Take 4 places if you can But it goes down as 3 places
Today's Message
Wincanton has been abandoned Ludlow is dominated by hot-pots None I wanted to back of oppose
There are only 2 previews today
Market Rasen 12.40 Newcastle 6.30
As ever there are complications Had a couple of mini meltdowns
Market Rasen 12.40
£9 Win Bet SHESHOON SONNY 3/1
£1 Win Bet FEARLESS 7/1-8/1-9/1
One major meltdown at 9.12 am When my original bet each way Baron De Middleton pulled out
Wanted an each way bet on him The odds on favourite beatable And he had a very smart profile That has all now been blown up So instead it's a smaller win bet
Newcastle 6.30
PUCHITA 4/1
Each Way
Really like this bet but annoyed She was understandably drifting
In the early hours she went 8/1 Who wants to bet an older mare Who has never won in 30 races
Then there were 2 non runners Her price still traded around 6/1 Yet she has since been cut to 4/1
A big gamble seems to be in play I have twice watched her lately She' ready to win at her best trip But we have lost the best prices
There is a very strong case To change the message time
Either put it back to 9.00 am Or instead delay to 10.30am Current 9.45 time is volatile
We are due a Bet
PUCHITA has to be that
Again this is a race With different place terms Which I find very frustrating
Will put this down as 3 places Not everyone will get the four
There are always mind games A dilemma to try and resolve
Today I thought it was Puchita And whether to stake her as a bet When she was drifting so badly
My alternative bet Has gone up in smoke now
Now It's a different narrative Whether to bother now at 4/1 Because she has been backed
Wednesday's Summary
Felt that was a rubbish message The only good decision we made To side with Poiticise as best bet POLITICISE each way finished 2nd No damage but beaten in a photo Would could have done with a win As the rest of the message stank NEBUCHADNEZZAR was unplaced Liked him but didn't trust the race Previews fell apart after that race Dreadful ground and a trappy day But should have done much better
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Market Rasen 12.40
5/4 Fix Sun, 11/4 Fearless, 4/1 Baron De Midleton 8/1 Time For Another, 10/1 Sheshoon Sonny, 14/1 Rob Royal 16/1 Getaway Bay, 20/1 Click And Collect, 33/1 Maisiebella 33/1 Taqwaa, 40/1 Call Me Chris, 100/1 April Rising 100/1 Midnight Popstar.
Novice Hurdle 2m 2f
This race is about the favourite How good how fit and how ready he is
FIX SUN is a 5 year old He has 247 days absence He had hurdles form last year
Running over hurdles last time Seems to damage his profile
January Novice Hurdles Any distance Horses aged 5 Previous Hurdle from Absent over 100 days are 0-28
January and February Novice Hurdles Any distance Horses aged 5 Previous Hurdle from Absent over 118 days are 0-50 FIX SUN fails these statistics
Not sure how good an angle this is But instinct would be to oppose him This is soft ground He meets older decent types Including a last time out winner The percentage bet is oppose him
FEARLESS is respected But no hurdle form behind him Long 382 day absence as well
Shortlist
SHESHOON SONNY BARON DE MIDDLETON
Like both of these BARON DE MIDDLETON won last time Big advantage on Novice Hurdles His profile is impressive
January Novice Hurdles Any distance Horses aged 7 2 career runs 2 hurdle runs Winning last time Running within 2 months
13 horses had this profile 6 won and they all finished W 2 W W F 6 5 4 2 W 2 W W BARON DE MIDDLETON shares this
I'd have liked a saver But could not afford one Without losing the each way option
Stop Press
BARON DE MIDDLETON
Does not run
Selection
£9 Win Bet SHESHOON SONNY 3/1 £1 Win Bet FEARLESS 7/1-8/1-9/1
Newcastle 6.30
9/2 Gunmaker, 11/2 Puchita, 7/1 Lord Of The Glen 7/1 Meshardal, 10/1 Avenue Of Stars, Kommander Kirkup 10/1 Star Cracker, 14/1 Darwina, 14/1 De Bruyne Horse 20/1 Grayboy, Someone Exciting, 33/1 Crash Helmet
6f Handicap
227 Similar races in January
