Short comeback message Exeter has been abandoned Leaving only the 3 meetings
Had to take time off yesterday Having done 17 out of 18 days
Today the start a fresh run But bound to be very rusty The weather will be difficult Did not start this until today
Only doing 1 preview today Bit unfortunate but unusual
Wednesday has lots of choice Fully back up to speed there Normal message will resume Included in the next message Peter Marsh Chase preview
Today's Best Bet
Fairyhouse 3.25
BRAESIDE 7/2-100/30
Each Way
Sunday's Summary
The latest message Sunday Was just a 4 race car crash Combination of two factors Smaller fields and no choice And 17 messages in 18 days I was stale and ready to stop Hard to do that on a Sunday
Sexy lightly raced horses Dominate the market here
Less flashy solid types Who have form/numbers in the book Should not be underestimated here Especially as the ground is heavy
EDEN FLIGHT has ran twice Just 1 disappointing run since 2017 Sexy connections and may well win But he has no hurdling achievements ASHDALE BOB is quite lightly raced Only a 5yo and up in distance here Ran his profile and found two winners But they were back in 2008 and 2009 None have won for quite a long time BOLD ASSASSIN is very inexperienced
Racing Post Hurdle Ratings
131 Atlantic Shore 129 Ashdale Bob 126 Atlantic Shore 122 Braeside - Atlantic Shore - Braeside 119 Ashdale Bob 116 Braeside 108 Atlantic Shore 106 Atlantic Shore 103 Atlantic Shore 102 Henry Sellers 101 Bold Assassin 92 Eden Flight
ATLANTIC SHORE BRAESIDE
BRAESIDE was 3rd last time ATLANTIC SHORE disappointed in 4th But he came out 10 days ago Ran a decent 2nd over 2m at Cork That was the best figure any have done
ATLANTIC SHORE has momentum If he repeats his last run 10 days ago It should be hard not to go very close BRAESIDE though gets the verdict Looks like he has more improvement And comes from a far better stable
ATLANTIC SHORE has a weak stable Philip Fenton is a trainer in regression Whilst having a solid career overall Since 2018 his runners are just 1-76 Gordon Elliot has had more winners In only the previous 48 hours Than Phillip Fenton has in 3 years
Selection
BRAESIDE 7/2
Each Way
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Australian Open Tennis
Due to start shortly
Decided not to get involved It looks more than possible The event will be cancelled
They delayed the qualifying The air is apparently so bad A player collapsed on court
Expect things might develop Leaving them with no choice Could be wrong but my view We will see a move to cancel
Cheltenham
Tomorrow we have entries Being published in 3 races
Champion Hurdle Mares Hurdle Stayers Hurdle
Albert Bartlet
Statistics send last Friday Preliminary analysis today
Target Race
Saturday - Haydock 2.40
Peter Marsh Chase
6/1 Acting Lass 6/1 Prime Venture 7/1 Definitly Red 7/1 Geronimo 8/1 Champers On Ice 10/1 Vintage Clouds 10/1 Get On The Yager 10/1 Claud And Goldie 10/1 Midnight Tune 10/1 Daklondike 10/1 Flying Angel 10/1 Calipso Collonges 10/1 Prince Of Scars 12/1 Regal Flow 16/1 Virginia Chick 16/1 Red Indian
Will look at this race In the next couple of days
That's assuming it takes place Haydock is heavy at the moment
We backed the winner last year He was the most exposed horse
Quite a different race this year For reasons I will explain soon
No 7 year olds either this year None come from the best trial race
Annoying as well That 16 horses are entered And we are offered just 3 places
