Good Sunday Messages Are often borne from bad Fridays
That sounds like Pompous spin But there a certain truth in that
Have a horse in mind for Sunday Thats better than anything today
Going to put this down as a dud We might still have winners later Few I'd deserve to take credit for
But the only bet I found today
Based on any skill or ingenuity
Was a shorter priced Ascot bet
Ascot 2.35
£9 Win Bet Cape Cavalli 11/10
£1 Win Bet Kesia 15/2
Rewards not there for a big bet So making it my best bet today But not a day to invest much in
9 meetings tomorrow Going to be a real slog But should produce better
Thursday's Summary
Yesterdays bet finished only 4th It was one of those annoying bets Where nothing went right for him Both before the race and after it His price collapsed far too quickly Then we had the two non runners Left us with only 2 places available INSPIREUS ended up 5/4 favourite During the race nothing went right Interfered with by this loose horse Same horse bumped him later on He dad excuses and no luck at all But i couldn't say he'd have won Not even sure he'd have placed The bet was a bit of calamity really Both before the race and during it Otherwise we did score punches MORANDO was a beautiful winner Hindsight suggest we understaked Should really have made him a bet Always easier to see once they win Think I've read Chester quite well Lincoln Park and Circus Maximus Both won improving Chester's tally There were losers and some errors Not least the days highlighted bet Generally reading things quite well
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Chester 1.50
4/1 Ptarmigan Ridge, 8/1 Love Dreams, Shady McCoy 10/1 Another Batt, Baraweez, Cold Stare, 12/1 Mazyoun 14/1 Aces, 14/1 Dragons Tail 14/1 Gabrial The Saint, 14/1 Sha La La La Lee, 16/1 Al Erayg 20/1 Brian The Snail,
Class 2 Handicap 7f and 127 yards
Not strong interest in this Not time effective to do this My angles suggest a low draw No high drawn horse has won this A horse younger than 9 years old With a decent and recent run Few horses fitted the angles SHA LA LA LA LEE was one option Overpriced as one of the outsiders But better Sand form than on the grass PTARMIGAN RIDGE came out well If you look at Racing Post ratings He has just recorded a lifetime best
I think one of his advantages Are the flaws in his close market rivals BARAWEEZ is older than all past winners Comes here well beaten only 6 days ago Raising doubts about form and fitness SHADY MCCOY has the same problem COLD STARE is another market danger Also well beaten on his 1 run this season Held by Ptarmigan Ridge on that run Needs to show a lot more than he did there LOVE DREAMS has the widest of draws GABRIAL THE SAINT is rejected from 5f
PTARMIGAN RIDGE looks best SHA LA LA LA LEE looks a saver
Only a few look easy to like IMPERIUM is one of those But he is a drifting unraced horse Trained by Roger Charlton as well You would expect him to need this
KESIA is an unraced filly Her main dangers are colts The Racing Post point out That she looks a second string
John Gosden trains 2 horses SWIFT WING 6/4 and KESIA 8/1
SWIFT WING does look favoured But something bothers me with him
SWIFT WING is sired by Pivotal
Journeyman Sire Who has had 1763 runners so far Hardly a days go by without one running
If I look at unraced horses That were sired by Pivotal Only 1 of them won on debut At distances beyond 11 furlongs
That horse was Topaz Clear He won a 4 runner race in Ireland The ground was heavy that day And the racereaders comments said
"A race run at a farcical pace most of the way"
No other horse from a very busy sire Has won first time out over this far This is a Grade 1 track an uphill finish So I feel we should turn this horse down
CAPE CAVELLI has a run Racing Post Rating of 87 is decent He has an entry in the Dante as well Have to see him as the safer choice KESIA may be worth a saver bet Whilst she might be the stable no 2 She did cost 300 grand to be fair And whoever chose who rides which Will not have known about the Pivotal stat
This is a Mess Plenty of seasonal debutants In a race where many past winners Including the last 2 of those Have won with long absences
The horse I liked best Does not fit the pattern of past winners
AQUARIUM is the fittest horse He is the class horse with topweight He is clearly the fittest horses in the race
My angles would point out No recent returner has won this race No winner has won with his weight either So my angles do not support this bet But it is soft ground unlike many years He has a low draw and is a big price And his lifetime best run was 10f on soft
Selection
AQUARIUM 10/1
Each Way
Chester 3.35
9/2 Austrian School, 5/1 Cleonte, 8/1 Low Sun 8/1 Shabeeb, 9/1 Making Miracles, 10/1 Who Dares Wins 12/1 Magic Circle, Whiskey Sour, 14/1 Speedo Boy 16/1 Cliffs Of Dooneen, Fun Mac, Time To Study 20/1 Lucky Deal, 20/1 Montaly, 20/1 Watersmeet 33/1 Mirsaale, 40/1 Busy Street.
