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Mathematician 3368

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Mathematician 3368

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Mathematician 3368

Wednesday October 30th

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0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet

No Official Bet

Today's Message

First proper message this week
Need to build up some momentum
Confident could do with boosting
Wont find it on a 6 card Wednesday

The Flat season is on life support
Its not that far off the death rattle

National Hunt is still premature
It's not long out of the incubator
My timing is still not up to speed
Playing myself into form right now

7 previews

Fakenham 1.40
Taunton 2.30
Fakenham 3.10
Kempton 4.40
Dundalk 5.00
Wolverhampton 5.20
Dundalk 7.30

Fakenham has 2 previews
Both are quite scrappy races
Small fields and low grades
But there are some big angles
Some Fakenham Generics stats
So hoping these work out well
Certainly makes a nice change

Taunton 2.30

£5 Win Bet DUSKY HERCULES 7/1

£5 Win Bet BATHSHEBA BAY 1/1

Educated guesswork the plan
This is first and third favourite
Placed together in a split stake

The interesting part of the race
The heavily backed 2nd favourite
Fails a rather extreme 0-306 stat

Don't be surprised if he wins it
I certainly wouldn't lay the horse
Bathsheba Bays profile is poor
Dusky Hercules has a big absence
And David Pipe is very unreliable
Feel this bet is staked pretty well
Fascinated to see what happens
How the 0-306 Scadura performs
I have staked the bet around him

It was a possible highlighted bet
But too many unknown problems
By Order Of has a chance at 12/1
Didn't want to rely on David Pipe
And the negative 2nd favourite
Does have the best hurdles form
It would be too sickening if he won
Happier with an unstaked bet here

Fakenham 3.10

£8 Win Bet THE DETAINEE 5/2

£2 Win Bet TODD 5/1

Small field but interesting
As the race has some generics

The 7 past winners of this race
All had the same basic profile
Horse with that profile are 7-14
The Detainee is the 15th to try
Hoping he can keep that going

All Weather

3 Evening fixtures

Don't want to nominate anything
Can't cope with 3 Sand meetings
Without delaying the message time
There just isn't sufficient time

Two who let me down recently
Are possible recovery winners

Yale 4/5 runs in the 5pm Dundalk
Suspect he might outclass these
He is very much a trust Aidan bet

Field of Vision is out in the 5.20pm
Felt he was a horse about to win
But nothing nominated on Sand

No Staked Bet

Getting back to form / momentum
Feels the bigger priority right now

Lots of talking points
Which may be covered tomorrow
But no official bet on Wednesday

Today's Best Bet

Taunton 2.30

£5 Win Bet DUSKY HERCULES 7/1

£5 Win Bet BATHSHEBA BAY 1/1

Tuesday's Review

Short 1 preview message
After a late decision to do one
Akkapenko did not run his race
Returning a blank 1 race day

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Fakenham 1.40

3/1 Brambledown, 4/1 Perfect Myth
5/1 Musical Stardust, 8/1 Affluence, Collodi
10/1 Captain Speaking, Two Blondes, 14/1 Gold Fields
14/1 Welland, 20/1 Global Wonder.

2m Handicap Hurdle

This handicap has 3yo's
Not the easiest of courses
For horses aged 3 to win on
Especially with no handicap form

Fakenham
Handicap Hurdles
Any time of year since 2005
Any Distance
Any Class
Horses from Novice/Maiden hurdles
Aged under 5 years old
Have a 0-42 record
No young horse has won here
Without previous handicap form

TWO BLONDES fails this
BRAMBLEDON also fails this
GLOBAL WONDER not running well enough
GOLD FIELDS hasn't shown enough
CAPTAIN SPEAKING has a long absence
Don't want a young horse here doing that
WELLAND has 1 bad run since March
No evidence of form or fitness

COLLODI is a 10 year old
Has the form and could popup
But he has 102 days off the track

Fakenham
Handicap Hurdles
Any time of year since 1999
Any Distance
Any Class
Horses aged 10 or more
Absent more than 33 days
Have a 0-53 record here
Horses aged 9 or more
Absent more than 37 days
Have a 1-95 record here as well
None his age have won off so long
COLLODI is rejected

AFFLUENCE is a 4yo
Been running on the flat
Not keen he has 3 hurdle runs

Fakenham
Handicap Hurdles
April to December
Any class any distance

Horses aged 4
Under 5 hurdle runs are 1-36
Under 4 hurdle runs are 0-22
AFFLUENCE with only 3 hurdle runs
Does not make the shortlist

