I think we have to abandon plans To have a bet on either account
There are significant disruptions
The first two previews The opening 2 races at Newbury Could easily provide winners After non runners and price changes I've had to combine them together
Newbury 2.00 BAADIRR 9/4 Newbury 2.30 QAMKA 11/8
Each Way Double
Really didn't want to do that After yesterdays each way double
One of the best contenders For a possible bet on the account
Nottingham 3.45 GLOBAL MELODY 9/2 Each Way
Non runners have spoilt this Now we only have 7 runners So there are only 2 places
Despite that Still making this my best bet
Today's Best Bet
Nottingham 3.45
GLOBAL MELODY 4/1
Each Way
1/4 the odds a place
Only 2 Places
It is all a bit too chaotic today Anyone's guess what may happen With more non runners later on
Think we just need to bail out Put it down as a very random day
Personally I am having 2 bets An each way single in the 2pm Rather than the each way double
I am also betting Global Melody Because he has a fitness edge
Monday's Review
Went for safety first yesterday Maybe too negative a strategy Each Way double went down The last refuge of the coward The knife twisted in a bit more As a winner and 4th hurts more Didn't offer too much yesterday From the four races discussed We got two right and two wrong But came out losing from them
6f Newbury Maidens Under 13 runners The last 22 years since 1997 Unraced 2 year olds Drawn 10 or higher Have a miserable 1-98 record
On that draw stat GOLD SOUK has his work cut out
The problem today Non runners could make the difference If the field is smaller his chance increased
What interests me about this 1-98 statistic BAADIRR fails it on his debut here last time He was drawn 10 on his debut here last time
I like the symmetry of that BAADIRR inconvenienced last time GOLD SOUK has the same problem today
BAADIRR each way at 11/4 Could be the sensible bet here
If you run some sire stats Unraced 2 year olds Running over 6f or more On Soft and Heavy ground
Dark Angel's runners are 0-54 KINGS VIEW 6/1 is the 55th to try That Breeding stat puts me off him
If you look at the sire Camacho His runners are 0-12 doing this GLORIOUS RETURN tries to be the 1st SWINLEY FOREST is sired by Ivawood Who hasn't had a winner fto on soft over 6f +
There are unknown dangers MOTTRIB on his debut could be the one But I would take the view With a decent run behind him From a bad draw on his debut BAADIRR with expected improvement Should be difficult to beat here And should be expected to at least place
Selection
Option 1
BAADIRR 5/2
Each Way
Not available in the offices But should be available on Betfair
Option 2
Newbury 2.00 BAADIRR 9/4 Newbury 2.30 QAMKA 11/8
Each Way Double
I prefer Option 1 But as not everyone can get on I will go with Option 2 instead
Newbury 2.30
11/8 Qamka, 5/2 To The Moon, 10/1 Beauty Of Deira 10/1 Narak, 14/1 Wild Cat, 16/1 Forbidden Dance 16/1 Kingslady, 20/1 Galileo Jade, 25/1 Pearl Jam 50/1 Eventura,
Fillies Maiden over 8f
The market is hinting This could be a match
QAMKA - Roger Varian
TO THE MOON - John Gosden
May not be as simple as that But little market support for the rest
TO THE MOON has that extra run But beaten at odds on on his 3yo debut Watching the video's of both horses QAMKA looked a decent sized filly TO THE MOON looks a bit undersized Made me wonder if she had trained on That is only an assumption But given their size and their debuts QAMKA looked the safer choice of the pair
Selection
OAMKA 11/8
Win Bet or Each Way Double
Newbury 3.00
4/5 Terebellum, 3/1 Antonia De Vega 4/1 Star Terms, 12/1 Lastochka, 16/1 Mannaal 40/1 Patchouli.
