this season
Carrying 12st in weight
He is only a 7 year old as well

175 similar races in January
Horses aged 7 or younger
Having just 1 run that season
Have a modest 1-37 record
That sole winning horse
Had less weight than he does
Had a shorter absence than him
ALMINAR could be vulnerable
Beaten in this last year with less weight
Has the least experienced jockey as well

ADHERENCE has 4 chase runs
Fell early in 2 of his 4 races
Feel there are safer choices
And he is drifting very badly

No strong objections to the rest

HUGOS REFLECTION has a chance
But has to prove his stamina as well
Won last time but not raced in 38 days

TROED Y MELIN has 2 chase starts
As he unseated before the first fence
He has actually had only 1 chase run
That makes him the least experienced
Bottomweight so also the least classy
His official rating of only 94
Puts him 8lbs lower than all the others
He was 66/1 on his chasing debut

THE OGLE OGLE MAN is a positive
Much as his numbers are quite static
And he may not have much improvement

ON THE ROAD also shortlistable

PRES is the selection

Risky with 3 chase runs
But he is the only 6 year old
2 years younger than the others
Similar horses scored well

Horses aged 6
Under 4 chase runs
Under 9 career runs
Running within 7 weeks
Coming from 2m 4f +
Carrying 11st 3lbs or more
Have a 6-17 record

PRES shares this 6-17 record

Want him on the staking
Not the biggest of horses
Would worry me in a race like this
But this is a drop in class here

Going for a win bet and savers
Rather than trust him each way

Stop Pres

PRES is a non runner
Going with this bet instead

Selection

£4.00 Each Way ON THE ROAD 8/1

£2.00 Win Bet THE OGLE OGLE MAN 5/1




Musselburgh 2.25

4/5 Smart Lass, 4/1 Winfola, 11/2 Royal Cosmic
8/1 Dieu Benisse, Set In Stone, 12/1 Flood Defence
20/1 Movin'on Up, 66/1 Shabba Dada Do.

Mares Novice Hurdle

SMART LASS is a 5yo
Only has 1 hurdle start
He has opponents here
Who are older than he has
With more hurdling experience

She damsire worries me as well
Stamina index of only 6.9 furlongs
There are also a few here
Who had far better flat ratings
Going to oppose her each way

WINFOLA has no hurdling form
Normally 25 runs on the flat
Would make he a negative here
But these were French races
Doesn't make her a positive
With no hurdling experience
And an absence on softer ground
Felt she was too risky as well

January and February
Mares Novice Hurdles
Distances of 2m 6f or less
No horses have won
With over 25 career starts
ROYAL COSMIC has 36 runs
SET IN STONE has 30 runs
Both well established flat horses
None of these types have won

DIEU BENISSE unseated last time
Not ideal but she has positives
She brings handicap form into this
Has a National hunt background
She has at least won a hurdle race

Selection

DIEU BENISSE 5/1

Each Way




Lingfield 3.40

6/4 Rhubarb Bikini, 4/1 Aventuriere,
5/1 Gregory K 9/2 Bentley Wood, 8/1 Angel On High
33/1 Cafe Milano, 33/1 Stealth Command
66/1 Rock Of Pensax.

10f Novice

14 similar races in January

GREGORY K is unraced
Best guess based on his pedigree
He will struggle to stay 10f on debut
AVENTURIERE didn't appeal much
Fillies like her are 0-31 in these races
She is the only filly in this race as well
She could be here to get handicapped
ANGEL ON HIGH could be as well
Needs this 3rd run to get a rating
Started 33/1 last time on second run
Feel he is too risky on his 3rd start

RHUBARB BIKINI won last time
Has a step up in trip and penalty
No statistical objections to that
He looks the most likely winner
But he is understandably short
Going to split stake this Novice
BENTLEY WOOD may improve
The absence is not a big issue

Selection

£5 Win Bet BENTLEY WOOD 7/1

£5 Win Bet RHUBARB BIKINI 4/5




Dundalk 5.00

9/4 Wild Shot, 5/1 Paistiul, 7/1 Comporta
7/1 Monsieur Piquer, 8/1 Solar Heat, 10/1 No Trouble,
10/1 Followme Followyou, 12/1 Miss Louise, 16/1 Anfaass
25/1 Glenbank King, Misty Mountain, 33/1 Crystal Pool
33/1 Duquesa Beach, Red Vermillion.