Chester Cup
Sent some statistics recently Just working through them all
MIRSAALE is too old aged 9 Horses aged 8 have struggled None have won this first time out FUN MAC has this problem MONTALY also has this problem
MAGIC CIRCLE is declared But he could run in the Ormonde Statistically as a 7yo debutant His rating and weight is far too high
LOW SUN is a 6yo Plenty of weight more than most his age Stall 17 has not been kind
Every race at Chester Since 2004 over any distance Horses drawn 16 or more are 0-44 MAKING MIRACLES is drawn 16 No 4yo has won this from a high draw
Since Rainbow High won 17 years ago No horse has won rated 104 or more AUSTRALIAN SCHOOL is rated 105 We could turn a blind eye to that stat But he is only a 4 year old None his age have won with over 9st He has more runs than past 4yo winners
WATERSMEET won last time out Horses aged 5 or more doing this are 0-40 He is 8 now and only 1 his age has won SPEEDO BOY is not a good age Not keen on his 92 day absence either TIME TO STUDY exactly the same problem BUSY STREET is hard to like drawn 15
Past 4yo winners Had 7 10 10 13 14 career starts They were all drawn 11 or lower LUCKY DEAL has 18 career runs More than all previous 4yo winners He is also drawn higher than them all
CLIFFS OF DOONEEN has 5 runs Thats a little too inexperienced for me No 4yo has won without at least 7 runs
WHO DARES WINS has history He was 4th in the 2017 renewal He was 3rd in the 2018 renewal Great run last year badly drawn
Always left the impression He does not truly stay this far Given he is sired by Jeremy Who's bred just 1 winner past 2m Given the conditions this year I would again raise stamina doubts
SHAHEEB is a 6yo debutant Plenty of those have taken this But 357 days off is a very long time Longest absent winner had 243 days off All 19 that were off longer were beaten Ground and absence put me off him
CLEONTE ran 9 days ago Good run in an Ascot Group race Main worry is he on the bounce ? No horse has won this Running within 10 days (0-15) One run after a long absence Leaves him vulnerable to that charge
WHISKEY SOUR is a 6yo Been hurdling like many past winners Sired by Jeremy has to prove stamina But he placed at Ascot in the 2m 4f race With a good draw he is quite shortlistable
Shortlist
CLEONTE 6/1 WHISKEY SOUR 9/1
CLEONTE looks a potential saver If I was staking a strong bet in the race I probably would draft him in as one Will leave it up to you if you want one
History shows Younger horses take this And because no 6 year olds run The choice is made easier this year Take the horses aged 4 or 5 Rather than the horses aged 7 or more Thrown out a lot of sub groups Such as fillies and horses from 5f Who have never won this race before
ROYAL RESIDENCE
Now 2/1 favourite after non runners
His profile just did not convince My angles suggest he is on the bounce
May and June Class 2 Handicaps Any distance Horses Aged 4 1 run this season Running within 8 days More than 6 career starts Show a 0-33 record ROYAL RESIDENCE fails this 0-33 angle I think its evidence of the bounce
I ended up with the following shortlist That was before half the field pulled out
TAWNY POINT - VEGAS BOY DIAMOND DOUGAL - EQUITATION
Some of these have doubts Decided to have an educated guess
TWIST AND SHAKE sets the standard She will probably win the race But 4/7 looks very short to me
She is not the biggest of 3 year olds Stall 17 may not be a helpful draw either
Nottingham 8f races Since 2010 Horses drawn 15 or higher Had a very modest 2-64 record Those aged under 4 were 0-44
Go back to 2004 Nottingham 8f races Horses aged 3 Drawn 15 or higher are 0-35 Just uncomfortable with that draw
