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Posted Jan 15, 2020 - 04:01 AM:

Mathematician 3431

Wednesday January 15th

7 Previews
0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet

No Staked Bet

Had 2 options today
One unsuitable to stake
Because of a weak market

The other I found quite late
Would have to rush it through
Without the proper scrutiny
Decided not to take the risk

Today's Message

Plumpton failed a inspection
Newbury declared fit to race

Punchestown 12.30
Wolverhampton 12.55
Punchestown 1.00
Punchestown 2.00
Newbury 2.50
Southwell 4.20
Southwell 5.20

The 2 inspections today
Made it hard to time things

I left Newbury until the end
My best bet could race there
But to be perfectly truthful
I wanted another hour there
To run further tests on a race

Newbury 2.50

NEBUCHADNEZZAR 11/2

Each Way

Feel this could be my best bet
But have had to rush this race

The other problem is
Few of the other bets I like
Not really suitable to stake
Mainly due to weak markets

Punchestown 12.30

POLITICISE 4/1

Each Way

Good example of this
This is an Irish Maiden Hurdle
With few fancied in the race
The price might not hold up

These are the only bets
I would consider stake-able

Feel a bit rushed
With the highlighted bet today
Mainly down to two inspections

NEBUCHADNEZZAR is a 5yo
Has to give weight to older horses
A few of which I have not had time
To look at in enough detail

Because of this
Because it is heavy ground there
Decided the bet was too risky

No Staked Bet

NEBUCHADNEZZAR should win soon
But he is the least likely of 2 options

Going with the other horse
As my best bet in the message
Despite this being a weak market

Today's Best Bet

Punchestown 12.30

POLITICISE 4/1

Each Way

Tuesday's Summary

Unusual to have just 1 preview
But at least the horse did win it
He ended up winning this at 3/1
Bigger was available earlier on
But there was a rule 4 to adjust
Weak market a habitual problem
Surprised I didn't find more bets
But 2nd message after a day off
I was most likely on the bounce

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Punchestown 12.30

13/8 Oak Park, 5/2 Instant Return
9/2 Politicise 13/2 Three Comets, 10/1 Yafordadoe
12/1 Garrison Commander, 16/1 Line Break, 20/1 Insane Bolt
25/1 Brawny, Oliver Hardy, 33/1 Munaazil, Whatever Youlike
66/1 Pretty Fantasy.

4yo Hurdle

OAK PARK has raced once
Gordon Elliot was sent the horse
French recruit costing 22k

What bothers me about him
He was only a 25/1 chance that day
Unfancied from a top class stable
He ran well enough but on figures
He comes out as the 3rd best horse
Most of his main rivals here
Have at least 1 extra hurdle run
Could win but too short to risk
THREE COMETS ran in that race
Unseated at 20/1 he has a chance
YAFORDADOE has a weak NH Sire

Staying with the 2 horses
Who offer the best numbers
Have the most experience

INSTANT RETURN
POLITICISE

INSTANT RETURN 2nd last time
He ran ok last time on heavy
That was at a much easier track
What bothers me about him
His sire's record with hurdlers
They are 0-24 on softer than good

POLITICISE may be the right bet
I watched his race last time out
The fancied horses set the pace
Outsiders came through to win
I think they went off too quickly
Rate him a bit better than he showed
Which would be good enough to place

Selection

POLITICISE 4/1

Each Way

Wolverhampton 12.55

4/1 Dark Phoenix, 9/2 Adamaris, Nikolayeva, 6/1 Mabre
7/1 Arabescato, 8/1 Good Try, 9/1 Dame Rapide
10/1 Never Said Nothing, 16/1 Eloquent Poet,
16/1 Halfacrown, 33/1 Calamity May, 40/1 Dame Denali.

