Fakenham has 2 previews Both are quite scrappy races Small fields and low grades But there are some big angles Some Fakenham Generics stats So hoping these work out well Certainly makes a nice change
Taunton 2.30
£5 Win Bet DUSKY HERCULES 7/1
£5 Win Bet BATHSHEBA BAY 1/1
Educated guesswork the plan This is first and third favourite Placed together in a split stake
The interesting part of the race The heavily backed 2nd favourite Fails a rather extreme 0-306 stat
Don't be surprised if he wins it I certainly wouldn't lay the horse Bathsheba Bays profile is poor Dusky Hercules has a big absence And David Pipe is very unreliable Feel this bet is staked pretty well Fascinated to see what happens How the 0-306 Scadura performs I have staked the bet around him
It was a possible highlighted bet But too many unknown problems By Order Of has a chance at 12/1 Didn't want to rely on David Pipe And the negative 2nd favourite Does have the best hurdles form It would be too sickening if he won Happier with an unstaked bet here
Fakenham 3.10
£8 Win Bet THE DETAINEE 5/2
£2 Win Bet TODD 5/1
Small field but interesting As the race has some generics
The 7 past winners of this race All had the same basic profile Horse with that profile are 7-14 The Detainee is the 15th to try Hoping he can keep that going
All Weather
3 Evening fixtures
Don't want to nominate anything Can't cope with 3 Sand meetings Without delaying the message time There just isn't sufficient time
Two who let me down recently Are possible recovery winners
Yale 4/5 runs in the 5pm Dundalk Suspect he might outclass these He is very much a trust Aidan bet
Field of Vision is out in the 5.20pm Felt he was a horse about to win But nothing nominated on Sand
No Staked Bet
Getting back to form / momentum Feels the bigger priority right now
Lots of talking points Which may be covered tomorrow But no official bet on Wednesday
Today's Best Bet
Taunton 2.30
£5 Win Bet DUSKY HERCULES 7/1
£5 Win Bet BATHSHEBA BAY 1/1
Tuesday's Review
Short 1 preview message After a late decision to do one Akkapenko did not run his race Returning a blank 1 race day
This handicap has 3yo's Not the easiest of courses For horses aged 3 to win on Especially with no handicap form
Fakenham Handicap Hurdles Any time of year since 2005 Any Distance Any Class Horses from Novice/Maiden hurdles Aged under 5 years old Have a 0-42 record No young horse has won here Without previous handicap form
TWO BLONDES fails this BRAMBLEDON also fails this GLOBAL WONDER not running well enough GOLD FIELDS hasn't shown enough CAPTAIN SPEAKING has a long absence Don't want a young horse here doing that WELLAND has 1 bad run since March No evidence of form or fitness
COLLODI is a 10 year old Has the form and could popup But he has 102 days off the track
Fakenham Handicap Hurdles Any time of year since 1999 Any Distance Any Class Horses aged 10 or more Absent more than 33 days Have a 0-53 record here Horses aged 9 or more Absent more than 37 days Have a 1-95 record here as well None his age have won off so long COLLODI is rejected
AFFLUENCE is a 4yo Been running on the flat Not keen he has 3 hurdle runs
Fakenham Handicap Hurdles April to December Any class any distance
Horses aged 4 Under 5 hurdle runs are 1-36 Under 4 hurdle runs are 0-22 AFFLUENCE with only 3 hurdle runs Does not make the shortlist
Shortlist
PERFECT MYTH MUSICAL STARDUST
MUSICAL STARDUST is fit Running well summer jumping
PERFECT MYTH ran 11 days ago Her first run of the season Did She do enough to defy topweight
I am boxed in here By a couple of fascinating angles
SCADURA is a 5yo He has raced only once under rules
He fails a strange angle below But one which scores very badly
October and November Maiden Hurdles over 16f-17f
Horses aged 5 or more Running within 5 months Coming from a Novice or maiden hurdle Coming from 2m 2f or shorter Under 3 lifetime starts
Horses with this profile Have a horrible 0-306 profile Not a typo that's none from 306 SCADURA fails this angle
Obviously most were unfancied But 4 were beaten at odds on And 9 beaten at 7/4 or shorter SCADURA is opposed
BATHSHEBA BAY is a 4yo Paul Nicholls trains him 1 Hurdle run beaten 12 lengths Obviously needs to improve But you would expect that
When I run his profile I find a rather unpleasant result
October and November Maiden Hurdles Any distance since 2007
Horses aged 4 1 previous hurdle start More than 3 races on the flat Horses with this profile Have a very modest 2-87 record Those beaten over 3 lengths last time Have a 0-66 record in these months BATHSHEBA BAY fails this 0-66 statistic
Not sure I should trust that angle He was a very decent flat horse In the middle of his 2yo season Had wind ops to cure making noises
If I choose to oppose him Bearing in mind Scardura is a negative That really leaves me 2 options DUSKY HERCULES around 7/1 Never safe as a David Pipe horse BY ORDER OF was another option But a 4yo with 1 run with an absence Contribute to a weak profile Decided to stake it this way
Selection
£5 Win Bet DUSKY HERCULES 7/1
£5 Win Bet BATHSHEBA BAY 10/11
Fakenham 3.10
9/4 The Darley Lama, 7/2 Nathans Pride 4/1 The Detainee, 5/1 Todd, 6/1 Regarding Ruth 16/1 Remember The Man.