CRASH HELMET has 111 days off Sold for peanuts since last seen
DE BRUYME HORSE has 190 days off Badly regressive when last seen And a trainer with a poor absence record GRAYBOY has 308 day's absence Not matchable to any winner with topweight SOMETHING EXCITING an older mare Ran yesterday and did not do enough
STAR CRACKER comes from 5f Not safe as an 8yo with 38 days off He's raced just once in 76 days now MESHARDAL is running low numbers He is now 10 years old as well Has not produced enough since 2018
DARWINA is a 4yo filly from 7f None have won as exposed as her She is running selling class numbers
GUNMAKER is an exposed 6yo He has raced just once in 132 days Horses aged 6 or more Having 1 run in the last 4 months Running within 28 days are 0-56 That could reflect the bounce factor GUNMAKER looks underraced here
KOMMANDER KIRKUP has a chance But he is a 9yo and drawn high in 12 Horses aged 8 or more Absent 2 or more weeks Drawn in stall 8 or more are 0-43 Since the track opened
Shortlist
AVENUE OF STARS is a positive Has the require class for this race Has won off higher marks Has won in a better grade as well
LORD OF THE GLEN is a 5yo All his wins and best figures are at 5f But he has plenty of form over 6f Clearly looks well handicapped now
PUCHITA a fit and consistent mare She's yet to win from 30 career runs I don't believe she stays 7f or more By Acclamation out of a Namid mare I've opposed her many times at 7f Amazingly 26 of her 30 career starts Have come over 7f and more so far She has had few chances to win at 6f
Two runs ago she burst clear in front Over Wolverhamptons extended 6f Something caught her very late that day Last time she led and set a fast pace But was forced 4 wide at the bend The winner then slipped the field She was eased down once beaten This easier 6f is just what she wants She looks a horse ready to win now
Selection
PUCHITA 4/1
Each Way
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Cheltenham Prep Work
Gradually making progress
Yesterday sent the Statistics For the Cheltenham 4m race
Plan to postpone the analysis Wait until the end of next week The entries are far too unclear
RSA Chase statistics tomorrow
January 22nd
Entries published for these races
Arkle Chase National Hunt Chase RSA Chase JTL
Tempting as it is in January To bet Cheltenham Festival horses The vast majority of horses quoted Should be better prices on the day With superior place terms as well
Grand National
Several people have advised Kimberlite Candy in the National Tom Segal has in the Weekender
I appreciate some have done this To fullfill their column obligations But it does not make any sense To risk big race January winners
Rated 140 last week He wins the Warwick Chase People bet him for the National The handicapper now rates him 150 He is 20lbs higher than he was last year The horse is still only an 8 year old The Warwick win impressive as it was Has not helped his Aintree chance
My only National Bet so far
ALPHA DES OBEAUX 60/1
Backed him ante post in 2018-2019 Going very well when fell in 2018 Did not run in last years National He pulled a muscle in the build up
Always felt him ideal for the race Can't risk him winning unbacked He is entered to run quite soon Probably have a quiet prep race
Saturday
Haydock 3.15
The New One Unibet Hurdle
Pentland Hills 6/4 Call Me Lord 3/1 Ballyandy 4/1 Cornerstone Lad 5/1 Darasso 6/1 Ribble Valley 12/1 Song For Someone 14/1 Minella Charmer 20/1 Eleanor Bob 33/1
This race is run Saturday
Two very annoying problem We can not know what will run Assuming the meeting survives
The firms betting on this race Outrageously offer just 2 places When there are 9 horses entered And 7 of these are 14/1 and lower Can not bet in this at the moment
PENTLAND HILLS
Mentioned him recently He is 8/1 to win the Champion Hurdle Don't like his chance there as a 5yo
Pretty sure he will run here As he needs more runs this season Should he be favourite here ?
