When I already know I am likely to cancel tomorrows bet Which is named and shamed in FBA !
Strange today for other reasons
Lots of dilemmas
Lots of rain
Most of the bets I like best Are either very controversial Or very unfair to stake properly
The best bet of all of them Could be difficult to get on And may be the type of bet Some have never done before
These bets interested me
Brighton 3.00 -MAGIC SHUFFLE 9/4
Thirsk 4.20 - WAR ENSIGN 2/1
Both horses run in tiny fields
If I could get 5/2 about either I would stake them each way Getting 1/4 the odds 2 places
MAGIC SHUFFLE best at 9/4 WAR ENSIGN may not be that
I'd have no objections myself Betting either at 9/4 each way That would not suit everyone Not staking either win only
Brighton 2.00
URBAN HIGHWAY4/5
Win Bet
Another bet Just not suitable for staking Short price but a big class edge
This feels a really Clever Bet But it may cause big problems
Brighton 2.00 URBAN HIGHWAY4/5 - 8/11 (1 Place)
Brighton 3.00 MAGIC SHUFFLE 9/4 (2 Place)
Each Way Double
The problem is Only 4 runners in the 2.00pm If Urban Highway does not win The whole bet would be down
I'm not expecting that though Just very conscious this bet Could be difficult to get on
Even if its legal and legitimate Some firms may not know this And may not allow you to do it
Some people Will never have done this before Having an each way double When 1 of the bets is win only
I think if you have this bet You may be pleased with the returns
But what I can't afford on a Friday Lots of emails requesting explanation And complaints they can not get on So not staking a bet
Todays Best Bet
Brighton 2.00
URBAN HIGHWAY4/5 - 8/11 (1 Place)
Brighton 3.00
MAGIC SHUFFLE 9/4 (2 Place)
Each Way Double
Thursday's Summary
Extremely accurate message Which finished P W W P W W The suggested bet of the day 2 separate each way doubles Very pleasingly both bets won Message never had any losers Some will see that as excellent Others may just feel frustrated If they didn't get too involved Decisions never easy to make Did not expect a no loser day
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Thirsk 1.50
6/4 Ebony Adams, 3/1 Mrs Dukesbury 6/1 Lady Erimus, Susie Javea, 8/1 Boston Girl 10/1 Callipygian.
Fillies Nursery over 8f
EBONY ADAMS is the class horse But she has 3 strikes against her She steps up from 6f to 8f Her stable are very unreliable She also has to prove stamina Neither of her parents had 8f form CALLIPYGIAN also steps up from 6f Another from an unreliable stable
MRS DUKESBURY has fewer issues Did not run her best race last time But she had draw excuses at Epsom And has shown more than enough To think she can win off a rating of 65
URBAN HIGHWAY a clear choice I was hoping he might be evens But no surprise he is around 4/5
Given he is a 61 rated horse Faces 3 opponents rated 48 47 45 And has the most recent run as well Feel he should be outclassing these I'd be happy with 4/5 but no shorter
Selection
URBAN HIGHWAY4/5 -10/11
Win Bet
Brighton 3.00
8/11 Cafe Sydney, 11/4 Magic Shuffle 8/1 Hidden Pearl, 10/1 New Expo 14/1 Little Tipple.
3yo Handicap over 12f
MAGIC SHUFFLE topweight rated 65 He is the class horse in the race
HIDDEN PEARL is 2nd topweight There are concerns about her She is a filly and short of runs this year There is no guarantee she will stay 12f She looks more than beatable to me
If we can get her beaten MAGIC SHUFFLE rated 65 Faces a modest 0-54 handicap
The race may come down to CAFE SYDNEY getting home or not Won recently over 10f on fast ground But this could be 12f on soft ground Not something I'd risk from her sire
Surely in such a modest race MAGIC SHUFFLE is the right bet Another I'd want to bet each way Should the prices allow that
Selection
MAGIC SHUFFLE
Each Way if 5/2 or better
Win Bet if 9/4 or shorter
Thirsk 3.50
10/11 Dan's Dream, 7/2 Remarkable 6/1 Raydiance, The Broghie Man 10/1 Three Saints Bay.