Handicap Hurdle 2m 7f
Messy small field race
NATHANS PRIDE is 11 years old He has a 52 day absence today
Fakenham Handicap Hurdles Any time of year since 1999 Any Distance Any Class Horses aged 10 or more Absent more than 33 days Have a 0-53 record here
Fails the same angle As Collodi does in the 1.40pm Hopeful that angle will work out
THE DARLEY LAMA is opposed He only has 2 previous hurdle runs No horse has won a Fakenham handicap Over this far when so inexperienced REMEMBER THE MAN has topweight Unfancied well beaten in a maiden hurdle Wont be easy to defy topweight here
Fakenham Handicap Hurdles Run over 2m 7f or more Since 2010 Horses with under 4 hurdle runs Have a 0-45 record in them REMEMBER THE MAN fails this THE DARLEY LAMA fails this
REGARDING RUTH a mare with an absence
TODD has a chance Could be a potential saver bet
7 Past renewals
All 7 winners Had the following profile
Horses aged 5-6-7-8 Carrying 10st 12lbs or more Over 13 career starts Between 8 and 19 hurdle runs Horses with this profile Had a 7-14 record in 7 renewals Only 1 horse has this profile
THE DETAINEE 5/2 - 100/30
Selection
£8 Win Bet THE DETAINEE 5/2-11/4
£2 Win Bet TODD 4/1
Kempton 4.40
7/4 Swiss Pride, 3/1 Steelriver 4/1 Pour La Victoire, 5/1 Pettochside 8/1 Mujassam, 25/1 Flowing Clarets 50/1 Swendab.
6f Claimer
Only 7 runners
SWISS PRIDE doesn't stay But has a lot of speed and ability And could win this even over 6f Given this is standard to slow Going against him on his pedigree But he could get away with it Only 1 of these are outclassed SWENDAD makes no appeal FLOWING CLARETS rated too low
STEELRIVER is 9 absent 79 days POUR LA VICTOIRE is 9 absent 44 days
October and November Claiming races 10f and shorter Horses aged 9 or more Absent more than 21 days Have a 0-39 record in them STEELRIVER fails this POUR LA VICTOIRE fails this
Not a great angle But on a surface riding slow Why risk an older horse with time off Playing it this way
Selection
Small Stakes
£8 Win Bet PETTOCHSIDE 11/2
£2 Win Bet MUJASSAM 5/1
Dundalk 5.00
8/13 Yale, 4/1 Wild Abandon, 7/1 My Excelsa 7/1 Son And Sannie, 16/1 Sceptical, 25/1 Midge Maisel 25/1 Wild Bob Cat, 66/1 Realtin Fantasy.
YALE has ran twice He cost a Million Dollars Feel he has been very unlucky Impossible draw at the Curragh When drawn 23/23 on his debut Had the race won last time out But was mugged on the line Feel he blew up that day On soft ground absent 61 days Expecting him to make amends
WILD ABANDON is down 2f She is a filly with 136 days off Feel we can beat her No horse in this race Has a Racing Post Rating of 70 + Suggests not a great standard
There is a right and wrong price YALE at 4/5 or better looks fair
Selection
YALE 4/5
Win Bet
Wolverhampton 5.20
7/2 Itmakesyouthink, 4/1 Puchita, 5/1 Field Of Vision 7/1 My Law, 9/1 Majdool 12/1 Kyllachy Castle 12/1 Silk Mill Blue, 16/1 Jazz Legend 16/1 Shamarouski, 25/1 Darwina, Elusif.