The Abingdon Stakes
Listed race for 3yo fillies over 10f
TEREBELLUM is a shade of odds on Impressive winning her only race Pretty smart Racing Post Rating Understandable that she is favourite
If you look at this race Past winners since 2003
Had 2-9 career starts Ran within 6 weeks Ran over 9f or more last time Came from a Non Handicap
No horse has won this race Having raced just once before Since 2002 when Succinct won
TEREBELLUM has this problem She could easily overcome this Given her quality and a small field
But based on the past renewals STAR TERMS looks a better fit She has had 9 career starts That could be a decent advantage When you consider how soft it is The race she comes from a Newbury Produced last years winner of this
Another reason I like her chance One of her main market rivals ANTONIA DE VEGA has 248 days off
June and July Listed and Group races Run for 3 year old fillies Any distance
83 of these races 83 winners all ran within 59 days
Horses absent over 59 days Return a 0-86 record since 2004 None have won with long absences ANTONIA DE VEGA fails this 0-86 record
STAR TERMS Looks a far safer bet Than a horse with a long absence This leads to two possible strategies
Option 1 STAR TERMS 4/1 Each Way 1/4 the odds 2 places
Option 2
£5 Win STAR TERMS 4/1 £5 Win TEREBELLUM 10/11
Happy with either option
If we side with Option 2
STAR TERMS becomes 6/4 Money back if the odds on fav wins And the only horses that can beat us Are a long absent horse failing a 0-86 stat And a couple of outsiders
One potential flaw What if STAR TERMS doesn't stay Said to have a "sprinters physique" What if she didn't stay 10f last time out LASTOCHKA was not far behind her She was staying on and it was her 3yo debut Maybe she might progress past her
This leads me to option 3 Which is quite an ugly staked bet But allows us two savers And the chance of a decent winner
Final Selection
£4 Win Bet LASTOCHKA 11/1
£4 Win Bet TEREBELLUM 4/5
£2 Win Bet STAR TERMS 4/1
Nottingham 3.45
7/2 Gunnison, 5/1 Cupid's Arrow, 11/2 Global Melody 6/1 Our Charlie Brown, 6/1 Stallone, 7/1 Bayards Cove 20/1 Cardaw Lily.
6f Handicap Horses rated 66
One of the interesting things We have 3 horses aged 6 here Taking on older horses
GUNNISON STALLONE TIZWOTITIZ
122 Similar races show Horses aged 3 Won 15 of 122 races
They do slightly underperform in them None of the 15 won on soft ground On this ground on this track I would not trust a 3yo in this GUNNISON only has 3 runs anyway
Class 6 Handicaps Run at any time of year Over 6 furlongs
Horses aged 3 Under 4 career starts Taking on older horses Return a modest 5-114 record Whne the ground was softer than good All 44 that tried were beaten GUNNISON is the 45th to try
STALLONE may be a better option He has been backed to win this race I would see him as a dangerous threat But on bad ground not that convinced
April May June 6f Handicaps in Class 6 Run on ground softer than good Horses aged 3 Running this season Under 7 career starts Have a 0-39 record in these months STALLONE has this profile
FLORA TRISTAN is a 4yo filly She's raced just once this season
BAYARDS COVE has the same problem Filly aged 4 with just 1 run since Aug 2018
CARDAW LILY another 4yo filly She is absent far too long
OUR CHARLIE BROWN is a 5yo Not yet hit form in 3 races this year His Numbers have dropped recently His 6f form is far more uncertain DUBAI EXPRESS is a mare She is up in trip with low numbers Sold cheaply has done nothing in a while
CUPIDS ARROW has a chance
GLOBAL MELODY is a 4yo He had a good run just 2 days ago Horses aged 4 Running within 4 days Have an excellent 6-15 record Ran well on soft just 2 days ago That was in a better race than this Win lose or draw That 2 day absence seals it for me
