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Post History (last 1 comments)

Posted Jan 16, 2020 - 01:52 AM:

Mathematician 3432

Thursday Jan 16th

2 Previews
1 Highlighted Bet



Highlighted Bet

Newcastle 6.30

PUCHITA 4/1

Each Way

1/4 Odds 1-2-3
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4

Take 4 places if you can
But it goes down as 3 places



Today's Message


Wincanton has been abandoned
Ludlow is dominated by hot-pots
None I wanted to back of oppose



There are only 2 previews today

Market Rasen 12.40
Newcastle 6.30

As ever there are complications
Had a couple of mini meltdowns


Market Rasen 12.40

£9 Win Bet SHESHOON SONNY 3/1

£1 Win Bet FEARLESS 7/1-8/1-9/1

One major meltdown at 9.12 am
When my original bet each way
Baron De Middleton pulled out

Wanted an each way bet on him
The odds on favourite beatable
And he had a very smart profile
That has all now been blown up
So instead it's a smaller win bet



Newcastle 6.30

PUCHITA 4/1

Each Way

Really like this bet but annoyed
She was understandably drifting

In the early hours she went 8/1
Who wants to bet an older mare
Who has never won in 30 races

Then there were 2 non runners
Her price still traded around 6/1
Yet she has since been cut to 4/1

A big gamble seems to be in play
I have twice watched her lately
She' ready to win at her best trip
But we have lost the best prices


There is a very strong case
To change the message time

Either put it back to 9.00 am
Or instead delay to 10.30am
Current 9.45 time is volatile


We are due a Bet

PUCHITA has to be that

Again this is a race
With different place terms
Which I find very frustrating


4/1 Ladbrokes 1/5 1-2-3-4
4/1 Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4
4/1 Corals 1/5 1-2-3-4
4/1 Chandler 1/4 1-2-3
4/1 Sporting bet 1/4 1-2-3
7/2 Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4
7/2 Unibet 1/5 1-2-3-4
100/30 Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4

Obviously 4 places is better

Will put this down as 3 places
Not everyone will get the four

There are always mind games
A dilemma to try and resolve

Today I thought it was Puchita
And whether to stake her as a bet
When she was drifting so badly

My alternative bet
Has gone up in smoke now

Now It's a different narrative
Whether to bother now at 4/1
Because she has been backed





Wednesday's Summary

Felt that was a rubbish message
The only good decision we made
To side with Poiticise as best bet
POLITICISE each way finished 2nd
No damage but beaten in a photo
Would could have done with a win
As the rest of the message stank
NEBUCHADNEZZAR was unplaced
Liked him but didn't trust the race
Previews fell apart after that race
Dreadful ground and a trappy day
But should have done much better



PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Market Rasen 12.40

5/4 Fix Sun, 11/4 Fearless, 4/1 Baron De Midleton
8/1 Time For Another, 10/1 Sheshoon Sonny, 14/1 Rob Royal
16/1 Getaway Bay, 20/1 Click And Collect, 33/1 Maisiebella
33/1 Taqwaa, 40/1 Call Me Chris, 100/1 April Rising
100/1 Midnight Popstar.

Novice Hurdle 2m 2f

This race is about the favourite
How good how fit and how ready he is

FIX SUN is a 5 year old
He has 247 days absence
He had hurdles form last year

Running over hurdles last time
Seems to damage his profile

January Novice Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 5
Previous Hurdle from
Absent over 100 days are 0-28

January and February
Novice Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 5
Previous Hurdle from
Absent over 118 days are 0-50
FIX SUN fails these statistics

Not sure how good an angle this is
But instinct would be to oppose him
This is soft ground
He meets older decent types
Including a last time out winner
The percentage bet is oppose him

FEARLESS is respected
But no hurdle form behind him
Long 382 day absence as well

Shortlist

SHESHOON SONNY
BARON DE MIDDLETON

Like both of these
BARON DE MIDDLETON won last time
Big advantage on Novice Hurdles
His profile is impressive

January
Novice Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 7
2 career runs
2 hurdle runs
Winning last time
Running within 2 months