7f Handicap
Only doing this race Because of comments I made
FIELD OF VISION
Said he won win soon I'd rather this was 6f Not overkeen he is up in trip But I can match him to a winner
PUCHITA isn't much Might win but not that scared of her MY LAW lacks recent runs MAJDOOL looks beatable SILK MILL BLUE has low numbers
There are things I dislike But this is a very soft race FIELD OF VISION gets the vote
Selection
FIELD OF VISION 7/2-4/1
Each Way
Dundalk 7.30
5/1 Footsteps At Dawn, Plane Tree Fairy, 6/1 Lady Savanah 13/2 Nisior Donn, 7/1 Piper Bomb, 8/1 Little Camacho 10/1 Red Avenger, 12/1 Clonville, 14/1 La Derniere Fois 14/1 La Novia, 16/1 Rinty Maginty, 20/1 Everyhouronthehour 25/1 Primadonia, 33/1 Keep Dreaming.
7f Handicap
Some of the lightweights Seem to lack the class to win
PRIMADONIA an unfit lightweight LA NOVIA is a 46 rated filly Up in distance with 86 days off She may find this too much EVERYHOURONTHEHOUR has 4 runs Has not shown enough rated 51
High draws struggle here Especially with inexperienced riders
Dundalk 7f races Horses ridden by Claimers Drawn in stall 12 or higher Absent more than 2 weeks Have a 0-165 record since 2012 CLONVILLE shares this 0-165 statistic LITTLE CAMACHO fails this as well She is a filly with 74 days off KEEP DREAMING also has this problem
RINTY MAGINTY has the widest stall No 3yo has won drawn that high in years
PLANTE TREE FAIRY is a 3yo filly She has raced only 3 times before Not well drawn plenty to overcome LA DERNIER FOIS is another filly Well beaten last time she is short of runs NISION DONN has topweight She is an oldr mare with 137 days off She has raced only once since April Have to question his form and fitness RED AVENGER at 9 is the oldest horse His best numbers are over further
Shortlist
FOOTSTEPS AT DAWN 4/1
PIPER BOMB 8/1
LADY SAVANAH 7/1-8/1
FOOTSTEPS AT DAWN is a 4yo filly Won at Wolverhampton last time out Not sure how safe a run that was There were no stalls a standing start Just worried they went off too fast 1st and 2nd came from the back to win
8 Days ago In the same race at the Curragh
LADY SAVANAH was 2nd PIPER BOMB was in 3rd
What I like about this pair They have 3 runs in October
Runs this month
3 Lady Savanah 3 Piper Bomb 1 Footsteps At Dawn 1 Red Avenger 1 Rinty Maginty 1 Everyhouronthehour 1 Primadonia 0 All other horses
None of the other horses Have raced more than once
LADY SAVANAH unlucky last time Burst clear should have won Ridden by an Apprentice that day May have gone too early/too fast They have messed around with her trip Hard to know what her best distance is But she looked very good last time
Selection
Option 1
£7 Win Bet LADY SAVANAH 7/1
£2 Win Bet FOOTSTEPS AT DAWN 4/1
£1 Win Bet PIPER BOMB 8/1
Option 2
LADY SAVANAH 7/1
Each Way
No strong preference Option 2 is a lot simpler So will choose that option
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Cork National Sunday
17 Entered No weights yet No markets yet
There should be later today Once the Bookmaker Cartel Meet to ensure prices match
Looks a very manageable field Willie Mullins has just 1 entry Pont Aven who has 3 chase runs The joint - lightest raced horse
Pont Aven - 3 Chase runs The Red Menace - 3 chase runs
The Red Menace is only a 5yo Almost certain to rule him out Beyond the pale to bet a 5yo
Pont Aven is a year older Right now see him as a positive But going to wait for the weights
Naas November Handicap
No market here either Had a look at this last night Looks workable and interesting Much will depend on topweights Stratum has a handicap mark of 108 Aidan has a couple weighted high Need to find out if they take part
Saturday
Ladbrokes Champion Chase
Down Royal 2.25