Small stake race Have to guess of course But I'd rather play it this way
Selection
AUDARJA 7/1
Each Way
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Saturday
Ante Post Statistics
Ascot 4pm
Victoria Cup
8/1 Kynren 8/1 Cape Byron 8/1 Ripp Orf 10/1 Glorious Journey 10/1 Blue Mist 12/1 Remarkable 12/1 Presidential 14/1 Kimifive 14/1 George Of Hearts 16/1 Sanaadh 16/1 Raising Sand 16/1 Straight Right 16/1 Lake Volta 20/1 Above The Rest 20/1 Via Serendipity 20/1 Green Power 20/1 Cardsharp 20/1 Qaysar 20/1 Caradoc 25/1 Hajjam 25/1 Gallipoli 25/1 Taurean Star 25/1 Alemaratalyoum 25/1 Zap 25/1 Comin' Through 50/1 Nicholas T 50/1 Kaeso
7f handicap
Horses aged 8 + Since the race began in 1988 No horse aged 8 or more has won
Horses aged 7 Only managed 1 previous win That was a lightweight winner in 2012
Stay with horses aged 4-5-6 Male horses won all recent renewals
No past winner Has won with under 7 runs (0-15)
No past winner Has won rated 105 or more
Horses racing this season Beaten over 10 lengths last time Have a 0-48 record in recent years
Seasonal debutants are 2-73 Those with 8st 11lbs or more are 0-46
Horses running this season Absent more than 6 weeks Have a 0-37 record in this race
Horses from 6f races Have a miserable 1-61 profile The only winner ran 6 days before
Recent years Some changes may be happening The last 4 winners were 4 year olds They had 8 8 14 8 career starts
Any unexposed 4 year old With under 15 career starts Should be seen as a positive
Horses aged 4 that won Have all been lightly raced Having 8 8 14 8 7 10 career runs
Horses aged 4 More than 14 career starts Have a 0-55 record in this race
Horses with 9st 2lbs or more Have a 2-82 record since 2005 Horses aged 6 or more Carrying 9st 2lbs or more Have a 0-38 record in this time
No strong Draw Bias
First 4 horses home In the last 4 years since 2015 Came from the following stalls
13-11-18-14 18-23-11-16 29-6-2-21 23-25-16-1
Horses drawn 1-10 Have a modest 2-82 record Horses aged 4 drawn 1-10 are 0-32
No horses have won this race Coming from a Group race
Horses from listed races Only won running within 2 weeks
Not really bothered who wins Salford do look the better team But this is only a one off final
No financial interest is this But it could lead to one later
If Salford win They go into the Football League
If they get beaten Will stay in the National League
If that happens And I get some acceptable odds I Might well have another big bet
But I can promise you I will not put you thought it again Staying with the Football
Champions League Final
Tottenham v Liverpool
Incredibly both made this Nobody can call this game Don't care much who wins
Champions League Finals I tend to have the same bet This year with no preference Betting both to win on penalties
Since 1983
35 Champions League Finals
11 of these 35 Finals Went to a Penalty Shoot out Makes it roughly 11/5 to happen This has to be a bit of value 13/2 And if you support either of them A way to hedge against heartache
Method of Victory
Final to be won
By either side on Penalties 13/2-7/1
Win Bet
Regions Tradition Golf
£3.50 Each Way Scott Mc Carron 8/1 £1.50 Saver Berhard Lander 8/1 £1.50 Saver Steve Stricker 7/1
Tournament is underway Racing Post have now covered this They agree with my outright choice
Racing Post Staking Plan
Scott McCarron 2pts each-way 8-1 Bernhard Langer 1.5pts each-way 8-1 Scott Parel 1pt each-way 20-1 Retief Goosen 1pt each-way 45-1 Colin Montgomerie 0.5pt each-way 30-1
Round 1 has been suspended Because of some bad weather
Scott McCarron started badly He is 1 over par after 13 holes
