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Mathematician 3247

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Mathematician 3247

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Mathematician 3247

Thursday June 13th

4 Races Discussed
0 Account Bet
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Betting The Message

Sodden conditions today
With Soft and Heavy ground

Uttoxeter has been abandoned
Haydock has been abandoned

Following several non runners
Left now with just 4 previews
Having bailed out of 2 others

Newbury 2.00
Newbury 2.30
Newbury 3.00
Nottingham 3.45

I think we have to abandon plans
To have a bet on either account

There are significant disruptions

The first two previews
The opening 2 races at Newbury
Could easily provide winners
After non runners and price changes
I've had to combine them together

Newbury 2.00 BAADIRR 9/4
Newbury 2.30 QAMKA 11/8

Each Way Double

Really didn't want to do that
After yesterdays each way double

One of the best contenders
For a possible bet on the account

Nottingham 3.45
GLOBAL MELODY 9/2
Each Way

Non runners have spoilt this
Now we only have 7 runners
So there are only 2 places

Despite that
Still making this my best bet

Today's Best Bet

Nottingham 3.45

GLOBAL MELODY 4/1

Each Way

1/4 the odds a place

Only 2 Places

It is all a bit too chaotic today
Anyone's guess what may happen
With more non runners later on

Think we just need to bail out
Put it down as a very random day

Personally I am having 2 bets
An each way single in the 2pm
Rather than the each way double

I am also betting Global Melody
Because he has a fitness edge

Monday's Review

Went for safety first yesterday
Maybe too negative a strategy
Each Way double went down
The last refuge of the coward
The knife twisted in a bit more
As a winner and 4th hurts more
Didn't offer too much yesterday
From the four races discussed
We got two right and two wrong
But came out losing from them

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Newbury 2.00

3/1 Gold Souk, 4/1 Baadirr, 5/1 King's View
5/1 Mottrib, 10/1 Rocket Dancer, 14/1 Swinley Forest
16/1 Bealach, 20/1 Glorious Return
100/1 Made Guy.

6f Maiden

GOLD SOUK is drawn 10 of 10

6f Newbury Maidens
Under 13 runners
The last 22 years since 1997
Unraced 2 year olds
Drawn 10 or higher
Have a miserable 1-98 record

On that draw stat
GOLD SOUK has his work cut out

The problem today
Non runners could make the difference
If the field is smaller his chance increased

What interests me about this 1-98 statistic
BAADIRR fails it on his debut here last time
He was drawn 10 on his debut here last time

I like the symmetry of that
BAADIRR inconvenienced last time
GOLD SOUK has the same problem today

BAADIRR each way at 11/4
Could be the sensible bet here

If you run some sire stats
Unraced 2 year olds
Running over 6f or more
On Soft and Heavy ground

Dark Angel's runners are 0-54
KINGS VIEW 6/1 is the 55th to try
That Breeding stat puts me off him

If you look at the sire Camacho
His runners are 0-12 doing this
GLORIOUS RETURN tries to be the 1st
SWINLEY FOREST is sired by Ivawood
Who hasn't had a winner fto on soft over 6f +

There are unknown dangers
MOTTRIB on his debut could be the one
But I would take the view
With a decent run behind him
From a bad draw on his debut
BAADIRR with expected improvement
Should be difficult to beat here
And should be expected to at least place

Selection

Option 1

BAADIRR 5/2

Each Way

Not available in the offices
But should be available on Betfair

Option 2

Newbury 2.00 BAADIRR 9/4
Newbury 2.30 QAMKA 11/8

Each Way Double

I prefer Option 1
But as not everyone can get on
I will go with Option 2 instead

Newbury 2.30

11/8 Qamka, 5/2 To The Moon, 10/1 Beauty Of Deira
10/1 Narak, 14/1 Wild Cat, 16/1 Forbidden Dance
16/1 Kingslady, 20/1 Galileo Jade, 25/1 Pearl Jam
50/1 Eventura,

Fillies Maiden over 8f

The market is hinting
This could be a match

QAMKA - Roger Varian

TO THE MOON - John Gosden

May not be as simple as that
But little market support for the rest

TO THE MOON has that extra run
But beaten at odds on on his 3yo debut
Watching the video's of both horses
QAMKA looked a decent sized filly
TO THE MOON looks a bit undersized
Made me wonder if she had trained on
That is only an assumption
But given their size and their debuts
QAMKA looked the safer choice of the pair

Selection

OAMKA 11/8

Win Bet
or
Each Way Double

Newbury 3.00

4/5 Terebellum, 3/1 Antonia De Vega
4/1 Star Terms, 12/1 Lastochka, 16/1 Mannaal
40/1 Patchouli.