Selection
GLOBAL MELODY 9/2
Each Way
Only 2 Places 1/4 the odds a place
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Royal Ascot
65mm of rain landed on Ascot The ground is said to be softer
Far too early to assume anything It could easily dry out quite a lot But if there is a soft ground Ascot The following statistic is interesting
Royal Ascot Good to Soft or worse Horses aged 5 or more Absent more than 42 days Have a 1-76 record
The only winner Commissioned 2016 Who won the 2m 5f Queen Alexander
No others aged 5 or more Have won absent more than 6 weeks
Many will fail this stat next week If the ground is officially softer
One of these Blue Point 3/1 in the Kings Stand Currently 3/1 behing Battash 9/4 Blue Point is a 5yo absent 80 days He will fail this angle if it is softer So will the 5th favourite Imprimis
The flaw in this particular statistic Relies on accurate going descriptions We know these are often unreliable
Would not fully commit to this angle But would use it as an issue raiser Hard for older types to defy absences If the ground is softer at this meeting
Ascot
Tuesday 18th June
Queen Anne Stakes
Mustashry 4/1 Le Brivido 4/1 Barney Roy 8/1 Laurens 8/1 Accidental Agent 10/1 Lord Glitters 12/1 Hazapour 14/1 Olmedo 16/1 I Can Fly 25/1 Matterhorn 33/1 One Master 33/1 Romanised 33/1 Imaging 33/1 Mythical Magic 40/1 Stormy Atlantic 40/1 Dream Castle 50/1 Magical 50/1 Sharja Bridge 66/1 Beat The Bank 66/1
Group 1
Older horses Run over a Mile 18 horses left in the race
Number of Career runs
27 Stormy Atlantic 21 Lord Glitters 18 Mustashry 17 Accidental Agent 16 I Can Fly 16 Beat The Bank 15 Dream Castle 15 Magical 12 Laurens 12 Sharja Bridge 12 Matterhorn 11 One Master 11 Romanised 10 Mythical Magic 9 Barney Roy 9 Olmedo 8 Hazapour 7 Le Brivido
There may be a small draw bias Horses drawn 6-11 perform best
Past winners Had the following career starts
13 11 11 14 8 7 6 6 13 13 17 14 9 11 10 5 9 9
Horses with over 17 runs Have a 0-42 record since 1997
MUSTASHRY fails this He has now had 18 career starts Won the Lockinge and second favourite But his exposure and age is a concern MUSTASHRY is a 6 year old
The last winner aged 6 or older Was a long way back in 1976 All 44 since 1997 were beaten Several came 2nd or 3rd to be fair But the record is pretty dismal MUSTASHRY aged 6 with 18 runs Should not be my selection Yes he won the Lockinge Stakes But there is such a draw bias there He benefited and fancied others didn't He is also better on faster ground If the ground is slow it hurts him
STORMY ATLANTIC is exposed
LORD GLITTERS is an exposed 6yo We know now have won since 1976
BEAT THE BANK is unlikely to race MAGICAL another doubtful runner ONE MASTER is an older mare With 1 run this year not safe enough
ACCIDENTAL AGENT won this last year Older and more exposed this season He has had only 1 prep run this year Last year he had 2 and faster ground When he won this race last year It was his sires first pattern race winner With a horse running over a mile or more None from his sire have won at 8f on softer In a Class 2 race or higher so far So if it is soft he may not appreciate that It would worry me a horse so exposed Has raced just once since he was a 3yo
HAZARPOUR is a 4yo with 8 runs Not proven in this class over a mile The question is will a mile be enough Can he win a Group 1 over a mile
LAURENS is a 4yo filly
Royal Ascot Group 1 races since 2007 Fillies aged 4 Have a 1-39 record Only Estimate did it in the Gold Cup Overall they have not scored well
If the ground was soft The Mile trip would be testing enough But what bothers me more as a filly Most of her rivals have 2 + recent runs LAURENS only has the 1 run this season Thats probably going to be enough To put me off selecting him to win