All that might change Had a good look at this already Lots of these can be opposed
Beautiful Bet 3
Preparing to Shut this Down
Current Balance
Bet 1 - £100.00 Bet 2 - £60.00
Saturday 3.00 Man City v C Palace
Sunday 4.30 Liverpool v Man United
£160 down on staking
Man City's last 3 games W W W Liverpools last 3 games W W W So we have stakes to play with
Bet 1 is worth £117.74
Bet 2 is worth £38.41
Man City are 1.12 on Saturday Playing at home to Crystal Palace
Man City beating Palace
Bet 1 would be worth £131.86 Bet 2 would be worth £39.56
We could then cash that in Forget about Liverpool v Man U
That would bring in around £171 Minus current losing balance £160 That would mean a profit of £11
We could then shut the bet down Draw Stumps and call this a draw And take all the stress out of this
If we carry on
Liverpool beating Man Utd Would mean Bet 1 stakes are £191.19
If we took that option
£191 would go on Man City On a cold Tuesday night (18th) Where they are away at Shef Utd
Liverpool then play on Thursday When they are away at Wolves
So if we keep this bet going
Both sides have away fixtures Playing against talented sides In the middle of the next week Man City then go to Tottenham
My view
We have had enough stress The bet has been a roller-coaster It's been an uphill battle all along
We have a chance on Saturday To put this bet to bed and end it Without having lost any money
We can kill this bet off Saturday We don't need Liverpool to win
If we carry this bet on For it to have any success We need the following to win
1) Liverpool to beat Man Utd (Home) 2) Man City to beat Shef Utd (Away) 3) Liverpool to beat Wolves (Away) 4) Man City to beat Spurs (Away)
Dont know about you My Gut feeling is to Get out now
Makes a lot of sense to end this It could cost is big money later on But so much has to go our way
Therefore
If Man City win on Saturday When they are home to Crystal Palace I feel we should take a minuscule profit And end the bet declaring it a draw
Will make a decision tomorrow
Cheltenham
March 13th
Albert Bartlet Novice Hurdle
Thyme Hill 5/1 Fury Road 8/1 The Big Breakaway 12/1 Latest Exhibition 12/1 Asterion Forlonge 20/1 Enrilo 20/1 Monkfish 20/1 Longhouse Poet 25/1 Andy Dufresne 33/1 Lord Royal 33/1 Midnight Run 33/1 Redford Road 33/1 Festival D'Ex 25/1 Imperial Alcazar 25/1 Figaroc 33/1
Last year We had a 50/1 shock winner Uncharacteristically lightly raced Happy to see that as a one-off Rather than a changing trend
In fact the last 6 renewals Won at 50/1 33/1 33/1 16/1 14/1 11/1 But only last year was inexplicable
With no confirmed entries This is still a very raw field The winner may not be in the betting
The obvious flaw right now Would be about the 5 year olds
Horses aged 5 Have a weak 2-52 record in this race
The two that won Had 5 and 15 career starts Had 4 and 8 hurdle starts Had 4 and 6 runs that season
None of the 5 year olds That seem in contention to run Look suitable on their profiles
THE BIG BREAKAWAY is one He only has 2 runs both over hurdles Even as expected he runs again He will still be short of required runs If you look at his sire Getaway His Listed/Graded hurdle winners Have yet to win past 2m 4f (0-14) I would ignore that statistic myself
THYME HILL
6 runs 3 Hurdle runs 3 runs this year
Acceptable on the above But that would be my bare minimum His numbers are also a positive But you can did up some problems
His trainer has commented He is "not the biggest horse " And has said he may not run again So he may go there with 76 days off