Delta Work 2/1 Clan Des Obeaux 9/4 Road To Respect 9/4 Snow Falcon 8/1 Alpha Des Obeaux 12/1 Balko Des Flos 12/1 Tout Est Permis 20/1 Mengli Khan 25/1 Shattered Love 25/1
DELTA WORK
Mentioned yesterday Could be his seasonal debut
This field will reduce 9 entries so far 7 owned by Gigginstown Potentially this is a mess
Only 3 horses aged 6 Have ran in this in recent years These finished 1st 2nd and 5th DELTA WORK looks a positive
CLAN DES OBEAUX is the class horse This is probably a prep run for him Nicholls horses are needing a run But he could still be good enough
Most seasonal debut winners Had under 13 previous chase runs Only Kauto Star did it with more
ROAD TO RESPECT has 17 Chases That sound like a lot first time out CLAN DES OBEAUX has had 15 runs
Given the choice DELTA WORK with 6 chase runs Far less exposed and more progressive Would probably be the safer bet really
The last 3 winners had prep runs So too early to rule anything out yet Your second guessing who will run
Much depends on Gigginstown Who they want to run Which they want to win
DELTA WORK though Looks an early positive to me
Ante Post
Saturday
Wetherby 3.40
Charlie Hall Chase
La Bague Au Roi 7/2 Elegant Escape 4/1 Black Corton 9/2 Aso 5/1 Ballyoptic 5/1 Definitly Red 6/1 Top Ville Ben 8/1 Molly The Dolly 10/1 Vinndication 12/1 Double Shuffle 14/1 Jett 20/1 Atlanta Ablaze 25/1
Just an early look One of two possible issues Not doing to get too intense Incase the race is abandoned
Number of Chase runs
24 Jett 22 Double Shuffle 20 Definitly Red 20 Aso 20 Black Corton 13 Elegant Escape 12 Atlanta Ablaze 11 Ballyoptic 6 Top Ville Ben 5 La Bague Au Roi 4 Molly The Dolly 4 Vinndication
Past winners had these Chase runs
15 14 15 17 5 5 6 8 11 9 11 19 25 13 19 11 19 14
The last 12 winners Had under 20 Chase runs
17 of the last 18 winners Had under 20 Chase runs
May be an idea To oppose the exposed horses The following all have 20 + chase runs More than all recent winners if this
JETT - DOUBLE SHUFFLE DEFINITELY RED - ASO BLACK CORTON
DEFINITELY RED is a 10 year old Been 15 years since one his age won
Probably best to stay with Lighter raced younger chaser
Looked at the last 21 renewals No horse has won this race With under 5 previous chase runs
VINNDICATION has 4 Chase runs MOLLY THE DOLLY has 4 Chase runs
ATLANTA ABLAZE is a mare first time out Lowest rated horse in the race as well Look at past 8yo first time out winners They all had fewer chase runs
Safer Profiles
LE BAGUE AU ROI ELEGANT ESCAPE TOP VILLE BEN BALLYOPTIC
Comments on Mathematician 3368
Senior Member
Usergroup: Moderators
Joined: Nov 05, 2003
Total Topics: 6449
Total Comments: 15225
Posted Oct 30, 2019 - 02:47 AM:
Mathematician 3368
Wednesday October 30th
7 Previews
0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet
No Official Bet
Today's Message
First proper message this week
Need to build up some momentum
Confident could do with boosting
Wont find it on a 6 card Wednesday
The Flat season is on life support
Its not that far off the death rattle
National Hunt is still premature
It's not long out of the incubator
My timing is still not up to speed
Playing myself into form right now
7 previews
Fakenham 1.40
Taunton 2.30
Fakenham 3.10
Kempton 4.40
Dundalk 5.00
Wolverhampton 5.20
Dundalk 7.30
Fakenham has 2 previews
Both are quite scrappy races
Small fields and low grades
But there are some big angles
Some Fakenham Generics stats
So hoping these work out well
Certainly makes a nice change
Taunton 2.30
£5 Win Bet DUSKY HERCULES 7/1
£5 Win Bet BATHSHEBA BAY 1/1
Educated guesswork the plan
This is first and third favourite
Placed together in a split stake
The interesting part of the race
The heavily backed 2nd favourite