He is only a 5 year old Rated lower than several others He has raced only once this year
Surely a 5 year old On Heavy ground at Haydock In a graded January hurdle is risky
Not many 5 year olds run in this The overall record is fine (2-9) The 2 previous winners aged 5 Did so with 4 and 2 runs that year
Recent winners Had the following runs that year 3 4 2 2 3 2 3 2 4 2 None had just 1 run this season PENTLAND HILLS looks unsafe He takes out 40% of the market We may well need to oppose him
No point doing that now Not with just 2 places available And no confirmed runners yet
DARASSO has 308 days absence The last seasonal debutant to win Was the 2006 winner Al Eile Probably wont be selecting him But because Joseph trains him I would not rule this horse out
CALL ME LORD is an option He is a Champion Hurdle outsider Feel he is overpriced for that race
Have to be careful here Henderson stated this week
"I'm trying to run Pentland Hills but not sure about Call Me Lord."
CORNERSTONE LAD may run Have no strong angles against him
Statistically The best trial race Kemptons Christmas Hurdle
Horses from this race Have a very smart 8-12 record The last 4 winners of this race Had their prep run in this race
BALLYANDY comes from there The race named after a stablemate Highly likely to run in the race No problems with older horses He could be the bet each way
Just not right now With the scandalous place terms
Beautiful Bet 3
Now Suspended and Over
Prompted the following feedback
Hi Guy
I have played around with this bet for a little while now. Some bad choices.
Cashed out with juventus losing then them scoring twice in last 2 mins will just be taking loss in future) but all along the same premise as your beautiful bet
Top teams in their league mainly at home You mentioned this bet could be done with any top teams ie Juve and Inter Milan and started using teams all around Europe after you mentioned this.
I sort of abandoned Man City with their inconsistency and I’m waiting for Liverpool to lose so didn’t bet them at Spurs but I feel you have come across something that is a beautiful bet and can regularly bring in money without real effort/studying
I think there is a way for it to build faster and maybe get out more regularly for smaller but more regular profits with a little extra effort and not much though
I’m aiming to get out at about £100 but as there are loads of opportunities this comes around (hopefully) a lot more quickly than just using Man City Liverpool. Once I’ve built a bit of a bank I will aim to get out at higher amounts
For example
I have just started from 20 last weekend again and due to European xmas break it’s been quiet I missed Juventus game I was supposed to do. I Bet on Benfica and Man City last weekend both winning.
I went through fixtures on Sunday took about 5 mins and identified these possible games this week
Sat Man City 3 Leipzig 530
Sunday Ajax 145 Inter 2 Juve 745 Barca 8
Avoiding Liverpool Man U
Also it appears slim pickings this week as for instance Real Madrid who are 2nd play 4th Benfica play sporting Lisbon so feel why risk as these will be tricky games but normally more opportunities per week
Obviously some of these times clash on Sunday so it will come back to a choice But hopefully Sunday night looking at 4 more winners
I have made a few mistakes along the way but have got the bet back in profit and feel I will make money Over the season so I will keep you informed but I think it’s a beautiful bet.
