Forums: Mathematician 3335

Mathematician 3335

Title

Mathematician 3335

Message

Mathematician 3335

Sunday Sept 22nd

3 Previews
0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet

No Staked Bet

Today's Message

Just two meetings today
Badly needed an Irish meeting
Without that very limited choice

Hamilton 2.00
Plumpton 3.15
Plumpton 3.45

Plumpton has small fields
Getting a heavy soaking as well
So there could be carnage there

Hamilton is low grade monotony
Not going to get a lot right there

Going to take today very easy
No point forcing it on a bad day

No Day off this week
This is message 5 in a row
Going right through to next week

There was no chance of a bet
This is a confidence repairing
And mind clearing message

Just 3 previews

All 3 are very complicated to stake

Hamilton 2.00

There are 2 Irish raiders
Both coming with good excuses
In some big Irish handicaps
Will not be surprise if either win
Not an easy race to stake right

Best Bet

Going with a Handicap Chase

3.15 Plumpton

£4 Each Way VELVET COGNAC 13/2

£2 Win Bet STAGE ONE 7/1

Guessing between the pair
Both are from the same stable

Lawney Hill has a 5-8 record in this race
Targets it over the years
Feel her runners will be primed

Saturday's Summary

There is no fool like an old fool
Referring to me and not a horse
Went for a bet on a 9yo sprinter
English ran to his age and failed
Would not have mattered much
Any alternative would have lost
Just a miserable lousy Saturday
The Ayr Gold Cup winner at 28/1
Did pass my ideal profile angles
Just failed on the draw statistics
Would not have picked him first
We lost Gowran Park to the rain
Got almost nothing from the rest
No excuses just some contrition
On what was an embarrassing day

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Hamilton 2.00

7/2 Autumn Flight, 9/2 Fox Hill, 6/1 Kaafy
13/2 Anythingyouwantobe, 13/2 Fugacious
10/1 Double Martini, 12/1 Inner Charm,
12/1 Twentysixthstreet, 14/1 Josiebond
20/1 Spotton, 40/1 Laoise.

3yo Handicap 6f

KAAFY interested me last time
See him as a very well treated horse
Who will probably win very soon
I expected that to be over 5f though
Have my doubts he stays 6f on turf
His draw is also a major problem

Hamilton 6f races
Since 2016
Horses drawn 11 or higher
Have a 0-51 record since then

Hamilton 6f races
Since 2012
Horses aged 2-3-4
Drawn 11 or higher
Have a 0-57 record since then

KAAFY fails these stats drawn 12
LAOISE fails this and is underraced

Rightly or wrongly
I'd want more than 3 career starts
They don't score that well in them
And this track is far from the easiest
DOUBLE MARTINI has topweight
With 3 career starts he is wrong
SPOTTON is a low scorer
INNER CHARM is a filly with 4 runs
Down from 8f to 6f she is not safe

JOSIEBOND is a filly absent 44 days
Fillies with 8 or more starts
Absent more than 21 days
Have a 0-49 record in these races
JOSIEBOND with 12 runs fails this
TWENTYSIXTHSTREET is unsafe
Hammered 31 lengths over 9f last time
Hard to risk dropping 3f in distance

Shortlist

FOX HILL
ANYTHINGYOUWANTOBE
FUGACIOUS
AUTUMN FLIGHT

FOX HILL won a 5f race last time
She has now proved her stamina
No reason why she should not win

ANYTHINGYOUWANTOBE has 7 runs
Interesting aspects about his chance
His last 2 runs were in Ireland
In massive fields against older horses
Both races he had horrible draws
Drawn 29 of 29 at the Curragh hurt him
Drawn 22 of 22 at Navan damaged him
He has numbers that can win this

FUGACIOUS has a chance
Despite coming from a 5f race
Had an excuse last time down from 8f
He has had bad draws before that too

AUTUMN FLIGHT won last time
Beating older horses in a handicap
The best last time out numbers
Fillies like her winning last time
With more than 7 career starts
Have a 0-12 record in these races

Selection

Option 1

£6.00 Win Bet ANYTHINGYOUWANTOBE 8/1

£2.50 Win Bet AUTUMN FLIGHT 3/1

£1.50 Win Bet FUGACIOUS 5/1

Option 1

£4 Each Way ANYTHINGYOUWANTOBE 8/1

£2 Win Bet FUGACIOUS 5/1

Plumpton 3.15

3/1 Gold Mountain, 5/1 Silver Man
6/1 Alexander The Grey, 6/1 High Hatton
7/1 Stage One, 7/1 Velvet Cognac
8/1 Chill In The Wood, 14/1 Mr Satco.

Handicap Chase 3m 1f

No firm conclusion can be drawn
Past winners of many shapes and sizes
Some lightly raced others far from it

ALEXANDER THE GREY is weak
Could not select him from a 2m race
Stepping up over a mile in distance
MR SATCO is not offering much now
CHILL IN THE WOOD is a 10yo mare
She has 298 days off to cope with
Recent winners all ran within 109 days
SILVER MAN is a 12yo with topweight
Has not been running at his best
The above horses lack positives

Possibly the best profile in this

Horses aged 7-8-9
Running within 109 days
Coming from Class 4-5-6
Coming from 2m 5f or more

STAGE ONE is the best fit
Not sure if he will get the distance
But the closest match to winners

His trainer is interesting
Lawney Hill has a 5-8 record in this race

VELVET COGNAC from the same stable
Becomes more interesting with that record

VELVET COGNAC may be 11
But he is not very exposed
Did not start racing until he was 6
He is sexier and a more likely stayer

We can only guess
But staying with both from this stable

Selection

£4 Each Way VELVET COGNAC 13/2

£2 Win Bet STAGE ONE 13/2

Plumpton 3.45

5/4 Local Affair, 4/1 Catch The Cuban
5/1 Pola Chance, 7/1 Hummdinger, 10/1 Brambledown
10/1 Highway To Success, 20/1 Limelighter
66/1 Night Closure.