3yo Handicap (8f)

Some of the bottomweights
Look short of the class needed
Scoring some miserable numbers
The following all look outclassed
HALFACROWN and DAME DENALI
CALAMITY MAY looks unfit

MABRE comes from a 6f race
Not for me going up so far in distance
GOOD TRY is a filly with only 3 runs
Throw in an absence she is too risky

NIKOLAYEVA has been backed
But don't like the narrative here
Mark Prescott ran her in a claimer
Was prepared to lose her for £5k
Thats hardly a ringing endorsement
Having had just 4 previous races
New connections are very talented
But they's only had him a month now
NEVER SAY NOTHING flopped last time
Just looks too risky and not for me

ADAMARIS has to be respected
Don't doubt he has the ability
But he has the longest absence
He has the highest draw as well
Wolves 8f races since Jan 2019
Show stall 13 has a 0-30 record

DARK PHOENIX won last time
No surprise if he follows up here
Different track an extra furlong
Not a trainer I like to rely upon
ARABESCATO has a chance
Grey horse with high head carriage
Drawn 1 and from a sire in Outstrip
Who hasn't yet had a winner past 8f

DAME RAPIDE
ELOQUENT POET

Both ran just 2 days ago
Both from the same stable
Both have the shortest absences
Both will appreciate this extra trip
Should finish quite close together

Selection

Small Stakes

£2.50 Each Way DAME RAPIDE 14/1

£2.50 Each Way ELOQUENT POET 22/1

Punchestown 1.00

3/1 Magic Sea, 11/2 Nobel Joshua, 13/2 Saol Iontach
8/1 Chief Of Police, Fair Minded, 10/1 Breezy Bell
12/1 Ontheiflist, Shes Gold, 12/1 Sean Says
16/1 De Benno, Early Voice, 25/1 Benefit North
33/1 Backintheboom, Bold Emperor, Ice Cool.

2m Handicap Hurdle

One or two points of interest
DE BENNO is 15 years old for starters
Happy to ignore that age over this trip

The one statistic that interests me
How do 4 year olds cope at this track

Punchestown since 2009
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year

Horses aged 4
Have a modest 8-173 record
Those absent more than 28 days
Have a 0-70 record in them

No 4yo has ever won here
Since 2009 with over 4 weeks off
In any open handicap hurdle

NOBLE JOSHUA fails this angle
SEAN SAYS also fails this statistic
EARLY VOICE is also a 4 year old
If you look at all the 4yo winners here
Those with under 4 hurdle runs are 0-45
EARLY VOICE shares this problem
NOBLE JOSHUA and SEAN SAYS do too

BACKINTHEBOOM is absent too long
ICE COOL has an unfit profile
BOLD EMPEROR is running badly
BENEFIT NORTH not running well

SAOL LONTACH is a mare
Coming from a maiden hurdle
Well beaten in that not for me
But has been well backed here

BREEZY BELLE has the same problem
No mare has won a handicap here
Under 2m 4f coming from a maiden hurdle
FAIR MINDED is a lightly raced mare
Has not done enough to trust yet
SHE'S GOLD is a mare
Ran ok last time but not well enough
She was 40/1 to win a weaker race

Positives

ON THE LIST has an absence
Hard to read not ruled out though

MAGIC SEA won last time out
Overall positive but tough weight

CHIEF OR POLICE would be risky
Unseating in a maiden hurdle last time
But was going nicely when he fell
Has good enough numbers before that

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet CHIEF OR POLICE 7/1-8/1

£2.00 Win Bet MAGIC SEA 7/2

Punchestown 2.00

5/4 Et Dite, 13/8 Domitian, 6/1 Darrens Hope
7/1 Fort Worth Texas, 14/1 Commander Lady
50/1 Aurora Sunrise, 66/1 Miss Sophiea,
66/1 Regina Dracones, 66/1 Samsara Lady
100/1 Getaway Gold.