Past renewals show
Horses aged 6 Under 7 career runs Under 4 hurdle runs Under 4 runs that year Absent over 48 days I find a 0-10 record in this race Included losers at these prices 5/2 2/1 100/30 8/1 9/1 9/1 11/1 THYME HILL the 11th to try
Right now not falling over myself To bet him with an unconvincing profile He also comes from a Grade 1 Hurdle That has not been the norm in this race Only 1 from 24 that tried managed to win Much will depend on the opposition But if anything appeals more than him I would not be afraid to oppose him
FURY ROAD
6 runs 3 Hurdle runs 3 runs this year
If he goes straight to Cheltenham He shares the same profile as Thyme Hill We know horses with it were only 0-10
There is a quirky sire stat here Horses sired by Stowaway Have won 3m Grade 1 races But the same horse won most He did that in soft smaller fields If you look at the sires hurdlers Running over 2m 5f or more Listed and Graded Class In fields of 12 or more They have a 0-32 record so fat FURY ROAD might yet fail that
I wouldn't worry about that stat FURY ROAD comes from a Group 2 The vast majority of winners did this
What would be significant FURY ROAD running again soon If he comes out and wins beforehand Then he would leapfrog Thyme Hill That's what I need before I select him
LATEST EXHIBITION is a 7yo
5 career runs 3 Hurdle runs 3 Runs this year
Past 7yo winners
Career runs 4 8 15 11 5 Hurdle runs 4 5 4 4 3 Runs that year 4 4 7 3 3
All recent 7yo winners Had more experience than him The one horse he is a match to Black Jack Ketchum the 2006 winner He also shares the same sire as him
I would like more runs for him But if he does go straight there I would certainly consider him Espescially from a Grade 2 hurdle Especially sired by Oscar as well
The Sire Oscar Produced the 2006 2013 2018 winners
His trainer has said He may run in a Group 1 race At the Dublin festival at Leopardstown The extra experience would help Even if we lose the Grade 2 statistic
That covers The 4 main runners in the market The only runners under 20/1 so far
No doubt others will emerge later And recent history clearly tells us Outsiders have to be respected
Comments on Mathematician 3430
Senior Member
Usergroup: Moderators
Joined: Nov 05, 2003
Total Topics: 6449
Total Comments: 15225
Posted Jan 14, 2020 - 03:45 AM:
Mathematician 3430
Monday January 13th
1 Previews
0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet
No Official Bet
Today's Message
Short comeback message
Exeter has been abandoned
Leaving only the 3 meetings
Had to take time off yesterday
Having done 17 out of 18 days
Today the start a fresh run
But bound to be very rusty
The weather will be difficult
Did not start this until today
Only doing 1 preview today
Bit unfortunate but unusual
Wednesday has lots of choice
Fully back up to speed there
Normal message will resume
Included in the next message
Peter Marsh Chase preview
Today's Best Bet
Fairyhouse 3.25
BRAESIDE 7/2-100/30
Each Way
Sunday's Summary
The latest message Sunday
Was just a 4 race car crash
Combination of two factors
Smaller fields and no choice
And 17 messages in 18 days
I was stale and ready to stop
Hard to do that on a Sunday
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Fairyhouse 3.25
11/10 Ashdale Bob, 9/2 Eden Flight, 11/2 Bold Assassin
8/1 Atlantic Shore, Braeside, 10/1 Vaucelet, 25/1 Henry Sellers
50/1 Thunderosa, 66/1 Padraic's Choice, 100/1 Feathered Gold.