Bernhard Langer -3 after 17 Steve Stricker -3 after 13
Comments on Mathematician 3217
Senior Member
Usergroup: Moderators
Joined: Nov 05, 2003
Total Topics: 6449
Total Comments: 15225
Posted May 10, 2019 - 02:40 AM:
Mathematician 3217
Friday May 10th
6 Races Discussed
0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet
No Bet Today
Betting The Message
Quite a tame and lame message
Well below the normal standard
My view not a strong message
Became obvious very early on
We should aim for lower stakes
Focus more on Saturday-Sunday
6 Previews
Chester 1.50
Ascot 2.35
Chester 3.00
Chester 3.35
Ascot 3.45
Nottingham 7.20
Good Sunday Messages
Are often borne from bad Fridays
That sounds like Pompous spin
But there a certain truth in that
Have a horse in mind for Sunday
Thats better than anything today
Going to put this down as a dud
We might still have winners later
Few I'd deserve to take credit for
But the only bet I found today
Based on any skill or ingenuity
Was a shorter priced Ascot bet
Ascot 2.35
£9 Win Bet Cape Cavalli 11/10
£1 Win Bet Kesia 15/2
Rewards not there for a big bet
So making it my best bet today
But not a day to invest much in
9 meetings tomorrow
Going to be a real slog
But should produce better
Thursday's Summary
Yesterdays bet finished only 4th
It was one of those annoying bets
Where nothing went right for him
Both before the race and after it
His price collapsed far too quickly
Then we had the two non runners
Left us with only 2 places available
INSPIREUS ended up 5/4 favourite
During the race nothing went right
Interfered with by this loose horse
Same horse bumped him later on
He dad excuses and no luck at all
But i couldn't say he'd have won
Not even sure he'd have placed
The bet was a bit of calamity really
Both before the race and during it
Otherwise we did score punches
MORANDO was a beautiful winner
Hindsight suggest we understaked
Should really have made him a bet
Always easier to see once they win
Think I've read Chester quite well
Lincoln Park and Circus Maximus
Both won improving Chester's tally
There were losers and some errors
Not least the days highlighted bet
Generally reading things quite well
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Chester 1.50
4/1 Ptarmigan Ridge, 8/1 Love Dreams, Shady McCoy
10/1 Another Batt, Baraweez, Cold Stare, 12/1 Mazyoun
14/1 Aces, 14/1 Dragons Tail 14/1 Gabrial The Saint,
14/1 Sha La La La Lee, 16/1 Al Erayg 20/1 Brian The Snail,
Class 2 Handicap
7f and 127 yards
Not strong interest in this
Not time effective to do this
My angles suggest a low draw
No high drawn horse has won this
A horse younger than 9 years old
With a decent and recent run
Few horses fitted the angles
SHA LA LA LA LEE was one option
Overpriced as one of the outsiders
But better Sand form than on the grass
PTARMIGAN RIDGE came out well
If you look at Racing Post ratings
He has just recorded a lifetime best
I think one of his advantages
Are the flaws in his close market rivals
BARAWEEZ is older than all past winners
Comes here well beaten only 6 days ago
Raising doubts about form and fitness
SHADY MCCOY has the same problem
COLD STARE is another market danger
Also well beaten on his 1 run this season
Held by Ptarmigan Ridge on that run
Needs to show a lot more than he did there
LOVE DREAMS has the widest of draws
GABRIAL THE SAINT is rejected from 5f
PTARMIGAN RIDGE looks best
SHA LA LA LA LEE looks a saver
Selection
£9 Win Bet PTARMIGAN RIDGE 11/4
£1 Win Bet SHA LA LA LA LEE 14/1
Ascot 2.35
10/11 Cape Cavalli, 15/8 Swift Wing, 8/1 Kesia,
12/1 Imperium, 25/1 Manucci, 100/1 Aleatoric
100/1 Cherry Cola.