7f Conditions race
DAN'S DREAM is odds on There is an argument he should be Highest rated horse in the race Gets weight from every other runner But she is far from bombproof
DANS DREAM is a 4yo filly She has to overcome a 51 day absence THE BROGHIE MAN has a 56 day break Co-incidentally both sired by Cityscape
Probably not significant Cirtscapes runners 6f or more Class 4 or higher like this Have yet to win without recent runs Those absent over 33 days are 0-24
Just not comfortable with a filly Who has a nasty 8 weeks absence Taking on smart 100 + rated horses
REMARKABLE is 2nd best rated More comfortable with his profile I was considering him each way With 2 places using 1/4 the odds
But decided to split stake the race
Runs in the last 2 months
3 Raydiance 3 Three Saints Bay 1 Dan's Dream 1 Remarkable 1 The Broghie Man
THREE SAINTS BAY 9/1 RAYDIANCE 10/1
May not leap off the page Might not appeal at the weights But if you look at the last 2 months Both raced 3 times in that period Twice more than the other horses
Because of that In a small field the best approach May be the ugly spilt stake option
Selection
£7 Win Bet RAYDIANCE 12/1
£2 Win Bet REMARKABLE 7/2
£1 Win Bet THREE SAINTS BAY 9/1
Thirsk 4.20
4/7 Society Star, 2/1 War Ensign 12/1 Marvel, 33/1 Final Legacy 100/1 Thornton Katie.
5f Novice
Looks a 2 horse race Unless MARVEL improves significantly From what looks a very average debut
Should concern just 2 horses
SOCIETY STAR 8/11 WAR ENSIGN 2/1
If you look at their origins
SOCIETY STAR started a career As a modest £3500 purchase
WAR ENSIGN was with Aidan O'Brien Home bred type Magnier/Tabor owned
SOCIETY STAR has the best figures But not by much and he is modest
WAR ENSIGN's 3 year old season Can be forgiven given his stable But he has upgraded yards this year He is showing much more right now
His last race at Redcar was quite good Started on on side of the track Ended up on the other side in 5th If this 5f suits him he could take this
Shouldn't be much between them The bet here could be the 4 year old I would prefer to go each way if 5/2 But failing that he is a win bet
Selection
WAR ENSIGN
Each Way if 5/2 or better Win only if 9/4 or shorter
The shape of this race suggests The bottom 2 horses in the weights Will probably lack the class to win
TAWAAFOX is unacceptable Underraced with 1 run this season All his rivals have more recent runs NAPPING a 6yo mare with an absence Did not have enough positives
KNOCKOUT BLOW has a chance Won a selling handicap last time But modest exposed and 31 days off
CENT FLYING is the compromise bet Has enough ability more than most
I was planning each way Until 3 non runners spoilt this
RADJASH has positives Easy to see why he is favourite Has the most consistent numbers
What I don't want to do In a low grade sprint handicap Bet a horse with fewer recent runs Than any of his significant rivals today
RADJASH has raced once in 74 days I'd want more than that at this track
ALQAAB did not appeal much at 6f His record and breeding stats Suggest he may not get home here May not stay much more than 5f
BLINDINGLY is interesting Consider that as a 68 rated horse He only faces a 0-57 class handicap He has a class edge on the numbers The problem that he throws up
BLINDINGLY has no form over 6f All his form is over longer trips Most of it came over 2f longer Damsire has a 12.5f stamina index Will this 6f be too sharp for him
Last time he raced over 7 furlongs BLINDINGLY was a respectable 3rd FARD though beat him in 2nd place He was ahead of him at the 6f point And he has twice raced since then FARD looks the mush safer option
Selection
FARD 9/2
Each Way
Musselburgh 5.10
8/11 Euro Implosion, 7/2 Flood Defence 11/2 Dew Pond, 16/1 Lyford, 20/1 Bogardus, Seven For A Pound 25/1 Unite The Clans, 50/1 Shakiah.