Maiden Hurdle 2m 6f
Sexy lightly raced horses
Dominate the market here
Less flashy solid types
Who have form/numbers in the book
Should not be underestimated here
Especially as the ground is heavy
EDEN FLIGHT has ran twice
Just 1 disappointing run since 2017
Sexy connections and may well win
But he has no hurdling achievements
ASHDALE BOB is quite lightly raced
Only a 5yo and up in distance here
Ran his profile and found two winners
But they were back in 2008 and 2009
None have won for quite a long time
BOLD ASSASSIN is very inexperienced
Racing Post Hurdle Ratings
131 Atlantic Shore
129 Ashdale Bob
126 Atlantic Shore
122 Braeside - Atlantic Shore - Braeside
119 Ashdale Bob
116 Braeside
108 Atlantic Shore
106 Atlantic Shore
103 Atlantic Shore
102 Henry Sellers
101 Bold Assassin
92 Eden Flight
ATLANTIC SHORE
BRAESIDE
BRAESIDE was 3rd last time
ATLANTIC SHORE disappointed in 4th
But he came out 10 days ago
Ran a decent 2nd over 2m at Cork
That was the best figure any have done
ATLANTIC SHORE has momentum
If he repeats his last run 10 days ago
It should be hard not to go very close
BRAESIDE though gets the verdict
Looks like he has more improvement
And comes from a far better stable
ATLANTIC SHORE has a weak stable
Philip Fenton is a trainer in regression
Whilst having a solid career overall
Since 2018 his runners are just 1-76
Gordon Elliot has had more winners
In only the previous 48 hours
Than Phillip Fenton has in 3 years
Selection
BRAESIDE 7/2
Each Way
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Australian Open Tennis
Due to start shortly
Decided not to get involved
It looks more than possible
The event will be cancelled
They delayed the qualifying
The air is apparently so bad
A player collapsed on court
Expect things might develop
Leaving them with no choice
Could be wrong but my view
We will see a move to cancel
Cheltenham
Tomorrow we have entries
Being published in 3 races
Champion Hurdle
Mares Hurdle
Stayers Hurdle
Albert Bartlet
Statistics send last Friday
Preliminary analysis today
Target Race
Saturday - Haydock 2.40
Peter Marsh Chase
6/1 Acting Lass 6/1 Prime Venture 7/1 Definitly Red
7/1 Geronimo 8/1 Champers On Ice 10/1 Vintage Clouds
10/1 Get On The Yager 10/1 Claud And Goldie
10/1 Midnight Tune 10/1 Daklondike 10/1 Flying Angel
10/1 Calipso Collonges 10/1 Prince Of Scars 12/1 Regal Flow
16/1 Virginia Chick 16/1 Red Indian
Will look at this race
In the next couple of days
That's assuming it takes place
Haydock is heavy at the moment
We backed the winner last year
He was the most exposed horse
Quite a different race this year
For reasons I will explain soon
No 7 year olds either this year
None come from the best trial race
Annoying as well
That 16 horses are entered
And we are offered just 3 places
All that might change
Had a good look at this already
Lots of these can be opposed
Beautiful Bet 3
Preparing to Shut this Down
Current Balance
Bet 1 - £100.00
Bet 2 - £60.00
Saturday 3.00 Man City v C Palace
Sunday 4.30 Liverpool v Man United
£160 down on staking
Man City's last 3 games W W W
Liverpools last 3 games W W W
So we have stakes to play with
Bet 1 is worth £117.74
Bet 2 is worth £38.41
Man City are 1.12 on Saturday
Playing at home to Crystal Palace
Man City beating Palace
Bet 1 would be worth £131.86
Bet 2 would be worth £39.56
We could then cash that in
Forget about Liverpool v Man U
That would bring in around £171
Minus current losing balance £160
That would mean a profit of £11
We could then shut the bet down
Draw Stumps and call this a draw
And take all the stress out of this
If we carry on
Liverpool beating Man Utd
Would mean Bet 1 stakes are £191.19
If we took that option
£191 would go on Man City
On a cold Tuesday night (18th)
Where they are away at Shef Utd
Liverpool then play on Thursday
When they are away at Wolves
So if we keep this bet going
Both sides have away fixtures
Playing against talented sides
In the middle of the next week
Man City then go to Tottenham
My view
We have had enough stress
The bet has been a roller-coaster
It's been an uphill battle all along
We have a chance on Saturday
To put this bet to bed and end it
Without having lost any money
We can kill this bet off Saturday
We don't need Liverpool to win
If we carry this bet on
For it to have any success