The Abingdon Stakes

Listed race for 3yo fillies over 10f

TEREBELLUM is a shade of odds on
Impressive winning her only race
Pretty smart Racing Post Rating
Understandable that she is favourite

If you look at this race
Past winners since 2003

Had 2-9 career starts
Ran within 6 weeks
Ran over 9f or more last time
Came from a Non Handicap

No horse has won this race
Having raced just once before
Since 2002 when Succinct won

TEREBELLUM has this problem
She could easily overcome this
Given her quality and a small field

But based on the past renewals
STAR TERMS looks a better fit
She has had 9 career starts
That could be a decent advantage
When you consider how soft it is
The race she comes from a Newbury
Produced last years winner of this

Another reason I like her chance
One of her main market rivals
ANTONIA DE VEGA has 248 days off

June and July
Listed and Group races
Run for 3 year old fillies
Any distance

83 of these races
83 winners all ran within 59 days

Horses absent over 59 days
Return a 0-86 record since 2004
None have won with long absences
ANTONIA DE VEGA fails this 0-86 record

STAR TERMS
Looks a far safer bet
Than a horse with a long absence
This leads to two possible strategies

Option 1
STAR TERMS 4/1
Each Way
1/4 the odds 2 places

Option 2

£5 Win STAR TERMS 4/1
£5 Win TEREBELLUM 10/11

Happy with either option

If we side with Option 2

STAR TERMS becomes 6/4
Money back if the odds on fav wins
And the only horses that can beat us
Are a long absent horse failing a 0-86 stat
And a couple of outsiders

One potential flaw
What if STAR TERMS doesn't stay
Said to have a "sprinters physique"
What if she didn't stay 10f last time out
LASTOCHKA was not far behind her
She was staying on and it was her 3yo debut
Maybe she might progress past her

This leads me to option 3
Which is quite an ugly staked bet
But allows us two savers
And the chance of a decent winner

Final Selection

£4 Win Bet LASTOCHKA 11/1

£4 Win Bet TEREBELLUM 4/5

£2 Win Bet STAR TERMS 4/1

Nottingham 3.45

7/2 Gunnison, 5/1 Cupid's Arrow, 11/2 Global Melody
6/1 Our Charlie Brown, 6/1 Stallone, 7/1 Bayards Cove
20/1 Cardaw Lily.

6f Handicap
Horses rated 66

One of the interesting things
We have 3 horses aged 6 here
Taking on older horses

GUNNISON
STALLONE
TIZWOTITIZ

122 Similar races show
Horses aged 3
Won 15 of 122 races

They do slightly underperform in them
None of the 15 won on soft ground
On this ground on this track
I would not trust a 3yo in this
GUNNISON only has 3 runs anyway

Class 6 Handicaps
Run at any time of year
Over 6 furlongs

Horses aged 3
Under 4 career starts
Taking on older horses
Return a modest 5-114 record
Whne the ground was softer than good
All 44 that tried were beaten
GUNNISON is the 45th to try

STALLONE may be a better option
He has been backed to win this race
I would see him as a dangerous threat
But on bad ground not that convinced

April May June
6f Handicaps in Class 6
Run on ground softer than good
Horses aged 3
Running this season
Under 7 career starts
Have a 0-39 record in these months
STALLONE has this profile

FLORA TRISTAN is a 4yo filly
She's raced just once this season

BAYARDS COVE has the same problem
Filly aged 4 with just 1 run since Aug 2018

CARDAW LILY another 4yo filly
She is absent far too long

OUR CHARLIE BROWN is a 5yo
Not yet hit form in 3 races this year
His Numbers have dropped recently
His 6f form is far more uncertain
DUBAI EXPRESS is a mare
She is up in trip with low numbers
Sold cheaply has done nothing in a while

CUPIDS ARROW has a chance

GLOBAL MELODY is a 4yo
He had a good run just 2 days ago
Horses aged 4
Running within 4 days
Have an excellent 6-15 record
Ran well on soft just 2 days ago
That was in a better race than this
Win lose or draw
That 2 day absence seals it for me

Selection

GLOBAL MELODY 9/2

Each Way

Only 2 Places
1/4 the odds a place

FUTURE BETTING ANGLES

Royal Ascot

65mm of rain landed on Ascot
The ground is said to be softer

Far too early to assume anything
It could easily dry out quite a lot
But if there is a soft ground Ascot
The following statistic is interesting

Royal Ascot
Good to Soft or worse
Horses aged 5 or more
Absent more than 42 days
Have a 1-76 record

The only winner Commissioned 2016
Who won the 2m 5f Queen Alexander

No others aged 5 or more
Have won absent more than 6 weeks

Many will fail this stat next week
If the ground is officially softer

One of these
Blue Point 3/1 in the Kings Stand
Currently 3/1 behing Battash 9/4
Blue Point is a 5yo absent 80 days
He will fail this angle if it is softer
So will the 5th favourite Imprimis