12f Maiden race
Only a few look easy to like
IMPERIUM is one of those
But he is a drifting unraced horse
Trained by Roger Charlton as well
You would expect him to need this
KESIA is an unraced filly
Her main dangers are colts
The Racing Post point out
That she looks a second string
John Gosden trains 2 horses
SWIFT WING 6/4 and KESIA 8/1
SWIFT WING does look favoured
But something bothers me with him
SWIFT WING is sired by Pivotal
Journeyman Sire
Who has had 1763 runners so far
Hardly a days go by without one running
If I look at unraced horses
That were sired by Pivotal
Only 1 of them won on debut
At distances beyond 11 furlongs
That horse was Topaz Clear
He won a 4 runner race in Ireland
The ground was heavy that day
And the racereaders comments said
"A race run at a farcical pace most of the way"
No other horse from a very busy sire
Has won first time out over this far
This is a Grade 1 track an uphill finish
So I feel we should turn this horse down
CAPE CAVELLI has a run
Racing Post Rating of 87 is decent
He has an entry in the Dante as well
Have to see him as the safer choice
KESIA may be worth a saver bet
Whilst she might be the stable no 2
She did cost 300 grand to be fair
And whoever chose who rides which
Will not have known about the Pivotal stat
Selection
£9 Win Bet CAPE CAVELLI 11/10
£1 Win Bet KESIA 7/1- 8/1
Chester 3.00
9/2 Epaulement, 11/2 Frankuus, 6/1 Restorer
7/1 Aasheq, 8/1 Dukhan, Sputnik Planum, 10/1 Aquarium
10/1 Finniston Farm, 12/1 Genetics, 20/1 Banksea
25/1 Gossip Column.
10f Handicap
This is a Mess
Plenty of seasonal debutants
In a race where many past winners
Including the last 2 of those
Have won with long absences
The horse I liked best
Does not fit the pattern of past winners
AQUARIUM is the fittest horse
He is the class horse with topweight
He is clearly the fittest horses in the race
My angles would point out
No recent returner has won this race
No winner has won with his weight either
So my angles do not support this bet
But it is soft ground unlike many years
He has a low draw and is a big price
And his lifetime best run was 10f on soft
Selection
AQUARIUM 10/1
Each Way
Chester 3.35
9/2 Austrian School, 5/1 Cleonte, 8/1 Low Sun
8/1 Shabeeb, 9/1 Making Miracles, 10/1 Who Dares Wins
12/1 Magic Circle, Whiskey Sour, 14/1 Speedo Boy
16/1 Cliffs Of Dooneen, Fun Mac, Time To Study
20/1 Lucky Deal, 20/1 Montaly, 20/1 Watersmeet
33/1 Mirsaale, 40/1 Busy Street.
Chester Cup
Sent some statistics recently
Just working through them all
MIRSAALE is too old aged 9
Horses aged 8 have struggled
None have won this first time out
FUN MAC has this problem
MONTALY also has this problem
MAGIC CIRCLE is declared
But he could run in the Ormonde
Statistically as a 7yo debutant
His rating and weight is far too high
LOW SUN is a 6yo
Plenty of weight more than most his age
Stall 17 has not been kind
Every race at Chester
Since 2004 over any distance
Horses drawn 16 or more are 0-44
MAKING MIRACLES is drawn 16
No 4yo has won this from a high draw
Since Rainbow High won 17 years ago
No horse has won rated 104 or more
AUSTRALIAN SCHOOL is rated 105
We could turn a blind eye to that stat
But he is only a 4 year old
None his age have won with over 9st
He has more runs than past 4yo winners
WATERSMEET won last time out
Horses aged 5 or more doing this are 0-40
He is 8 now and only 1 his age has won
SPEEDO BOY is not a good age
Not keen on his 92 day absence either
TIME TO STUDY exactly the same problem
BUSY STREET is hard to like drawn 15
Past 4yo winners
Had 7 10 10 13 14 career starts
They were all drawn 11 or lower
LUCKY DEAL has 18 career runs
More than all previous 4yo winners
He is also drawn higher than them all
CLIFFS OF DOONEEN has 5 runs
Thats a little too inexperienced for me
No 4yo has won without at least 7 runs
WHO DARES WINS has history
He was 4th in the 2017 renewal
He was 3rd in the 2018 renewal
Great run last year badly drawn
Always left the impression
He does not truly stay this far
Given he is sired by Jeremy
Who's bred just 1 winner past 2m
Given the conditions this year
I would again raise stamina doubts
SHAHEEB is a 6yo debutant
Plenty of those have taken this
But 357 days off is a very long time
Longest absent winner had 243 days off
All 19 that were off longer were beaten
Ground and absence put me off him
CLEONTE ran 9 days ago
Good run in an Ascot Group race
Main worry is he on the bounce ?
