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Mathematician 370

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Mathematician 370

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Friday May 22nd

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1 Selections

Pontefract 6.30

AUSSIE BLUE 12/1 Win Bet

AGGRAVATION 5/1 (Saver bet)

We are still in a dangerous period. I have dealt with that
by not putting any bets up lately. I dont mind having a
selection if there is value to be had though at good odds
and I see AUSSIE BLUE as offering that. This is not a
banker by any means. He was however second in this
race last year and has a better profile this year and less
weight and the race is full of horses that have difficult
tasks. AGGRAVATION is suggested as a saver much
as he doesnt win very often. He is however rock solid
and looks certain to go close and as we are getting 12/1
about AUSSIE BLUE there's plenty of room for saving.

I quite like the 7pm at Pontefract and BLACK DAHLIA
around 12/1 but I would want to see some market support
for her. If that came she is certainly worth a bet. I take the
view that when she wins she will be well backed and she is
a horse whose chance may be reflected in the market. Over
at Brighton in the 3.30 I think ZERO COOL may finally
get the win he has long been threatening and I am betting
him as well around 3/1. TRYST ought to win the 4.05pm
at Newmarket but the dogs are barking this one and price
will be short. Its a Scattergun Message but deliberately so.

When I work myself back into form and get my timing
right we will be in a position where we have not got to
get any losses back or recover any money. Betting all the
Account bets and Selections in the last two weeks shows
a small profit. Thats in a period where I have been awful.
If we can do no damage in bad times consider what we can
do when the good runs come and one of those is due soon.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G

Not had a bet for a few days. I knew I hadnt nailed it
yesterday and sometimes breaking level should be seen
as a win when the cards offer so little on softer ground.

I have changed the Format today. Just wanted to take
out anything that wastes time. Plenty of comments in
several races and where I like the race I have expanded
a bit but I wanted tro free up time for some video work
and make sure I gave myself the best chance of winning

The only detailed preview today is the Pontefract 6.30
and I start the message there as I like the race and feel I
have a chance of a decent priced winner. After that all
the races are summarised. As ever my strongest opinions
are summarised at the top of the message

PONTEFRACT 6.30

ST. JOHN AMBULANCE HANDICAP
(CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 1m4y

9/2 Blue Charm, 5/1 Aggravation, 11/2 Marvo, 8/1 Castlebury
8/1 Distant Pleasure, 10/1 Tamasou, 12/1 Billy One Punch
14/1 Golden Future, 14/1 Wednesdays Boy, 16/1 San Silvestro
20/1 Aussie Blue, 20/1 Natural Rhythm, 25/1 Direct Debit
25/1 Hunt The Bottle, 25/1 Spirit Of France, 40/1 Singora Lady.

* This is a Mile Handicap for 0-70 horses
* Pontefract has 9 renewals of this race
* There has been 175 similar races since 1993
* You dont want a High Draw in this race
* Since 2007 there has been 28 handicaps over this trip
* Horses drawn 10 or more have a 1-121 record
* There are 2 very sharp bends just after the start
* The high numbers get marooned out wide
* SPIRIT OF FRANCE - NATURAL RHYTHM are badly drawn
* SINGORA LADY is a badly drawn filly with an absence
* HUNT THE BOTTLE is drawn badly in stall 13
* He also has to come from a 6f race
* BLUE CHARM is not well drawn in stall 11
* BLUE CHARM won the last 8f handicap here
* He had a low draw that day though
* He also has a career high mark
* Winning over 3 weeks ago is no advantage
* DISTANT PLEASURE is drawn wide as well in stall 12
* She is a Female Seasonal debutant
* In 175 races these horses have a 4-118 record
* All 4 that managed it all achieved more than her
* She may pop up and win but she isnt for me
* Not as a female debutant not well drawn
* SAN SILVESTRO is badly drawn
* With 1 run this year and a break he is vulnerable
* TAMASOU is a 4yo seasonal debutant
* In 175 races these types had a 6-206 record
* However 4 year olds doing that with 9 + runs were 0-106
* He is too exposed as a 4yo to overcome his absence
* BILLY ONE PUNCH is a seasonal debutant aged 7
* 4 of the 175 winners were debutants aged 7 or more
* However BILLY ONE PUNCH doesnt appeal
* His 3 wins came after 6-8-12 day absences
* He looks a small field horse
* He wouldnt be my first choice
* DIRECT DEBIT is out of form
* Recently downgraded stables he isnt backable
* GOLDEN FUTURE doesnt look fit to me
* He is 6 and has ran just twice since 2006
* In 175 races I looked at horses like him
* Coming from 7f - 1/2 runs this year - absent 2 weeks +
* These horses had a poor 4-147 record
* None of these were 6 year olds
* I think he needs more runs before being fit
* WEDNESDAYS BOY is an exposed 6yo absent 114 days
* There were 8 older winners with similar absences
* You cant rule him out because of this
* However all his wins came in August on soft ground
* He has never won with an absence like this
* He has never won from a handicap mark so high
* I respect him but dont want to select him
* MARVO comes from 7f with under 3 runs this year
* Male Horses doing that had a 7-202 record
*Those that had no Class 3 or better form in that record struggled
* These types had a 0-72 record
* My gut feeling is he needs at least another run
* CASTLEBURY ran poorly last time out
* It may have been the softer ground that did that
* He may also have needed the run
* I looked at 4 year olds with a 10 + length beating last time
* I looked at those like him that had under 3 runs that year
* 11 of the 178 winners managed that which isnt bad
* Those that dropped in trip like him was 0-52
* CASTLEBURY is unimpressive statistically
* You couldnt entirely rule him out though