Mares Maiden Hurdle (2m 4f)

10 runners
4 look worth considering

5/4 Et Dite
13/8 Domitian
6/1 Darrens Hope
7/1 Fort Worth Texas

DOMITIAN is a 5 year old
The other 3 horses are 6 year olds

Age statistics how
Horses aged 5 can win
But they have a poor record

January
Mares Maiden Hurdles
Any Distance

Horses aged 5 are 9-273
Horses aged 6 are 32-307
Horses aged 7 are 16-193

Horses older than 5
Have a significantly better record

If you look at all these races

Horses aged 5
Coming from a hurdle race
Absent more than 28 days
Have a 0-64 record in them
DOMITIAN fails this 0-64 angle
Going to oppose him here
Based on the above angles

DARRENS HOPE is a positive
Despite no previous hurdle form
But comes from a smaller stable
FORT WORTH TEXAS has a chance
The above pair's best hope
May come from the favourite flopping
ET DITE has achieved more so far

Stop Press

DOMITIAN rather annoyingly
Has pulled out 15 minutes ago

Selection

ET DITE 10/11

Win Bet

Newbury 2.50

3/1 Eddiemaurice, 4/1 Royal Ruby, 9/2 Glockenspiel
5/1 Nebuchadnezzar, 8/1 Ferrobin, 10/1 Josie Abbing
10/1 Kenny George, 12/1 Mon Palois, 20/1 The Granson
33/1 Jacke Is Back.

2m Handicap Hurdle

On a Grade 1 track like this
Not many older horses win
When quite exposed over hurdles

Newbury Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 4f or shorter
Any class of race
Any time of year

Horses aged 8 or more
Over 10 previous hurdle runs
Absent longer than 6 days
Have a 0-82 record in them

The following horses fail this

EDDIEMAURICE
ROYAL RUBY
THE GRANSON

FERROBIN flopped last time
JACKE IS BLACK pulled up last time
Neither looked safe enough to risk

GLOCKENSPIEL is hard to read
Having 2 hurdle runs and French form

NEBUCHADNEZZAR appeals most
Topweight but strong powerful type
Looks more than capable of a win
Has not managed one over hurdles yet
But this his 7th run and 2nd handicap
Looks the weakest handicap he's had
Topweight against lower rated horses

Selection

NEBUCHADNEZZAR 5/1

Each Way

Southwell 4.20

7/2 Crazy Spin, 4/1 Emojie, Sea Of Cool, 13/2 Atalanta Queen
8/1 Caesonia, Daniel Dravot, Kashid, 16/1 Amber Rock
20/1 Another Approach, 33/1 Baile Ghilibert, 100/1 Monzino.

8f Handicap

SEA OF COOL is a 3yo
Taking on older horses

All age handicaps in January
In a similar class to this race
Show 3 year olds doing this
Have a modest 2-59 record

Those male him him are 0-21
Those with over 5 runs are 0-17
SEA OF COOL has a recent run
But up in distance not safe enough
AMBER ROCK's numbers are low
DANIEL DRAVOT won last time out
But unfancied in a very weak race
Previous form doesn't support him
KASHID has raced once in 126 days

ATLANTA QUEEN is a mare up in trip

CAESONIA has a chance
Filly drawn 1 needs to improve

CRAZY SPIN won last time
EMOJIE was 2nd behind him
Both respected and not ruled out
Have to take a guess from here

Selection

EMOJIE 7/2

Each Way

Southwell 5.20

15/8 Prince Caspian, 11/4 Global Esteem
9/2 Lion Tower, 13/2 Sur Mer, 8/1 Been Bobbied
14/1 Lady Latte, 20/1 Mr Terry, 100/1 Lady Dandy.