Comments on Mathematician 3432
Senior Member
Usergroup: Moderators
Joined: Nov 05, 2003
Total Topics: 6449
Total Comments: 15225
Posted Jan 16, 2020 - 03:52 AM:
Mathematician 3432
Thursday Jan 16th
2 Previews
1 Highlighted Bet
Highlighted Bet
Newcastle 6.30
PUCHITA 4/1
Each Way
1/4 Odds 1-2-3
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4
Take 4 places if you can
But it goes down as 3 places
Today's Message
Wincanton has been abandoned
Ludlow is dominated by hot-pots
None I wanted to back of oppose
There are only 2 previews today
Market Rasen 12.40
Newcastle 6.30
As ever there are complications
Had a couple of mini meltdowns
Market Rasen 12.40
£9 Win Bet SHESHOON SONNY 3/1
£1 Win Bet FEARLESS 7/1-8/1-9/1
One major meltdown at 9.12 am
When my original bet each way
Baron De Middleton pulled out
Wanted an each way bet on him
The odds on favourite beatable
And he had a very smart profile
That has all now been blown up
So instead it's a smaller win bet
Newcastle 6.30
PUCHITA 4/1
Each Way
Really like this bet but annoyed
She was understandably drifting
In the early hours she went 8/1
Who wants to bet an older mare
Who has never won in 30 races
Then there were 2 non runners
Her price still traded around 6/1
Yet she has since been cut to 4/1
A big gamble seems to be in play
I have twice watched her lately
She' ready to win at her best trip
But we have lost the best prices
There is a very strong case
To change the message time
Either put it back to 9.00 am
Or instead delay to 10.30am
Current 9.45 time is volatile
We are due a Bet
PUCHITA has to be that
Again this is a race
With different place terms
Which I find very frustrating
4/1 Ladbrokes 1/5 1-2-3-4
4/1 Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4
4/1 Corals 1/5 1-2-3-4
4/1 Chandler 1/4 1-2-3
4/1 Sporting bet 1/4 1-2-3
7/2 Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4
7/2 Unibet 1/5 1-2-3-4
100/30 Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4
Obviously 4 places is better
Will put this down as 3 places
Not everyone will get the four
There are always mind games
A dilemma to try and resolve
Today I thought it was Puchita
And whether to stake her as a bet
When she was drifting so badly
My alternative bet
Has gone up in smoke now
Now It's a different narrative
Whether to bother now at 4/1
Because she has been backed
Wednesday's Summary
Felt that was a rubbish message
The only good decision we made
To side with Poiticise as best bet
POLITICISE each way finished 2nd
No damage but beaten in a photo
Would could have done with a win
As the rest of the message stank
NEBUCHADNEZZAR was unplaced
Liked him but didn't trust the race
Previews fell apart after that race
Dreadful ground and a trappy day
But should have done much better
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Market Rasen 12.40
5/4 Fix Sun, 11/4 Fearless, 4/1 Baron De Midleton
8/1 Time For Another, 10/1 Sheshoon Sonny, 14/1 Rob Royal
16/1 Getaway Bay, 20/1 Click And Collect, 33/1 Maisiebella
33/1 Taqwaa, 40/1 Call Me Chris, 100/1 April Rising
100/1 Midnight Popstar.
Novice Hurdle 2m 2f
This race is about the favourite
How good how fit and how ready he is
FIX SUN is a 5 year old
He has 247 days absence
He had hurdles form last year
Running over hurdles last time
Seems to damage his profile
January Novice Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 5
Previous Hurdle from
Absent over 100 days are 0-28
January and February
Novice Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 5
Previous Hurdle from
Absent over 118 days are 0-50
FIX SUN fails these statistics
Not sure how good an angle this is
But instinct would be to oppose him
This is soft ground
He meets older decent types
Including a last time out winner
The percentage bet is oppose him
FEARLESS is respected
But no hurdle form behind him
Long 382 day absence as well
Shortlist
SHESHOON SONNY
BARON DE MIDDLETON
Like both of these
BARON DE MIDDLETON won last time
Big advantage on Novice Hurdles
His profile is impressive
January
Novice Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 7
2 career runs
2 hurdle runs
Winning last time
Running within 2 months
13 horses had this profile
6 won and they all finished
W 2 W W F 6 5 4 2 W 2 W W
BARON DE MIDDLETON shares this
I'd have liked a saver
But could not afford one
Without losing the each way option
Stop Press