Shortlist

PERFECT MYTH
MUSICAL STARDUST

MUSICAL STARDUST is fit
Running well summer jumping

PERFECT MYTH ran 11 days ago
Her first run of the season
Did She do enough to defy topweight

Either could be the selection

Selection

£4 Each Way PERFECT MYTH 5/1

£2 Win Saver MUSICAL STARDUST 4/1

Taunton 2.30

10/11 Bathsheba Bay, 3/1 Scardura, 11/2 Dusky Hercules
7/1 Aria Rose, 10/1 By Order Of, 16/1 Jawshan
25/1 Taurean Dancer, 50/1 Sheeza Legend
66/1 Sarasota, 100/1 Alfie's Angel, Everlasting Sea
100/1 Finvarra, Niamh's Oscar, Phoenix Lightning.

2m Maiden hurdle

Not many can win this

I am boxed in here
By a couple of fascinating angles

SCADURA is a 5yo
He has raced only once under rules

He fails a strange angle below
But one which scores very badly

October and November
Maiden Hurdles over 16f-17f

Horses aged 5 or more
Running within 5 months
Coming from a Novice or maiden hurdle
Coming from 2m 2f or shorter
Under 3 lifetime starts

Horses with this profile
Have a horrible 0-306 profile
Not a typo that's none from 306
SCADURA fails this angle

Obviously most were unfancied
But 4 were beaten at odds on
And 9 beaten at 7/4 or shorter
SCADURA is opposed

BATHSHEBA BAY is a 4yo
Paul Nicholls trains him
1 Hurdle run beaten 12 lengths
Obviously needs to improve
But you would expect that

When I run his profile
I find a rather unpleasant result

October and November
Maiden Hurdles
Any distance since 2007

Horses aged 4
1 previous hurdle start
More than 3 races on the flat
Horses with this profile
Have a very modest 2-87 record
Those beaten over 3 lengths last time
Have a 0-66 record in these months
BATHSHEBA BAY fails this 0-66 statistic

Not sure I should trust that angle
He was a very decent flat horse
In the middle of his 2yo season
Had wind ops to cure making noises

If I choose to oppose him
Bearing in mind Scardura is a negative
That really leaves me 2 options
DUSKY HERCULES around 7/1
Never safe as a David Pipe horse
BY ORDER OF was another option
But a 4yo with 1 run with an absence
Contribute to a weak profile
Decided to stake it this way

Selection

£5 Win Bet DUSKY HERCULES 7/1

£5 Win Bet BATHSHEBA BAY 10/11

Fakenham 3.10

9/4 The Darley Lama, 7/2 Nathans Pride
4/1 The Detainee, 5/1 Todd, 6/1 Regarding Ruth
16/1 Remember The Man.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 7f

Messy small field race

NATHANS PRIDE is 11 years old
He has a 52 day absence today

Fakenham
Handicap Hurdles
Any time of year since 1999
Any Distance
Any Class
Horses aged 10 or more
Absent more than 33 days
Have a 0-53 record here

Fails the same angle
As Collodi does in the 1.40pm
Hopeful that angle will work out

THE DARLEY LAMA is opposed
He only has 2 previous hurdle runs
No horse has won a Fakenham handicap
Over this far when so inexperienced
REMEMBER THE MAN has topweight
Unfancied well beaten in a maiden hurdle
Wont be easy to defy topweight here

Fakenham
Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 7f or more
Since 2010
Horses with under 4 hurdle runs
Have a 0-45 record in them
REMEMBER THE MAN fails this
THE DARLEY LAMA fails this

REGARDING RUTH a mare with an absence

TODD has a chance
Could be a potential saver bet

7 Past renewals

All 7 winners
Had the following profile

Horses aged 5-6-7-8
Carrying 10st 12lbs or more
Over 13 career starts
Between 8 and 19 hurdle runs
Horses with this profile
Had a 7-14 record in 7 renewals
Only 1 horse has this profile

THE DETAINEE 5/2 - 100/30

Selection

£8 Win Bet THE DETAINEE 5/2-11/4

£2 Win Bet TODD 4/1

Kempton 4.40

7/4 Swiss Pride, 3/1 Steelriver
4/1 Pour La Victoire, 5/1 Pettochside
8/1 Mujassam, 25/1 Flowing Clarets
50/1 Swendab.