Fails a rather extreme 0-306 stat
Don't be surprised if he wins it
I certainly wouldn't lay the horse
Bathsheba Bays profile is poor
Dusky Hercules has a big absence
And David Pipe is very unreliable
Feel this bet is staked pretty well
Fascinated to see what happens
How the 0-306 Scadura performs
I have staked the bet around him
It was a possible highlighted bet
But too many unknown problems
By Order Of has a chance at 12/1
Didn't want to rely on David Pipe
And the negative 2nd favourite
Does have the best hurdles form
It would be too sickening if he won
Happier with an unstaked bet here
Fakenham 3.10
£8 Win Bet THE DETAINEE 5/2
£2 Win Bet TODD 5/1
Small field but interesting
As the race has some generics
The 7 past winners of this race
All had the same basic profile
Horse with that profile are 7-14
The Detainee is the 15th to try
Hoping he can keep that going
All Weather
3 Evening fixtures
Don't want to nominate anything
Can't cope with 3 Sand meetings
Without delaying the message time
There just isn't sufficient time
Two who let me down recently
Are possible recovery winners
Yale 4/5 runs in the 5pm Dundalk
Suspect he might outclass these
He is very much a trust Aidan bet
Field of Vision is out in the 5.20pm
Felt he was a horse about to win
But nothing nominated on Sand
No Staked Bet
Getting back to form / momentum
Feels the bigger priority right now
Lots of talking points
Which may be covered tomorrow
But no official bet on Wednesday
Today's Best Bet
Taunton 2.30
£5 Win Bet DUSKY HERCULES 7/1
£5 Win Bet BATHSHEBA BAY 1/1
Tuesday's Review
Short 1 preview message
After a late decision to do one
Akkapenko did not run his race
Returning a blank 1 race day
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Fakenham 1.40
3/1 Brambledown, 4/1 Perfect Myth
5/1 Musical Stardust, 8/1 Affluence, Collodi
10/1 Captain Speaking, Two Blondes, 14/1 Gold Fields
14/1 Welland, 20/1 Global Wonder.
2m Handicap Hurdle
This handicap has 3yo's
Not the easiest of courses
For horses aged 3 to win on
Especially with no handicap form
Fakenham
Handicap Hurdles
Any time of year since 2005
Any Distance
Any Class
Horses from Novice/Maiden hurdles
Aged under 5 years old
Have a 0-42 record
No young horse has won here
Without previous handicap form
TWO BLONDES fails this
BRAMBLEDON also fails this
GLOBAL WONDER not running well enough
GOLD FIELDS hasn't shown enough
CAPTAIN SPEAKING has a long absence
Don't want a young horse here doing that
WELLAND has 1 bad run since March
No evidence of form or fitness
COLLODI is a 10 year old
Has the form and could popup
But he has 102 days off the track
Fakenham
Handicap Hurdles
Any time of year since 1999
Any Distance
Any Class
Horses aged 10 or more
Absent more than 33 days
Have a 0-53 record here
Horses aged 9 or more
Absent more than 37 days
Have a 1-95 record here as well
None his age have won off so long
COLLODI is rejected
AFFLUENCE is a 4yo
Been running on the flat
Not keen he has 3 hurdle runs
Fakenham
Handicap Hurdles
April to December
Any class any distance
Horses aged 4
Under 5 hurdle runs are 1-36
Under 4 hurdle runs are 0-22
AFFLUENCE with only 3 hurdle runs
Does not make the shortlist
Shortlist
PERFECT MYTH
MUSICAL STARDUST
MUSICAL STARDUST is fit
Running well summer jumping
PERFECT MYTH ran 11 days ago
Her first run of the season
Did She do enough to defy topweight
Either could be the selection
Selection
£4 Each Way PERFECT MYTH 5/1
£2 Win Saver MUSICAL STARDUST 4/1
Taunton 2.30
10/11 Bathsheba Bay, 3/1 Scardura, 11/2 Dusky Hercules
7/1 Aria Rose, 10/1 By Order Of, 16/1 Jawshan
25/1 Taurean Dancer, 50/1 Sheeza Legend
66/1 Sarasota, 100/1 Alfie's Angel, Everlasting Sea
100/1 Finvarra, Niamh's Oscar, Phoenix Lightning.
