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Posted Jan 12, 2020 - 01:44 AM:

Mathematician 3429

Sunday January 12th

4 Previews
0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet

No Official Bet



Today's Message


Final message of the week
Last Sunday was excellent
Much of this week was good
Wheels came off on Saturday

No recovery attempts today
Little chance of a bet today

The field sizes are so small
So few races are interesting
Corrupted by so few runners


Kelso 12.50
Southwell 1.45
Kelso 2.30
Southwell 2.50

This is 17 messages in 18 days
Think that showed on Saturday
So will be dropping a day soon
Probably on Monday or Tuesday

No official Bet

Small fields make it difficult
To know what to expect today
Not going to suggest any bets
Just leaving it as 4 selections
For anyone wanting an interest






Saturday's Summary

Message turned sour yesterday
Started out with nine previews
Two of these were non runners
Harry Senior bolted beforehand
Got withdrawn out at the start
The unraced filly in the seller
Did not run leaving 7 previews
These 7 finished L W L L L L P

BOBO MAC was an account bet
Held up to help get the distance
Looked to me like he didn't stay
But he didn't cope with the race
The pace quickened he did not
Our one single winner odds on
Shows how the bets struggled
No excuses just didn't fair well
Looking back since last Sunday
There have been 21 Previews
10 Winners 6 Losers 5 Placing
Been consistent and in control
Saturday is one different animal
This particular one had us beat


PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Kelso 12.50

5/2 Aloomomo, 4/1 Mah Mate Bob, 5/1 Mr McGo
7/1 Up Helly Aa King, 8/1 Charlie Snow Angel
9/1 Tanarpino, Well Above Par, 20/1 Ash Park
20/1 Knocknamona.

Handicap Chase 2m 5f

ALOOMOMO may be unsafe
Can see why he is favourite
His 2018 form does win this race
But that was a long time ago
It was for a different stable
He's raced just once since 2018
Similar race results suggest
Becuse he has 14 chase runs
May need another run this year

UP HELLY AA KING has 2 chase runs
He has also raced once this season
Want more recent runs than that
ASH PARK is a 12yo with an absence
KNOCKNAMONA is short of class
CHARLIE SNOW ANGEL is an 11yo
On a hat trick but career high mark

One of the topweights can win
TANARPINO has 1st weight here
Decided not to risk him with 12st
Party as he has a months absence
But mainly his best numbers
All came on good or faster ground
WELL ABOVE PAR has a chance

MAH MATE BOB is drifting a bit
Understandable going up in class
But on his Racing Post Ratings
His last run was his career best
Going to make him a saver bet
MR MCGO the number 1 choice
Producing the best last time figure

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet MR MCGO 7/2

£1.50 Win Bet MAH MATE BOB 11/2





Southwell 1.45

11/4 Jazz Hands, Silverturnstogold
3/1 Directory, 4/1 Robero, 10/1 Sea Fox
14/1 Momtalik.

8f Handicap

Small field

Topweight and bottomweight
May be the best strategy here

DIRECTORY is topweight
JAZZ HANDS is bottomweight

Both have one thing in common
On their Racing Post Ratings
They did career bests last time

DIRECTORY has to be a positive
With a career best just 5 days ago
Shortest absence class horse

JAZZ HANDS is bottomweight
Exposed 4 year old with 22 runs
Career best R.Post Rating only 69
I was initially sceptical about him
Feeling he may lack the class here

But when you think about it
His last 2 runs were career bests
He has just seemed to come right
He has recent runs and momentum
And gets 18lbs off the topweight

I am shortlist both
May not be a two horse race
But felt they had most positives

SEA FOX has no form here before
Has had 2 regressive runs in a row
ROBERO the oldest horse aged 8

SILVERTURNSGOLD is up in trip
He is the only horse doing this
He also has a 44 day absence
All his rivals run within 2 weeks
Hoping thats enough to beat him
Playing the race this way

Selection

£7 Win Bet JAZZ HANDS 11/4

£3 Win Bet DIRECTORY 5/2





Kelso 2.30

5/4 Mymilan, 8/1 Kings Eclipse
8/1 Lowanbehold 9/1 Multipede, Purcell's Bridge
10/1 Classical Milano, Katalystic, Westend Theatre

Handicap Chase 2m 7f

MYMILAN has been gambled
He is a strongly backed favourite
Clearly better is expected from him
And no surprise if he does win this
But he fails the following statistic

January and February
Handicap Chases
Run over 2m 7f +
Any Class of race
Horses from 2m chases
Have a 0-71 record in them
MYMILAN shares this profile

MYMILAN only has 1 Chase run
He won on his chasing debut

Doubts were raised about the race
They jumped only 5 fences that day
Some taken out because of low sun