No horse has won this
Running within 10 days (0-15)
One run after a long absence
Leaves him vulnerable to that charge
WHISKEY SOUR is a 6yo
Been hurdling like many past winners
Sired by Jeremy has to prove stamina
But he placed at Ascot in the 2m 4f race
With a good draw he is quite shortlistable
Shortlist
CLEONTE 6/1
WHISKEY SOUR 9/1
CLEONTE looks a potential saver
If I was staking a strong bet in the race
I probably would draft him in as one
Will leave it up to you if you want one
Selection
WHISKEY SOUR 8/1
Each Way
Ascot 3.45
2/1 Royal Residence, 6/1 Equitation 6/1 Diamond Dougal,
10/1 Louie De Palma, 14/1 Dream Catching, Tawny Port
16/1 Vegas Boy, 20/1 Lightning Charlie, 20/1 Youkan,
25/1 Squats, Zain Hana, 40/1 Pettochside.
6f Handicap
Probably as impossible as it looks
HABUB was a negative
Now he has withdrawn
History shows
Younger horses take this
And because no 6 year olds run
The choice is made easier this year
Take the horses aged 4 or 5
Rather than the horses aged 7 or more
Thrown out a lot of sub groups
Such as fillies and horses from 5f
Who have never won this race before
ROYAL RESIDENCE
Now 2/1 favourite after non runners
His profile just did not convince
My angles suggest he is on the bounce
May and June
Class 2 Handicaps
Any distance
Horses Aged 4
1 run this season
Running within 8 days
More than 6 career starts
Show a 0-33 record
ROYAL RESIDENCE fails this 0-33 angle
I think its evidence of the bounce
I ended up with the following shortlist
That was before half the field pulled out
TAWNY POINT - VEGAS BOY
DIAMOND DOUGAL - EQUITATION
Some of these have doubts
Decided to have an educated guess
Small Stakes
Selection
£4.25 Each Way DIAMOND DOUGAL 5/1
£1.00 Win Bet EQUITATION 8/1
Nottingham 7.20
8/11 Twist 'N' Shake, 8/1 Audarya
10/1 Regal Banner, 12/1 Perfect Showdance, Qamka
14/1 Marmarr, 20/1 Narina, 25/1 Venusta,
50/1 Powerful Star, Tamok, 66/1 Levanter, Plissken
100/1 Dolly McQueen, Inspirational, Tereshkova.