The flaw in this particular statistic
Relies on accurate going descriptions
We know these are often unreliable

Would not fully commit to this angle
But would use it as an issue raiser
Hard for older types to defy absences
If the ground is softer at this meeting

Ascot

Tuesday 18th June

Queen Anne Stakes

Mustashry 4/1 Le Brivido 4/1 Barney Roy 8/1
Laurens 8/1 Accidental Agent 10/1 Lord Glitters 12/1
Hazapour 14/1 Olmedo 16/1 I Can Fly 25/1
Matterhorn 33/1 One Master 33/1 Romanised 33/1
Imaging 33/1 Mythical Magic 40/1 Stormy Atlantic 40/1
Dream Castle 50/1 Magical 50/1 Sharja Bridge 66/1
Beat The Bank 66/1

Group 1

Older horses
Run over a Mile
18 horses left in the race

Number of Career runs

27 Stormy Atlantic
21 Lord Glitters
18 Mustashry
17 Accidental Agent
16 I Can Fly
16 Beat The Bank
15 Dream Castle
15 Magical
12 Laurens
12 Sharja Bridge
12 Matterhorn
11 One Master
11 Romanised
10 Mythical Magic
9 Barney Roy
9 Olmedo
8 Hazapour
7 Le Brivido

There may be a small draw bias
Horses drawn 6-11 perform best

Past winners
Had the following career starts

13 11 11 14 8 7 6 6 13
13 17 14 9 11 10 5 9 9

Horses with over 17 runs
Have a 0-42 record since 1997

MUSTASHRY fails this
He has now had 18 career starts
Won the Lockinge and second favourite
But his exposure and age is a concern
MUSTASHRY is a 6 year old

The last winner aged 6 or older
Was a long way back in 1976
All 44 since 1997 were beaten
Several came 2nd or 3rd to be fair
But the record is pretty dismal
MUSTASHRY aged 6 with 18 runs
Should not be my selection
Yes he won the Lockinge Stakes
But there is such a draw bias there
He benefited and fancied others didn't
He is also better on faster ground
If the ground is slow it hurts him

STORMY ATLANTIC is exposed

LORD GLITTERS is an exposed 6yo
We know now have won since 1976

BEAT THE BANK is unlikely to race
MAGICAL another doubtful runner
ONE MASTER is an older mare
With 1 run this year not safe enough

ACCIDENTAL AGENT won this last year
Older and more exposed this season
He has had only 1 prep run this year
Last year he had 2 and faster ground
When he won this race last year
It was his sires first pattern race winner
With a horse running over a mile or more
None from his sire have won at 8f on softer
In a Class 2 race or higher so far
So if it is soft he may not appreciate that
It would worry me a horse so exposed
Has raced just once since he was a 3yo

HAZARPOUR is a 4yo with 8 runs
Not proven in this class over a mile
The question is will a mile be enough
Can he win a Group 1 over a mile

LAURENS is a 4yo filly

Royal Ascot
Group 1 races since 2007
Fillies aged 4
Have a 1-39 record
Only Estimate did it in the Gold Cup
Overall they have not scored well

If the ground was soft
The Mile trip would be testing enough
But what bothers me more as a filly
Most of her rivals have 2 + recent runs
LAURENS only has the 1 run this season
Thats probably going to be enough
To put me off selecting him to win

I CAN FLY is another 4yo filly
Shes pretty exposed with 16 runs
Has no Group 1 winning form
Hard to see her being the selection

OLMEDO has no form outside France
Has won a French 2000 Guineas
But a mile here is a different proposition
Poor breeding stats over 8f in Group races

BARNEY ROY is a 5yo
Won the St James Palace in 2017
Did not race in 2018 he went to stud
But is now back in 2019 with 2 warm up races
One concern is the sire Excelebration
The only Group winner he has over 8f
Was Barney Roy in the said St James Palace
The ground turning soft would be a worry
On good faster ground not ruled out

LE BRIVIDO has 7 runs
I would see that as acceptable
Despite being the least experienced

Obvious question mark
Given this is Aidan O'Briens Number 1
Can he beat out of the first 3

Not sure, I would want a good draw
He had a horrible draw in the Lockinge
His career best Racing Post Rating
Came over 8f on soft in France
Might relax some worried about stamina

He's certainly a more likely winner
Than Mustashry on his age and profile
That would be magnified on softer ground
Which would count against Barney Roy
Would also count against Laurens as well
LE BRIVIDO is shortlistable right now

Need to know the draw and ground
But this has the smell of a race
That could offer an each way bet

LE BRIVIDO could be that bet
There is some media negativity here
Which is partially based on his numbers
Several admittedly are rated higher
But they have not factored in 2 things
He should have the most improvement
He is also trained by the best

Provisional Selection

LE BRIVIDO 4/1

Each Way

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