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Posted Jan 17, 2020 - 03:45 AM:

Mathematician 3433

Friday January 17th

5 Previews
0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet

No Staked Bet

Today's Message

Not many previews this week
Only had 10 in the last 3 days
Have found few races I liked

Which could be my own fault
It could be the time of year
Maybe there was little to find

Lingfield 12.30
Chepstow 1.10
Musselburgh 2.25
Lingfield 3.40
Dundalk 5.00

Don't want to stake any bets
No confidence in these cards
The message isn't sharp enough
Feel we should back off today
Return to the account tomorrow

Pretty insignificant message
Don't see me having many bets
Those I do will be just playful

No short priced horses today
The selections all 5/1 or more
So hard to predict the outcome

More interested in Saturday
Trying to raise my game there
Not a day to go on the attack

Thursday's Summary

Shorter message with one bet
PUCHITA beaten into 5th place
Expected more but in hindsight
I think she had some excuses
There was a front runner bias
There was a high draw bias too
Both 1st and 2nd drawn high
Made the running stayed there
PUCHITA was given a bit to do
Stayed on well made her move
But away from the main action
Lots of the earlier races there
Were won by the front runners
Horses off the pace struggled
Not an excuse an observation
PUCHITA up against this bias
Drawn in the middle just failed
She is entered next on Tuesday
I still she is about to win a race
One of those losers I'd respect
And consider her for next week

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Lingfield 12.30

3/1 Axel Jacklin, 100/30 Prince Rock, 7/2 Brockey Rise
9/2 N Over J, 7/1 Billyoakes, 8/1 The British Lion
50/1 Conqueress.

7f Handicap

Not a very friendly race
With just the 7 runners
And 6 we can not rule out

N OVER J has raced once in 87 days
AXEL JACKLIN raced once in 139 days

Number of runs
In the previous 12 weeks

6 Brockey Rise
5 Billyoakes
5 Prince Rock
5 The British Lion
1 Axel Jacklin
1 N Over J
1 Conqueress

The horses with just 1 run
In the previous 12 weeks
Could be at a disadvantage
Against horses with 5-6 races
I would stay with those types

Number of runs
In the previous 4 weeks

3 Billyoakes
2 Brockey Rise
1 Prince Rock
1 The British Lion
1 N Over J
0 Axel Jacklin
0 Conqueress

BILLYOAKES has most recent runs
I like his absence only two days ago
BROCKELY RISE ran in that race
I like both horses with recent runs

PRINCE ROCK is respected
He would be my 3rd choice

Selection

£8 Win Bet BILLYOAKES 6/1

£2 Win Bet BROCKELY RISE 4/1

Chepstow 1.10

4/1 The Ogle Gogle Man, 11/2 Pres, 6/1 Alminar
6/1 Hugo's Reflection, 8/1 Adherence, Lac Sacre,
8/1 Troed Y Melin, 10/1 On The Road, 16/1 Big Meadow
20/1 Silent Steps, 25/1 Alberto's Dream.

3m Handicap Chase

The 3 past winners of this
Had 12 or fewer chase runs
Had 11st 3lbs or more

Think the best plan here
Stay with unexposed chasers

Number of Chase runs

30 Lac Sacre
18 Big Meadow
18 Alberto's Dream
17 Silent Steps
14 The Ogle Gogle Man
13 On The Road
5 Hugo's Reflection
5 Alminar
4 Adherence
3 Pres
2 Troed Y Melin

LAC SACRE with 30 chase runs
Far more exposed than the others
He also has topweight to deal with
BIG MEADOW is quite exposed
ALBERTO'S DREAM is as well
SILENT STEPS has 17 chase runs
More than any previous winner
And a mare who pulled up last time out

ALMINAR has 5 chase runs
Thats fine but another issue worries me
He has the combination of two things
Only 1 run this season
Carrying 12st in weight
He is only a 7 year old as well

175 similar races in January
Horses aged 7 or younger
Having just 1 run that season
Have a modest 1-37 record
That sole winning horse
Had less weight than he does
Had a shorter absence than him
ALMINAR could be vulnerable
Beaten in this last year with less weight
Has the least experienced jockey as well