SHORTLIST

AUSSIE BLUE
AGGRAVATION

* AUSSIE BLUE was second in this race in 2008
* He has 2lbs less weight this year
* He has 1 extra run as well this year
* He also has a much better drawn than he did last year
* AUSSIE BLUE ran well last time at Beverley
* She made the running and may have gone off too fast
* AUSSIE BLUE has a good chance of taking this
* AGGRAVATION is statistically fine
* He isnt easy to win with
* He is consistent though and has form more than good enough
* He is more likely to run 2nd or 3rd than win
* He does offer most evidence he can win this race on form
* Ideally I would prefer more runs this year
* AGGRAVATION has to be considered
* It would be criminal to lose money on the race if he won

SELECTION-AUSSIE BLUE
Saver- AGGRAVATION

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Nmkt 2.20 - BELL´S OCEAN has 2 runs and hasnt placed
Nmkt 2.20 - On a Grade 1 track maiden that worries me
Nmkt 2.20 - Exact record of those types are 1-41
Nmkt 2.20 - Would prefer something else if possible

Brighton 2.30 - Ziggy Lee is unimpressive statistically
Brighton 2.30 - In similar races 3yo's from 3yo handicaps are oiir
Brighton 2.30 - Males like Ziggy Lee doing that are 0-43
Brighton 2.30 - Digital (age) - Cape Royal (Age-Absence) are out
Brighton 2.30 - Sonhador - Firenza Bond dont appeal
Brighton 2.30 - I am fine with all other runners
Brighton 2.30 - COSMIC DESTINY looks an option
Brighton 2.30 - She ran 2 days ago and should improve
Brighton 2.30 -COSMIC DESTINY was entiled to need that

Newcastle 2.45 - ORTHOLOGY would be my choice
Newcastle 2.45 - He wasnt fit last time and hated fast ground
Newcastle 2.45 - With a recent run from a 3yo handicap he looks good
Newcastle 2.45 - I would much rather bet him than anything else
Newcastle 2.45 - His trainer states he will stay 12f on soft
Newcastle 2.45 - Not a maximum by any means but I prefered him

Brighton 3.05 - Theocritus is best horse at the weights
Brighton 3.05 - He bled last time and is a problem horse
Brighton 3.05 - I wouldnt trust him and statistically hes weak
Brighton 3.05 - 25 sellers like this and none had his profile
Brighton 3.05 - 3 year olds and poor in these races (0-31 in this race)
Brighton 3.05 - FORTY THIRTY makes no appeal off 77 days
Brighton 3.05 - I would oppose all other 3yo's
Brighton 3.05 - SOLO RIVER is respected and may win
Brighton 3.05 - ZERO COOL with backclass looks the one
Brighton 3.05 - ZERO COOL offers more than any other horse
Brighton 3.05 - ZERO COOL looks worth a bet