Going to oppose him
Because he fails this 0-71 stat
Not there are many safe alternatives

PURCELLS BEIDGE is 13 years old
His jockey has a 0-62 career record
He does not look nearly safe enough
LOWANBEHOLD another 13 year old
Very exposed and an unlikely winner
MULTIPEDE pulled up last time out
Clearly suffered from the bounce
Hard to know what to expect here
May win but not a safe each way bet

CLASSIC MILANO has topweight
Fully effective in these races
Despite unseating last time over 4f
I can match him to one winner
But topweight and an absence
Gives him a lot to prove in this

KATALYSTIC is a 9yo
Unexposed with excuses last time
Don't like the combination much
Having 78 days off and a big weight

KINGS ECLIPSE wins on 2018 form
But from a small low scoring stable
It's asking him a lot on current form
For him to defy a rating of 100 here

Shortlist

WESTEND THEATRE won last time
Bottomweight in a similar handicap
No particular reason why he can't win
Not particularly rich in Class
But hard to argue he is not well treated

Selection

WESTEND THEATRE 11/2 - 6/1

Each Way




Southwell 2.50

9/4 Oblate, 11/4 Motahassen, 3/1 Fox Shinji
6/1 Baron Run, 10/1 French Twist, 12/1 Velvet Vision
33/1 Tavener.

8f Handicap

There are only 2 horses
That I could shortlist here
These are the topweights

MOTAHASSEN
OBLATE

The rest have flaws

TAVENER is outclassed
FRENCH TWIST is running slow

FOX SHINJI only has 4 runs
Looked at all similar 8f races
Horses aged 4
Under 4 career starts
Have a 1-41 record in them
That winner was absent 7 days
FOX SHINJI has 83 days off
Not for me coming up from 6f
BARON RUN a 10yo absent 246 days

VELVET VISION a filly down 4f
Has plenty to prove doing that
New trainer and has been backed
So perhaps She could be a threat
Her profile is very beatable though

MOTAHASSEN is a positive
Clearly bounced on his last run
OBLATE is a 4 year old filly
Ran both individual profiles
MOTAHASSEN a marginal edge

Selection

Small Stakes

MOTAHASSEN 5/2

Win Bet





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Cheltenham

Albert Bartlett Statistics today

Next day there is a message
Will have a play with the race
See if anything is interesting


Road to Cheltenham

Lydia Hislop

This is a video series
On the Racingtv.com website
Lydia Hislop alongside a guest
Usually one of the big jockeys

This was recommended to me
It is getting some rave reviews
Can help but agree about them

What a wife Lydia would make
The first thing in the morning
The last thing before bedtime
She would be talking Racing

The latest guest Paddy Mullins
So engaging and full of insight
Some of the content this week
Was about the Champion Hurdle

When asked
The Willie Mullins pecking order

KLASSICAL DREAM No 1 if soft
SHARJAH No 1 if good or better
SALDIER he is still unclear about
Could yet be the best or worst

He was refreshingly direct too
PENTLAND HILLS he dismissed
Does not want to bet a 5 year old
Does not think his form is enough
Feel the same about him myself




Beautiful Bet 3


Tottenham 0-1 Liverpool


Liverpool ever reliable
Came good again yesterday

Manchester City in action today
When playing away at Aston Villa
Feel we badly need this victory

What victory could mean today
We would just be 2 games away
From getting back all our losses
It could all come to next Sunday
Liverpool home to Man United

If we manage to get stakes back
It might be a good time to bail out
We will soon be entering the time
When Liverpool seal the League
They will not need to win games
Intensity will inevitably drop then
Players will no doubt be rested
Manchester City will do the same
Prioritising the Champions League

I had far great ambitions with this
Than to just get our stakes back
But if an opportunity comes along
To call stumps and refund losses
This may be a perfect time to stop



Ante Post

Newbury February 8th

Betfair Hurdle

Not So Sleepy 7/1 Eldorado Allen 8/1
Buildmeupbuttercup 12/1 Fred 12/1 Highly Prized 12/1
Thebannerkingrebel 12/1 Tiger Tap Tap 12/1 Janidil 14/1
Mack The Man 14/1 Mill Green 14/1 Bullionaire 16/1
Ciel De Neige 16/1 Fusil Raffles 16/1 Lightly Squeeze 16/1
Never Adapt 16/1 Pic D'orhy 16/1 Stolen Silver 16/1
Aramon 20/1 Countister 20/1 Flegmatik 20/1 Gumball 20/1
Harambe 20/1 Howling Milan 20/1 Monsieur Lecoq 20/1
Neff 20/1 Pacify 20/1 Pentland Hills 20/1 Quoi de Neuf 20/1
Sceau Royal 20/1 Sir Valentine 20/1 Eglantine du Seuil 25/1
Ecco 25/1 Elgin 25/1 Elixir de Nutz 25/1 Miranda 25/1
Oakley 25/1 Saglawy 25/1 Sofia's Rock 25/1 Vienna Court 25/1
Tamaroc Du Mathan 25/1 The Con Man 25/1 Chti Balko 25/1
Whoshotthesheriff 25/1 Didtheyleaveuoutto 33/1 Distingo 33/1
Mister Blue Sky 33/1 Touchthesoul 33/1 Antunes 40/1
Magic Dancer 40/1 Nelson River 40/1 Prudhomme 40/1
Zanza 40/1 Aiguille Rouge 50/1 Colonel Custard 50/1
Remiluc 50/1 Logan Rocks 66/1


