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Posted Jan 14, 2020 - 03:45 AM:

Mathematician 3430

Monday January 13th

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Today's Message

Short comeback message
Exeter has been abandoned
Leaving only the 3 meetings

Had to take time off yesterday
Having done 17 out of 18 days

Today the start a fresh run
But bound to be very rusty
The weather will be difficult
Did not start this until today

Only doing 1 preview today
Bit unfortunate but unusual

Wednesday has lots of choice
Fully back up to speed there
Normal message will resume
Included in the next message
Peter Marsh Chase preview

Today's Best Bet

Fairyhouse 3.25

BRAESIDE 7/2-100/30

Each Way

Sunday's Summary

The latest message Sunday
Was just a 4 race car crash
Combination of two factors
Smaller fields and no choice
And 17 messages in 18 days
I was stale and ready to stop
Hard to do that on a Sunday

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Fairyhouse 3.25

11/10 Ashdale Bob, 9/2 Eden Flight, 11/2 Bold Assassin
8/1 Atlantic Shore, Braeside, 10/1 Vaucelet, 25/1 Henry Sellers
50/1 Thunderosa, 66/1 Padraic's Choice, 100/1 Feathered Gold.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 6f

Sexy lightly raced horses
Dominate the market here

Less flashy solid types
Who have form/numbers in the book
Should not be underestimated here
Especially as the ground is heavy

EDEN FLIGHT has ran twice
Just 1 disappointing run since 2017
Sexy connections and may well win
But he has no hurdling achievements
ASHDALE BOB is quite lightly raced
Only a 5yo and up in distance here
Ran his profile and found two winners
But they were back in 2008 and 2009
None have won for quite a long time
BOLD ASSASSIN is very inexperienced

Racing Post Hurdle Ratings

131 Atlantic Shore
129 Ashdale Bob
126 Atlantic Shore
122 Braeside - Atlantic Shore - Braeside
119 Ashdale Bob
116 Braeside
108 Atlantic Shore
106 Atlantic Shore
103 Atlantic Shore
102 Henry Sellers
101 Bold Assassin
92 Eden Flight

ATLANTIC SHORE
BRAESIDE

BRAESIDE was 3rd last time
ATLANTIC SHORE disappointed in 4th
But he came out 10 days ago
Ran a decent 2nd over 2m at Cork
That was the best figure any have done

ATLANTIC SHORE has momentum
If he repeats his last run 10 days ago
It should be hard not to go very close
BRAESIDE though gets the verdict
Looks like he has more improvement
And comes from a far better stable

ATLANTIC SHORE has a weak stable
Philip Fenton is a trainer in regression
Whilst having a solid career overall
Since 2018 his runners are just 1-76
Gordon Elliot has had more winners
In only the previous 48 hours
Than Phillip Fenton has in 3 years

Selection

BRAESIDE 7/2

Each Way

FUTURE BETTING ANGLES

Australian Open Tennis

Due to start shortly

Decided not to get involved
It looks more than possible
The event will be cancelled

They delayed the qualifying
The air is apparently so bad
A player collapsed on court

Expect things might develop
Leaving them with no choice
Could be wrong but my view
We will see a move to cancel

Cheltenham

Tomorrow we have entries
Being published in 3 races

Champion Hurdle
Mares Hurdle
Stayers Hurdle

Albert Bartlet

Statistics send last Friday
Preliminary analysis today

Target Race

Saturday - Haydock 2.40

Peter Marsh Chase

6/1 Acting Lass 6/1 Prime Venture 7/1 Definitly Red
7/1 Geronimo 8/1 Champers On Ice 10/1 Vintage Clouds
10/1 Get On The Yager 10/1 Claud And Goldie
10/1 Midnight Tune 10/1 Daklondike 10/1 Flying Angel
10/1 Calipso Collonges 10/1 Prince Of Scars 12/1 Regal Flow
16/1 Virginia Chick 16/1 Red Indian

Will look at this race
In the next couple of days

That's assuming it takes place
Haydock is heavy at the moment

We backed the winner last year
He was the most exposed horse

Quite a different race this year
For reasons I will explain soon

No 7 year olds either this year
None come from the best trial race

Annoying as well
That 16 horses are entered
And we are offered just 3 places

All that might change
Had a good look at this already
Lots of these can be opposed

Beautiful Bet 3

Preparing to Shut this Down

Current Balance

Bet 1 - £100.00
Bet 2 - £60.00

Saturday 3.00 Man City v C Palace

Sunday 4.30 Liverpool v Man United

£160 down on staking

Man City's last 3 games W W W
Liverpools last 3 games W W W
So we have stakes to play with

Bet 1 is worth £117.74

Bet 2 is worth £38.41

Man City are 1.12 on Saturday
Playing at home to Crystal Palace

Man City beating Palace

Bet 1 would be worth £131.86
Bet 2 would be worth £39.56

We could then cash that in
Forget about Liverpool v Man U

That would bring in around £171
Minus current losing balance £160
That would mean a profit of £11

We could then shut the bet down
Draw Stumps and call this a draw
And take all the stress out of this