BARON DE MIDDLETON
Does not run
Selection
£9 Win Bet SHESHOON SONNY 3/1
£1 Win Bet FEARLESS 7/1-8/1-9/1
Newcastle 6.30
9/2 Gunmaker, 11/2 Puchita, 7/1 Lord Of The Glen
7/1 Meshardal, 10/1 Avenue Of Stars, Kommander Kirkup
10/1 Star Cracker, 14/1 Darwina, 14/1 De Bruyne Horse
20/1 Grayboy, Someone Exciting, 33/1 Crash Helmet
6f Handicap
227 Similar races in January
CRASH HELMET has 111 days off
Sold for peanuts since last seen
DE BRUYME HORSE has 190 days off
Badly regressive when last seen
And a trainer with a poor absence record
GRAYBOY has 308 day's absence
Not matchable to any winner with topweight
SOMETHING EXCITING an older mare
Ran yesterday and did not do enough
STAR CRACKER comes from 5f
Not safe as an 8yo with 38 days off
He's raced just once in 76 days now
MESHARDAL is running low numbers
He is now 10 years old as well
Has not produced enough since 2018
DARWINA is a 4yo filly from 7f
None have won as exposed as her
She is running selling class numbers
GUNMAKER is an exposed 6yo
He has raced just once in 132 days
Horses aged 6 or more
Having 1 run in the last 4 months
Running within 28 days are 0-56
That could reflect the bounce factor
GUNMAKER looks underraced here
KOMMANDER KIRKUP has a chance
But he is a 9yo and drawn high in 12
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent 2 or more weeks
Drawn in stall 8 or more are 0-43
Since the track opened
Shortlist
AVENUE OF STARS is a positive
Has the require class for this race
Has won off higher marks
Has won in a better grade as well
LORD OF THE GLEN is a 5yo
All his wins and best figures are at 5f
But he has plenty of form over 6f
Clearly looks well handicapped now
PUCHITA a fit and consistent mare
She's yet to win from 30 career runs
I don't believe she stays 7f or more
By Acclamation out of a Namid mare
I've opposed her many times at 7f
Amazingly 26 of her 30 career starts
Have come over 7f and more so far
She has had few chances to win at 6f
Two runs ago she burst clear in front
Over Wolverhamptons extended 6f
Something caught her very late that day
Last time she led and set a fast pace
But was forced 4 wide at the bend
The winner then slipped the field
She was eased down once beaten
This easier 6f is just what she wants
She looks a horse ready to win now
Selection
PUCHITA 4/1
Each Way
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Cheltenham Prep Work
Gradually making progress
Yesterday sent the Statistics
For the Cheltenham 4m race
Plan to postpone the analysis
Wait until the end of next week
The entries are far too unclear
RSA Chase statistics tomorrow
January 22nd
Entries published for these races
Arkle Chase
National Hunt Chase
RSA Chase
JTL
Tempting as it is in January
To bet Cheltenham Festival horses
The vast majority of horses quoted
Should be better prices on the day
With superior place terms as well
Grand National
Several people have advised
Kimberlite Candy in the National
Tom Segal has in the Weekender
I appreciate some have done this
To fullfill their column obligations
But it does not make any sense
To risk big race January winners
Rated 140 last week
He wins the Warwick Chase
People bet him for the National
The handicapper now rates him 150
He is 20lbs higher than he was last year
The horse is still only an 8 year old
The Warwick win impressive as it was
Has not helped his Aintree chance
My only National Bet so far
ALPHA DES OBEAUX 60/1
Backed him ante post in 2018-2019
Going very well when fell in 2018
Did not run in last years National
He pulled a muscle in the build up
Always felt him ideal for the race
Can't risk him winning unbacked
He is entered to run quite soon
Probably have a quiet prep race
Saturday
Haydock 3.15
The New One Unibet Hurdle
Pentland Hills 6/4 Call Me Lord 3/1 Ballyandy 4/1
Cornerstone Lad 5/1 Darasso 6/1 Ribble Valley 12/1
Song For Someone 14/1 Minella Charmer 20/1
Eleanor Bob 33/1
This race is run Saturday
Two very annoying problem
We can not know what will run
Assuming the meeting survives
The firms betting on this race
Outrageously offer just 2 places
When there are 9 horses entered
And 7 of these are 14/1 and lower
Can not bet in this at the moment
PENTLAND HILLS
Mentioned him recently
He is 8/1 to win the Champion Hurdle
Don't like his chance there as a 5yo
Pretty sure he will run here
As he needs more runs this season
Should he be favourite here ?