ADHERENCE has 4 chase runs
Fell early in 2 of his 4 races
Feel there are safer choices
And he is drifting very badly

No strong objections to the rest

HUGOS REFLECTION has a chance
But has to prove his stamina as well
Won last time but not raced in 38 days

TROED Y MELIN has 2 chase starts
As he unseated before the first fence
He has actually had only 1 chase run
That makes him the least experienced
Bottomweight so also the least classy
His official rating of only 94
Puts him 8lbs lower than all the others
He was 66/1 on his chasing debut

THE OGLE OGLE MAN is a positive
Much as his numbers are quite static
And he may not have much improvement

ON THE ROAD also shortlistable

PRES is the selection

Risky with 3 chase runs
But he is the only 6 year old
2 years younger than the others
Similar horses scored well

Horses aged 6
Under 4 chase runs
Under 9 career runs
Running within 7 weeks
Coming from 2m 4f +
Carrying 11st 3lbs or more
Have a 6-17 record

PRES shares this 6-17 record

Want him on the staking
Not the biggest of horses
Would worry me in a race like this
But this is a drop in class here

Going for a win bet and savers
Rather than trust him each way

Stop Pres

PRES is a non runner
Going with this bet instead

Selection

£4.00 Each Way ON THE ROAD 8/1

£2.00 Win Bet THE OGLE OGLE MAN 5/1

Musselburgh 2.25

4/5 Smart Lass, 4/1 Winfola, 11/2 Royal Cosmic
8/1 Dieu Benisse, Set In Stone, 12/1 Flood Defence
20/1 Movin'on Up, 66/1 Shabba Dada Do.

Mares Novice Hurdle

SMART LASS is a 5yo
Only has 1 hurdle start
He has opponents here
Who are older than he has
With more hurdling experience

She damsire worries me as well
Stamina index of only 6.9 furlongs
There are also a few here
Who had far better flat ratings
Going to oppose her each way

WINFOLA has no hurdling form
Normally 25 runs on the flat
Would make he a negative here
But these were French races
Doesn't make her a positive
With no hurdling experience
And an absence on softer ground
Felt she was too risky as well

January and February
Mares Novice Hurdles
Distances of 2m 6f or less
No horses have won
With over 25 career starts
ROYAL COSMIC has 36 runs
SET IN STONE has 30 runs
Both well established flat horses
None of these types have won

DIEU BENISSE unseated last time
Not ideal but she has positives
She brings handicap form into this
Has a National hunt background
She has at least won a hurdle race

Selection

DIEU BENISSE 5/1

Each Way

Lingfield 3.40

6/4 Rhubarb Bikini, 4/1 Aventuriere,
5/1 Gregory K 9/2 Bentley Wood, 8/1 Angel On High
33/1 Cafe Milano, 33/1 Stealth Command
66/1 Rock Of Pensax.

10f Novice

14 similar races in January

GREGORY K is unraced
Best guess based on his pedigree
He will struggle to stay 10f on debut
AVENTURIERE didn't appeal much
Fillies like her are 0-31 in these races
She is the only filly in this race as well
She could be here to get handicapped
ANGEL ON HIGH could be as well
Needs this 3rd run to get a rating
Started 33/1 last time on second run
Feel he is too risky on his 3rd start

RHUBARB BIKINI won last time
Has a step up in trip and penalty
No statistical objections to that
He looks the most likely winner
But he is understandably short
Going to split stake this Novice
BENTLEY WOOD may improve
The absence is not a big issue

Selection

£5 Win Bet BENTLEY WOOD 7/1

£5 Win Bet RHUBARB BIKINI 4/5

Dundalk 5.00

9/4 Wild Shot, 5/1 Paistiul, 7/1 Comporta
7/1 Monsieur Piquer, 8/1 Solar Heat, 10/1 No Trouble,
10/1 Followme Followyou, 12/1 Miss Louise, 16/1 Anfaass
25/1 Glenbank King, Misty Mountain, 33/1 Crystal Pool
33/1 Duquesa Beach, Red Vermillion.

