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Mathematician 3217

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Mathematician 3217

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Mathematician 3217

Friday May 10th

6 Races Discussed
0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet

No Bet Today

Betting The Message

Quite a tame and lame message
Well below the normal standard

My view not a strong message
Became obvious very early on
We should aim for lower stakes
Focus more on Saturday-Sunday

6 Previews

Chester 1.50
Ascot 2.35
Chester 3.00
Chester 3.35
Ascot 3.45
Nottingham 7.20

Good Sunday Messages
Are often borne from bad Fridays

That sounds like Pompous spin
But there a certain truth in that

Have a horse in mind for Sunday
Thats better than anything today

Going to put this down as a dud
We might still have winners later
Few I'd deserve to take credit for

But the only bet I found today

Based on any skill or ingenuity

Was a shorter priced Ascot bet

Ascot 2.35

£9 Win Bet Cape Cavalli 11/10

£1 Win Bet Kesia 15/2

Rewards not there for a big bet
So making it my best bet today
But not a day to invest much in

9 meetings tomorrow
Going to be a real slog
But should produce better

Thursday's Summary

Yesterdays bet finished only 4th
It was one of those annoying bets
Where nothing went right for him
Both before the race and after it
His price collapsed far too quickly
Then we had the two non runners
Left us with only 2 places available
INSPIREUS ended up 5/4 favourite
During the race nothing went right
Interfered with by this loose horse
Same horse bumped him later on
He dad excuses and no luck at all
But i couldn't say he'd have won
Not even sure he'd have placed
The bet was a bit of calamity really
Both before the race and during it
Otherwise we did score punches
MORANDO was a beautiful winner
Hindsight suggest we understaked
Should really have made him a bet
Always easier to see once they win
Think I've read Chester quite well
Lincoln Park and Circus Maximus
Both won improving Chester's tally
There were losers and some errors
Not least the days highlighted bet
Generally reading things quite well

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Chester 1.50

4/1 Ptarmigan Ridge, 8/1 Love Dreams, Shady McCoy
10/1 Another Batt, Baraweez, Cold Stare, 12/1 Mazyoun
14/1 Aces, 14/1 Dragons Tail 14/1 Gabrial The Saint,
14/1 Sha La La La Lee, 16/1 Al Erayg 20/1 Brian The Snail,

Class 2 Handicap
7f and 127 yards

Not strong interest in this
Not time effective to do this
My angles suggest a low draw
No high drawn horse has won this
A horse younger than 9 years old
With a decent and recent run
Few horses fitted the angles
SHA LA LA LA LEE was one option
Overpriced as one of the outsiders
But better Sand form than on the grass
PTARMIGAN RIDGE came out well
If you look at Racing Post ratings
He has just recorded a lifetime best

I think one of his advantages
Are the flaws in his close market rivals
BARAWEEZ is older than all past winners
Comes here well beaten only 6 days ago
Raising doubts about form and fitness
SHADY MCCOY has the same problem
COLD STARE is another market danger
Also well beaten on his 1 run this season
Held by Ptarmigan Ridge on that run
Needs to show a lot more than he did there
LOVE DREAMS has the widest of draws
GABRIAL THE SAINT is rejected from 5f

PTARMIGAN RIDGE looks best
SHA LA LA LA LEE looks a saver

Selection

£9 Win Bet PTARMIGAN RIDGE 11/4

£1 Win Bet SHA LA LA LA LEE 14/1

Ascot 2.35

10/11 Cape Cavalli, 15/8 Swift Wing, 8/1 Kesia,
12/1 Imperium, 25/1 Manucci, 100/1 Aleatoric
100/1 Cherry Cola.