12f Handicap

Messy race with few positives

Dundalk has 13 similar races
Run during the month of January
They all shared the same profile

Aged under 10
Running within 5 weeks
Class 5-6 last time out
Coming from 10f-12f last time
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
All 13 winners shared this profile

4 Horses share this profile

ROCKVIEW ROMAN
PAISTIUL
WILD SHOT
MONSIEUR PIQUER

WILD SHOT has a chance
But not keen on his profile much
Horses aged 6 or more
Coming from 10f or shorter
Absent more than 14 days
Have a 3-105 record in these races
None of the 3 had his weight

PAISTIUL is a 4yo filly
She is up in trip and short of runs
Just 1 race in the last 98 days my worry
FOLLOWME FOLLOWYOU the same issue
She has raced once in 132 days now

Horses aged 4
Coming from an 8f race
Return a 0-40 record in these races
NO TROUBLE has this unsafe profile

ANFAAS also steps up from an 8f race
Exposed with 1 run in 106 days
He would not be my first choice

Not keen on those with long absences
None look similar to those overcoming it

MISS LOUISE a mare absent 189 days
RED VERMILLION has 105 days absence
Lacks experience and hard to commit too
CRYSTAL POOL rejected with an absence
GLENCANK KING is a 12yo absent 139 days

MISTY MOUNTAIN a very exposed mare
Lacks a recent run and isn't running well
DUQUESA BEACH goes from 7f to 12
Far too radical a step up in distance
SOLAR HEAT is 11 years old now
Pulled up in a chase last time out
Far too unorthodox lacking positives
COMPORTA has been hurdling lately
Not a positive and not first choice
Not from a high scoring stable either
Who have not had a flat winner in years

Shortlist

ROCKVIEW ROMAN
MONSIEUR PIQUER

ROCKVIEW ROMAN is a 4yo
Not certain to run as first reserve
But is unexposed and has ability
Promises to improve at this trip

Both met each other last time
ROCKVIEW ROMAN was odds on
Having come there on a hat trick
MONSIEUR PIQUER was 7/1 there

MONSIEUR PIQUER was 5th
But clearly went off too quickly
Had previously ran well over 12f
Looks one of the stronger horses

ROCKVIEW ROMAN if he runs
Would be an optional saver bet

Selection

£4 Each Way MONSIEUR PIQUER 8/1

£2 Win Bet ROCKVIEW ROMAN 7/2





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES

Monday

There will be no message

Have an early hospital appointment
The fall out from Decembers illness
Day patient so won't be any problem
Tuesday messages will then resume


Australian Open Tennis

Looks like it is taking place
Despite the pollution issues
The draw has been released

Projected Quarter Finals

Rafa Nadal v Dominic Thiem

D. Medvedev v A. Zverev

M Berretini v Roger Federer

N. Djokovic v Stefano Tsitsipas


Novak Djokovic

To win this event

He has to get past these three

QF - Stefano Tsitsipas
SF - Roger Federer
Final - Rafa Nadal

Some see that as a bad draw
No worse than anyone else

Made the Decision earlier
Not to have a big bet on him
Not at 5/4 with all the issues

Having said all that
I would be very confident
Novak Djokovic will win
I'm already half regretting
The decision not to bet him

I have a solution
Including him in a personal bet
That I am working on right now
Will give you details on Sunday


Sunday's Column

20/1 + Personal Bet

Staking this bet to £50

Returns will be about £1000

There are 2 chances of £1000

And 3 savers to return the £50

It could offer serious pleasure
Watching how the bet develops






Saturday

Haydock 2.40

Peter Marsh Chase

9/2 Acting Lass 11/2 Prime Venture 6/1 Definitly Red
6/1 Midnight Tune 7/1 Champers On Ice 7/1 Geronimo
8/1 Vintage Clouds 10/1 Flying Angel 10/1 Claud And Goldie
20/1 Red Indian

Tomorrow

10 Horses declared

Calipso Collonges does not run
He was well touted in many places
But I did say he had other options