12f Handicap
Not many can win this race SLEEPDANCER too inexperienced Horrible profile from a 7f race FRAME RATE very unconvincing FLOOD DEFENCE is topweight But a mare with 1 run in 157 days
Stay with these 2 horses
EURO IMPLOSION 5/4 DEW POND 5/1
They are the fittest horses Who have the shortest absences Proven over trip and soft ground
The dilemma is not the shortlist It is how to select and stake them DEW POND each way is one option Could also have a win bet + saver
Based on last time figures
EURO IMPLOSION should win
The best way of staking this bet
£5 Win EURO IMPLOSION 5/4
£5 Place DEW POND 4/5
That is the bet I would endorse That is the bet I would stake But not everyone can get this on
If you do manage to get on You have a better bet than this Which I will make the final selection Simply because more can access it
Comments on Mathematician 3297
Senior Member
Usergroup: Moderators
Joined: Nov 05, 2003
Total Topics: 6449
Total Comments: 15225
Posted Aug 09, 2019 - 02:56 AM:
Mathematician 3297
Friday August 9th
9 Races Discussed
0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet
Today's Message
Running into a couple of days
Where the weather is in control
Heavy rain sweeping in today
Should see plenty of disruption
Today has 9 previews
All of them this afternoon
All of them weather affected
Thirsk 1.50
Brighton 2.00
Brighton 3.00
Thirsk 3.50
Thirsk 4.20
Brighton 4.30
Thirsk 4.50
Musselburgh 5.10
Curragh 5.15
Strange Friday
Feels very weird
Trying to pick a Friday Bet
When I already know
I am likely to cancel tomorrows bet
Which is named and shamed in FBA !
Strange today for other reasons
Lots of dilemmas
Lots of rain
Most of the bets I like best
Are either very controversial
Or very unfair to stake properly
The best bet of all of them
Could be difficult to get on
And may be the type of bet
Some have never done before
These bets interested me
Brighton 3.00 -MAGIC SHUFFLE 9/4
Thirsk 4.20 - WAR ENSIGN 2/1
Both horses run in tiny fields
If I could get 5/2 about either
I would stake them each way
Getting 1/4 the odds 2 places
MAGIC SHUFFLE best at 9/4
WAR ENSIGN may not be that
I'd have no objections myself
Betting either at 9/4 each way
That would not suit everyone
Not staking either win only
Brighton 2.00
URBAN HIGHWAY4/5
Win Bet
Another bet
Just not suitable for staking
Short price but a big class edge
This feels a really Clever Bet
But it may cause big problems
Brighton 2.00
URBAN HIGHWAY4/5 - 8/11 (1 Place)
Brighton 3.00
MAGIC SHUFFLE 9/4 (2 Place)
Each Way Double
The problem is
Only 4 runners in the 2.00pm
If Urban Highway does not win
The whole bet would be down
I'm not expecting that though
Just very conscious this bet
Could be difficult to get on
Even if its legal and legitimate
Some firms may not know this
And may not allow you to do it
Some people
Will never have done this before
Having an each way double
When 1 of the bets is win only
I think if you have this bet
You may be pleased with the returns
But what I can't afford on a Friday
Lots of emails requesting explanation
And complaints they can not get on
So not staking a bet
Todays Best Bet
Brighton 2.00
URBAN HIGHWAY4/5 - 8/11 (1 Place)
Brighton 3.00
MAGIC SHUFFLE 9/4 (2 Place)
Each Way Double
Thursday's Summary
Extremely accurate message
Which finished P W W P W W
The suggested bet of the day
2 separate each way doubles
Very pleasingly both bets won
Message never had any losers
Some will see that as excellent
Others may just feel frustrated
If they didn't get too involved
Decisions never easy to make
Did not expect a no loser day
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Thirsk 1.50
6/4 Ebony Adams, 3/1 Mrs Dukesbury
6/1 Lady Erimus, Susie Javea, 8/1 Boston Girl
10/1 Callipygian.
