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Mathematician 373

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Mathematician 373

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Monday May 25th

No Account Bet

1 Selection

Leicester 2.40

WATSON'S BAY 11/4

Going with one selection. Very busy bank holiday but its
a message thats been very hard to finish because of so many
meetings and why its also been sent later than normal. The
E mail is just a run through several races on the day and any
flaws in detail and quality are down to the amount of racing I
have had to contend with today. I dont expect a hatful of
winners from the message. I think WATSON'S BAY ought
to win the seller at Leicester. I have gone with him as I feel
there are several against him with difficult tasks. I dont enjoy
the Bank Holiday messages as I dont get enough chance to
play the videos I need to and these days I try and keep them
as tight as possible. Todays bet is just a standard selection.
When I shake off this annoying run and feel better prepared
and know I have things right I will advise some stronger bets
but I am not there today so just one selection on the day and
WATSONS BAY should be around 11/4

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G

Yesterdays selection RUSTIC JOHN ran like a pig and was
beaten early. He may well be a pig. It was a leap of faith bet
and I knew there was the potential for him to run as badly
as he did but I did feel I had made a very decent case for him
considering the opposition he faced. One of those bets where
you are in the dark about a horse and sometimes a calculated
risk works and sometimes it didnt. This time it didnt sadly.
I like these bets much more during a hot spell of winners as
they are less important. During a cold spell they sting a bit
more especially when not running well. He really must be
useless if he couldnt win that race off bottomweight. Not
too unhappy though as I felt the arguments were good and
made sense and I was surprised he ran as badly as he did. I
dont know what to make of the late jockey change he had
and its best to put him down as failed extravagance.

Bank Holiday Today. Far too much racing to do a standard
message. It will have to be a scattergun message again. I do
not want to spend any time on the structure of the message
as I cant afford the time and wont be able to cover it all.

LEICESTER 2.05

Leicester has 24 similar races at this time of year and we have
533 similar races elsewhere in May and June. I looked at Fillies
with 1 run that season and they didnt score well. Older fillies
aged 4 or more doing that won 13 of the 533 races but those
who had under 7 runs as MISS PELLING does have a 0-46
record and I would try and oppose her. HIDDEN DOOR is
also rejected for identical reasons. CHANNEL CROSSING is
out aged 7 absent 246 days. LOCUM won on his first run that
year and all similar 4 year olds that did that and won again were
a different type and much lighter raced and I wasnt convinced
about him. MISTER TRICKSTER isnt for me as I couldnt find
an 8 year old that won a similar race having gone up in trip
without a very recent run. GASAT and NASSAR are reasonable
but none of their types won a Leicester race but did elsewhere.
Given all the profiles I felt GASAT and NASSAR were possible
shortlist material but DUBBURG looked best to me.

CHESPSTOW 2.15

I would oppose STRAVELLA in this maiden as an older filly
with 1 run this year. In 148 of these all aged maidens in May
and June older fillies are 2-110 and thats poor considering the
two that won had at least 5 runs that year and a recent run
and that would put me off AINIA the favourite. Looked at
all fillies of any age that were seasonal debutants like her. I
didnt find any her age or any that came down in trip or any
that had 5 or more runs so AINIA doesnt look right to me.
REPORTAGE is shortlisted and much will depend on how
good he is. Best profile has to be MONETARY FUND as
horses placed in 8f maidens last time were excellent. Those
3yo Colts like him with 2 runs that season had a brilliant
9-14 record. Hard to know just how far you can trust this
horse but purely on profiles MONETARY FUND is by far
the best and only Reportage came close.

LEICESTER 2.40

Complicated selling race over just short of 10f and we've 58
similar races to draw trends from. I am against SCEILIN and
LADY VALENTINO as fillies with 1 run that year as these
types score badly. BECKENHAM´S SECRET and GLAN
LADY come from 6f races and none of the 58 winners did
that. Older exposed mares up in trip have not done well so
MADDY coming from a seller and RED CURRENT didnt
appeal. Of all the 3yo fillies that won none were as exposed
as ROSE OF COMA or came from sellers. I couldnt bet a
horse with under 4 runs so JERONIMO JOE is out. The
likes of SPECIAL CHAPTER and DEN'S BOY look out of
their depth. Horses beaten in claimers like TAPAS LAD are
poor. Horses from claimers with under 21 runs were only 1-97
suggesting that we should oppose DALRYMPLE. The one
with comfortably the strongest profile is WATSON´S BAY
and I think he will win this race.