Looked at the race midweek
4 Horses are still on my shortlist

VINTAGE CLOUDS was shortlisted
He will be ok with just 10 runners
Hard to get back into bed with him
So exposed and not overbig either
But he could be the right option

FLYING ANGEL had one concern
Coming from 2m 5f is not the norm

ACTING LASS made the shortlist
Maybe he is the right each way bet

CHAMPERS ON ICE made this too
But 4 chase runs leaves me cold
Far from sure thats a sensible plan

Decision made tomorrow
Anything can change overnight



Supreme Novice Hurdle

6/1 Abacadabras 9/1 Fiddlerontheroof 10/1 Shiskin
14/1 Edwardstone 14/1 Envoi Allen 16/1 Chantry House
16/1 Captain Guiness 161 Master Debonair
20/1 Andy Dufresne 25/1 Janidil 251 Unexcepted
25/1 Mister Coffey 25/1 Sporting John

One of two recent developments

ABADADABRAS is drifting right now
Available now at 6/1 on Betfair today
May or may not be a concern here
It could always suggest a problem
But it also be other factors as well
Like achievements from other horses

ANDY DUFRESNE won recently
CAPTAIN GERARD was second

Many impressed by the runner up
Neither have safe enough profiles

Going back to 2000
5 year olds Supreme winners
There were 7 of these

They had 9 4 5 9 5 6 21 career runs
CAPTAIN GERARD only has 2 runs
ANDY DUFRESNE does have 4 runs
The same as 2015 winner Douvan
But lets face it he was exceptional
And he had 4 previous hurdle run
ANDY DUFRESNE only has 3 runs

Past 5yo winners
Had 7 4 5 4 4 4 4 hurdle runs
ANDY DUFRESNE has fewer (3)
CAPTAIN GERARD only has 2 runs
Don't see either as safe enough

SHISHKIN is a new player
This 6yo won easily yesterday
He is trading around 10/1 to win

He's only had 3 lifetime runs
One of those he fell at the 2nd
So he has only has 2 proper runs

SHISHKIN looks inexperienced

Past winners career runs
14 14 4 7 4 5 7 5 4 7 8 9 8
SHISHKIN is well behind these

Lots can still change
EDWARDSTONE runs this weekend
If he wins he has to be respected
But his sires hurdlers at the festival
Are 0-40 in races short of 3 miles

ABADADABRAS
Still my provisional choice
But need to monitor the market
Some recent signs of weakness

What I need from him
Come out and win in February
Ideally at Leopardstown on the 2nd
If he does that he wins the Supreme




Ante Post Statistics

Cheltenham

March 11th

RSA Novices' Chase

4/1 Champ 13/2 Minella Indo 9/1 Battleoverdoyen
12/1 Slate House 16/1 Faugheen 20/1 Allaho
20/1 Carefully Selected 25/1 Pym 25/1 Black Op
25/1 Copperhead 25/1 Master Tommytucker


Previous RSA Chase winners
Had the following career runs

9 16 10 13 8 8 11 9 11 11
12 9 10 10 18 11 9 9 8 9
Every winner had 8 + runs

The last 19 RSA Chase winners
Had the following Chase starts
3 4 5 2 3 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4
Only Don Poli won with 2 chases

18 of the last 20 RSA winners
Had at least 3 runs this season

Horses aged 6
Have a poor 1-42 record since 1998
We had a 6yo winner in 2015
But overall this age is weak

Horses aged 9 or more
Have a 0-24 record since 1998

Horses aged 8
Have a modest 2-47 record

Horses aged 7 are best
Winning 16 of the last 21 renewals

Most winners ran within 53 days
There were only 2 exceptions
The 2015 winner had 72 days off
The 2019 winner had 76 days off
None have won absent 77 + days
None won running within 3 weeks

No past winner
Came from 2m 3f or shorter
Only Presenting Percy in 2018
Came from 2m 4f or shorter
19 of the last 20 winners
Had a prep race over 2m 5f or more

Best Profile

Horses aged 7yo-8yo
8-18 lifetime starts
3-4-5 previous chase runs
3 or more runs that season
Running within 76 days