I CAN FLY is another 4yo filly Shes pretty exposed with 16 runs Has no Group 1 winning form Hard to see her being the selection
OLMEDO has no form outside France Has won a French 2000 Guineas But a mile here is a different proposition Poor breeding stats over 8f in Group races
BARNEY ROY is a 5yo Won the St James Palace in 2017 Did not race in 2018 he went to stud But is now back in 2019 with 2 warm up races One concern is the sire Excelebration The only Group winner he has over 8f Was Barney Roy in the said St James Palace The ground turning soft would be a worry On good faster ground not ruled out
LE BRIVIDO has 7 runs I would see that as acceptable Despite being the least experienced
Obvious question mark Given this is Aidan O'Briens Number 1 Can he beat out of the first 3
Not sure, I would want a good draw He had a horrible draw in the Lockinge His career best Racing Post Rating Came over 8f on soft in France Might relax some worried about stamina
He's certainly a more likely winner Than Mustashry on his age and profile That would be magnified on softer ground Which would count against Barney Roy Would also count against Laurens as well LE BRIVIDO is shortlistable right now
Need to know the draw and ground But this has the smell of a race That could offer an each way bet
LE BRIVIDO could be that bet There is some media negativity here Which is partially based on his numbers Several admittedly are rated higher But they have not factored in 2 things He should have the most improvement He is also trained by the best
Comments on Mathematician 3247
Senior Member
Usergroup: Moderators
Joined: Nov 05, 2003
Total Topics: 6449
Total Comments: 15225
Posted Jun 13, 2019 - 02:30 AM:
Mathematician 3247
Thursday June 13th
4 Races Discussed
0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet
No Official Bet
Betting The Message
Sodden conditions today
With Soft and Heavy ground
Uttoxeter has been abandoned
Haydock has been abandoned
Following several non runners
Left now with just 4 previews
Having bailed out of 2 others
Newbury 2.00
Newbury 2.30
Newbury 3.00
Nottingham 3.45
I think we have to abandon plans
To have a bet on either account
There are significant disruptions
The first two previews
The opening 2 races at Newbury
Could easily provide winners
After non runners and price changes
I've had to combine them together
Newbury 2.00 BAADIRR 9/4
Newbury 2.30 QAMKA 11/8
Each Way Double
Really didn't want to do that
After yesterdays each way double
One of the best contenders
For a possible bet on the account
Nottingham 3.45
GLOBAL MELODY 9/2
Each Way
Non runners have spoilt this
Now we only have 7 runners
So there are only 2 places
Despite that
Still making this my best bet
Today's Best Bet
Nottingham 3.45
GLOBAL MELODY 4/1
Each Way
1/4 the odds a place
Only 2 Places
It is all a bit too chaotic today
Anyone's guess what may happen
With more non runners later on
Think we just need to bail out
Put it down as a very random day
Personally I am having 2 bets
An each way single in the 2pm
Rather than the each way double
I am also betting Global Melody
Because he has a fitness edge
Monday's Review
Went for safety first yesterday
Maybe too negative a strategy
Each Way double went down
The last refuge of the coward
The knife twisted in a bit more
As a winner and 4th hurts more
Didn't offer too much yesterday
From the four races discussed
We got two right and two wrong
But came out losing from them
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Newbury 2.00
3/1 Gold Souk, 4/1 Baadirr, 5/1 King's View
5/1 Mottrib, 10/1 Rocket Dancer, 14/1 Swinley Forest
16/1 Bealach, 20/1 Glorious Return
100/1 Made Guy.
