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Mathematician 3297

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Mathematician 3297

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Mathematician 3297

Friday August 9th

9 Races Discussed
0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet

Today's Message

Running into a couple of days
Where the weather is in control
Heavy rain sweeping in today
Should see plenty of disruption

Today has 9 previews
All of them this afternoon
All of them weather affected

Thirsk 1.50
Brighton 2.00
Brighton 3.00
Thirsk 3.50
Thirsk 4.20
Brighton 4.30
Thirsk 4.50
Musselburgh 5.10
Curragh 5.15

Strange Friday

Feels very weird
Trying to pick a Friday Bet

When I already know
I am likely to cancel tomorrows bet
Which is named and shamed in FBA !

Strange today for other reasons

Lots of dilemmas

Lots of rain

Most of the bets I like best
Are either very controversial
Or very unfair to stake properly

The best bet of all of them
Could be difficult to get on
And may be the type of bet
Some have never done before

These bets interested me

Brighton 3.00 -MAGIC SHUFFLE 9/4

Thirsk 4.20 - WAR ENSIGN 2/1

Both horses run in tiny fields

If I could get 5/2 about either
I would stake them each way
Getting 1/4 the odds 2 places

MAGIC SHUFFLE best at 9/4
WAR ENSIGN may not be that

I'd have no objections myself
Betting either at 9/4 each way
That would not suit everyone
Not staking either win only

Brighton 2.00

URBAN HIGHWAY4/5

Win Bet

Another bet
Just not suitable for staking
Short price but a big class edge

This feels a really Clever Bet
But it may cause big problems

Brighton 2.00
URBAN HIGHWAY4/5 - 8/11 (1 Place)

Brighton 3.00
MAGIC SHUFFLE 9/4 (2 Place)

Each Way Double

The problem is
Only 4 runners in the 2.00pm
If Urban Highway does not win
The whole bet would be down

I'm not expecting that though
Just very conscious this bet
Could be difficult to get on

Even if its legal and legitimate
Some firms may not know this
And may not allow you to do it

Some people
Will never have done this before
Having an each way double
When 1 of the bets is win only

I think if you have this bet
You may be pleased with the returns

But what I can't afford on a Friday
Lots of emails requesting explanation
And complaints they can not get on
So not staking a bet

Todays Best Bet

Brighton 2.00

URBAN HIGHWAY4/5 - 8/11 (1 Place)

Brighton 3.00

MAGIC SHUFFLE 9/4 (2 Place)

Each Way Double

Thursday's Summary

Extremely accurate message
Which finished P W W P W W
The suggested bet of the day
2 separate each way doubles
Very pleasingly both bets won
Message never had any losers
Some will see that as excellent
Others may just feel frustrated
If they didn't get too involved
Decisions never easy to make
Did not expect a no loser day

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Thirsk 1.50

6/4 Ebony Adams, 3/1 Mrs Dukesbury
6/1 Lady Erimus, Susie Javea, 8/1 Boston Girl
10/1 Callipygian.

Fillies Nursery over 8f

EBONY ADAMS is the class horse
But she has 3 strikes against her
She steps up from 6f to 8f
Her stable are very unreliable
She also has to prove stamina
Neither of her parents had 8f form
CALLIPYGIAN also steps up from 6f
Another from an unreliable stable

MRS DUKESBURY has fewer issues
Did not run her best race last time
But she had draw excuses at Epsom
And has shown more than enough
To think she can win off a rating of 65

Selection

MRS DUKESBURY 11/4- 3/1

Win Bet

Brighton 2.00

Evs Urban Highway
15/8 Nervous Nerys, 5/1 Zaula
14/1 Dandy Belle.

6f Handicap (3yo)

Only 4 runners

URBAN HIGHWAY a clear choice
I was hoping he might be evens
But no surprise he is around 4/5

Given he is a 61 rated horse
Faces 3 opponents rated 48 47 45
And has the most recent run as well
Feel he should be outclassing these
I'd be happy with 4/5 but no shorter

Selection

URBAN HIGHWAY4/5 -10/11

Win Bet

Brighton 3.00

8/11 Cafe Sydney, 11/4 Magic Shuffle
8/1 Hidden Pearl, 10/1 New Expo
14/1 Little Tipple.

3yo Handicap over 12f

MAGIC SHUFFLE topweight rated 65
He is the class horse in the race

HIDDEN PEARL is 2nd topweight
There are concerns about her
She is a filly and short of runs this year
There is no guarantee she will stay 12f
She looks more than beatable to me

If we can get her beaten
MAGIC SHUFFLE rated 65
Faces a modest 0-54 handicap

The race may come down to
CAFE SYDNEY getting home or not
Won recently over 10f on fast ground
But this could be 12f on soft ground
Not something I'd risk from her sire

Surely in such a modest race
MAGIC SHUFFLE is the right bet
Another I'd want to bet each way
Should the prices allow that

Selection

MAGIC SHUFFLE

Each Way if 5/2 or better

Win Bet if 9/4 or shorter

Thirsk 3.50

10/11 Dan's Dream, 7/2 Remarkable
6/1 Raydiance, The Broghie Man
10/1 Three Saints Bay.