3yo Hurdle

Messy low grade affair

LOCAL AFFAIR is 7/4 favourite
Yet she is only a filly
Limited to just 2 career starts
And has a recent run as well

January to October
3yo hurdle races
Run over any distance

Fillies
Coming from a Hurdle
Under 5 lifetime starts
Running within 24 days
Return a 0-32 record in them

She may win
But a mix of inexperience
And a recent run is often a problem

BRAMBLEDOWN is not safe either
Not coming from a 7f flat race
HUMMDINGER has 1 hurdle run
Flopped in that and has to be risky

Shortlist

CATCH THE CUBAN has a chance
Respected from a strong stable
But he has no hurdles form
Unclear what to expect after 111 days off

HIGHWAY TO SUCCESS may go well
Has raced just once in a year though
But has an engine from the flat

POLAR CHANCE is a filly
She only has 3 lifetime starts
Better profile than Local Affair
As she has more time off the track
But not sure you want a filly with 3 runs
She was favourite in a handicap last time

Selection

Small Stakes

£6 Win Bet POLAR CHANCE 6/1

£2 Win Bet HIGHWAY TO SUCCESS 5/1

£2 Win Bet CATCH THE CUBAN 5/1

Future Betting Angles

Ante Post

Saturday 28th September

Newmarket 3.40

Cambridgeshire

90 Horses left in the race

Monday there is an entry stage
There will be some withdrawn

At this stage
Only 54 horses
Have a chance of getting in the race

Applied most of my angles
Only had a gentle look so far

Some of the fancied horses
That should face some problems

FOREST OF DEAN may not run
Has it all to prove off a very high mark
SETTING SAIL has a similar problem
LORD NORTH 10/1 only has 4 career runs
He would be the least experienced winner
STAR OF BENGAL is not a good fit
As a 3yo coming from a Group race
FIFTH POSITION has the same problem

Not done much in the race
Will pick it up later next week
The horses in the race right now
That I am keeping on the shortlist

Le Don de Vie 14/1
Desert Icon 16/1
Good Birthday 16/1
Mordin 16/1
Numerian 16/1
Caradoc 20/1
Rise Hall 20/1
Seniority 20/1
Baltic Baron 25/1
Bedouin's Story 25/1
Nkosikazi 25/1
Solid Stone 25/1
Hortzadar 33/1
Johnny Drama 33/1
Motawaj 33/1

In the Ayr Gold Cup
I gave a statistic that showed
Really experienced horses struggle

The same applies to this race
Will probably add extra angles as I go

But these are worth considering

Cambridgeshire since 2001

Horses with 27 + runs are 0-132

Horses with 24 + runs are 1-164
Those absent over 2 days are 0-161

Horses with 22 + runs
Absent more than 2 weeks are 0-121

Horses with 18 + runs
Aged 3 are 0-4
Aged 4 are 0-77
Aged 7 + are 0-61

Last time out winners
With over 10 career starts
Have a 0-50 record in the race

When the entries are through
We can look deeper into the race

Rugby World Cup

New Zealand 11/8 England 4/1 South Africa 4/1
Ireland 10/1 Wales 10/1 Australia 16/1
France 25/1 Argentina 40/1 Scotland 80/1
Fiji 250/1 Japan 250/1 Georgia 500/1
Italy 500/1 Samoa 500/1 Canada 1000/1
Namibia 1000/1 Russia 1000/1 Tonga 1000/1
USA 1000/1 Uruguay 1000/1

The only suggested bet
Covered in a previous message

Name the finalists

£8.50 Win New Zealand + South Africa 11/4
£1.50 Win New Zealand + England 6/1

New Zealand 23-13 South Africa

Both teams met yesterday
Their opening group stage match
No great surprise with the score

Now this pair have played each other
They can not meet untill the final

There is another way to play this

Betfair Prices

Staking £100

£43 New Zealand at 2.34 returns £101.48

£17 South Africa at 5.7 returns £102.60

Stakes are £60
Returns are approximately £100

So we are getting 4/6 to our money
Does not sound a great payout
But it is not a bad bet even at 4/6

If both teams get there
Then you have won your £40 profit
Regardless of who wins the final

And if one of these fails
And only 1 of them get to the final
No matter who they are facing there
They will be a lot shorter than 4/6
They will possibly be as short as 2/7

Could also Split stake the bet

£4 Win Bet New Zealand 11/8
£6 Win Bet South Africa 9/2

Don't know much about it
Don't intend to watch any of it
But the best sides usually win
One of the most reliable sports
For favourites winning each game

*********************************************************
*********************************************************

Rating

0/5 based on 0 votes.

Ownership

Maths

Views

24 views. Averaging 0 views per day.