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Mathematician 372

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Mathematician 372

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Sunday May 24th

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Fontwell 3.00

RUSTIC JOHN 5/1

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There will be a message tomorrow. We end what has been a
very quiet week with one selection in RUSTIC JOHN who
has been Point To Pointing and runs in a Selling Handicap.

I dont know much about Point to Pointing. I dont know too
much about RUSTIC JOHN either. There is a bit of a leap of
faith with this horse. I am assuming that a horse like him that
has just won 3 Point To Points in a row the last at Larkhill by
20 lengths beating an odds on favourite will be more than good
enough to win a Selling Handicap Chase off a ridiculous mark
of only 64. When the race involved strongly favours the lighter
weights like him and many of his rivals have shown no aptitude
yet for chasing he could well blow these away. I feel he is one
of those horses that could either win this very easily or just not
be the right type for such a race. I have either unearthed a gem
or taken a calculated risk on a horse who isnt the right sort for
such a race. It's very hard to know which he is but he has a big
chance in an awful race and 5/1 looks generous. The horse I am
most scared of is the 25/1 chance HUCK FINN and for the sake
of a round of drinks I have saved on him myself. There is more
than a leap of faith betting a Point To Pointer who hasnt run
under rules in almost a year but on a queit Sunday he was the
best risk I could find and think he is worth a bet

RUSTIC JOHN is 11/2 Blue Sq-888Sport
RUSTIC JOHN 5/1 Betfred -Boyles -Sportingbet-Skybet
RUSTIC JOHN 9/2 Stan James -Bet365

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G

No selections yesterday. Looking back I did the right thing.
Had I gone with Internationaldebut I would have been sick.
He may have finished in 5th place but he was hampered and
stopped more than once and I think he would have won the
race had he got the breaks. He had that race at his mercy but
just didnt get any luck in running. I Feel the message was a
reasonable one. Nailed the big 3 races with 2 winners and a
second and others should also have won that were unlucky
but we also got plenty wrong as well. Never like missing a
Saturday without a bet but I have been cold and it made sense.

Just one Preview today at FONTWELL in a selling handicap
chase that I like the look of. Not playing at Newmarket but
as its the only flat card I will do a quick paragraph or two.

N E W M A R K E T

Going to leave Newmarket alone today. Most races there ask
questions that cant be answered. No point guessing there so I
dont really see the sense in long previews that will end up with
ambiguous conclusions. The first race was complicated and It
has hidden traps. If I had done a preview my first point of call
would have been to oppose Great View as a 10yo with one run
this season. No horse aged 9 or more won a handicap at this time
of year around this trip with just one run that year and he would
be the negative I would build from if doing that race. However it
wasnt a race I felt I could sort so leaving it alone. The Maiden at
2.55 is also not a race I felt I could do. I would be looking to an
unraced winner. The favourite Mijas Playa has 3 runs. There
has been 97 maidens on Grade 1 tracks like Newmarket in the
last 15 years in May and June. None of the 97 winners had ran
3-4-5-6 times before as Mijas Playa has. Good horses are often
introduced on good tracks and if a Filly like Mijas Playa hasnt
won yet after 3 runs then there has to be a limitation to her true
ability and thats usually exploited by decent unraced horses on
Grade 1 tracks and thats why I think one of the unraced horses
will win this race. It would be a guess as to which would win
though so I cant call it but I would oppose Mijas Playa.

The 4.05 handicap is lethal. If you take the runners one by one
and put their profiles through all similar class sprints like this
one at this time of year you find the margins are so tight and
there is no room for error. Not enough horses like Jimmy Styles
or Striking Spirit won having had 1 run that year and I would
argue both were unimpressive statistically. I couldnt find any
winners like Thebes. Everymanforhimself wasnt brilliant as an
exposed horse up in trip. I wouldnt be able to make any of them
negatives but they all had flaws. I was neutral about Musaalem
and found him unrateable. Abraham Lincoln and Mac Gille Eoin
would be shortlistable but the race didnt look straight forward
and margins were too tight. No real way of knowing what sort
of ability you have in the maiden at 4.40. The market suggests
Eaton Square will prove too good for these but he is odds on
and without being able to rate his opposition the race looks a
contest to watch. The Handicap at 5.15 looks nasty and not a
race I am confident in as you dont know what to do with the
once raced Fillies Ingleby Lady or Romanticize as no similar
race had horses trying to win with just one race in handicaps
like this. Personally I wouldnt want Ingleby Lady with one
run and a 7 week break. Given that Romanticize has ran just
once I'd look elsewhere as well. I found Daddy's Gift was too
exposed for comfort. Dove Mews - Calahonda - Cashleen left
me cold with 1 run this year and well beaten in that run and
with a months absence. If I had to commit to profiles I can
live with I would argue Metroland and White Shift had the
strongest profiles in the race. The last race is far too difficult.