6f Claimer

Only 7 runners

SWISS PRIDE doesn't stay
But has a lot of speed and ability
And could win this even over 6f
Given this is standard to slow
Going against him on his pedigree
But he could get away with it
Only 1 of these are outclassed
SWENDAD makes no appeal
FLOWING CLARETS rated too low

STEELRIVER is 9 absent 79 days
POUR LA VICTOIRE is 9 absent 44 days

October and November
Claiming races
10f and shorter
Horses aged 9 or more
Absent more than 21 days
Have a 0-39 record in them
STEELRIVER fails this
POUR LA VICTOIRE fails this

Not a great angle
But on a surface riding slow
Why risk an older horse with time off
Playing it this way

Selection

Small Stakes

£8 Win Bet PETTOCHSIDE 11/2

£2 Win Bet MUJASSAM 5/1

Dundalk 5.00

8/13 Yale, 4/1 Wild Abandon, 7/1 My Excelsa
7/1 Son And Sannie, 16/1 Sceptical, 25/1 Midge Maisel
25/1 Wild Bob Cat, 66/1 Realtin Fantasy.

YALE has ran twice
He cost a Million Dollars
Feel he has been very unlucky
Impossible draw at the Curragh
When drawn 23/23 on his debut
Had the race won last time out
But was mugged on the line
Feel he blew up that day
On soft ground absent 61 days
Expecting him to make amends

WILD ABANDON is down 2f
She is a filly with 136 days off
Feel we can beat her
No horse in this race
Has a Racing Post Rating of 70 +
Suggests not a great standard

There is a right and wrong price
YALE at 4/5 or better looks fair

Selection

YALE 4/5

Win Bet

Wolverhampton 5.20

7/2 Itmakesyouthink, 4/1 Puchita, 5/1 Field Of Vision
7/1 My Law, 9/1 Majdool 12/1 Kyllachy Castle
12/1 Silk Mill Blue, 16/1 Jazz Legend
16/1 Shamarouski, 25/1 Darwina, Elusif.

7f Handicap

Only doing this race
Because of comments I made

FIELD OF VISION

Said he won win soon
I'd rather this was 6f
Not overkeen he is up in trip
But I can match him to a winner

PUCHITA isn't much
Might win but not that scared of her
MY LAW lacks recent runs
MAJDOOL looks beatable
SILK MILL BLUE has low numbers

There are things I dislike
But this is a very soft race
FIELD OF VISION gets the vote

Selection

FIELD OF VISION 7/2-4/1

Each Way

Dundalk 7.30

5/1 Footsteps At Dawn, Plane Tree Fairy, 6/1 Lady Savanah
13/2 Nisior Donn, 7/1 Piper Bomb, 8/1 Little Camacho
10/1 Red Avenger, 12/1 Clonville, 14/1 La Derniere Fois
14/1 La Novia, 16/1 Rinty Maginty, 20/1 Everyhouronthehour
25/1 Primadonia, 33/1 Keep Dreaming.

7f Handicap

Some of the lightweights
Seem to lack the class to win

PRIMADONIA an unfit lightweight
LA NOVIA is a 46 rated filly
Up in distance with 86 days off
She may find this too much
EVERYHOURONTHEHOUR has 4 runs
Has not shown enough rated 51

High draws struggle here
Especially with inexperienced riders

Dundalk 7f races
Horses ridden by Claimers
Drawn in stall 12 or higher
Absent more than 2 weeks
Have a 0-165 record since 2012
CLONVILLE shares this 0-165 statistic
LITTLE CAMACHO fails this as well
She is a filly with 74 days off
KEEP DREAMING also has this problem

RINTY MAGINTY has the widest stall
No 3yo has won drawn that high in years

PLANTE TREE FAIRY is a 3yo filly
She has raced only 3 times before
Not well drawn plenty to overcome
LA DERNIER FOIS is another filly
Well beaten last time she is short of runs
NISION DONN has topweight
She is an oldr mare with 137 days off
She has raced only once since April
Have to question his form and fitness
RED AVENGER at 9 is the oldest horse
His best numbers are over further

Shortlist

FOOTSTEPS AT DAWN 4/1

PIPER BOMB 8/1

LADY SAVANAH 7/1-8/1

FOOTSTEPS AT DAWN is a 4yo filly
Won at Wolverhampton last time out
Not sure how safe a run that was
There were no stalls a standing start
Just worried they went off too fast
1st and 2nd came from the back to win

8 Days ago
In the same race at the Curragh

LADY SAVANAH was 2nd
PIPER BOMB was in 3rd

What I like about this pair
They have 3 runs in October

Runs this month

3 Lady Savanah
3 Piper Bomb
1 Footsteps At Dawn
1 Red Avenger
1 Rinty Maginty
1 Everyhouronthehour
1 Primadonia
0 All other horses