6f Novice (3yo)

LION TOWER has been supported
Not overkeen on his profile though
He has raced once
That was only 9 days ago
He was beaten 11.5 lengths there

3yo Novices
Run over 9f and shorter
Any time of year
Both turf and Sand

Horses with 1 run
Running within 12 days
Beaten 7 or more lengths on debut
Have a 0-72 record in them
Thats at any time of year
Since these races were introduced in 2018

PRINCE CASPIAN has 2 runs
GLOBAL ESTEEM has 2 runs

Both have shown enough to win
On their first ever runs
Both regressed second time out
Very difficult to split them

PRINCE CASPIAN a better stable
GLOBAL ESTEEM a better price
The better stable swung the vote

Selection

PRINCE CASPIAN 13/8

Win Bet

FUTURE BETTING ANGLES

Australia Open Tennis

No decision yet about conditions
Djokovic suggests they postpone
But the money is still their priority

Big as both those influences are
It may come down to neither really
May be down to ballboys and girls
They just may not risk the visual
Kids unmasked running in smog
Would not be an image they risk

1) Peter Marsh Chase

2) Beautiful Bet 3 shutdown

3) Cheltenham's 4m chase

Saturday

Haydock 2.40

Peter Marsh Chase

6/1 Acting Lass 6/1 Prime Venture 7/1 Definitly Red
7/1 Geronimo 8/1 Champers On Ice 10/1 Vintage Clouds
10/1 Get On The Yager 10/1 Claud And Goldie
10/1 Midnight Tune 10/1 Daklondike 10/1 Flying Angel
10/1 Calipso Collonges 10/1 Prince Of Scars 12/1 Regal Flow
16/1 Virginia Chick 16/1 Red Indian

Grade 2 Handicap (3m 1f)

Number of Chase runs

34 Regal Flow
22 Definitly Red
22 Flying Angel
21 Vintage Clouds
12 Daklondike
11 Get On The Yager
9 Calipso Collonges
9 Prime Venture
8 Acting Lass
7 Claud And Goldie
6 Geronimo
6 Prince Of Scars
5 Midnight Tune
4 Champers On Ice
4 Red Indian
4 Virginia Chick

Obviously running plans are unclear

Highly unusual in this race
To see so many lightly raced horses

Several with under 7 chase races
Not sure that is ideal in this handicap
Given heavy ground and past renewals

Statistical problems
With the following horses

RED INDIAN has 287 days absence
The longest absent winner was 56 days

PRINCE OF SCARS is unsafe
Horses from 3m 3f or shorter
Have a 0-34 record in this race
He only has 1 run this season

Past winners runs this season
3 2 4 2 3 3 4 3 4 5 3 2 2 2
Been years since a horse won this
Having raced just once this season

GERONIMO has raced just once
He comes from a 2m 4f race as well
CLAUDE AND GOLDIE has just 1 run
GET ON THE YAGER has this problem

PRIME VENTURE does not look safe
Horses coming from 3m 3f or shorter
Have a 0-34 record in this handicap
He comes from the Welsh National
Which is far from a safe trial race
VIRGINIA CHICK has the same issue

MIDNIGHT TUNE is a mare
She is stepping up from a 2m 1f race
REGAL FLOW is 13 years old now
He'd be the oldest ever winner of this
In a race that was first run in 1981

DEFINITLY RED is topweight
The class horse but has 11st 10lbs
Jodami won in 1997 with topweight
Since then high weights struggled
Only 1 winner had 11st 8lbs or more

Possibles

DALKONLIKE an 8yo with 10st 10lbs
Unseated when 4/1 in last years race
Thats quite a big weight for an 8yo
Horses aged 8 with 10st 9lbs or more
Have not won this race since 2002
If the weights go up I'd be concerned
But right now would keep him on side

VINTAGE CLOUDS an exposed 10yo
Don't think we can rule him out yet
But the fewer runs the better for him
All his wins in fields of 9 or fewer
Not convinced he did enough last time

ACTING LASS is shortlistable
Would not want the weights to rise

FLYING ANGEL is not ruled out
But coming from 2m 5f is not ideal
Only 1 of the last 18 winners did it
He only had 3 runs far less exposed

CHAMPERS ON ICE is an option
But just 4 chase runs would worry me
Previous winners has the following
25 6 10 21 8 3 12 26 14 10
31 3 10 8 13 22 15 14 28
Only 2 of the last 19 winners
Had under 6 previous chase runs
Both winners had less weight too