2m Maiden hurdle
Not many can win this
I am boxed in here
By a couple of fascinating angles
SCADURA is a 5yo
He has raced only once under rules
He fails a strange angle below
But one which scores very badly
October and November
Maiden Hurdles over 16f-17f
Horses aged 5 or more
Running within 5 months
Coming from a Novice or maiden hurdle
Coming from 2m 2f or shorter
Under 3 lifetime starts
Horses with this profile
Have a horrible 0-306 profile
Not a typo that's none from 306
SCADURA fails this angle
Obviously most were unfancied
But 4 were beaten at odds on
And 9 beaten at 7/4 or shorter
SCADURA is opposed
BATHSHEBA BAY is a 4yo
Paul Nicholls trains him
1 Hurdle run beaten 12 lengths
Obviously needs to improve
But you would expect that
When I run his profile
I find a rather unpleasant result
October and November
Maiden Hurdles
Any distance since 2007
Horses aged 4
1 previous hurdle start
More than 3 races on the flat
Horses with this profile
Have a very modest 2-87 record
Those beaten over 3 lengths last time
Have a 0-66 record in these months
BATHSHEBA BAY fails this 0-66 statistic
Not sure I should trust that angle
He was a very decent flat horse
In the middle of his 2yo season
Had wind ops to cure making noises
If I choose to oppose him
Bearing in mind Scardura is a negative
That really leaves me 2 options
DUSKY HERCULES around 7/1
Never safe as a David Pipe horse
BY ORDER OF was another option
But a 4yo with 1 run with an absence
Contribute to a weak profile
Decided to stake it this way
Selection
£5 Win Bet DUSKY HERCULES 7/1
£5 Win Bet BATHSHEBA BAY 10/11
Fakenham 3.10
9/4 The Darley Lama, 7/2 Nathans Pride
4/1 The Detainee, 5/1 Todd, 6/1 Regarding Ruth
16/1 Remember The Man.
Handicap Hurdle 2m 7f
Messy small field race
NATHANS PRIDE is 11 years old
He has a 52 day absence today
Fakenham
Handicap Hurdles
Any time of year since 1999
Any Distance
Any Class
Horses aged 10 or more
Absent more than 33 days
Have a 0-53 record here
Fails the same angle
As Collodi does in the 1.40pm
Hopeful that angle will work out
THE DARLEY LAMA is opposed
He only has 2 previous hurdle runs
No horse has won a Fakenham handicap
Over this far when so inexperienced
REMEMBER THE MAN has topweight
Unfancied well beaten in a maiden hurdle
Wont be easy to defy topweight here
Fakenham
Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 7f or more
Since 2010
Horses with under 4 hurdle runs
Have a 0-45 record in them
REMEMBER THE MAN fails this
THE DARLEY LAMA fails this
REGARDING RUTH a mare with an absence
TODD has a chance
Could be a potential saver bet
7 Past renewals
All 7 winners
Had the following profile
Horses aged 5-6-7-8
Carrying 10st 12lbs or more
Over 13 career starts
Between 8 and 19 hurdle runs
Horses with this profile
Had a 7-14 record in 7 renewals
Only 1 horse has this profile
THE DETAINEE 5/2 - 100/30
Selection
£8 Win Bet THE DETAINEE 5/2-11/4
£2 Win Bet TODD 4/1
Kempton 4.40
7/4 Swiss Pride, 3/1 Steelriver
4/1 Pour La Victoire, 5/1 Pettochside
8/1 Mujassam, 25/1 Flowing Clarets
50/1 Swendab.
6f Claimer
Only 7 runners
SWISS PRIDE doesn't stay
But has a lot of speed and ability
And could win this even over 6f
Given this is standard to slow
Going against him on his pedigree
But he could get away with it
Only 1 of these are outclassed
SWENDAD makes no appeal
FLOWING CLARETS rated too low
STEELRIVER is 9 absent 79 days
POUR LA VICTOIRE is 9 absent 44 days
October and November
Claiming races
10f and shorter
Horses aged 9 or more
Absent more than 21 days
Have a 0-39 record in them
STEELRIVER fails this
POUR LA VICTOIRE fails this
Not a great angle
But on a surface riding slow
Why risk an older horse with time off
Playing it this way
Selection
Small Stakes
£8 Win Bet PETTOCHSIDE 11/2
£2 Win Bet MUJASSAM 5/1
Dundalk 5.00
8/13 Yale, 4/1 Wild Abandon, 7/1 My Excelsa
7/1 Son And Sannie, 16/1 Sceptical, 25/1 Midge Maisel
25/1 Wild Bob Cat, 66/1 Realtin Fantasy.