We need the following to win
1) Liverpool to beat Man Utd (Home)
2) Man City to beat Shef Utd (Away)
3) Liverpool to beat Wolves (Away)
4) Man City to beat Spurs (Away)
Dont know about you
My Gut feeling is to Get out now
Makes a lot of sense to end this
It could cost is big money later on
But so much has to go our way
Therefore
If Man City win on Saturday
When they are home to Crystal Palace
I feel we should take a minuscule profit
And end the bet declaring it a draw
Will make a decision tomorrow
Cheltenham
March 13th
Albert Bartlet Novice Hurdle
Thyme Hill 5/1 Fury Road 8/1 The Big Breakaway 12/1
Latest Exhibition 12/1 Asterion Forlonge 20/1 Enrilo 20/1
Monkfish 20/1 Longhouse Poet 25/1 Andy Dufresne 33/1
Lord Royal 33/1 Midnight Run 33/1 Redford Road 33/1
Festival D'Ex 25/1 Imperial Alcazar 25/1 Figaroc 33/1
Last year
We had a 50/1 shock winner
Uncharacteristically lightly raced
Happy to see that as a one-off
Rather than a changing trend
In fact the last 6 renewals
Won at 50/1 33/1 33/1 16/1 14/1 11/1
But only last year was inexplicable
With no confirmed entries
This is still a very raw field
The winner may not be in the betting
The obvious flaw right now
Would be about the 5 year olds
Horses aged 5
Have a weak 2-52 record in this race
The two that won
Had 5 and 15 career starts
Had 4 and 8 hurdle starts
Had 4 and 6 runs that season
None of the 5 year olds
That seem in contention to run
Look suitable on their profiles
THE BIG BREAKAWAY is one
He only has 2 runs both over hurdles
Even as expected he runs again
He will still be short of required runs
If you look at his sire Getaway
His Listed/Graded hurdle winners
Have yet to win past 2m 4f (0-14)
I would ignore that statistic myself
THYME HILL
6 runs
3 Hurdle runs
3 runs this year
Acceptable on the above
But that would be my bare minimum
His numbers are also a positive
But you can did up some problems
His trainer has commented
He is "not the biggest horse "
And has said he may not run again
So he may go there with 76 days off
Past renewals show
Horses aged 6
Under 7 career runs
Under 4 hurdle runs
Under 4 runs that year
Absent over 48 days
I find a 0-10 record in this race
Included losers at these prices
5/2 2/1 100/30 8/1 9/1 9/1 11/1
THYME HILL the 11th to try
Right now not falling over myself
To bet him with an unconvincing profile
He also comes from a Grade 1 Hurdle
That has not been the norm in this race
Only 1 from 24 that tried managed to win
Much will depend on the opposition
But if anything appeals more than him
I would not be afraid to oppose him
FURY ROAD
6 runs
3 Hurdle runs
3 runs this year
If he goes straight to Cheltenham
He shares the same profile as Thyme Hill
We know horses with it were only 0-10
There is a quirky sire stat here
Horses sired by Stowaway
Have won 3m Grade 1 races
But the same horse won most
He did that in soft smaller fields
If you look at the sires hurdlers
Running over 2m 5f or more
Listed and Graded Class
In fields of 12 or more
They have a 0-32 record so fat
FURY ROAD might yet fail that
I wouldn't worry about that stat
FURY ROAD comes from a Group 2
The vast majority of winners did this
What would be significant
FURY ROAD running again soon
If he comes out and wins beforehand
Then he would leapfrog Thyme Hill
That's what I need before I select him
LATEST EXHIBITION is a 7yo
5 career runs
3 Hurdle runs
3 Runs this year
Past 7yo winners
Career runs 4 8 15 11 5
Hurdle runs 4 5 4 4 3
Runs that year 4 4 7 3 3
All recent 7yo winners
Had more experience than him
The one horse he is a match to
Black Jack Ketchum the 2006 winner
He also shares the same sire as him
I would like more runs for him
But if he does go straight there
I would certainly consider him
Espescially from a Grade 2 hurdle
Especially sired by Oscar as well
The Sire Oscar
Produced the 2006 2013 2018 winners
His trainer has said
He may run in a Group 1 race
At the Dublin festival at Leopardstown
The extra experience would help
Even if we lose the Grade 2 statistic
That covers
The 4 main runners in the market
The only runners under 20/1 so far
No doubt others will emerge later
And recent history clearly tells us
Outsiders have to be respected
*********************************************************
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