12f Handicap

Messy race with few positives

Dundalk has 13 similar races
Run during the month of January
They all shared the same profile

Aged under 10
Running within 5 weeks
Class 5-6 last time out
Coming from 10f-12f last time
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
All 13 winners shared this profile

4 Horses share this profile

ROCKVIEW ROMAN
PAISTIUL
WILD SHOT
MONSIEUR PIQUER

WILD SHOT has a chance
But not keen on his profile much
Horses aged 6 or more
Coming from 10f or shorter
Absent more than 14 days
Have a 3-105 record in these races
None of the 3 had his weight

PAISTIUL is a 4yo filly
She is up in trip and short of runs
Just 1 race in the last 98 days my worry
FOLLOWME FOLLOWYOU the same issue
She has raced once in 132 days now

Horses aged 4
Coming from an 8f race
Return a 0-40 record in these races
NO TROUBLE has this unsafe profile

ANFAAS also steps up from an 8f race
Exposed with 1 run in 106 days
He would not be my first choice

Not keen on those with long absences
None look similar to those overcoming it

MISS LOUISE a mare absent 189 days
RED VERMILLION has 105 days absence
Lacks experience and hard to commit too
CRYSTAL POOL rejected with an absence
GLENCANK KING is a 12yo absent 139 days

MISTY MOUNTAIN a very exposed mare
Lacks a recent run and isn't running well
DUQUESA BEACH goes from 7f to 12
Far too radical a step up in distance
SOLAR HEAT is 11 years old now
Pulled up in a chase last time out
Far too unorthodox lacking positives
COMPORTA has been hurdling lately
Not a positive and not first choice
Not from a high scoring stable either
Who have not had a flat winner in years

Shortlist

ROCKVIEW ROMAN
MONSIEUR PIQUER

ROCKVIEW ROMAN is a 4yo
Not certain to run as first reserve
But is unexposed and has ability
Promises to improve at this trip

Both met each other last time
ROCKVIEW ROMAN was odds on
Having come there on a hat trick
MONSIEUR PIQUER was 7/1 there

MONSIEUR PIQUER was 5th
But clearly went off too quickly
Had previously ran well over 12f
Looks one of the stronger horses

ROCKVIEW ROMAN if he runs
Would be an optional saver bet

Selection

£4 Each Way MONSIEUR PIQUER 8/1

£2 Win Bet ROCKVIEW ROMAN 7/2

FUTURE BETTING ANGLES

Monday

There will be no message

Have an early hospital appointment
The fall out from Decembers illness
Day patient so won't be any problem
Tuesday messages will then resume

Australian Open Tennis

Looks like it is taking place
Despite the pollution issues
The draw has been released

Projected Quarter Finals

Rafa Nadal v Dominic Thiem

D. Medvedev v A. Zverev

M Berretini v Roger Federer

N. Djokovic v Stefano Tsitsipas

Novak Djokovic

To win this event

He has to get past these three

QF - Stefano Tsitsipas
SF - Roger Federer
Final - Rafa Nadal

Some see that as a bad draw
No worse than anyone else

Made the Decision earlier
Not to have a big bet on him
Not at 5/4 with all the issues

Having said all that
I would be very confident
Novak Djokovic will win
I'm already half regretting
The decision not to bet him

I have a solution
Including him in a personal bet
That I am working on right now
Will give you details on Sunday

Sunday's Column

20/1 + Personal Bet

Staking this bet to £50

Returns will be about £1000

There are 2 chances of £1000

And 3 savers to return the £50

It could offer serious pleasure
Watching how the bet develops

Saturday

Haydock 2.40

Peter Marsh Chase

9/2 Acting Lass 11/2 Prime Venture 6/1 Definitly Red
6/1 Midnight Tune 7/1 Champers On Ice 7/1 Geronimo
8/1 Vintage Clouds 10/1 Flying Angel 10/1 Claud And Goldie
20/1 Red Indian

Tomorrow

10 Horses declared

Calipso Collonges does not run
He was well touted in many places
But I did say he had other options