Fillies Nursery over 8f
EBONY ADAMS is the class horse
But she has 3 strikes against her
She steps up from 6f to 8f
Her stable are very unreliable
She also has to prove stamina
Neither of her parents had 8f form
CALLIPYGIAN also steps up from 6f
Another from an unreliable stable
MRS DUKESBURY has fewer issues
Did not run her best race last time
But she had draw excuses at Epsom
And has shown more than enough
To think she can win off a rating of 65
Selection
MRS DUKESBURY 11/4- 3/1
Win Bet
Brighton 2.00
Evs Urban Highway
15/8 Nervous Nerys, 5/1 Zaula
14/1 Dandy Belle.
6f Handicap (3yo)
Only 4 runners
URBAN HIGHWAY a clear choice
I was hoping he might be evens
But no surprise he is around 4/5
Given he is a 61 rated horse
Faces 3 opponents rated 48 47 45
And has the most recent run as well
Feel he should be outclassing these
I'd be happy with 4/5 but no shorter
Selection
URBAN HIGHWAY4/5 -10/11
Win Bet
Brighton 3.00
8/11 Cafe Sydney, 11/4 Magic Shuffle
8/1 Hidden Pearl, 10/1 New Expo
14/1 Little Tipple.
3yo Handicap over 12f
MAGIC SHUFFLE topweight rated 65
He is the class horse in the race
HIDDEN PEARL is 2nd topweight
There are concerns about her
She is a filly and short of runs this year
There is no guarantee she will stay 12f
She looks more than beatable to me
If we can get her beaten
MAGIC SHUFFLE rated 65
Faces a modest 0-54 handicap
The race may come down to
CAFE SYDNEY getting home or not
Won recently over 10f on fast ground
But this could be 12f on soft ground
Not something I'd risk from her sire
Surely in such a modest race
MAGIC SHUFFLE is the right bet
Another I'd want to bet each way
Should the prices allow that
Selection
MAGIC SHUFFLE
Each Way if 5/2 or better
Win Bet if 9/4 or shorter
Thirsk 3.50
10/11 Dan's Dream, 7/2 Remarkable
6/1 Raydiance, The Broghie Man
10/1 Three Saints Bay.
7f Conditions race
DAN'S DREAM is odds on
There is an argument he should be
Highest rated horse in the race
Gets weight from every other runner
But she is far from bombproof
DANS DREAM is a 4yo filly
She has to overcome a 51 day absence
THE BROGHIE MAN has a 56 day break
Co-incidentally both sired by Cityscape
Probably not significant
Cirtscapes runners 6f or more
Class 4 or higher like this
Have yet to win without recent runs
Those absent over 33 days are 0-24
Just not comfortable with a filly
Who has a nasty 8 weeks absence
Taking on smart 100 + rated horses
REMARKABLE is 2nd best rated
More comfortable with his profile
I was considering him each way
With 2 places using 1/4 the odds
But decided to split stake the race
Runs in the last 2 months
3 Raydiance
3 Three Saints Bay
1 Dan's Dream
1 Remarkable
1 The Broghie Man
THREE SAINTS BAY 9/1
RAYDIANCE 10/1
May not leap off the page
Might not appeal at the weights
But if you look at the last 2 months
Both raced 3 times in that period
Twice more than the other horses
Because of that
In a small field the best approach
May be the ugly spilt stake option
Selection
£7 Win Bet RAYDIANCE 12/1
£2 Win Bet REMARKABLE 7/2
£1 Win Bet THREE SAINTS BAY 9/1
Thirsk 4.20
4/7 Society Star, 2/1 War Ensign
12/1 Marvel, 33/1 Final Legacy
100/1 Thornton Katie.