*********************************************************
********************************************************* ]]> https://forumcopy.mathematician-betting.co.uk/comments.php?id=57099 Mathematician 3432Thursday Jan 16th2 Previews 1 Highlighted BetHighlighted BetNewcastle 6.30 PUCHITA 4/1Each Way1/4 Odds 1-2-31/5 Odds 1-2-3-4Take 4 p https://forumcopy.mathematician-betting.co.uk/comments.php?id=57098 Thu, 16 Jan 2020 09:52:04 GMT https://forumcopy.mathematician-betting.co.uk/link.php?action=detail&id=57098
Thursday Jan 16th

2 Previews
1 Highlighted Bet



Highlighted Bet

Newcastle 6.30

PUCHITA 4/1

Each Way

1/4 Odds 1-2-3
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4

Take 4 places if you can
But it goes down as 3 places



Today's Message


Wincanton has been abandoned
Ludlow is dominated by hot-pots
None I wanted to back of oppose



There are only 2 previews today

Market Rasen 12.40
Newcastle 6.30

As ever there are complications
Had a couple of mini meltdowns


Market Rasen 12.40

£9 Win Bet SHESHOON SONNY 3/1

£1 Win Bet FEARLESS 7/1-8/1-9/1

One major meltdown at 9.12 am
When my original bet each way
Baron De Middleton pulled out

Wanted an each way bet on him
The odds on favourite beatable
And he had a very smart profile
That has all now been blown up
So instead it's a smaller win bet



Newcastle 6.30

PUCHITA 4/1

Each Way

Really like this bet but annoyed
She was understandably drifting

In the early hours she went 8/1
Who wants to bet an older mare
Who has never won in 30 races

Then there were 2 non runners
Her price still traded around 6/1
Yet she has since been cut to 4/1

A big gamble seems to be in play
I have twice watched her lately
She' ready to win at her best trip
But we have lost the best prices


There is a very strong case
To change the message time

Either put it back to 9.00 am
Or instead delay to 10.30am
Current 9.45 time is volatile


We are due a Bet

PUCHITA has to be that

Again this is a race
With different place terms
Which I find very frustrating


4/1 Ladbrokes 1/5 1-2-3-4
4/1 Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4
4/1 Corals 1/5 1-2-3-4
4/1 Chandler 1/4 1-2-3
4/1 Sporting bet 1/4 1-2-3
7/2 Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4
7/2 Unibet 1/5 1-2-3-4
100/30 Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4

Obviously 4 places is better

Will put this down as 3 places
Not everyone will get the four

There are always mind games
A dilemma to try and resolve

Today I thought it was Puchita
And whether to stake her as a bet
When she was drifting so badly

My alternative bet
Has gone up in smoke now

Now It's a different narrative
Whether to bother now at 4/1
Because she has been backed





Wednesday's Summary

Felt that was a rubbish message
The only good decision we made
To side with Poiticise as best bet
POLITICISE each way finished 2nd
No damage but beaten in a photo
Would could have done with a win
As the rest of the message stank
NEBUCHADNEZZAR was unplaced
Liked him but didn't trust the race
Previews fell apart after that race
Dreadful ground and a trappy day
But should have done much better



PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Market Rasen 12.40

5/4 Fix Sun, 11/4 Fearless, 4/1 Baron De Midleton
8/1 Time For Another, 10/1 Sheshoon Sonny, 14/1 Rob Royal
16/1 Getaway Bay, 20/1 Click And Collect, 33/1 Maisiebella
33/1 Taqwaa, 40/1 Call Me Chris, 100/1 April Rising
100/1 Midnight Popstar.