First early look at this race

Ante Post Favourite

NOT SO SLEEPY 7/1

Mentioned him recently
Possible Champion Hurdle outsider
But this is an entirely different test
And he fails a powerful age statistic

Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 0-103 record since 2005

The last 13 winners
Were aged either 5 or 6 years old

NOT SO SLEEPY is an 8 year old

Two fancied in the ante post market
Who fail the same 0-103 age statistics

THEBANNERKINGREBEL
HIGHLY PRIZED

Recent winners hurdle runs
3 6 3 3 3 3 8 10 4

Horses with over 10 hurdle runs
Have a 0-66 record since 2005

Those aged 5-6 failing this are
Monsieur Lecoq 12 hurdle runs
Gumball 14 hurdle runs

Limited right now
To what I can do in this race
As there is plenty of time still
For horses to have another race
I wont be selecting any horse
Who has only had 1 run this season
But no point listing those horses now
As they could run again beforehand

PENTLAND HILLS looks unsafe
He will end up with a big weight
No 5yo has won rated as high as him
Even if he runs which I would doubt

The Most recent winners
Had the following Official Ratings

141 131 135 137 132 134 149 151 134 135

I would question the horses
Who are rated under 130 right now
Who may well lack the required class

Some of the more interesting horses

ELDORADO ALLEN 8/1

He needs another run this year
And horses from handicap hurdles
Have a bad record aside from last year

BUILDMEUPBUTTERCUP 12/1

Another from a Handicap Hurdle
My worry would be not running
Willie Mullins has a low profile
Since 2005 He is 0-13 in the race
I don't see him as a safe trainer

TIGER TAP TAP from the same yard
Probably wont run or be selected
JANIDIL another Mullins runner
Who may not even be going here
CIEL DE NEIGE is also from Mullins
You'd have to be sure he will race

MAC THE MAN is on a hat trick
But not sure you want any horse
In this race with 2 handicap wins
Especially not from a big stable

FUSIL RAFFLES pulled up last time
You'd want him out beforehand
Putting up a serious performance

FRED 12/1 could be interesting

Far too much we can not know yet

But the picture will soon be clearer




Cheltenham

March 13th

Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle

Race Statistics

Thyme Hill 5/1 Fury Road 8/1 The Big Breakaway 12/1
Latest Exhibition 12/1 Asterion Forlonge 20/1 Enrilo 20/1
Monkfish 20/1 Longhouse Poet 25/1 Andy Dufresne 33/1
Lord Royal 33/1 Midnight Run 33/1 Redford Road 33/1
Festival D'Ex 25/1 Imperial Alcazar 25/1 Figaroc 33/1


Past winners
Number of Hurdle runs
2 4 7 15 6 4 6 3 3 14 4 3 4 3 4

Past winners
Number runs that year
2 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 9 4 3 4 3 5

Combined Hurdle & Bumper runs
3 4 7 17 8 5 8 4 5 15 6 8 8 5 4

Horses aged 5
Have a weak 2-52 record in this race
One of the 5yo winners was lucky
The leaders went off far too quickly
The other very fit and experienced

The only two winners aged 5
Had 4 and 8 hurdle races
Had 4 and 7 runs this season

Only 1 past winner was aged 8

The longest absent winner of this
Won back in 2006 with 97 days off
That winner (Black Jack Ketchum)

Horses that ran within 26 days
Have a 0-35 record in this race

Horses aged 5-6-7
Coming from Non Graded races
Have a 0-104 record

Last time out finishing positions
Were 2 3 1 2 1 4 2 1 2 3 1 1 2 1 1
Only 1 horse has won this race
Beaten over 13 lengths last time
He came from a Grade 1 hurdle

Cheltenham Grade 1 Novice Hurdles
Every and any distance since 1997
Horses from Handicap Hurdles are 1-103
Those aged 4-5-6-7 are 0-96

He comes from a Grade 1 Hurdle
Have a modest 1-24 record in this
Horses from Grade 2 hurdles
Were better winning 9 past renewals

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