5f Novice
Looks a 2 horse race
Unless MARVEL improves significantly
From what looks a very average debut
Should concern just 2 horses
SOCIETY STAR 8/11
WAR ENSIGN 2/1
If you look at their origins
SOCIETY STAR started a career
As a modest £3500 purchase
WAR ENSIGN was with Aidan O'Brien
Home bred type Magnier/Tabor owned
SOCIETY STAR has the best figures
But not by much and he is modest
WAR ENSIGN's 3 year old season
Can be forgiven given his stable
But he has upgraded yards this year
He is showing much more right now
His last race at Redcar was quite good
Started on on side of the track
Ended up on the other side in 5th
If this 5f suits him he could take this
Shouldn't be much between them
The bet here could be the 4 year old
I would prefer to go each way if 5/2
But failing that he is a win bet
Selection
WAR ENSIGN
Each Way if 5/2 or better
Win only if 9/4 or shorter
Brighton 4.30
3/1 Tawaafoq, 4/1 Cent Flying,
4/1 Knockout Blow, 8/1 Wild Flower
10/1 Napping, 25/1 Noble Deed
33/1 Free Talkin.
6f handicap
7 runners
Following 3 non runners
The shape of this race suggests
The bottom 2 horses in the weights
Will probably lack the class to win
TAWAAFOX is unacceptable
Underraced with 1 run this season
All his rivals have more recent runs
NAPPING a 6yo mare with an absence
Did not have enough positives
KNOCKOUT BLOW has a chance
Won a selling handicap last time
But modest exposed and 31 days off
CENT FLYING is the compromise bet
Has enough ability more than most
I was planning each way
Until 3 non runners spoilt this
Selection
CENT FLYING 3/1
Each WAY
Thirsk 4.50
6/4 Radjash, 9/2 Alqaab, Fard, 6/1 Blindingly
10/1 Caledonian Gold, 12/1 Dominannie
14/1 Isabella Ruby, 33/1 Henrietta's Dream
33/1 Yorkshire Rover, 66/1 Bevsboy,
100/1 Red Hot Fusion.
6f Maiden Handicap
RADJASH has positives
Easy to see why he is favourite
Has the most consistent numbers
What I don't want to do
In a low grade sprint handicap
Bet a horse with fewer recent runs
Than any of his significant rivals today
RADJASH has raced once in 74 days
I'd want more than that at this track
ALQAAB did not appeal much at 6f
His record and breeding stats
Suggest he may not get home here
May not stay much more than 5f
BLINDINGLY is interesting
Consider that as a 68 rated horse
He only faces a 0-57 class handicap
He has a class edge on the numbers
The problem that he throws up
BLINDINGLY has no form over 6f
All his form is over longer trips
Most of it came over 2f longer
Damsire has a 12.5f stamina index
Will this 6f be too sharp for him
Last time he raced over 7 furlongs
BLINDINGLY was a respectable 3rd
FARD though beat him in 2nd place
He was ahead of him at the 6f point
And he has twice raced since then
FARD looks the mush safer option
Selection
FARD 9/2
Each Way
Musselburgh 5.10
8/11 Euro Implosion, 7/2 Flood Defence
11/2 Dew Pond, 16/1 Lyford,
20/1 Bogardus, Seven For A Pound
25/1 Unite The Clans, 50/1 Shakiah.