None of the other horses
Have raced more than once

LADY SAVANAH unlucky last time
Burst clear should have won
Ridden by an Apprentice that day
May have gone too early/too fast
They have messed around with her trip
Hard to know what her best distance is
But she looked very good last time

Selection

Option 1

£7 Win Bet LADY SAVANAH 7/1

£2 Win Bet FOOTSTEPS AT DAWN 4/1

£1 Win Bet PIPER BOMB 8/1

Option 2

LADY SAVANAH 7/1

Each Way

No strong preference
Option 2 is a lot simpler
So will choose that option

FUTURE BETTING ANGLES

Cork National Sunday

17 Entered
No weights yet
No markets yet

There should be later today
Once the Bookmaker Cartel
Meet to ensure prices match

Looks a very manageable field
Willie Mullins has just 1 entry
Pont Aven who has 3 chase runs
The joint - lightest raced horse

Pont Aven - 3 Chase runs
The Red Menace - 3 chase runs

The Red Menace is only a 5yo
Almost certain to rule him out
Beyond the pale to bet a 5yo

Pont Aven is a year older
Right now see him as a positive
But going to wait for the weights

Naas November Handicap

No market here either
Had a look at this last night
Looks workable and interesting
Much will depend on topweights
Stratum has a handicap mark of 108
Aidan has a couple weighted high
Need to find out if they take part

Saturday

Ladbrokes Champion Chase

Down Royal 2.25

Delta Work 2/1 Clan Des Obeaux 9/4
Road To Respect 9/4 Snow Falcon 8/1
Alpha Des Obeaux 12/1 Balko Des Flos 12/1
Tout Est Permis 20/1 Mengli Khan 25/1
Shattered Love 25/1

DELTA WORK

Mentioned yesterday
Could be his seasonal debut

This field will reduce
9 entries so far
7 owned by Gigginstown
Potentially this is a mess

Only 3 horses aged 6
Have ran in this in recent years
These finished 1st 2nd and 5th
DELTA WORK looks a positive

CLAN DES OBEAUX is the class horse
This is probably a prep run for him
Nicholls horses are needing a run
But he could still be good enough

Most seasonal debut winners
Had under 13 previous chase runs
Only Kauto Star did it with more

ROAD TO RESPECT has 17 Chases
That sound like a lot first time out
CLAN DES OBEAUX has had 15 runs

Given the choice
DELTA WORK with 6 chase runs
Far less exposed and more progressive
Would probably be the safer bet really

The last 3 winners had prep runs
So too early to rule anything out yet
Your second guessing who will run

Much depends on Gigginstown
Who they want to run
Which they want to win

DELTA WORK though
Looks an early positive to me

Ante Post

Saturday

Wetherby 3.40

Charlie Hall Chase

La Bague Au Roi 7/2 Elegant Escape 4/1
Black Corton 9/2 Aso 5/1 Ballyoptic 5/1
Definitly Red 6/1 Top Ville Ben 8/1
Molly The Dolly 10/1 Vinndication 12/1
Double Shuffle 14/1 Jett 20/1 Atlanta Ablaze 25/1

Just an early look
One of two possible issues
Not doing to get too intense
Incase the race is abandoned

Number of Chase runs

24 Jett
22 Double Shuffle
20 Definitly Red
20 Aso
20 Black Corton
13 Elegant Escape
12 Atlanta Ablaze
11 Ballyoptic
6 Top Ville Ben
5 La Bague Au Roi
4 Molly The Dolly
4 Vinndication

Past winners had these Chase runs

15 14 15 17 5 5 6 8 11 9
11 19 25 13 19 11 19 14

The last 12 winners
Had under 20 Chase runs

17 of the last 18 winners
Had under 20 Chase runs

May be an idea
To oppose the exposed horses
The following all have 20 + chase runs
More than all recent winners if this

JETT - DOUBLE SHUFFLE
DEFINITELY RED - ASO
BLACK CORTON

DEFINITELY RED is a 10 year old
Been 15 years since one his age won

Probably best to stay with
Lighter raced younger chaser

Looked at the last 21 renewals
No horse has won this race
With under 5 previous chase runs

VINNDICATION has 4 Chase runs
MOLLY THE DOLLY has 4 Chase runs

ATLANTA ABLAZE is a mare first time out
Lowest rated horse in the race as well
Look at past 8yo first time out winners
They all had fewer chase runs

Safer Profiles

LE BAGUE AU ROI
ELEGANT ESCAPE
TOP VILLE BEN
BALLYOPTIC

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