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Posted Jan 21, 2020 - 11:26 AM:

But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.

Serena Williams is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 15.53% chance of winning the whole thing, with Ashleigh Barty next at 15.3%. The 3rd most likely is Karolina Pliskova with 9.89% and Naomi Osaka 4th with 9.11%
Kiki Bertens has the easiest overall draw, as she is 1.58 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Madison Keys has a tough draw. She is 1.28 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected
The toughest 1st round draw went to Lesia Tsurenko, as she's 42.13 percentage points less likely to win than a player of her rank is expected to win. Kateryna Bondarenko got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's 30.93 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than her ranking would expect.

Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.

#	Name	ELO	R1 %	R2 %	R3 %	R4 %	R5 %	R6 %	R7 %
1	Ashleigh Barty	1885	84.73%	71.63%	59.23%	47.14%	35.12%	22.02%	15.30%
2	Lesia Tsurenko	1587	15.27%	7.62%	3.65%	1.56%	0.57%	0.15%	0.04%
3	Polona Hercog	1549	40.79%	7.15%	3.06%	1.16%	0.37%	0.08%	0.02%
4	Rebecca Peterson	1614	59.21%	13.60%	7.02%	3.26%	1.31%	0.37%	0.13%
5	Aliaksandra Sasnovich	1530	53.58%	19.01%	3.80%	1.34%	0.40%	0.08%	0.02%
6	Greet Minnen	1505	46.42%	15.02%	2.71%	0.87%	0.24%	0.04%	0.01%
7	Bernada Pera	1543	31.33%	16.78%	3.54%	1.31%	0.41%	0.09%	0.02%
8	Elena Rybakina	1679	68.67%	49.19%	17.00%	9.41%	4.61%	1.66%	0.70%
9	Alison Riske	1650	63.06%	46.91%	22.93%	7.95%	3.58%	1.16%	0.45%
10	Wang Yafan	1557	36.94%	23.27%	8.47%	2.12%	0.70%	0.16%	0.04%
11	Viktorija Golubic	1482	55.53%	17.68%	4.84%	0.90%	0.22%	0.04%	0.01%
12	Zhu Lin	1443	44.47%	12.14%	2.83%	0.44%	0.09%	0.01%	0.00%
13	Julia Gorges	1658	66.45%	32.76%	20.06%	7.13%	3.28%	1.09%	0.43%
14	Viktoria Kuzmova	1539	33.55%	11.39%	5.15%	1.20%	0.37%	0.08%	0.02%
15	Christina McHale	1483	21.52%	6.88%	2.61%	0.49%	0.12%	0.02%	0.00%
16	Petra Martic	1708	78.48%	48.97%	33.11%	13.72%	7.24%	2.87%	1.32%
17	Madison Keys	1756	69.78%	53.90%	40.02%	24.47%	12.13%	5.55%	2.93%
18	Daria Kasatkina	1611	30.22%	18.08%	10.12%	4.27%	1.37%	0.38%	0.13%
19	Magda Linette	1576	64.08%	20.44%	10.46%	3.96%	1.12%	0.27%	0.08%
20	Arantxa Rus	1476	35.92%	7.58%	2.83%	0.75%	0.14%	0.02%	0.00%
21	Nao Hibino	1486	42.60%	14.87%	3.99%	1.09%	0.22%	0.04%	0.01%
22	Peng Shuai	1537	57.40%	24.01%	7.83%	2.60%	0.63%	0.13%	0.03%