REDCAR 2.45

Marathon Staying Handicap for 3 year olds. I would ignore
all the outsiders. INDEPENDENT JAMES has to go from
8f and TOP TINKER from 10f last time out. The last 16
winners of this race all had a run within 7 weeks and I didnt
see ROYAL SOCIETY winning with his absence. Only one
of the last 16 winners had 1 run that season (1-51) and thats
a concern for NEW TRICKS and he is out. The only fillies
to win this were high weights. None of the female winners of
this came from 12f handicaps like PURE CRYSTAL. I dont
see why the other filly BOLLIN JUDITH should win and I
dont want her. SCREAMING BRAVE shouldnt stay. The
12f Beverley handicap 13 days ago could be the important
race as 2 runners come from that. My reading of those 2 is
that TAE KWON DO (2nd) is a bit exposed and could find
ADDISON DE WITT improves past him today. I think
GOSFORTH PARK has every chance as well. I shortlist
these two in order of preference.

GOSFORTH PARK
ADDISON DE WITT

CHEPSTOW 2.50

Any of the main 3 runners can win this. I felt the weakest of
the 3 was PALACEFIELD but I couldnt make him a negative
as winners like him have won. LUC JORDAN is "strong" on
profile but PARK LANE has a better profile and would just
shade it to me and PARK LANE odds allowing may be the
best each way bet in the race.

GOODWOOD 3.10

This race has never gone to a maiden winner or a horse that
had under 5 runs and MADE TO RANSOM may well be
the wrong type. ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE is far more exposed
than any other debutant winner and TRANQUIL TIGER is
also in the same boat. ONCE MORE DUBAI has a difficult
absence and PERKS doesnt appeal on the ground. I would
have liked ORDNANCE ROW to have more form at the
trip. The two I liked best were CHARLIE FARNSBARNS
who comes from the same race as a past winner and also
PINPOINT who has a decent profile as well.

LEICESTER 3.15

FILLIGREE has a weak profile and didnt do enough last time. No
filly won with 1 run that season from a 7f race unless lightly raced
and OCEAN TRANSIT is weak on those grounds. I looked at 4yo
seasonal debutants in all similar races. Those with under 9 career
runs had a 0-23 record suggesting PERFECT SILENCE may not
have it all her own way. I couldnt find a horse beaten as far as
ARTISTIC LICENSE was recently and I didnt like her profile.
I would only want either MANGO MUSIC or DORIC LADY
in this race. Given the choice I would see MANGO MUSIC as
very well handicapped and a small field horse and good enough
to win a race like this. MANGO MUSIC for me

REDCAR 3.20

I would have shortisted only 3 of these. Tight margins between
the three. In preference HIGH OFFICE just shaded it ahead of
TIGER REIGNS and PUZZLEMASTER.

GOODWOOD 2.35

CHILDREN UNDER 18 RACE FREE AT GOODWOOD
HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-80) 6f

11/2 Golden Dixie, 11/2 The Tatling, 13/2 Blue Jack, 13/2
Fantasy Believer, 7/1 Alfresco, 9/1 Orange Pip, 14/1 Willridge,
16/1 Count Ceprano, 16/1 Mymumsaysimthebest 20/1 C'Mon
You Irons, 25/1 Sam's Cross.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-80 rated horses
* In May and June we have 440 similar races
* Thats 440 handicaps over 6f in Class 3-4-5
* There are some horses with Shaky profiles
* Horses aged 11 or more have a 0-54 record in 440 races
* Horses this age are very vulnerable and I oppose them
* THE TATLING is aged 11 and opposed
* FANTASY BELIEVER is aged 11 and opposed
* SAMS CROSS comes from a Claimer as did 9 winners
* Horses like him aged 4 doing that were poor (1-44)
* Horses like him with under 13 runs doing it were 0-32
* None of them came from a 7f Claimer as well
* SAMS CROSS doesnt have a good profile to me
* C´MON YOU IRONS comes from a selling race
* In 440 races no 4 year old won from a seller
* His 85 day absence is a serious worry as well
* No 4 year old that ran that season defied that absence
* WILLRIDGE is a 4 year old and a seasonal debutant
* I looked at all 4yo debutants in 440 races
* None had under 5 runs as he does (0-25)
* None also came from 8f as he does
* I cant find a winner likee WILLRIDGE in 440 races
* MYMUMSAYSIMTHEBEST is a 4yo from a maiden
* 4yo's from maidens have a 3-60 record in 440 races
* None of these came from 7f maidens as he does
* If you look at 4yo's from maidens with 5 + runs
* These types have a weak 1-34 record in 440 races
* The only winner had multiple runs that year
* MYMUMSAYSIMTHEBEST doesnt appeal much
* GOLDEN DIXIE is a 10 year old
* I dont much like horses that old
* Horses aged 9 + that ran within 2 weeks struggled
* When they came from 6f handicaps like him they were 5-121
* Those with under 6 runs that season were 1-75
* In 440 races only 1 horse was like GOLDEN DIXIE
* I also dislike his drawn in stall one
* Draw Stats show thats the worst draw in this race
* On the plus side GOLDEN DIXIE is very well handicapped
* He seems fit and in form and that stops me opposing him
* He wouldnt be my choice but he isnt out of this
* In 41 Goodwood races over 6f in May and June
* Horses aged 8 or more were 0-80 in these races
* Thats another argument against the following 3 horses
* GOLDEN DIXIE - THE TATLING - FANTASY BELIEVER
* ORANGE PIP is a 4 year old filly
* Looked at 4yo fillies like her with under 9 career runs
* The record was only 3-78 in the 440 races
* None of those had 2 + runs that year
* ORANGE PIP doesnt have a brilliant profile
* I would be uncomfortable with her profile
* ALFRESCO comes from an 8f handicap
* 15 of the 440 winners came from 8f races
* Only 3 like ALFRESCO defied a months absence doing so
* None had under 4 runs that season and he only has 3
* Only 1 came from handicaps over 8f (1-24)
* ALFRESCO has a unimpressive profile for me
* All his wins have also come on sand as well
* He is 0-16 on Grass but he has ran well on turf
* I couldnt rule him out but he does have issues