Novice Hurdle 2m 2f

This race is about the favourite
How good how fit and how ready he is

FIX SUN is a 5 year old
He has 247 days absence
He had hurdles form last year

Running over hurdles last time
Seems to damage his profile

January Novice Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 5
Previous Hurdle from
Absent over 100 days are 0-28

January and February
Novice Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 5
Previous Hurdle from
Absent over 118 days are 0-50
FIX SUN fails these statistics

Not sure how good an angle this is
But instinct would be to oppose him
This is soft ground
He meets older decent types
Including a last time out winner
The percentage bet is oppose him

FEARLESS is respected
But no hurdle form behind him
Long 382 day absence as well

Shortlist

SHESHOON SONNY
BARON DE MIDDLETON

Like both of these
BARON DE MIDDLETON won last time
Big advantage on Novice Hurdles
His profile is impressive

January
Novice Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 7
2 career runs
2 hurdle runs
Winning last time
Running within 2 months

13 horses had this profile
6 won and they all finished
W 2 W W F 6 5 4 2 W 2 W W
BARON DE MIDDLETON shares this

I'd have liked a saver
But could not afford one
Without losing the each way option

Stop Press

BARON DE MIDDLETON

Does not run


Selection

£9 Win Bet SHESHOON SONNY 3/1
£1 Win Bet FEARLESS 7/1-8/1-9/1





Newcastle 6.30

9/2 Gunmaker, 11/2 Puchita, 7/1 Lord Of The Glen
7/1 Meshardal, 10/1 Avenue Of Stars, Kommander Kirkup
10/1 Star Cracker, 14/1 Darwina, 14/1 De Bruyne Horse
20/1 Grayboy, Someone Exciting, 33/1 Crash Helmet


6f Handicap

227 Similar races in January

CRASH HELMET has 111 days off
Sold for peanuts since last seen

DE BRUYME HORSE has 190 days off
Badly regressive when last seen
And a trainer with a poor absence record
GRAYBOY has 308 day's absence
Not matchable to any winner with topweight
SOMETHING EXCITING an older mare
Ran yesterday and did not do enough

STAR CRACKER comes from 5f
Not safe as an 8yo with 38 days off
He's raced just once in 76 days now
MESHARDAL is running low numbers
He is now 10 years old as well
Has not produced enough since 2018

DARWINA is a 4yo filly from 7f
None have won as exposed as her
She is running selling class numbers

GUNMAKER is an exposed 6yo
He has raced just once in 132 days
Horses aged 6 or more
Having 1 run in the last 4 months
Running within 28 days are 0-56
That could reflect the bounce factor
GUNMAKER looks underraced here

KOMMANDER KIRKUP has a chance
But he is a 9yo and drawn high in 12
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent 2 or more weeks
Drawn in stall 8 or more are 0-43
Since the track opened

Shortlist

AVENUE OF STARS is a positive
Has the require class for this race
Has won off higher marks
Has won in a better grade as well

LORD OF THE GLEN is a 5yo
All his wins and best figures are at 5f
But he has plenty of form over 6f
Clearly looks well handicapped now

PUCHITA a fit and consistent mare
She's yet to win from 30 career runs
I don't believe she stays 7f or more
By Acclamation out of a Namid mare
I've opposed her many times at 7f
Amazingly 26 of her 30 career starts
Have come over 7f and more so far
She has had few chances to win at 6f

Two runs ago she burst clear in front
Over Wolverhamptons extended 6f
Something caught her very late that day
Last time she led and set a fast pace
But was forced 4 wide at the bend
The winner then slipped the field
She was eased down once beaten
This easier 6f is just what she wants
She looks a horse ready to win now

Selection

PUCHITA 4/1

Each Way





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES



Cheltenham Prep Work

Gradually making progress

Yesterday sent the Statistics
For the Cheltenham 4m race

Plan to postpone the analysis
Wait until the end of next week
The entries are far too unclear

RSA Chase statistics tomorrow

January 22nd

Entries published for these races

Arkle Chase
National Hunt Chase
RSA Chase
JTL


Tempting as it is in January
To bet Cheltenham Festival horses
The vast majority of horses quoted
Should be better prices on the day
With superior place terms as well

Grand National

Several people have advised
Kimberlite Candy in the National
Tom Segal has in the Weekender

I appreciate some have done this
To fullfill their column obligations
But it does not make any sense
To risk big race January winners

Rated 140 last week
He wins the Warwick Chase
People bet him for the National
The handicapper now rates him 150
He is 20lbs higher than he was last year
The horse is still only an 8 year old
The Warwick win impressive as it was
Has not helped his Aintree chance

My only National Bet so far

ALPHA DES OBEAUX 60/1

Backed him ante post in 2018-2019
Going very well when fell in 2018
Did not run in last years National
He pulled a muscle in the build up