6f Maiden
GOLD SOUK is drawn 10 of 10
6f Newbury Maidens
Under 13 runners
The last 22 years since 1997
Unraced 2 year olds
Drawn 10 or higher
Have a miserable 1-98 record
On that draw stat
GOLD SOUK has his work cut out
The problem today
Non runners could make the difference
If the field is smaller his chance increased
What interests me about this 1-98 statistic
BAADIRR fails it on his debut here last time
He was drawn 10 on his debut here last time
I like the symmetry of that
BAADIRR inconvenienced last time
GOLD SOUK has the same problem today
BAADIRR each way at 11/4
Could be the sensible bet here
If you run some sire stats
Unraced 2 year olds
Running over 6f or more
On Soft and Heavy ground
Dark Angel's runners are 0-54
KINGS VIEW 6/1 is the 55th to try
That Breeding stat puts me off him
If you look at the sire Camacho
His runners are 0-12 doing this
GLORIOUS RETURN tries to be the 1st
SWINLEY FOREST is sired by Ivawood
Who hasn't had a winner fto on soft over 6f +
There are unknown dangers
MOTTRIB on his debut could be the one
But I would take the view
With a decent run behind him
From a bad draw on his debut
BAADIRR with expected improvement
Should be difficult to beat here
And should be expected to at least place
Selection
Option 1
BAADIRR 5/2
Each Way
Not available in the offices
But should be available on Betfair
Option 2
Newbury 2.00 BAADIRR 9/4
Newbury 2.30 QAMKA 11/8
Each Way Double
I prefer Option 1
But as not everyone can get on
I will go with Option 2 instead
Newbury 2.30
11/8 Qamka, 5/2 To The Moon, 10/1 Beauty Of Deira
10/1 Narak, 14/1 Wild Cat, 16/1 Forbidden Dance
16/1 Kingslady, 20/1 Galileo Jade, 25/1 Pearl Jam
50/1 Eventura,
Fillies Maiden over 8f
The market is hinting
This could be a match
QAMKA - Roger Varian
TO THE MOON - John Gosden
May not be as simple as that
But little market support for the rest
TO THE MOON has that extra run
But beaten at odds on on his 3yo debut
Watching the video's of both horses
QAMKA looked a decent sized filly
TO THE MOON looks a bit undersized
Made me wonder if she had trained on
That is only an assumption
But given their size and their debuts
QAMKA looked the safer choice of the pair
Selection
OAMKA 11/8
Win Bet
or
Each Way Double
Newbury 3.00
4/5 Terebellum, 3/1 Antonia De Vega
4/1 Star Terms, 12/1 Lastochka, 16/1 Mannaal
40/1 Patchouli.
The Abingdon Stakes
Listed race for 3yo fillies over 10f
TEREBELLUM is a shade of odds on
Impressive winning her only race
Pretty smart Racing Post Rating
Understandable that she is favourite
If you look at this race
Past winners since 2003
Had 2-9 career starts
Ran within 6 weeks
Ran over 9f or more last time
Came from a Non Handicap
No horse has won this race
Having raced just once before
Since 2002 when Succinct won
TEREBELLUM has this problem
She could easily overcome this
Given her quality and a small field
But based on the past renewals
STAR TERMS looks a better fit
She has had 9 career starts
That could be a decent advantage
When you consider how soft it is
The race she comes from a Newbury
Produced last years winner of this
Another reason I like her chance
One of her main market rivals
ANTONIA DE VEGA has 248 days off
June and July
Listed and Group races
Run for 3 year old fillies
Any distance
83 of these races
83 winners all ran within 59 days
Horses absent over 59 days
Return a 0-86 record since 2004
None have won with long absences
ANTONIA DE VEGA fails this 0-86 record
STAR TERMS
Looks a far safer bet
Than a horse with a long absence
This leads to two possible strategies
Option 1
STAR TERMS 4/1
Each Way
1/4 the odds 2 places
Option 2
£5 Win STAR TERMS 4/1
£5 Win TEREBELLUM 10/11
Happy with either option
If we side with Option 2
STAR TERMS becomes 6/4
Money back if the odds on fav wins
And the only horses that can beat us
Are a long absent horse failing a 0-86 stat
And a couple of outsiders
One potential flaw
What if STAR TERMS doesn't stay
Said to have a "sprinters physique"
What if she didn't stay 10f last time out
LASTOCHKA was not far behind her
She was staying on and it was her 3yo debut
Maybe she might progress past her
This leads me to option 3
Which is quite an ugly staked bet
But allows us two savers
And the chance of a decent winner
Final Selection
£4 Win Bet LASTOCHKA 11/1
£4 Win Bet TEREBELLUM 4/5
£2 Win Bet STAR TERMS 4/1
Nottingham 3.45
7/2 Gunnison, 5/1 Cupid's Arrow, 11/2 Global Melody
6/1 Our Charlie Brown, 6/1 Stallone, 7/1 Bayards Cove
20/1 Cardaw Lily.