13 horses had this profile
6 won and they all finished
W 2 W W F 6 5 4 2 W 2 W W
BARON DE MIDDLETON shares this

I'd have liked a saver
But could not afford one
Without losing the each way option

Stop Press

BARON DE MIDDLETON

Does not run


Selection

£9 Win Bet SHESHOON SONNY 3/1
£1 Win Bet FEARLESS 7/1-8/1-9/1





Newcastle 6.30

9/2 Gunmaker, 11/2 Puchita, 7/1 Lord Of The Glen
7/1 Meshardal, 10/1 Avenue Of Stars, Kommander Kirkup
10/1 Star Cracker, 14/1 Darwina, 14/1 De Bruyne Horse
20/1 Grayboy, Someone Exciting, 33/1 Crash Helmet


6f Handicap

227 Similar races in January

CRASH HELMET has 111 days off
Sold for peanuts since last seen

DE BRUYME HORSE has 190 days off
Badly regressive when last seen
And a trainer with a poor absence record
GRAYBOY has 308 day's absence
Not matchable to any winner with topweight
SOMETHING EXCITING an older mare
Ran yesterday and did not do enough

STAR CRACKER comes from 5f
Not safe as an 8yo with 38 days off
He's raced just once in 76 days now
MESHARDAL is running low numbers
He is now 10 years old as well
Has not produced enough since 2018

DARWINA is a 4yo filly from 7f
None have won as exposed as her
She is running selling class numbers

GUNMAKER is an exposed 6yo
He has raced just once in 132 days
Horses aged 6 or more
Having 1 run in the last 4 months
Running within 28 days are 0-56
That could reflect the bounce factor
GUNMAKER looks underraced here

KOMMANDER KIRKUP has a chance
But he is a 9yo and drawn high in 12
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent 2 or more weeks
Drawn in stall 8 or more are 0-43
Since the track opened

Shortlist

AVENUE OF STARS is a positive
Has the require class for this race
Has won off higher marks
Has won in a better grade as well

LORD OF THE GLEN is a 5yo
All his wins and best figures are at 5f
But he has plenty of form over 6f
Clearly looks well handicapped now

PUCHITA a fit and consistent mare
She's yet to win from 30 career runs
I don't believe she stays 7f or more
By Acclamation out of a Namid mare
I've opposed her many times at 7f
Amazingly 26 of her 30 career starts
Have come over 7f and more so far
She has had few chances to win at 6f

Two runs ago she burst clear in front
Over Wolverhamptons extended 6f
Something caught her very late that day
Last time she led and set a fast pace
But was forced 4 wide at the bend
The winner then slipped the field
She was eased down once beaten
This easier 6f is just what she wants
She looks a horse ready to win now

Selection

PUCHITA 4/1

Each Way





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES



Cheltenham Prep Work

Gradually making progress

Yesterday sent the Statistics
For the Cheltenham 4m race

Plan to postpone the analysis
Wait until the end of next week
The entries are far too unclear

RSA Chase statistics tomorrow

January 22nd

Entries published for these races

Arkle Chase
National Hunt Chase
RSA Chase
JTL


Tempting as it is in January
To bet Cheltenham Festival horses
The vast majority of horses quoted
Should be better prices on the day
With superior place terms as well

Grand National

Several people have advised
Kimberlite Candy in the National
Tom Segal has in the Weekender

I appreciate some have done this
To fullfill their column obligations
But it does not make any sense
To risk big race January winners

Rated 140 last week
He wins the Warwick Chase
People bet him for the National
The handicapper now rates him 150
He is 20lbs higher than he was last year
The horse is still only an 8 year old
The Warwick win impressive as it was
Has not helped his Aintree chance

My only National Bet so far

ALPHA DES OBEAUX 60/1

Backed him ante post in 2018-2019
Going very well when fell in 2018
Did not run in last years National
He pulled a muscle in the build up

Always felt him ideal for the race
Can't risk him winning unbacked
He is entered to run quite soon
Probably have a quiet prep race