Nmkt 2.55 - Prefered SPECIAL RESERVE to Talayeb
Nmkt 2.55 - Couldnt have Spell Caster as filly with long break

Nmkt 3.30 - LONDON BRIDGE will probably win
Nmkt 3.30 - Cecil won last 2 renewals and runs Madison Park
Nmkt 3.30 - That'd put me off betting a short priced favourite

Newc 3.55 - 6f Claimer and few that can win
Newc 3.55 - AAHAYGIRL looks weak statistically
Newc 3.55 - I dont like her as a filly with an absence
Newc 3.55 - She is also a filly from a maiden
Newc 3.55 - No filly won a claimer like this from a maiden
Newc 3.55 - In her favour is she handles the ground
Newc 3.55 - UPPER KEY is far too inexperienced
Newc 3.55 - I looked at horses like NCHIKE from 7f handicaps
Newc 3.55 - None were male or beaten as far as he was
Newc 3.55 - NCHIKE looks unimpressive statistically
Newc 3.55 - YORK KEY BAR isnt for me
Newc 3.55 - Not from a 5f race with his preparation
Newc 3.55 - OFF HAND looks the wrong type
Newc 3.55 - I see her having problems on the ground
Newc 3.55 - I would only see one of two horses backable
Newc 3.55 - BLUE NOODLES - DENTON DIVA

Newmkt 4.05 - TRYST really ought to win this 7f handicap
Newmkt 4.05 - I was uncomfortable with HUSTKE
Newmkt 4.05 - Looked at recent 7f winners like him
Newmkt 4.05 - Those like him aged 4 were 0-16
Newmkt 4.05 - Those like him with penalties were 0-10
Newmkt 4.05 - I looked at older horses aged 6 or more
Newmkt 4.05 - Looked when they lost by 10 + lengths last time
Newmkt 4.05 - The record was 0-57 in 124 similar races
Newmkt 4.05 - GIGANTICUS fails that
Newmkt 4.05 - I looked at all handicaps at all trips in May
Newmkt 4.05 - 6yo + losing by 10 + lengths last time were 2-122
Newmkt 4.05 - Without 5 + runs that year they were 0-106
Newmkt 4.05 - GIGANTICUS fails that
Newmkt 4.05 - BARONS SPY didnt appeal aged 8 from 6f
Newmkt 4.05 - He is also on a career high mark
Newmkt 4.05 - Binanti - Countdown look vulnerable
Newmkt 4.05 - GOLDEN DESERT has a long absence to overcome
Newmkt 4.05 - ROARING FORTE also has one and I dislike him
Newmkt 4.05 - He comes from a 3yo only handicap
Newmkt 4.05 - In 124 other races horses doing that were 1-61
Newmkt 4.05 - TRYST has the outstanding profile
Newmkt 4.05 - Well bred-owned-trained
Newmkt 4.05 - TRYST should improve past these

Newc 4.30 - I didnt like horses with 3 runs
Newc 4.30 - Mark of Meydan - Business Class are out
Newc 4.30 - Dream Express has a bad draw in my view
Newc 4.30 - Kalhan Sands - Musca look opposable
Newc 4.30 - I would seek an alternative to these

Nmkt 4.40 - Rangemaster is in a powerful yard so respect him
Nmkt 4.40 - 1 run this year up from 10f though doesnt catch eye
Nmkt 4.40 - Horses doing that running within 2 weeks were 0-34
Nmkt 4.40 - RANGEMASTER comes with risk
Nmkt 4.40 - Dont fancy LOCHIEL - RELATIVE STRENGTH
Nmkt 4.40 - Wouldnt have picked JOHN TERRY-WAR PARTY
Nmkt 4.40 - Martyr -Sgt Schultz -King Olav came out best

Nmkt 5.15 - I wouldnt have selected Indian Skipper down in trip
Nmkt 5.15 - Bahiano looks opposable aged 8 with an absence
Nmkt 5.15 - Grand Vizier has a horrible draw and absence
Nmkt 5.15 - Sonny Parkin cant be considered with his absence
Nmkt 5.15 - I would be against those few runners