12f Handicap
Not many can win this race
SLEEPDANCER too inexperienced
Horrible profile from a 7f race
FRAME RATE very unconvincing
FLOOD DEFENCE is topweight
But a mare with 1 run in 157 days
Stay with these 2 horses
EURO IMPLOSION 5/4
DEW POND 5/1
They are the fittest horses
Who have the shortest absences
Proven over trip and soft ground
The dilemma is not the shortlist
It is how to select and stake them
DEW POND each way is one option
Could also have a win bet + saver
Based on last time figures
EURO IMPLOSION should win
The best way of staking this bet
£5 Win EURO IMPLOSION 5/4
£5 Place DEW POND 4/5
That is the bet I would endorse
That is the bet I would stake
But not everyone can get this on
If you do manage to get on
You have a better bet than this
Which I will make the final selection
Simply because more can access it
Selection
3 Non runners
Killed Plan A
Going with a forecast
EURO IMPLOSION to win
DEW POND to be second
Curragh 5.15
3/1 Hong Kong, 4/1 Recall The Show 9/2 Sherpa
6/1 Paradiso, 10/1 Degraves 10/1 Fiscal Prudence
12/1 Leadership Race 12/1 Sinawann, 14/1 Meaningful Vote
16/1 Bright Idea, 25/1 Manhattan Dandy, 33/1 Bo's Beech
33/1 Convincer, 33/1 Simply True, 33/1 Wyett Earp
50/1 Lady Jane Wilde, Troop Commander
66/1 Londonofficecallin, Taty Gold.
7f Maiden
Lots of dead wood
Assumptions must be made
HONG KONG 5/2 favourite
Not convinced he will get home
Smell stamina limitations with him
Aidan throws several at the race
Joseph has a couple as well
Got to be a guess
BRIGHT IDEA - Saver option 8/1
RECALL THE SHOW - Saver option 11/2
One of two others can't be discounted
Going to split stake this
Win bet and a match bet
Selection
£5 Win Bet SHERPA 5/2 +
£5 Match Bet
Sherpa to beat Hong Kong 10/11 +
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Mentioned a horse yesterday
I planned to oppose tomorrow
The weather has scuppered this
Premier League
Rollover Challenge
2 Bets
Both £20 Stakes
Running side by side
Rules are simple
Betfair prices only
Bet 1 (£20)
Bet Liverpool in every game
Bet Man City in every game
Doubling stakes each time
Bet 2 (£20)
Bet Liverpool Draw no Bet
Bet Man City Draw no Bet
Doubling stakes each time
How it starts
Liverpool v Norwich (Tonight)
West Ham v Man City (Saturday)
Bet 1
£20 Liverpool at 1.16 on Betfair
Place the complete returns
On to Man City at 1.27
When they play Saturday
Bet 2
£20 Liverpool (Draw no Bet) 1.04
Place the complete returns
Onto Man City (Draw no Bet) 1.09
Saturdays Man City game
Starts early 12.30pm kick off
So if the Liverpool game goes well
Place the City bet straight away
Whatever the returns are
They go on next weeks games
The aim on both bets
Turn the two original £20 Stakes
Into as much money as possible
No particular end target
See how we feel as we go
Will take a while to win much
But it will soon build up quickly
Assuming both keep winning
If the bet loses start it all again
Last season
First 7 fixtures
Liverpool finished W W W W W W D
Man City finished W W D W W W W
They played each other in week 8
Saturday
Shergar Cup
Not sure how much coverage
This odd meeting will be given
Won't decide that until later on
Sent some Generic Statistics
The following horses fail them
Generic Statistic Failures
Ascot 1.05 - Danzeno 3/1
Ascot 1.05 - Caspian Prince 8/1
Ascot 1.05 - Lancelot Du Lac 10/1
Ascot 1.05 - Foolaad 16/1
Ascot 1.05 - Final Venture 6/1
Ascot 1.05 - Corinthia Knight 5/1
Ascot 1.40 - Alfredo 12/1
Ascot 1.40 - Eddystone Rock 7/1
Ascot 1.40 - Aircraft Carrier 12/1
Ascot 2.15 - Restorer 12/1
Ascot 2.15 - Indianapolis 132
Ascot 2.50 - Breden 20/1
There are 12 horses
That fail generic statistics
With 6 of these
In the opening 5f Handicap
That may be a race to preview
It is asking far too much
To hope Ascot avoids rain
Ascot 1.05
If I knew the ground would be fast
Then I's stake tomorrows bet now
Stone of Destiny 8/1 each way
On fast ground he'd be a main bet
But he has no softer ground form
Expecting rain to scupper the bet
Anyway that is Saturdays problem
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