YALE has ran twice
He cost a Million Dollars
Feel he has been very unlucky
Impossible draw at the Curragh
When drawn 23/23 on his debut
Had the race won last time out
But was mugged on the line
Feel he blew up that day
On soft ground absent 61 days
Expecting him to make amends
WILD ABANDON is down 2f
She is a filly with 136 days off
Feel we can beat her
No horse in this race
Has a Racing Post Rating of 70 +
Suggests not a great standard
There is a right and wrong price
YALE at 4/5 or better looks fair
Selection
YALE 4/5
Win Bet
Wolverhampton 5.20
7/2 Itmakesyouthink, 4/1 Puchita, 5/1 Field Of Vision
7/1 My Law, 9/1 Majdool 12/1 Kyllachy Castle
12/1 Silk Mill Blue, 16/1 Jazz Legend
16/1 Shamarouski, 25/1 Darwina, Elusif.
7f Handicap
Only doing this race
Because of comments I made
FIELD OF VISION
Said he won win soon
I'd rather this was 6f
Not overkeen he is up in trip
But I can match him to a winner
PUCHITA isn't much
Might win but not that scared of her
MY LAW lacks recent runs
MAJDOOL looks beatable
SILK MILL BLUE has low numbers
There are things I dislike
But this is a very soft race
FIELD OF VISION gets the vote
Selection
FIELD OF VISION 7/2-4/1
Each Way
Dundalk 7.30
5/1 Footsteps At Dawn, Plane Tree Fairy, 6/1 Lady Savanah
13/2 Nisior Donn, 7/1 Piper Bomb, 8/1 Little Camacho
10/1 Red Avenger, 12/1 Clonville, 14/1 La Derniere Fois
14/1 La Novia, 16/1 Rinty Maginty, 20/1 Everyhouronthehour
25/1 Primadonia, 33/1 Keep Dreaming.
7f Handicap
Some of the lightweights
Seem to lack the class to win
PRIMADONIA an unfit lightweight
LA NOVIA is a 46 rated filly
Up in distance with 86 days off
She may find this too much
EVERYHOURONTHEHOUR has 4 runs
Has not shown enough rated 51
High draws struggle here
Especially with inexperienced riders
Dundalk 7f races
Horses ridden by Claimers
Drawn in stall 12 or higher
Absent more than 2 weeks
Have a 0-165 record since 2012
CLONVILLE shares this 0-165 statistic
LITTLE CAMACHO fails this as well
She is a filly with 74 days off
KEEP DREAMING also has this problem
RINTY MAGINTY has the widest stall
No 3yo has won drawn that high in years
PLANTE TREE FAIRY is a 3yo filly
She has raced only 3 times before
Not well drawn plenty to overcome
LA DERNIER FOIS is another filly
Well beaten last time she is short of runs
NISION DONN has topweight
She is an oldr mare with 137 days off
She has raced only once since April
Have to question his form and fitness
RED AVENGER at 9 is the oldest horse
His best numbers are over further
Shortlist
FOOTSTEPS AT DAWN 4/1
PIPER BOMB 8/1
LADY SAVANAH 7/1-8/1
FOOTSTEPS AT DAWN is a 4yo filly
Won at Wolverhampton last time out
Not sure how safe a run that was
There were no stalls a standing start
Just worried they went off too fast
1st and 2nd came from the back to win
8 Days ago
In the same race at the Curragh
LADY SAVANAH was 2nd
PIPER BOMB was in 3rd
What I like about this pair
They have 3 runs in October
Runs this month
3 Lady Savanah
3 Piper Bomb
1 Footsteps At Dawn
1 Red Avenger
1 Rinty Maginty
1 Everyhouronthehour
1 Primadonia
0 All other horses
None of the other horses
Have raced more than once
LADY SAVANAH unlucky last time
Burst clear should have won
Ridden by an Apprentice that day
May have gone too early/too fast
They have messed around with her trip
Hard to know what her best distance is
But she looked very good last time
Selection
Option 1
£7 Win Bet LADY SAVANAH 7/1
£2 Win Bet FOOTSTEPS AT DAWN 4/1
£1 Win Bet PIPER BOMB 8/1
Option 2
LADY SAVANAH 7/1
Each Way
No strong preference
Option 2 is a lot simpler