6f Handicap
Horses rated 66
One of the interesting things
We have 3 horses aged 6 here
Taking on older horses
GUNNISON
STALLONE
TIZWOTITIZ
122 Similar races show
Horses aged 3
Won 15 of 122 races
They do slightly underperform in them
None of the 15 won on soft ground
On this ground on this track
I would not trust a 3yo in this
GUNNISON only has 3 runs anyway
Class 6 Handicaps
Run at any time of year
Over 6 furlongs
Horses aged 3
Under 4 career starts
Taking on older horses
Return a modest 5-114 record
Whne the ground was softer than good
All 44 that tried were beaten
GUNNISON is the 45th to try
STALLONE may be a better option
He has been backed to win this race
I would see him as a dangerous threat
But on bad ground not that convinced
April May June
6f Handicaps in Class 6
Run on ground softer than good
Horses aged 3
Running this season
Under 7 career starts
Have a 0-39 record in these months
STALLONE has this profile
FLORA TRISTAN is a 4yo filly
She's raced just once this season
BAYARDS COVE has the same problem
Filly aged 4 with just 1 run since Aug 2018
CARDAW LILY another 4yo filly
She is absent far too long
OUR CHARLIE BROWN is a 5yo
Not yet hit form in 3 races this year
His Numbers have dropped recently
His 6f form is far more uncertain
DUBAI EXPRESS is a mare
She is up in trip with low numbers
Sold cheaply has done nothing in a while
CUPIDS ARROW has a chance
GLOBAL MELODY is a 4yo
He had a good run just 2 days ago
Horses aged 4
Running within 4 days
Have an excellent 6-15 record
Ran well on soft just 2 days ago
That was in a better race than this
Win lose or draw
That 2 day absence seals it for me
Selection
GLOBAL MELODY 9/2
Each Way
Only 2 Places
1/4 the odds a place
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Royal Ascot
65mm of rain landed on Ascot
The ground is said to be softer
Far too early to assume anything
It could easily dry out quite a lot
But if there is a soft ground Ascot
The following statistic is interesting
Royal Ascot
Good to Soft or worse
Horses aged 5 or more
Absent more than 42 days
Have a 1-76 record
The only winner Commissioned 2016
Who won the 2m 5f Queen Alexander
No others aged 5 or more
Have won absent more than 6 weeks
Many will fail this stat next week
If the ground is officially softer
One of these
Blue Point 3/1 in the Kings Stand
Currently 3/1 behing Battash 9/4
Blue Point is a 5yo absent 80 days
He will fail this angle if it is softer
So will the 5th favourite Imprimis
The flaw in this particular statistic
Relies on accurate going descriptions
We know these are often unreliable
Would not fully commit to this angle
But would use it as an issue raiser
Hard for older types to defy absences
If the ground is softer at this meeting
Ascot
Tuesday 18th June
Queen Anne Stakes
Mustashry 4/1 Le Brivido 4/1 Barney Roy 8/1
Laurens 8/1 Accidental Agent 10/1 Lord Glitters 12/1
Hazapour 14/1 Olmedo 16/1 I Can Fly 25/1
Matterhorn 33/1 One Master 33/1 Romanised 33/1
Imaging 33/1 Mythical Magic 40/1 Stormy Atlantic 40/1
Dream Castle 50/1 Magical 50/1 Sharja Bridge 66/1
Beat The Bank 66/1
Group 1
Older horses
Run over a Mile
18 horses left in the race
Number of Career runs
27 Stormy Atlantic
21 Lord Glitters
18 Mustashry
17 Accidental Agent
16 I Can Fly
16 Beat The Bank
15 Dream Castle
15 Magical
12 Laurens
12 Sharja Bridge
12 Matterhorn
11 One Master
11 Romanised
10 Mythical Magic
9 Barney Roy
9 Olmedo
8 Hazapour
7 Le Brivido
There may be a small draw bias
Horses drawn 6-11 perform best
Past winners
Had the following career starts
13 11 11 14 8 7 6 6 13