23	Margarita Gasparyan	1537	37.04%	19.69%	6.42%	2.13%	0.52%	0.11%	0.03%
24	Maria Sakkari	1629	62.96%	41.42%	18.32%	8.18%	2.79%	0.84%	0.30%
25	Ekaterina Alexandrova	1655	69.89%	45.98%	21.56%	10.93%	4.05%	1.34%	0.52%
26	Jil Teichmann	1509	30.11%	13.69%	4.07%	1.30%	0.28%	0.05%	0.01%
27	Kaia Kanepi	1566	59.03%	25.84%	9.34%	3.65%	0.99%	0.23%	0.07%
28	Barbora Krejcikova	1503	40.97%	14.49%	4.23%	1.32%	0.28%	0.05%	0.01%
29	Paula Badosa	1476	52.59%	11.24%	3.88%	1.09%	0.21%	0.03%	0.01%
30	Johanna Larsson	1458	47.41%	9.38%	3.03%	0.80%	0.14%	0.02%	0.00%
31	Katerina Siniakova	1528	20.45%	12.01%	4.98%	1.71%	0.40%	0.08%	0.02%
32	Petra Kvitova	1764	79.55%	67.37%	48.90%	31.76%	16.08%	7.54%	4.07%
33	Naomi Osaka	1833	87.38%	74.88%	57.32%	42.03%	24.22%	14.42%	9.11%
34	Marie Bouzkova	1497	12.62%	5.93%	1.97%	0.62%	0.12%	0.02%	0.01%
35	Zheng Saisai	1553	63.01%	13.73%	5.54%	2.11%	0.51%	0.13%	0.03%
36	Anna Kalinskaya	1460	36.99%	5.46%	1.57%	0.43%	0.07%	0.01%	0.00%
37	Venus Williams	1688	65.65%	43.91%	17.92%	9.99%	3.90%	1.59%	0.69%
38	Coco Gauff	1576	34.35%	17.69%	5.02%	2.06%	0.54%	0.15%	0.04%
39	Sorana Cirstea	1531	41.52%	14.04%	3.38%	1.19%	0.26%	0.06%	0.01%
40	Barbora Strycova	1590	58.48%	24.36%	7.27%	3.11%	0.87%	0.25%	0.08%
41	Sloane Stephens	1615	55.29%	35.01%	15.54%	5.32%	1.62%	0.52%	0.18%
42	Zhang Shuai	1578	44.71%	26.06%	10.37%	3.12%	0.83%	0.23%	0.07%
43	Samantha Stosur	1543	58.17%	24.53%	8.75%	2.31%	0.54%	0.13%	0.03%
44	Caty McNally	1486	41.83%	14.39%	4.21%	0.89%	0.16%	0.03%	0.01%
45	Ann Li	1489	52.10%	13.08%	5.09%	1.09%	0.20%	0.04%	0.01%
46	Lizette Cabrera	1475	47.90%	11.36%	4.20%	0.84%	0.15%	0.03%	0.01%
47	Martina Trevisan	1447	15.78%	7.09%	2.36%	0.42%	0.06%	0.01%	0.00%
48	Sofia Kenin	1738	84.22%	68.47%	49.48%	24.49%	11.09%	5.22%	2.63%
49	Johanna Konta	1729	75.20%	55.19%	32.92%	14.25%	7.04%	3.24%	1.59%
50	Ons Jabeur	1537	24.80%	12.00%	4.04%	0.94%	0.24%	0.06%	0.01%
51	Madison Brengle	1458	31.87%	7.22%	1.79%	0.30%	0.06%	0.01%	0.00%
52	Caroline Garcia	1590	68.13%	25.59%	10.37%	2.91%	0.93%	0.27%	0.08%
53	Kristie Ahn	1516	25.76%	9.02%	2.92%	0.62%	0.15%	0.03%	0.01%
54	Caroline Wozniacki	1700	74.24%	44.21%	24.91%	9.91%	4.51%	1.90%	0.86%
55	Kaja Juvan	1489	25.51%	7.37%	2.16%	0.42%	0.09%	0.02%	0.00%
56	Dayana Yastremska	1675	74.49%	39.40%	20.90%	7.73%	3.27%	1.28%	0.53%
57	Wang Qiang	1633	71.75%	44.89%	13.19%	5.86%	2.17%	0.74%	0.27%
58	Pauline Parmentier	1471	28.25%	11.27%	1.83%	0.45%	0.09%	0.02%	0.00%
59	Fiona Ferro	1503	40.51%	15.59%	2.88%	0.81%	0.18%	0.04%	0.01%