So will choose that option
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Cork National Sunday
17 Entered
No weights yet
No markets yet
There should be later today
Once the Bookmaker Cartel
Meet to ensure prices match
Looks a very manageable field
Willie Mullins has just 1 entry
Pont Aven who has 3 chase runs
The joint - lightest raced horse
Pont Aven - 3 Chase runs
The Red Menace - 3 chase runs
The Red Menace is only a 5yo
Almost certain to rule him out
Beyond the pale to bet a 5yo
Pont Aven is a year older
Right now see him as a positive
But going to wait for the weights
Naas November Handicap
No market here either
Had a look at this last night
Looks workable and interesting
Much will depend on topweights
Stratum has a handicap mark of 108
Aidan has a couple weighted high
Need to find out if they take part
Saturday
Ladbrokes Champion Chase
Down Royal 2.25
Delta Work 2/1 Clan Des Obeaux 9/4
Road To Respect 9/4 Snow Falcon 8/1
Alpha Des Obeaux 12/1 Balko Des Flos 12/1
Tout Est Permis 20/1 Mengli Khan 25/1
Shattered Love 25/1
DELTA WORK
Mentioned yesterday
Could be his seasonal debut
This field will reduce
9 entries so far
7 owned by Gigginstown
Potentially this is a mess
Only 3 horses aged 6
Have ran in this in recent years
These finished 1st 2nd and 5th
DELTA WORK looks a positive
CLAN DES OBEAUX is the class horse
This is probably a prep run for him
Nicholls horses are needing a run
But he could still be good enough
Most seasonal debut winners
Had under 13 previous chase runs
Only Kauto Star did it with more
ROAD TO RESPECT has 17 Chases
That sound like a lot first time out
CLAN DES OBEAUX has had 15 runs
Given the choice
DELTA WORK with 6 chase runs
Far less exposed and more progressive
Would probably be the safer bet really
The last 3 winners had prep runs
So too early to rule anything out yet
Your second guessing who will run
Much depends on Gigginstown
Who they want to run
Which they want to win
DELTA WORK though
Looks an early positive to me
Ante Post
Saturday
Wetherby 3.40
Charlie Hall Chase
La Bague Au Roi 7/2 Elegant Escape 4/1
Black Corton 9/2 Aso 5/1 Ballyoptic 5/1
Definitly Red 6/1 Top Ville Ben 8/1
Molly The Dolly 10/1 Vinndication 12/1
Double Shuffle 14/1 Jett 20/1 Atlanta Ablaze 25/1
Just an early look
One of two possible issues
Not doing to get too intense
Incase the race is abandoned
Number of Chase runs
24 Jett
22 Double Shuffle
20 Definitly Red
20 Aso
20 Black Corton
13 Elegant Escape
12 Atlanta Ablaze
11 Ballyoptic
6 Top Ville Ben
5 La Bague Au Roi
4 Molly The Dolly
4 Vinndication
Past winners had these Chase runs
15 14 15 17 5 5 6 8 11 9
11 19 25 13 19 11 19 14
The last 12 winners
Had under 20 Chase runs
17 of the last 18 winners
Had under 20 Chase runs
May be an idea
To oppose the exposed horses
The following all have 20 + chase runs
More than all recent winners if this
JETT - DOUBLE SHUFFLE
DEFINITELY RED - ASO
BLACK CORTON
DEFINITELY RED is a 10 year old
Been 15 years since one his age won
Probably best to stay with
Lighter raced younger chaser
Looked at the last 21 renewals
No horse has won this race
With under 5 previous chase runs
VINNDICATION has 4 Chase runs
MOLLY THE DOLLY has 4 Chase runs
ATLANTA ABLAZE is a mare first time out
Lowest rated horse in the race as well
Look at past 8yo first time out winners
They all had fewer chase runs
Safer Profiles
LE BAGUE AU ROI
ELEGANT ESCAPE
TOP VILLE BEN
BALLYOPTIC
*********************************************************
*********************************************************