7f Conditions race

DAN'S DREAM is odds on
There is an argument he should be
Highest rated horse in the race
Gets weight from every other runner
But she is far from bombproof

DANS DREAM is a 4yo filly
She has to overcome a 51 day absence
THE BROGHIE MAN has a 56 day break
Co-incidentally both sired by Cityscape

Probably not significant
Cirtscapes runners 6f or more
Class 4 or higher like this
Have yet to win without recent runs
Those absent over 33 days are 0-24

Just not comfortable with a filly
Who has a nasty 8 weeks absence
Taking on smart 100 + rated horses

REMARKABLE is 2nd best rated
More comfortable with his profile
I was considering him each way
With 2 places using 1/4 the odds

But decided to split stake the race

Runs in the last 2 months

3 Raydiance
3 Three Saints Bay
1 Dan's Dream
1 Remarkable
1 The Broghie Man

THREE SAINTS BAY 9/1
RAYDIANCE 10/1

May not leap off the page
Might not appeal at the weights
But if you look at the last 2 months
Both raced 3 times in that period
Twice more than the other horses

Because of that
In a small field the best approach
May be the ugly spilt stake option

Selection

£7 Win Bet RAYDIANCE 12/1

£2 Win Bet REMARKABLE 7/2

£1 Win Bet THREE SAINTS BAY 9/1

Thirsk 4.20

4/7 Society Star, 2/1 War Ensign
12/1 Marvel, 33/1 Final Legacy
100/1 Thornton Katie.

5f Novice

Looks a 2 horse race
Unless MARVEL improves significantly
From what looks a very average debut

Should concern just 2 horses

SOCIETY STAR 8/11
WAR ENSIGN 2/1

If you look at their origins

SOCIETY STAR started a career
As a modest £3500 purchase

WAR ENSIGN was with Aidan O'Brien
Home bred type Magnier/Tabor owned

SOCIETY STAR has the best figures
But not by much and he is modest

WAR ENSIGN's 3 year old season
Can be forgiven given his stable
But he has upgraded yards this year
He is showing much more right now

His last race at Redcar was quite good
Started on on side of the track
Ended up on the other side in 5th
If this 5f suits him he could take this

Shouldn't be much between them
The bet here could be the 4 year old
I would prefer to go each way if 5/2
But failing that he is a win bet

Selection

WAR ENSIGN

Each Way if 5/2 or better
Win only if 9/4 or shorter

Brighton 4.30

3/1 Tawaafoq, 4/1 Cent Flying,
4/1 Knockout Blow, 8/1 Wild Flower
10/1 Napping, 25/1 Noble Deed
33/1 Free Talkin.

6f handicap

7 runners
Following 3 non runners

The shape of this race suggests
The bottom 2 horses in the weights
Will probably lack the class to win

TAWAAFOX is unacceptable
Underraced with 1 run this season
All his rivals have more recent runs
NAPPING a 6yo mare with an absence
Did not have enough positives

KNOCKOUT BLOW has a chance
Won a selling handicap last time
But modest exposed and 31 days off

CENT FLYING is the compromise bet
Has enough ability more than most

I was planning each way
Until 3 non runners spoilt this

Selection

CENT FLYING 3/1

Each WAY

Thirsk 4.50

6/4 Radjash, 9/2 Alqaab, Fard, 6/1 Blindingly
10/1 Caledonian Gold, 12/1 Dominannie
14/1 Isabella Ruby, 33/1 Henrietta's Dream
33/1 Yorkshire Rover, 66/1 Bevsboy,
100/1 Red Hot Fusion.

6f Maiden Handicap

RADJASH has positives
Easy to see why he is favourite
Has the most consistent numbers

What I don't want to do
In a low grade sprint handicap
Bet a horse with fewer recent runs
Than any of his significant rivals today

RADJASH has raced once in 74 days
I'd want more than that at this track

ALQAAB did not appeal much at 6f
His record and breeding stats
Suggest he may not get home here
May not stay much more than 5f

BLINDINGLY is interesting
Consider that as a 68 rated horse
He only faces a 0-57 class handicap
He has a class edge on the numbers
The problem that he throws up

BLINDINGLY has no form over 6f
All his form is over longer trips
Most of it came over 2f longer
Damsire has a 12.5f stamina index
Will this 6f be too sharp for him

Last time he raced over 7 furlongs
BLINDINGLY was a respectable 3rd
FARD though beat him in 2nd place
He was ahead of him at the 6f point
And he has twice raced since then
FARD looks the mush safer option

Selection

FARD 9/2

Each Way

Musselburgh 5.10

8/11 Euro Implosion, 7/2 Flood Defence
11/2 Dew Pond, 16/1 Lyford,
20/1 Bogardus, Seven For A Pound
25/1 Unite The Clans, 50/1 Shakiah.