CALISPO COLLENGES is rated 127
Lowest rated horse in this handicap
The last 18 winners were rated 129 +
He would be lowest rated winner
In his favour he has been rated higher

Best recent profile

Horses aged 8 or more
Under 13 Chase runs
At least 2 runs this season
Under 10st 12lbs weight
Coming from 2m 7f-3m2f

Horses with the above profile
Have a promising 6-25 record
Winning this race in these years
2003 2004 2005 2007 2015 2018
CALISPO COLLENGES has this

He does have another entry
In the Amateur race at Ascot
Going to wait for declarations

Beautiful Bet 3

Current Balance

Bet 1 - £100.00
Bet 2 - £60.00

Yesterday I was considering
Shutting this bet down soon
Which will be in profit by £11
Should Man City beat Palace

Why risk the Palace game
Going to shut this down now

Current Balance is - £160
Current Stakes are £156.15

Shutting down now
Cashing in the stake money
Means a loss of only £3.85
Welcome that with open arms
Given the stress we endured

The reason to stop this now
If Man City failed on Saturday
We would be badly in trouble
Just not worth taking the risk

Soon we can look back at this
Wonder if this was beautiful
I would argue that it still was
Because of the staking plan
We have had nothing go well
We have never had a big drag
But we can get out half way
With only a £3.84 loss on it

So we are now finished
Suspect the bet annoyed a few
Will still keep a lose eye on this
See what would have happened

Ante Post

March 10th

Cheltenham Statistics

National Hunt Challenge Cup

Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase 3m5f201y

Carefully Selected 6/1 Champagne Classic 6/1
Danny Whizzbang 12/1 Battleoverdoyen 14/1
Two For Gold 14/1 Faugheen 16/1 Brahma Bull 20/1
Mulcahys Hill 25/1

Past winner chase runs
5 10 10 4 3 5 9 11 3 3 7 4 4 4 4 12 5

No horse has won this race
Having had under 3 Chase runs

Past winners lifetime starts
15 16 24 6 28 13 6 13 23 25 5
13 13 15 15 22 28 26 16 14

Only 3 of the last 19 winners
Had under 12 lifetime runs
They had 4 3 5 runs this season

Past winners runs this season
5 7 6 4 2 4 3 5 7 4 5 5 7 4 4
Only 1 past winner of this race
Won with under 3 runs that season

Number of Runs

2019 - 15 races - 05 Chase runs - 5 runs this year
2018 - 16 races - 10 Chase runs - 7 runs this year
2017 - 24 races - 10 Chase runs - 6 runs this year
2016 - 06 races - 04 Chase runs - 4 runs this year
2015 - 28 races - 10 Chase runs - 2 runs this year
2014 - 13 races - 04 Chase runs - 4 runs this year
2013 - 06 races - 03 Chase runs - 3 runs this year
2012 - 13 races - 05 Chase runs - 5 runs this year
2011 - 23 races - 09 Chase runs - 7 runs this year
2010 - 25 races - 11 Chase runs - 4 runs this year
2009 - 05 races - 03 Chase runs - 5 runs this year
2008 - 13 races - 03 Chase runs - 5 runs this year
2007 - 13 races - 07 Chase runs - 7 runs this year
2006 - 15 races - 04 Chase runs - 4 runs this year
2005 - 15 races - 04 Chase runs - 4 runs this year

Long absences are fine
As long as runs this year are fine
Past winners
Had the following absences
52 37 134 24 47 31 75 18 78 30
46 33 96 39 131 39 19 19 25

Horses running within 14 days
Have a 0-32 record in this race

Horses running within 3 months
Beaten over 20 lengths last time
Have 0-69 record since 1999

Horses aged 6
Have a 2-57 record since 2009
One of those winners was very lucky
Only 2 have won since 1989

Horses from Handicaps
Have an overall 4-163 record
Since 2019 all 66 that tried failed

Horses from 3m 4f or more
Have a 0-34 record since 2000
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