Looked at the race midweek
4 Horses are still on my shortlist

VINTAGE CLOUDS was shortlisted
He will be ok with just 10 runners
Hard to get back into bed with him
So exposed and not overbig either
But he could be the right option

FLYING ANGEL had one concern
Coming from 2m 5f is not the norm

ACTING LASS made the shortlist
Maybe he is the right each way bet

CHAMPERS ON ICE made this too
But 4 chase runs leaves me cold
Far from sure thats a sensible plan

Decision made tomorrow
Anything can change overnight

Supreme Novice Hurdle

6/1 Abacadabras 9/1 Fiddlerontheroof 10/1 Shiskin
14/1 Edwardstone 14/1 Envoi Allen 16/1 Chantry House
16/1 Captain Guiness 161 Master Debonair
20/1 Andy Dufresne 25/1 Janidil 251 Unexcepted
25/1 Mister Coffey 25/1 Sporting John

One of two recent developments

ABADADABRAS is drifting right now
Available now at 6/1 on Betfair today
May or may not be a concern here
It could always suggest a problem
But it also be other factors as well
Like achievements from other horses

ANDY DUFRESNE won recently
CAPTAIN GERARD was second

Many impressed by the runner up
Neither have safe enough profiles

Going back to 2000
5 year olds Supreme winners
There were 7 of these

They had 9 4 5 9 5 6 21 career runs
CAPTAIN GERARD only has 2 runs
ANDY DUFRESNE does have 4 runs
The same as 2015 winner Douvan
But lets face it he was exceptional
And he had 4 previous hurdle run
ANDY DUFRESNE only has 3 runs

Past 5yo winners
Had 7 4 5 4 4 4 4 hurdle runs
ANDY DUFRESNE has fewer (3)
CAPTAIN GERARD only has 2 runs
Don't see either as safe enough

SHISHKIN is a new player
This 6yo won easily yesterday
He is trading around 10/1 to win

He's only had 3 lifetime runs
One of those he fell at the 2nd
So he has only has 2 proper runs

SHISHKIN looks inexperienced

Past winners career runs
14 14 4 7 4 5 7 5 4 7 8 9 8
SHISHKIN is well behind these

Lots can still change
EDWARDSTONE runs this weekend
If he wins he has to be respected
But his sires hurdlers at the festival
Are 0-40 in races short of 3 miles

ABADADABRAS
Still my provisional choice
But need to monitor the market
Some recent signs of weakness

What I need from him
Come out and win in February
Ideally at Leopardstown on the 2nd
If he does that he wins the Supreme

Ante Post Statistics

Cheltenham

March 11th

RSA Novices' Chase

4/1 Champ 13/2 Minella Indo 9/1 Battleoverdoyen
12/1 Slate House 16/1 Faugheen 20/1 Allaho
20/1 Carefully Selected 25/1 Pym 25/1 Black Op
25/1 Copperhead 25/1 Master Tommytucker

Previous RSA Chase winners
Had the following career runs

9 16 10 13 8 8 11 9 11 11
12 9 10 10 18 11 9 9 8 9
Every winner had 8 + runs

The last 19 RSA Chase winners
Had the following Chase starts
3 4 5 2 3 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4
Only Don Poli won with 2 chases

18 of the last 20 RSA winners
Had at least 3 runs this season

Horses aged 6
Have a poor 1-42 record since 1998
We had a 6yo winner in 2015
But overall this age is weak

Horses aged 9 or more
Have a 0-24 record since 1998

Horses aged 8
Have a modest 2-47 record

Horses aged 7 are best
Winning 16 of the last 21 renewals

Most winners ran within 53 days
There were only 2 exceptions
The 2015 winner had 72 days off
The 2019 winner had 76 days off
None have won absent 77 + days
None won running within 3 weeks

No past winner
Came from 2m 3f or shorter
Only Presenting Percy in 2018
Came from 2m 4f or shorter
19 of the last 20 winners
Had a prep race over 2m 5f or more

Best Profile

Horses aged 7yo-8yo
8-18 lifetime starts
3-4-5 previous chase runs
3 or more runs that season
Running within 76 days

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