12f Maiden race

Only a few look easy to like
IMPERIUM is one of those
But he is a drifting unraced horse
Trained by Roger Charlton as well
You would expect him to need this

KESIA is an unraced filly
Her main dangers are colts
The Racing Post point out
That she looks a second string

John Gosden trains 2 horses
SWIFT WING 6/4 and KESIA 8/1

SWIFT WING does look favoured
But something bothers me with him

SWIFT WING is sired by Pivotal

Journeyman Sire
Who has had 1763 runners so far
Hardly a days go by without one running

If I look at unraced horses
That were sired by Pivotal
Only 1 of them won on debut
At distances beyond 11 furlongs

That horse was Topaz Clear
He won a 4 runner race in Ireland
The ground was heavy that day
And the racereaders comments said

"A race run at a farcical pace most of the way"

No other horse from a very busy sire
Has won first time out over this far
This is a Grade 1 track an uphill finish
So I feel we should turn this horse down

CAPE CAVELLI has a run
Racing Post Rating of 87 is decent
He has an entry in the Dante as well
Have to see him as the safer choice
KESIA may be worth a saver bet
Whilst she might be the stable no 2
She did cost 300 grand to be fair
And whoever chose who rides which
Will not have known about the Pivotal stat

Selection

£9 Win Bet CAPE CAVELLI 11/10

£1 Win Bet KESIA 7/1- 8/1

Chester 3.00

9/2 Epaulement, 11/2 Frankuus, 6/1 Restorer
7/1 Aasheq, 8/1 Dukhan, Sputnik Planum, 10/1 Aquarium
10/1 Finniston Farm, 12/1 Genetics, 20/1 Banksea
25/1 Gossip Column.

10f Handicap

This is a Mess
Plenty of seasonal debutants
In a race where many past winners
Including the last 2 of those
Have won with long absences

The horse I liked best
Does not fit the pattern of past winners

AQUARIUM is the fittest horse
He is the class horse with topweight
He is clearly the fittest horses in the race

My angles would point out
No recent returner has won this race
No winner has won with his weight either
So my angles do not support this bet
But it is soft ground unlike many years
He has a low draw and is a big price
And his lifetime best run was 10f on soft

Selection

AQUARIUM 10/1

Each Way

Chester 3.35

9/2 Austrian School, 5/1 Cleonte, 8/1 Low Sun
8/1 Shabeeb, 9/1 Making Miracles, 10/1 Who Dares Wins
12/1 Magic Circle, Whiskey Sour, 14/1 Speedo Boy
16/1 Cliffs Of Dooneen, Fun Mac, Time To Study
20/1 Lucky Deal, 20/1 Montaly, 20/1 Watersmeet
33/1 Mirsaale, 40/1 Busy Street.

Chester Cup

Sent some statistics recently
Just working through them all

MIRSAALE is too old aged 9
Horses aged 8 have struggled
None have won this first time out
FUN MAC has this problem
MONTALY also has this problem

MAGIC CIRCLE is declared
But he could run in the Ormonde
Statistically as a 7yo debutant
His rating and weight is far too high

LOW SUN is a 6yo
Plenty of weight more than most his age
Stall 17 has not been kind

Every race at Chester
Since 2004 over any distance
Horses drawn 16 or more are 0-44
MAKING MIRACLES is drawn 16
No 4yo has won this from a high draw

Since Rainbow High won 17 years ago
No horse has won rated 104 or more
AUSTRALIAN SCHOOL is rated 105
We could turn a blind eye to that stat
But he is only a 4 year old
None his age have won with over 9st
He has more runs than past 4yo winners

WATERSMEET won last time out
Horses aged 5 or more doing this are 0-40
He is 8 now and only 1 his age has won
SPEEDO BOY is not a good age
Not keen on his 92 day absence either
TIME TO STUDY exactly the same problem
BUSY STREET is hard to like drawn 15

Past 4yo winners
Had 7 10 10 13 14 career starts
They were all drawn 11 or lower
LUCKY DEAL has 18 career runs
More than all previous 4yo winners
He is also drawn higher than them all

CLIFFS OF DOONEEN has 5 runs
Thats a little too inexperienced for me
No 4yo has won without at least 7 runs

WHO DARES WINS has history
He was 4th in the 2017 renewal
He was 3rd in the 2018 renewal
Great run last year badly drawn