8f Fillies Maiden
TWIST AND SHAKE sets the standard
She will probably win the race
But 4/7 looks very short to me
She is not the biggest of 3 year olds
Stall 17 may not be a helpful draw either
Nottingham 8f races
Since 2010
Horses drawn 15 or higher
Had a very modest 2-64 record
Those aged under 4 were 0-44
Go back to 2004
Nottingham 8f races
Horses aged 3
Drawn 15 or higher are 0-35
Just uncomfortable with that draw
Small stake race
Have to guess of course
But I'd rather play it this way
Selection
AUDARJA 7/1
Each Way
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Saturday
Ante Post Statistics
Ascot 4pm
Victoria Cup
8/1 Kynren 8/1 Cape Byron 8/1 Ripp Orf
10/1 Glorious Journey 10/1 Blue Mist 12/1 Remarkable
12/1 Presidential 14/1 Kimifive 14/1 George Of Hearts
16/1 Sanaadh 16/1 Raising Sand 16/1 Straight Right
16/1 Lake Volta 20/1 Above The Rest 20/1 Via Serendipity
20/1 Green Power 20/1 Cardsharp 20/1 Qaysar 20/1 Caradoc
25/1 Hajjam 25/1 Gallipoli 25/1 Taurean Star 25/1 Alemaratalyoum
25/1 Zap 25/1 Comin' Through 50/1 Nicholas T 50/1 Kaeso
7f handicap
Horses aged 8 +
Since the race began in 1988
No horse aged 8 or more has won
Horses aged 7
Only managed 1 previous win
That was a lightweight winner in 2012
Stay with horses aged 4-5-6
Male horses won all recent renewals
No past winner
Has won with under 7 runs (0-15)
No past winner
Has won rated 105 or more
Horses racing this season
Beaten over 10 lengths last time
Have a 0-48 record in recent years
Seasonal debutants are 2-73
Those with 8st 11lbs or more are 0-46
Horses running this season
Absent more than 6 weeks
Have a 0-37 record in this race
Horses from 6f races
Have a miserable 1-61 profile
The only winner ran 6 days before
Recent years
Some changes may be happening
The last 4 winners were 4 year olds
They had 8 8 14 8 career starts
Any unexposed 4 year old
With under 15 career starts
Should be seen as a positive
Horses aged 4 that won
Have all been lightly raced
Having 8 8 14 8 7 10 career runs
Horses aged 4
More than 14 career starts
Have a 0-55 record in this race
Horses with 9st 2lbs or more
Have a 2-82 record since 2005
Horses aged 6 or more
Carrying 9st 2lbs or more
Have a 0-38 record in this time
No strong Draw Bias
First 4 horses home
In the last 4 years since 2015
Came from the following stalls
13-11-18-14
18-23-11-16
29-6-2-21
23-25-16-1
Horses drawn 1-10
Have a modest 2-82 record
Horses aged 4 drawn 1-10 are 0-32
No horses have won this race
Coming from a Group race
Horses from listed races
Only won running within 2 weeks
Horses who Pass these angles
GALLIPOLI 40/1
HAJJAM 40/1
KAESO 25/1
STRAIGHT RIGHT 20/1
PRESEDENTIAL 14/1
KYNREN 10/1
Saturday
Play Off Final
2pm Live on BT Sport
Wembley Stadium
4/5 Salford City v Afc Flyde 11/10
Not really bothered who wins
Salford do look the better team
But this is only a one off final
No financial interest is this
But it could lead to one later
If Salford win
They go into the Football League
If they get beaten
Will stay in the National League
If that happens
And I get some acceptable odds
I Might well have another big bet
But I can promise you
I will not put you thought it again
Staying with the Football
Champions League Final
Tottenham v Liverpool
Incredibly both made this
Nobody can call this game
Don't care much who wins
Champions League Finals
I tend to have the same bet
This year with no preference
Betting both to win on penalties
Since 1983
35 Champions League Finals
11 of these 35 Finals
Went to a Penalty Shoot out
Makes it roughly 11/5 to happen
This has to be a bit of value 13/2
And if you support either of them
A way to hedge against heartache
Method of Victory
Final to be won
By either side on Penalties 13/2-7/1
Win Bet
Regions Tradition Golf
£3.50 Each Way Scott Mc Carron 8/1
£1.50 Saver Berhard Lander 8/1
£1.50 Saver Steve Stricker 7/1
Tournament is underway
Racing Post have now covered this
They agree with my outright choice
Racing Post Staking Plan
Scott McCarron 2pts each-way 8-1
Bernhard Langer 1.5pts each-way 8-1
Scott Parel 1pt each-way 20-1
Retief Goosen 1pt each-way 45-1
Colin Montgomerie 0.5pt each-way 30-1
Round 1 has been suspended
Because of some bad weather
Scott McCarron started badly
He is 1 over par after 13 holes
Bernhard Langer -3 after 17
Steve Stricker -3 after 13
Leader is 7 under par (Glen Day)
***************************************************
***************************************************