Saturday

Haydock 3.15

The New One Unibet Hurdle

Pentland Hills 6/4 Call Me Lord 3/1 Ballyandy 4/1
Cornerstone Lad 5/1 Darasso 6/1 Ribble Valley 12/1
Song For Someone 14/1 Minella Charmer 20/1
Eleanor Bob 33/1

This race is run Saturday

Two very annoying problem
We can not know what will run
Assuming the meeting survives

The firms betting on this race
Outrageously offer just 2 places
When there are 9 horses entered
And 7 of these are 14/1 and lower
Can not bet in this at the moment

PENTLAND HILLS

Mentioned him recently
He is 8/1 to win the Champion Hurdle
Don't like his chance there as a 5yo

Pretty sure he will run here
As he needs more runs this season
Should he be favourite here ?

He is only a 5 year old
Rated lower than several others
He has raced only once this year

Surely a 5 year old
On Heavy ground at Haydock
In a graded January hurdle is risky

Not many 5 year olds run in this
The overall record is fine (2-9)
The 2 previous winners aged 5
Did so with 4 and 2 runs that year

Recent winners
Had the following runs that year
3 4 2 2 3 2 3 2 4 2
None had just 1 run this season
PENTLAND HILLS looks unsafe
He takes out 40% of the market
We may well need to oppose him

No point doing that now
Not with just 2 places available
And no confirmed runners yet

DARASSO has 308 days absence
The last seasonal debutant to win
Was the 2006 winner Al Eile
Probably wont be selecting him
But because Joseph trains him
I would not rule this horse out

CALL ME LORD is an option
He is a Champion Hurdle outsider
Feel he is overpriced for that race

Have to be careful here
Henderson stated this week

"I'm trying to run Pentland Hills
but not sure about Call Me Lord."

CORNERSTONE LAD may run
Have no strong angles against him

Statistically
The best trial race
Kemptons Christmas Hurdle

Horses from this race
Have a very smart 8-12 record
The last 4 winners of this race
Had their prep run in this race

BALLYANDY comes from there
The race named after a stablemate
Highly likely to run in the race
No problems with older horses
He could be the bet each way

Just not right now
With the scandalous place terms





Beautiful Bet 3

Now Suspended and Over

Prompted the following feedback


Hi Guy

I have played around with this bet
for a little while now. Some bad choices.

Cashed out with juventus losing then
them scoring twice in last 2 mins will just
be taking loss in future) but all along the
same premise as your beautiful bet

Top teams in their league mainly at home
You mentioned this bet could be done
with any top teams ie Juve and Inter Milan
and started using teams all around Europe
after you mentioned this.

I sort of abandoned Man City with their
inconsistency and I’m waiting for Liverpool
to lose so didn’t bet them at Spurs but I feel
you have come across something that is a
beautiful bet and can regularly bring in money
without real effort/studying

I think there is a way for it to build faster and
maybe get out more regularly for smaller but
more regular profits with a little extra effort
and not much though

I’m aiming to get out at about £100 but as there
are loads of opportunities this comes around
(hopefully) a lot more quickly than just using
Man City Liverpool. Once I’ve built a bit of a
bank I will aim to get out at higher amounts

For example

I have just started from 20 last weekend again
and due to European xmas break it’s been quiet
I missed Juventus game I was supposed to do.
I Bet on Benfica and Man City last weekend
both winning.

I went through fixtures on Sunday took about
5 mins and identified these possible games this
week

Sat
Man City 3
Leipzig 530

Sunday
Ajax 145
Inter 2
Juve 745
Barca 8

Avoiding Liverpool Man U

Also it appears slim pickings this week as for instance
Real Madrid who are 2nd play 4th
Benfica play sporting Lisbon so feel why risk as these
will be tricky games but normally more opportunities
per week

Obviously some of these times clash on Sunday so it
will come back to a choice But hopefully Sunday night
looking at 4 more winners

I have made a few mistakes along the way but have
got the bet back in profit and feel I will make money
Over the season so I will keep you informed but I
think it’s a beautiful bet.

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