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N A T I O N A L H U N T

The race I want to play in is at Fontwell in the Selling Handicap
Chase at 3pm. Before then just a few brief words about the 1st
race at Uttoxeter. I always keep a close eye on Mares Novice
hurdles just in case a horse to oppose lurks in them. I dont feel
we have any obvious negatives in todays mares Novice Hurdle
race but given all the profiles JE NE SAIS PLUS looked the most
interesting. If you look at every one of these races in May and
June and look for Last time outwinners like JE NE SAIS PLUS
you find an 8-14 record and the full record of these horses is this -
W F W 2 W F W W 2 2 W 2 W W. JE NE SAIS PLUS would be
my choice but I dont commit to these races unless I can kick a
fancied horse out through some poor trends and I cant do that.

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FONTWELL 3.00

HORSECARE CELEBRATING PAM TETLEY'S 60TH BIRTHDAY
SELLING HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 5) (5yo+,0-90) 2m2f

9/4 Glengarra, 5/2 Maclean, 5/1 Wondersobright, 6/1 Rustic John,
8/1 Keyneema, 20/1 Sebber Bridge, 20/1 Whenallelsefails, 25/1
Coast To Coast, 33/1 Huck Finn, 33/1 Long Road.

* This is a selling handicap chase over 2m 2f
* There has been 13 renewals of this race

Fontwell have 13 renewals of this selling handicap
and its the only similar races at this time of year.
I think this may be a race for Lightweights as the
following record from the 13 renewals suggest

* Horses with 11st 3lbs + are 1-50
* Horses with 11st 2lbs or less 12-87

That strongly suggests a lightweight bias. Probably as
these horses are so poor none are good enough to give
lumps of weight away. GLENGARRA has topweight
of 11st 12lbs. That wont be easy and whilst he wins
the odd time in this grade only 1 past winner of this
came from a 2n handicap chase and he was a former
graded horse that ran a lot better than GLENGARRA
did and I dont see any reason to fear him with such a
big weight and conceeding 26lbs to some of these I'd
oppose him. MACLEAN has less weight but still has
11st 4lbs and more than the ideal range. He's had just
three runs since a 836 day lay off and I suspect he is
trying to get fit with each run and show he can retain
his ability. He has only won one of his 23 races over
hurdles and fences and has hardly set high standards.
MACLEAN should be able to win off his mark but
he may not be at his very best and with high weights
struggling in this race his best may not be good enough
to give weight to so many lightweights in this race.

WONDERSOBRIGHT has not jumped a fence in 3
years and wasnt jumping them with any confidence
when last seen. He also has a high weight and hasn't
been running that well and on ground he doesn't like
I think he has to be opposed. I have to oppose the
other high weight KEYNEEMA. He is not running
well at the moment. He has only had 2 Chase starts
in his career and both those were heavy defeats and
he looks vulnerable. SEBBER BRIDGE leaves me
cold. She is a Mare with just one run in Months and
that was a heavy defeat and she drops back a Mile in
distance today. She has only had 3 chase starts and
looks one to avoid. WHENALLELSEFAILS has only
had 1 run over fences and that was a horrible one. He
looks too inexperienced and doesnt make any appeal.
COAST TO COAST doesnt look the horse he once
was and hasnt run over fences in years.

I dont have a problem statistically with huge priced
outsider HUCK FINN. If you look at all horses from
handicap chases over 2m 4f or more when they had
10st 10lbs or less you find that in the 13 renewals
there was a 4-18 record. All four winners were well
beaten last time as HUCK FINN was. Statistically
he is fine but he got reminders last time before the
first fence of the race which does put me off and he
is out of the weights. I think He is vulnerable and
probably wont win but a huge price and I wouldn't
put anyone off a couple of quid on him at 25/1

SELECTION

RUSTIC JOHN

This horse hasnt run under rules for 346 days. I do not
worry about that. The 2004 winner had a long absence.
The 2007 winner (Ah Yeah) had not run in 14 months
before winning this and like RUSTIC JOHN he'd been
Point To Pointing. What you have is a chance to bet a
horse off 10st in a 0-90 Selling Handicap having been
showing signs of ability in Point To Points. Its hard to
know how good some of these Point To Point horses
are but RUSTIC JOHN has won his last 3 races and
won at Larkhill last time beating an odds on favourite
by 20 lengths. He is clearly reasonably usefull to win
his last 3 Points and he only has a mark of 64 in this
Selling Chase. Back in 2007 when far less experienced
RUSTIC JOHN was 4th in this race with more weight
than today. His trainer John Manners has had more
winners at Fontwell than any other course. He doesnt
have to race from out of the weights. Surely in such a
weak race RUSTIC JOHN has to be considered as a
decent bet at good odds.

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