SHORTLIST

BLUE JACK - COUNT CEPRANO

* BLUE JACK has a complicated profile
* I have found 3 similar winners in the 440 races
* He isnt dead statistically
* In a race full of rotten profiles i'd shortlist him
* COUNT CEPRANO comes from a recent 7f handicap
* In 440 races exposed horses like him doing that were fine
* I would like him to have been closer last time
* There has been similar winners though and he is 25/1

SELECTION

Win Bet on BLUE JACK 8/1
Win Bet on COUNT COUGAR 25/1

REDCAR 3.55

The Zetland gold cup trends are not impressive. I came down
to KINGDOM OF FIFE and KING CHARLES . Felt they
had the best profiles but thats reflected in the market. May
be a race to bet KING CHARLES each way.

CHEPSTOW 4.35

I wouldnt want KEEP DANCING in this fillies handicap as
she comes from a 5f maiden. STRAITJACKET is weak as no
horse won a similar race with 1 run that season when they had
5 or more career starts. MARY MASON is out with her absence.
RIVER RYE is out from a seller. PEANUT GIRL has the worst
draw for me. CASTER SUGAR is unlikely to defy her absence.
ASIAN TALE didnt do enough last time. Almost every winner
of this race dropped in trip from 7f or more and came from high
in the weights and that would just support PERFECT FRIEND's
chance rather than her rivals. Gut feeling is a high draw is best and
interesting that the only past winner to come from 6f race was in
2005 when Jolie won and she came from the same 6f Nottingham
handicap BOLD ROSE comes from and like her she was beaten a
fair way at Nottingham. Wouldnt surprise me if BOLD ROSE
bounced back from a high draw to win this. ASSENT comes from
the same race but isnt drawn as well but she did beat BOLD ROSE
at Nottingham. I would give FORWARD FELINE a chance. My
shortlist would be the following 4 horses.

BOLD ROSE - ASSENT
FORWARD FELINE -PERFECT FRIEND

LEICESTER 5.00

I shortlisted BEN BACHUS and COMRADE COTTON just
prefered to Desert Hawk and Fistral as they had recent runs.

REDCAR 5.05

Very difficult 14f handicap. Decided KIRSTYS LAD was not
for me as 44 horses came from 10f races within the previous 2
weeks lost. ROCKNEST ISLAND is out with an absence and
CRIPSEY BROOK may not be fit. MISTER ARJAY didnt do
enough last time. CELTIC CARISMA is out as a mare with 1
run this year and MASTER NIMBUS aged 9 doing the same.
I'd make MISS KECK and ZEEFOOHA positives. Marginally
better is MONTE PATTINO as last time out recent winners
score very well.

CHEPSTOW 5.10

I felt STRINGSOFMYHEART had a poor profile and didnt
see her winning this race again as she did last year. I dont want
BUSHY DELL either. ADDIENA came out weak as a seasonal
debutant coming from an 8f race. LILLIE LE QUESNE is out as
a 7f horse. ORONSAY hasnt done enough to win from out of
the weights. I see this between LUSH and PARTY PALACE
and it will depend on how much LUSH has improved over the
winter. Marginal preference for LUSH over Party Palace.

GOODWOOD 5.30

I would have opposed STAR OF POMPEY as a female
seasonal debutant. IMPERIUM is out from an 8f race as
he steps up too far. MARIE LOUISE didnt do enough
last time. PLAY UP POMPEY comes out as vulnerable.
MAKE AMENDS looks beatable and hasnt shown she
stays. I see this between COSSACK PRINCE and also
STREETS APART and the latter being lighter raced and
a filly with 1 run this year going up in trip does worry
me. Thats why I prefer COSSACK PRINCE

CHEPSTOW 5.40

I felt DHUSHAN may probably improve past GIBB RIVER
and out stay him but GIBB RIVER is excellent statistically and
I wonder if he isnt the better bet in an each way double. Thats
probably the way I would go as this race is dominated by the
horses that had 4 + runs.

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Rating

0/5 based on 0 votes.

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