Always felt him ideal for the race
Can't risk him winning unbacked
He is entered to run quite soon
Probably have a quiet prep race



Saturday

Haydock 3.15

The New One Unibet Hurdle

Pentland Hills 6/4 Call Me Lord 3/1 Ballyandy 4/1
Cornerstone Lad 5/1 Darasso 6/1 Ribble Valley 12/1
Song For Someone 14/1 Minella Charmer 20/1
Eleanor Bob 33/1

This race is run Saturday

Two very annoying problem
We can not know what will run
Assuming the meeting survives

The firms betting on this race
Outrageously offer just 2 places
When there are 9 horses entered
And 7 of these are 14/1 and lower
Can not bet in this at the moment

PENTLAND HILLS

Mentioned him recently
He is 8/1 to win the Champion Hurdle
Don't like his chance there as a 5yo

Pretty sure he will run here
As he needs more runs this season
Should he be favourite here ?

He is only a 5 year old
Rated lower than several others
He has raced only once this year

Surely a 5 year old
On Heavy ground at Haydock
In a graded January hurdle is risky

Not many 5 year olds run in this
The overall record is fine (2-9)
The 2 previous winners aged 5
Did so with 4 and 2 runs that year

Recent winners
Had the following runs that year
3 4 2 2 3 2 3 2 4 2
None had just 1 run this season
PENTLAND HILLS looks unsafe
He takes out 40% of the market
We may well need to oppose him

No point doing that now
Not with just 2 places available
And no confirmed runners yet

DARASSO has 308 days absence
The last seasonal debutant to win
Was the 2006 winner Al Eile
Probably wont be selecting him
But because Joseph trains him
I would not rule this horse out

CALL ME LORD is an option
He is a Champion Hurdle outsider
Feel he is overpriced for that race

Have to be careful here
Henderson stated this week

"I'm trying to run Pentland Hills
but not sure about Call Me Lord."

CORNERSTONE LAD may run
Have no strong angles against him

Statistically
The best trial race
Kemptons Christmas Hurdle

Horses from this race
Have a very smart 8-12 record
The last 4 winners of this race
Had their prep run in this race

BALLYANDY comes from there
The race named after a stablemate
Highly likely to run in the race
No problems with older horses
He could be the bet each way

Just not right now
With the scandalous place terms





Beautiful Bet 3

Now Suspended and Over

Prompted the following feedback


Hi Guy

I have played around with this bet
for a little while now. Some bad choices.

Cashed out with juventus losing then
them scoring twice in last 2 mins will just
be taking loss in future) but all along the
same premise as your beautiful bet

Top teams in their league mainly at home
You mentioned this bet could be done
with any top teams ie Juve and Inter Milan
and started using teams all around Europe
after you mentioned this.

I sort of abandoned Man City with their
inconsistency and I’m waiting for Liverpool
to lose so didn’t bet them at Spurs but I feel
you have come across something that is a
beautiful bet and can regularly bring in money
without real effort/studying

I think there is a way for it to build faster and
maybe get out more regularly for smaller but
more regular profits with a little extra effort
and not much though

I’m aiming to get out at about £100 but as there
are loads of opportunities this comes around
(hopefully) a lot more quickly than just using
Man City Liverpool. Once I’ve built a bit of a
bank I will aim to get out at higher amounts

For example

I have just started from 20 last weekend again
and due to European xmas break it’s been quiet
I missed Juventus game I was supposed to do.
I Bet on Benfica and Man City last weekend
both winning.

I went through fixtures on Sunday took about
5 mins and identified these possible games this
week

Sat
Man City 3
Leipzig 530

Sunday
Ajax 145
Inter 2
Juve 745
Barca 8

Avoiding Liverpool Man U

Also it appears slim pickings this week as for instance
Real Madrid who are 2nd play 4th
Benfica play sporting Lisbon so feel why risk as these
will be tricky games but normally more opportunities
per week

Obviously some of these times clash on Sunday so it
will come back to a choice But hopefully Sunday night
looking at 4 more winners

I have made a few mistakes along the way but have
got the bet back in profit and feel I will make money
Over the season so I will keep you informed but I
think it’s a beautiful bet.

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