13 17 14 9 11 10 5 9 9
Horses with over 17 runs
Have a 0-42 record since 1997
MUSTASHRY fails this
He has now had 18 career starts
Won the Lockinge and second favourite
But his exposure and age is a concern
MUSTASHRY is a 6 year old
The last winner aged 6 or older
Was a long way back in 1976
All 44 since 1997 were beaten
Several came 2nd or 3rd to be fair
But the record is pretty dismal
MUSTASHRY aged 6 with 18 runs
Should not be my selection
Yes he won the Lockinge Stakes
But there is such a draw bias there
He benefited and fancied others didn't
He is also better on faster ground
If the ground is slow it hurts him
STORMY ATLANTIC is exposed
LORD GLITTERS is an exposed 6yo
We know now have won since 1976
BEAT THE BANK is unlikely to race
MAGICAL another doubtful runner
ONE MASTER is an older mare
With 1 run this year not safe enough
ACCIDENTAL AGENT won this last year
Older and more exposed this season
He has had only 1 prep run this year
Last year he had 2 and faster ground
When he won this race last year
It was his sires first pattern race winner
With a horse running over a mile or more
None from his sire have won at 8f on softer
In a Class 2 race or higher so far
So if it is soft he may not appreciate that
It would worry me a horse so exposed
Has raced just once since he was a 3yo
HAZARPOUR is a 4yo with 8 runs
Not proven in this class over a mile
The question is will a mile be enough
Can he win a Group 1 over a mile
LAURENS is a 4yo filly
Royal Ascot
Group 1 races since 2007
Fillies aged 4
Have a 1-39 record
Only Estimate did it in the Gold Cup
Overall they have not scored well
If the ground was soft
The Mile trip would be testing enough
But what bothers me more as a filly
Most of her rivals have 2 + recent runs
LAURENS only has the 1 run this season
Thats probably going to be enough
To put me off selecting him to win
I CAN FLY is another 4yo filly
Shes pretty exposed with 16 runs
Has no Group 1 winning form
Hard to see her being the selection
OLMEDO has no form outside France
Has won a French 2000 Guineas
But a mile here is a different proposition
Poor breeding stats over 8f in Group races
BARNEY ROY is a 5yo
Won the St James Palace in 2017
Did not race in 2018 he went to stud
But is now back in 2019 with 2 warm up races
One concern is the sire Excelebration
The only Group winner he has over 8f
Was Barney Roy in the said St James Palace
The ground turning soft would be a worry
On good faster ground not ruled out
LE BRIVIDO has 7 runs
I would see that as acceptable
Despite being the least experienced
Obvious question mark
Given this is Aidan O'Briens Number 1
Can he beat out of the first 3
Not sure, I would want a good draw
He had a horrible draw in the Lockinge
His career best Racing Post Rating
Came over 8f on soft in France
Might relax some worried about stamina
He's certainly a more likely winner
Than Mustashry on his age and profile
That would be magnified on softer ground
Which would count against Barney Roy
Would also count against Laurens as well
LE BRIVIDO is shortlistable right now
Need to know the draw and ground
But this has the smell of a race
That could offer an each way bet
LE BRIVIDO could be that bet
There is some media negativity here
Which is partially based on his numbers
Several admittedly are rated higher
But they have not factored in 2 things
He should have the most improvement
He is also trained by the best
Provisional Selection
LE BRIVIDO 4/1
Each Way
***************************************************
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