60	Alison Van Uytvanck	1570	59.49%	28.25%	6.68%	2.41%	0.71%	0.19%	0.06%
61	Tamara Zidansek	1499	55.70%	8.01%	3.14%	0.87%	0.19%	0.04%	0.01%
62	Han Na-Lae	1459	44.30%	5.33%	1.82%	0.42%	0.08%	0.01%	0.00%
63	Anastasia Potapova	1519	11.33%	6.28%	2.64%	0.79%	0.19%	0.04%	0.01%
64	Serena Williams	1877	88.67%	80.38%	67.83%	51.32%	34.94%	22.67%	15.53%
65	Belinda Bencic	1726	82.67%	56.23%	35.74%	20.69%	11.60%	5.65%	2.25%
66	Anna Karolina Schmiedlova	1455	17.33%	5.52%	1.55%	0.37%	0.08%	0.01%	0.00%
67	Liudmila Samsonova	1498	31.47%	8.58%	2.85%	0.80%	0.22%	0.05%	0.01%
68	Jelena Ostapenko	1633	68.53%	29.67%	15.15%	6.85%	2.99%	1.09%	0.31%
69	Sara Sorribes Tormo	1443	27.29%	7.09%	1.63%	0.37%	0.08%	0.01%	0.00%
70	Veronika Kudermetova	1614	72.71%	34.08%	14.63%	6.24%	2.56%	0.87%	0.23%
71	Astra Sharma	1479	23.62%	8.96%	2.38%	0.62%	0.16%	0.03%	0.00%
72	Anett Kontaveit	1683	76.38%	49.86%	26.07%	13.56%	6.81%	2.92%	1.01%
73	Donna Vekic	1634	41.73%	25.56%	11.73%	5.38%	2.35%	0.86%	0.25%
74	Maria Sharapova	1692	58.27%	40.05%	21.47%	11.56%	5.95%	2.63%	0.93%
75	Alize Cornet	1586	62.42%	24.07%	9.56%	3.76%	1.41%	0.44%	0.10%
76	Monica Niculescu	1498	37.58%	10.33%	3.02%	0.86%	0.23%	0.05%	0.01%
77	Iga Swiatek	1560	67.70%	21.03%	8.43%	3.04%	1.04%	0.29%	0.06%
78	Timea Babos	1432	32.30%	5.83%	1.43%	0.31%	0.06%	0.01%	0.00%
79	Carla Suarez Navarro	1596	29.36%	17.78%	7.99%	3.24%	1.26%	0.40%	0.10%
80	Aryna Sabalenka	1748	70.64%	55.36%	36.36%	22.35%	13.19%	6.82%	2.91%
81	Elise Mertens	1677	82.12%	57.95%	35.18%	17.02%	8.42%	3.56%	1.20%
82	Danka Kovinic	1412	17.88%	6.13%	1.61%	0.30%	0.06%	0.01%	0.00%
83	Kristyna Pliskova	1531	51.69%	18.92%	7.71%	2.33%	0.71%	0.18%	0.03%
84	Heather Watson	1519	48.31%	16.99%	6.66%	1.92%	0.56%	0.13%	0.02%
85	Catherine Bellis	1584	67.56%	30.68%	14.35%	5.22%	1.92%	0.59%	0.14%
86	Tatjana Maria	1456	32.44%	9.46%	2.89%	0.65%	0.14%	0.03%	0.00%
87	Kirsten Flipkens	1502	28.51%	12.63%	4.56%	1.23%	0.33%	0.07%	0.01%
88	Karolina Muchova	1661	71.49%	47.22%	27.04%	12.53%	5.93%	2.38%	0.76%
89	Danielle Collins	1629	77.86%	41.04%	16.87%	8.64%	3.70%	1.33%	0.38%
90	Vitalia Diatchenko	1411	22.14%	5.34%	1.02%	0.24%	0.04%	0.01%	0.00%
91	Yulia Putintseva	1590	44.72%	22.75%	8.30%	3.80%	1.43%	0.45%	0.11%
92	Hsieh Su-Wei	1627	55.28%	30.87%	12.60%	6.41%	2.73%	0.97%	0.27%
93	Harriet Dart	1443	47.98%	8.10%	2.29%	0.63%	0.13%	0.02%	0.00%
94	Misaki Doi	1457	52.02%	9.35%	2.79%	0.81%	0.18%	0.03%	0.00%
95	Jennifer Brady	1564	21.93%	14.43%	6.31%	2.68%	0.92%	0.26%	0.06%
96	Simona Halep	1785	78.07%	68.12%	49.82%	35.58%	22.81%	12.92%	6.15%