Always left the impression
He does not truly stay this far
Given he is sired by Jeremy
Who's bred just 1 winner past 2m
Given the conditions this year
I would again raise stamina doubts

SHAHEEB is a 6yo debutant
Plenty of those have taken this
But 357 days off is a very long time
Longest absent winner had 243 days off
All 19 that were off longer were beaten
Ground and absence put me off him

CLEONTE ran 9 days ago
Good run in an Ascot Group race
Main worry is he on the bounce ?
No horse has won this
Running within 10 days (0-15)
One run after a long absence
Leaves him vulnerable to that charge

WHISKEY SOUR is a 6yo
Been hurdling like many past winners
Sired by Jeremy has to prove stamina
But he placed at Ascot in the 2m 4f race
With a good draw he is quite shortlistable

Shortlist

CLEONTE 6/1
WHISKEY SOUR 9/1

CLEONTE looks a potential saver
If I was staking a strong bet in the race
I probably would draft him in as one
Will leave it up to you if you want one

Selection

WHISKEY SOUR 8/1

Each Way

Ascot 3.45

2/1 Royal Residence, 6/1 Equitation 6/1 Diamond Dougal,
10/1 Louie De Palma, 14/1 Dream Catching, Tawny Port
16/1 Vegas Boy, 20/1 Lightning Charlie, 20/1 Youkan,
25/1 Squats, Zain Hana, 40/1 Pettochside.

6f Handicap

Probably as impossible as it looks

HABUB was a negative
Now he has withdrawn

History shows
Younger horses take this
And because no 6 year olds run
The choice is made easier this year
Take the horses aged 4 or 5
Rather than the horses aged 7 or more
Thrown out a lot of sub groups
Such as fillies and horses from 5f
Who have never won this race before

ROYAL RESIDENCE

Now 2/1 favourite after non runners

His profile just did not convince
My angles suggest he is on the bounce

May and June
Class 2 Handicaps
Any distance
Horses Aged 4
1 run this season
Running within 8 days
More than 6 career starts
Show a 0-33 record
ROYAL RESIDENCE fails this 0-33 angle
I think its evidence of the bounce

I ended up with the following shortlist
That was before half the field pulled out

TAWNY POINT - VEGAS BOY
DIAMOND DOUGAL - EQUITATION

Some of these have doubts
Decided to have an educated guess

Small Stakes

Selection

£4.25 Each Way DIAMOND DOUGAL 5/1

£1.00 Win Bet EQUITATION 8/1

Nottingham 7.20

8/11 Twist 'N' Shake, 8/1 Audarya
10/1 Regal Banner, 12/1 Perfect Showdance, Qamka
14/1 Marmarr, 20/1 Narina, 25/1 Venusta,
50/1 Powerful Star, Tamok, 66/1 Levanter, Plissken
100/1 Dolly McQueen, Inspirational, Tereshkova.

8f Fillies Maiden

TWIST AND SHAKE sets the standard
She will probably win the race
But 4/7 looks very short to me

She is not the biggest of 3 year olds
Stall 17 may not be a helpful draw either

Nottingham 8f races
Since 2010
Horses drawn 15 or higher
Had a very modest 2-64 record
Those aged under 4 were 0-44

Go back to 2004
Nottingham 8f races
Horses aged 3
Drawn 15 or higher are 0-35
Just uncomfortable with that draw

Small stake race
Have to guess of course
But I'd rather play it this way

Selection

AUDARJA 7/1

Each Way

FUTURE BETTING ANGLES

Saturday

Ante Post Statistics

Ascot 4pm

Victoria Cup

8/1 Kynren 8/1 Cape Byron 8/1 Ripp Orf
10/1 Glorious Journey 10/1 Blue Mist 12/1 Remarkable
12/1 Presidential 14/1 Kimifive 14/1 George Of Hearts
16/1 Sanaadh 16/1 Raising Sand 16/1 Straight Right
16/1 Lake Volta 20/1 Above The Rest 20/1 Via Serendipity
20/1 Green Power 20/1 Cardsharp 20/1 Qaysar 20/1 Caradoc
25/1 Hajjam 25/1 Gallipoli 25/1 Taurean Star 25/1 Alemaratalyoum
25/1 Zap 25/1 Comin' Through 50/1 Nicholas T 50/1 Kaeso