Brighton 5.25 - I would oppose the following
Brighton 5.25 - Charlie Delta- Caustic Wit - Jonny Ebeneezer
Brighton 5.25 - RADIATOR ROONEY has a strong profile
Brighton 5.25 - He has a poor record on Grass though
Brighton 5.25 - On the plus side he has been well supported
Brighton 5.25 - YOUNG IVANHOE comes from a seller
Brighton 5.25 - All 38 horses doing that lost
Brighton 5.25 - WHAT DO YOU KNOW is out from 8f
Brighton 5.25 - No problems with any others
Brighton 5.25 - Possibly Sherjawy if supported
Brighton 5.25 - Otherwise Radiator Rooney

Nmkt 5.50 - Amateur Riders race and Fitness matters
Nmkt 5.50 - Sir Boss wouldnt interest me first time out
Nmkt 5.50 - 8f last time is an issue as is his inexperience
Nmkt 5.50 - Cragganmore Creek wouldnt interest me
Nmkt 5.50 - Stormy Summer -Neboisha are wrong types
Nmkt 5.50 - I cant have Wester Lodge from 14f to 10f
Nmkt 5.50 - KING COLUMBO is a positive
Nmkt 5.50 - So to is his stablemate Bavarica
Nmkt 5.50 - No real problems with the rest

Haydock 6.20 -Apprentice race and fitness important
Haydock 6.20 - I would oppose all the following
Haydock 6.20 -Town House -Tartatartufata -Tenancy
Haydock 6.20 - Ingleby Star -Weet A Surprise
Haydock 6.20 - Horses with 1 run this year are not great
Haydock 6.20 - They were best when running within a week
Haydock 6.20 - Blazing Heights ought to need another run
Haydock 6.20 -Top Bid doesnt appeal with 1 run and absence
Haydock 6.20 - I dont see GUTO as the winner
Haydock 6.20 - I wouldnt bet a horse above
Haydock 6.20 - COMPTONSPIRIT has his best form on faster ground
Haydock 6.20 - I would see the following as having good chances
Haydock 6.20 - King of Swords - Imperial Sword- Andrasta
Haydock 6.20 - The History Man - Sofinella
Haydock 6.20 - SOFINELLA isnt out of this at all
Haydock 6.20 - King Of Swords - Imperial Sword are also strong

Haydock 6.50 - BAILEYS VISION would be my choice
Haydock 6.50 - If odds against she's an each way double

Pont 7.00 - Calling Victory - Playful Asset are negatives
Pont 7.00 - Dont like their age - and no winners had 3 runs
Pont 7.00 - Location doesnt appeal but she is the best 3yo profile
Pont 7.00 - SHEKAN STAR is respected
Pont 7.00 - She only has 1 run this year though and aged 7
Pont 7.00 - WOGAN´S SISTER only has 1 run this year
Pont 7.00 - Many are hard to rate but I like the Topweight
Pont 7.00 - BLACK DAHLIA Could well be the one

I have looked at BLACK DAHLIA and am convinced she
has enough class to win a 0-68 handicap when she is right.
Good seasonal debut. Her second run this year was a drop
in trip which didnt suit. Last time she was beaten 10 lengths
but she led the field in a early crawl and was done by speedier
horses. Today rated 70 and having placed off 73 before - She
only faces a 0-68 class field to beat and BLACK DAHLIA is
good enough to win in that class. She is the best age for this
race. Look at the Pontefract renewals of this race and you see
horses with 9st 11lbs or more as she has with a 5-17 record
in this race. 4 year olds with high weights have a great record
in this race. Its one of two scenarios for me. BLACK DAHLIA
will either be fancied and gambled and will win. Or she will be
fancied for another race somewhere else and she will not run
her race. I do like her chance though.

Haydock 7.20 - KHEYLIDE may be too exposed to win from 5f
Haydock 7.20 - INGLEBY LADY would be my other negative
Haydock 7.20 - Not strong stats but little niggles I dont like

Pont 7.30 - I felt Little Perisher was exposed to come from 5f
Pont 7.30 - I would rather oppose with some other horse
Pont 7.30 - Be Invincible would be my best guess in the race

Haydock 8.20 - I wouldnt have selected Proud Times

Pont 8.30 - Island Vista does not appeal
Pont 8.30 - There is some weakness in Caerlaveock as well

Haydock 8.50 - OPEN SESAME has a harder task than it looks
Haydock 8.50 - His Draw's bad and horses with 2 runs were poor

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