97	Elina Svitolina	1774	82.60%	68.67%	47.79%	30.59%	17.71%	10.70%	4.94%
98	Katie Boulter	1504	17.40%	8.88%	2.97%	0.89%	0.22%	0.06%	0.01%
99	Lauren Davis	1514	55.52%	13.33%	4.63%	1.44%	0.37%	0.10%	0.02%
100	Leylah Annie Fernandez	1475	44.48%	9.12%	2.74%	0.74%	0.16%	0.04%	0.01%
101	Garbine Muguruza	1679	74.84%	46.06%	22.21%	11.50%	5.23%	2.48%	0.84%
102	Shelby Rogers	1489	25.16%	8.85%	2.33%	0.67%	0.16%	0.04%	0.01%
103	Ajla Tomljanovic	1561	41.36%	16.68%	5.66%	2.08%	0.64%	0.21%	0.04%
104	Anastasija Sevastova	1621	58.64%	28.41%	11.67%	5.17%	1.98%	0.78%	0.21%
105	Amanda Anisimova	1649	68.88%	48.73%	22.84%	10.18%	4.25%	1.84%	0.56%
106	Zarina Diyas	1511	31.12%	16.25%	5.01%	1.39%	0.36%	0.09%	0.02%
107	Jasmine Paolini	1486	47.41%	16.04%	4.54%	1.14%	0.27%	0.06%	0.01%
108	Anna Blinkova	1504	52.59%	18.98%	5.72%	1.55%	0.39%	0.10%	0.02%
109	Kateryna Bondarenko	1459	56.09%	11.72%	4.07%	0.92%	0.19%	0.04%	0.01%
110	Arina Rodionova	1416	43.91%	7.66%	2.27%	0.42%	0.07%	0.01%	0.00%
111	Irina-Camelia Begu	1470	16.36%	8.87%	3.21%	0.75%	0.16%	0.04%	0.01%
112	Kiki Bertens	1753	83.64%	71.74%	52.35%	30.56%	16.86%	9.72%	4.21%
113	Marketa Vondrousova	1706	62.02%	42.04%	27.80%	13.38%	6.68%	3.41%	1.27%
114	Svetlana Kuznetsova	1620	37.98%	21.55%	11.90%	4.48%	1.73%	0.68%	0.19%
115	Antonia Lottner	1457	28.60%	6.48%	2.20%	0.45%	0.09%	0.02%	0.00%
116	Camila Giorgi	1616	71.40%	29.94%	16.36%	6.07%	2.31%	0.90%	0.24%
117	Kateryna Kozlova	1490	56.60%	18.71%	5.54%	1.30%	0.31%	0.07%	0.01%
118	Priscilla Hon	1444	43.40%	12.03%	2.95%	0.58%	0.11%	0.02%	0.00%
119	Elisabetta Cocciaretto	1485	26.29%	13.73%	3.99%	0.92%	0.21%	0.05%	0.01%
120	Angelique Kerber	1664	73.71%	55.53%	29.25%	12.56%	5.58%	2.53%	0.81%
121	Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova	1641	69.29%	44.48%	16.20%	8.21%	3.39%	1.43%	0.42%
122	Nina Stojanovic	1500	30.71%	13.63%	2.96%	0.95%	0.23%	0.06%	0.01%
123	Taylor Townsend	1513	43.44%	16.68%	3.82%	1.29%	0.34%	0.09%	0.02%
124	Jessica Pegula	1559	56.56%	25.21%	6.90%	2.73%	0.85%	0.27%	0.06%
125	Laura Siegemund	1566	52.39%	12.00%	5.78%	2.34%	0.75%	0.24%	0.05%
126	Coco Vandeweghe	1550	47.61%	10.17%	4.66%	1.78%	0.54%	0.16%	0.03%
127	Kristina Mladenovic	1623	22.56%	13.35%	7.48%	3.60%	1.40%	0.56%	0.15%
128	Karolina Pliskova	1837	77.44%	64.48%	52.21%	39.35%	26.45%	18.10%	9.89%

administrator

Posted Jan 21, 2020 - 05:38 AM:

regerg

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regsrthrst

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