7f handicap

Horses aged 8 +
Since the race began in 1988
No horse aged 8 or more has won

Horses aged 7
Only managed 1 previous win
That was a lightweight winner in 2012

Stay with horses aged 4-5-6
Male horses won all recent renewals

No past winner
Has won with under 7 runs (0-15)

No past winner
Has won rated 105 or more

Horses racing this season
Beaten over 10 lengths last time
Have a 0-48 record in recent years

Seasonal debutants are 2-73
Those with 8st 11lbs or more are 0-46

Horses running this season
Absent more than 6 weeks
Have a 0-37 record in this race

Horses from 6f races
Have a miserable 1-61 profile
The only winner ran 6 days before

Recent years
Some changes may be happening
The last 4 winners were 4 year olds
They had 8 8 14 8 career starts

Any unexposed 4 year old
With under 15 career starts
Should be seen as a positive

Horses aged 4 that won
Have all been lightly raced
Having 8 8 14 8 7 10 career runs

Horses aged 4
More than 14 career starts
Have a 0-55 record in this race

Horses with 9st 2lbs or more
Have a 2-82 record since 2005
Horses aged 6 or more
Carrying 9st 2lbs or more
Have a 0-38 record in this time

No strong Draw Bias

First 4 horses home
In the last 4 years since 2015
Came from the following stalls

13-11-18-14
18-23-11-16
29-6-2-21
23-25-16-1

Horses drawn 1-10
Have a modest 2-82 record
Horses aged 4 drawn 1-10 are 0-32

No horses have won this race
Coming from a Group race

Horses from listed races
Only won running within 2 weeks

Horses who Pass these angles

GALLIPOLI 40/1
HAJJAM 40/1
KAESO 25/1
STRAIGHT RIGHT 20/1
PRESEDENTIAL 14/1
KYNREN 10/1

Saturday

Play Off Final

2pm Live on BT Sport

Wembley Stadium

4/5 Salford City v Afc Flyde 11/10

Not really bothered who wins
Salford do look the better team
But this is only a one off final

No financial interest is this
But it could lead to one later

If Salford win
They go into the Football League

If they get beaten
Will stay in the National League

If that happens
And I get some acceptable odds
I Might well have another big bet

But I can promise you
I will not put you thought it again
Staying with the Football

Champions League Final

Tottenham v Liverpool

Incredibly both made this
Nobody can call this game
Don't care much who wins

Champions League Finals
I tend to have the same bet
This year with no preference
Betting both to win on penalties

Since 1983

35 Champions League Finals

11 of these 35 Finals
Went to a Penalty Shoot out
Makes it roughly 11/5 to happen
This has to be a bit of value 13/2
And if you support either of them
A way to hedge against heartache

Method of Victory

Final to be won

By either side on Penalties 13/2-7/1

Win Bet

Regions Tradition Golf

£3.50 Each Way Scott Mc Carron 8/1
£1.50 Saver Berhard Lander 8/1
£1.50 Saver Steve Stricker 7/1

Tournament is underway
Racing Post have now covered this
They agree with my outright choice

Racing Post Staking Plan

Scott McCarron 2pts each-way 8-1
Bernhard Langer 1.5pts each-way 8-1
Scott Parel 1pt each-way 20-1
Retief Goosen 1pt each-way 45-1
Colin Montgomerie 0.5pt each-way 30-1

Round 1 has been suspended
Because of some bad weather

Scott McCarron started badly
He is 1 over par after 13 holes

Bernhard Langer -3 after 17
Steve Stricker -3 after 13

Leader is 7 under par (Glen Day)

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Rating

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Ownership

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