He is only a 5 year old
Rated lower than several others
He has raced only once this year
Surely a 5 year old
On Heavy ground at Haydock
In a graded January hurdle is risky
Not many 5 year olds run in this
The overall record is fine (2-9)
The 2 previous winners aged 5
Did so with 4 and 2 runs that year
Recent winners
Had the following runs that year
3 4 2 2 3 2 3 2 4 2
None had just 1 run this season
PENTLAND HILLS looks unsafe
He takes out 40% of the market
We may well need to oppose him
No point doing that now
Not with just 2 places available
And no confirmed runners yet
DARASSO has 308 days absence
The last seasonal debutant to win
Was the 2006 winner Al Eile
Probably wont be selecting him
But because Joseph trains him
I would not rule this horse out
CALL ME LORD is an option
He is a Champion Hurdle outsider
Feel he is overpriced for that race
Have to be careful here
Henderson stated this week
"I'm trying to run Pentland Hills
but not sure about Call Me Lord."
CORNERSTONE LAD may run
Have no strong angles against him
Statistically
The best trial race
Kemptons Christmas Hurdle
Horses from this race
Have a very smart 8-12 record
The last 4 winners of this race
Had their prep run in this race
BALLYANDY comes from there
The race named after a stablemate
Highly likely to run in the race
No problems with older horses
He could be the bet each way
Just not right now
With the scandalous place terms
Beautiful Bet 3
Now Suspended and Over
Prompted the following feedback
Hi Guy
I have played around with this bet
for a little while now. Some bad choices.
Cashed out with juventus losing then
them scoring twice in last 2 mins will just
be taking loss in future) but all along the
same premise as your beautiful bet
Top teams in their league mainly at home
You mentioned this bet could be done
with any top teams ie Juve and Inter Milan
and started using teams all around Europe
after you mentioned this.
I sort of abandoned Man City with their
inconsistency and I’m waiting for Liverpool
to lose so didn’t bet them at Spurs but I feel
you have come across something that is a
beautiful bet and can regularly bring in money
without real effort/studying
I think there is a way for it to build faster and
maybe get out more regularly for smaller but
more regular profits with a little extra effort
and not much though
I’m aiming to get out at about £100 but as there
are loads of opportunities this comes around
(hopefully) a lot more quickly than just using
Man City Liverpool. Once I’ve built a bit of a
bank I will aim to get out at higher amounts
For example
I have just started from 20 last weekend again
and due to European xmas break it’s been quiet
I missed Juventus game I was supposed to do.
I Bet on Benfica and Man City last weekend
both winning.
I went through fixtures on Sunday took about
5 mins and identified these possible games this
week
Sat
Man City 3
Leipzig 530
Sunday
Ajax 145
Inter 2
Juve 745
Barca 8
Avoiding Liverpool Man U
Also it appears slim pickings this week as for instance
Real Madrid who are 2nd play 4th
Benfica play sporting Lisbon so feel why risk as these
will be tricky games but normally more opportunities
per week
Obviously some of these times clash on Sunday so it
will come back to a choice But hopefully Sunday night
looking at 4 more winners
I have made a few mistakes along the way but have
got the bet back in profit and feel I will make money
Over the season so I will keep you informed but I
think it’s a beautiful bet.
*********************************************************
*********************************************************