12f Handicap

Not many can win this race
SLEEPDANCER too inexperienced
Horrible profile from a 7f race
FRAME RATE very unconvincing
FLOOD DEFENCE is topweight
But a mare with 1 run in 157 days

Stay with these 2 horses

EURO IMPLOSION 5/4
DEW POND 5/1

They are the fittest horses
Who have the shortest absences
Proven over trip and soft ground

The dilemma is not the shortlist
It is how to select and stake them
DEW POND each way is one option
Could also have a win bet + saver

Based on last time figures

EURO IMPLOSION should win

The best way of staking this bet

£5 Win EURO IMPLOSION 5/4

£5 Place DEW POND 4/5

That is the bet I would endorse
That is the bet I would stake
But not everyone can get this on

If you do manage to get on
You have a better bet than this
Which I will make the final selection
Simply because more can access it

Selection

3 Non runners
Killed Plan A

Going with a forecast

EURO IMPLOSION to win
DEW POND to be second

Curragh 5.15

3/1 Hong Kong, 4/1 Recall The Show 9/2 Sherpa
6/1 Paradiso, 10/1 Degraves 10/1 Fiscal Prudence
12/1 Leadership Race 12/1 Sinawann, 14/1 Meaningful Vote
16/1 Bright Idea, 25/1 Manhattan Dandy, 33/1 Bo's Beech
33/1 Convincer, 33/1 Simply True, 33/1 Wyett Earp
50/1 Lady Jane Wilde, Troop Commander
66/1 Londonofficecallin, Taty Gold.

7f Maiden

Lots of dead wood
Assumptions must be made

HONG KONG 5/2 favourite
Not convinced he will get home
Smell stamina limitations with him

Aidan throws several at the race
Joseph has a couple as well

Got to be a guess

BRIGHT IDEA - Saver option 8/1
RECALL THE SHOW - Saver option 11/2
One of two others can't be discounted

Going to split stake this
Win bet and a match bet

Selection

£5 Win Bet SHERPA 5/2 +

£5 Match Bet

Sherpa to beat Hong Kong 10/11 +

FUTURE BETTING ANGLES

Mentioned a horse yesterday
I planned to oppose tomorrow
The weather has scuppered this

Premier League

Rollover Challenge

2 Bets

Both £20 Stakes

Running side by side

Rules are simple

Betfair prices only

Bet 1 (£20)

Bet Liverpool in every game
Bet Man City in every game
Doubling stakes each time

Bet 2 (£20)

Bet Liverpool Draw no Bet
Bet Man City Draw no Bet
Doubling stakes each time

How it starts

Liverpool v Norwich (Tonight)
West Ham v Man City (Saturday)

Bet 1

£20 Liverpool at 1.16 on Betfair
Place the complete returns
On to Man City at 1.27
When they play Saturday

Bet 2

£20 Liverpool (Draw no Bet) 1.04
Place the complete returns
Onto Man City (Draw no Bet) 1.09

Saturdays Man City game
Starts early 12.30pm kick off
So if the Liverpool game goes well
Place the City bet straight away

Whatever the returns are
They go on next weeks games

The aim on both bets

Turn the two original £20 Stakes
Into as much money as possible

No particular end target
See how we feel as we go

Will take a while to win much
But it will soon build up quickly
Assuming both keep winning
If the bet loses start it all again

Last season

First 7 fixtures

Liverpool finished W W W W W W D

Man City finished W W D W W W W

They played each other in week 8

Saturday

Shergar Cup

Not sure how much coverage
This odd meeting will be given
Won't decide that until later on

Sent some Generic Statistics
The following horses fail them

Generic Statistic Failures

Ascot 1.05 - Danzeno 3/1
Ascot 1.05 - Caspian Prince 8/1
Ascot 1.05 - Lancelot Du Lac 10/1
Ascot 1.05 - Foolaad 16/1
Ascot 1.05 - Final Venture 6/1
Ascot 1.05 - Corinthia Knight 5/1

Ascot 1.40 - Alfredo 12/1
Ascot 1.40 - Eddystone Rock 7/1
Ascot 1.40 - Aircraft Carrier 12/1

Ascot 2.15 - Restorer 12/1
Ascot 2.15 - Indianapolis 132

Ascot 2.50 - Breden 20/1

There are 12 horses
That fail generic statistics

With 6 of these
In the opening 5f Handicap
That may be a race to preview

It is asking far too much
To hope Ascot avoids rain

Ascot 1.05

If I knew the ground would be fast
Then I's stake tomorrows bet now

Stone of Destiny 8/1 each way
On fast ground he'd be a main bet

But he has no softer ground form
Expecting rain to scupper the bet
Anyway that is Saturdays problem

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