If we carry on

Liverpool beating Man Utd
Would mean Bet 1 stakes are £191.19

If we took that option

£191 would go on Man City
On a cold Tuesday night (18th)
Where they are away at Shef Utd

Liverpool then play on Thursday
When they are away at Wolves

So if we keep this bet going

Both sides have away fixtures
Playing against talented sides
In the middle of the next week
Man City then go to Tottenham

My view

We have had enough stress
The bet has been a roller-coaster
It's been an uphill battle all along

We have a chance on Saturday
To put this bet to bed and end it
Without having lost any money

We can kill this bet off Saturday
We don't need Liverpool to win

If we carry this bet on
For it to have any success
We need the following to win

1) Liverpool to beat Man Utd (Home)
2) Man City to beat Shef Utd (Away)
3) Liverpool to beat Wolves (Away)
4) Man City to beat Spurs (Away)

Dont know about you
My Gut feeling is to Get out now

Makes a lot of sense to end this
It could cost is big money later on
But so much has to go our way

Therefore

If Man City win on Saturday
When they are home to Crystal Palace
I feel we should take a minuscule profit
And end the bet declaring it a draw

Will make a decision tomorrow

Cheltenham

March 13th

Albert Bartlet Novice Hurdle

Thyme Hill 5/1 Fury Road 8/1 The Big Breakaway 12/1
Latest Exhibition 12/1 Asterion Forlonge 20/1 Enrilo 20/1
Monkfish 20/1 Longhouse Poet 25/1 Andy Dufresne 33/1
Lord Royal 33/1 Midnight Run 33/1 Redford Road 33/1
Festival D'Ex 25/1 Imperial Alcazar 25/1 Figaroc 33/1

Last year
We had a 50/1 shock winner
Uncharacteristically lightly raced
Happy to see that as a one-off
Rather than a changing trend

In fact the last 6 renewals
Won at 50/1 33/1 33/1 16/1 14/1 11/1
But only last year was inexplicable

With no confirmed entries
This is still a very raw field
The winner may not be in the betting

The obvious flaw right now
Would be about the 5 year olds

Horses aged 5
Have a weak 2-52 record in this race

The two that won
Had 5 and 15 career starts
Had 4 and 8 hurdle starts
Had 4 and 6 runs that season

None of the 5 year olds
That seem in contention to run
Look suitable on their profiles

THE BIG BREAKAWAY is one
He only has 2 runs both over hurdles
Even as expected he runs again
He will still be short of required runs
If you look at his sire Getaway
His Listed/Graded hurdle winners
Have yet to win past 2m 4f (0-14)
I would ignore that statistic myself

THYME HILL

6 runs
3 Hurdle runs
3 runs this year

Acceptable on the above
But that would be my bare minimum
His numbers are also a positive
But you can did up some problems

His trainer has commented
He is "not the biggest horse "
And has said he may not run again
So he may go there with 76 days off

Past renewals show

Horses aged 6
Under 7 career runs
Under 4 hurdle runs
Under 4 runs that year
Absent over 48 days
I find a 0-10 record in this race
Included losers at these prices
5/2 2/1 100/30 8/1 9/1 9/1 11/1
THYME HILL the 11th to try

Right now not falling over myself
To bet him with an unconvincing profile
He also comes from a Grade 1 Hurdle
That has not been the norm in this race
Only 1 from 24 that tried managed to win
Much will depend on the opposition
But if anything appeals more than him
I would not be afraid to oppose him

FURY ROAD

6 runs
3 Hurdle runs
3 runs this year

If he goes straight to Cheltenham
He shares the same profile as Thyme Hill
We know horses with it were only 0-10

There is a quirky sire stat here
Horses sired by Stowaway
Have won 3m Grade 1 races
But the same horse won most
He did that in soft smaller fields
If you look at the sires hurdlers
Running over 2m 5f or more
Listed and Graded Class
In fields of 12 or more
They have a 0-32 record so fat
FURY ROAD might yet fail that

I wouldn't worry about that stat
FURY ROAD comes from a Group 2
The vast majority of winners did this

What would be significant
FURY ROAD running again soon
If he comes out and wins beforehand
Then he would leapfrog Thyme Hill
That's what I need before I select him

LATEST EXHIBITION is a 7yo

5 career runs
3 Hurdle runs
3 Runs this year

Past 7yo winners

Career runs 4 8 15 11 5
Hurdle runs 4 5 4 4 3
Runs that year 4 4 7 3 3

All recent 7yo winners
Had more experience than him
The one horse he is a match to
Black Jack Ketchum the 2006 winner
He also shares the same sire as him

I would like more runs for him
But if he does go straight there
I would certainly consider him
Espescially from a Grade 2 hurdle
Especially sired by Oscar as well

The Sire Oscar
Produced the 2006 2013 2018 winners

His trainer has said
He may run in a Group 1 race
At the Dublin festival at Leopardstown
The extra experience would help
Even if we lose the Grade 2 statistic

That covers
The 4 main runners in the market
The only runners under 20/1 so far

No doubt others will emerge later
And recent history clearly tells us
Outsiders have to be respected

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