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Mathematician 371

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Mathematician 371

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Saturday May 23rd

No Account Bet

No Selections

Dissapointing for a Saturday to have no bets but thats the way
I want to play it today and we have a Sunday Message where
things may be clearer. Interesting message today but its tough.

I normally start a Saturday message with the big races and I have
done that today. I dont know if it shows a lack of confidence at
the moment but all 3 races conclude that the favourites in those
races should win. I will ignore these three main races and see if
they are as straight forward as they seem to be. Haydock and
Newmarket have horrible supporting cards and I'm beaten there
and dont see anything I want to bet. If we can strike anywhere
it will be Catterick and Beverley. I didnt want to go down the
short priced route or the each way double route today. Equally
I dont want to target races that are too ambitious either.

I hate myself for even contemplating it by my angles again draw
me into Internationaldebut at Beverley but I can't bring myself
to stake him as a bet even at 10/1. I will be fascinated to see if
he can win that race but I dont think its a race I can be confident
enough to stake him in. If I was suggesting how to cherry pick
the message I would suggest you follow me in the 2.30 and 3pm
at Catterick. The 3.20 and 5.30 at Beverley.

Having a Selection Free day. I think the cards and my current
form suggest thats wise. Its baking sunshine today and the
ground will dry out and that will make it a lot easier from now.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G

Yesterday we went with a selection and saver with the main
bet on AUSSIE BLUE and he ran poorly. I had assumed he
might make the running last night. I was wrong to assume it
and he was held up at the back losing all advantage from the
low draw. The first 3 home were all low draws as I thought
they should have been but rather than AUSSIE BLUE in a
lead and trying to hold on we were faced with two hold up
horses who never looked like winning. Certainly no signs
there of a renassiance in form but it will happen soon.

SATURDAY

I have Previewed the Coral Sprint (3.25) at Newmarket and
the Silver Bowl (3.40) at Haydock as they are Big Handicaps
on the day and I know a few people like delving into them.
I havent previewed the Irish 2000 Guineas but had I done so
I would have gone with MASTERCRAFTSMAN. That takes
care of the main 3 races on the day.

Much of todays racing looks too tough. I start the message
with the two main handicaps. After that its just a quick look
at a few things I like on the day. I havent planned for or got
a blockbuster. Trying to Manage myself into some form at
the moment and quite happy to accept many races will beat
me today and I want to stay with races I feel confident in.

NEWMARKET 3.25

CORAL.CO.UK SPRINT (HERITAGE HANDICAP)
(CLASS 2) (3yo,0-105) 6f

5/1 Bouvardia, 5/1 Proclaim, 11/2 Dark Lane, 8/1 Calligrapher
8/1 Global City, 11/1 Timeteam, 12/1 Able Master, 12/1 Parisian
Pyramid, 16/1 Aldermoor, 25/1 Bajan Tryst, 25/1 Rowayton
33/1 Raggle Taggle, 33/1 Shaws Diamond, 40/1 Akhenaten.

* This is a 0-96 handicap over 6f for 3 year olds
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* None of the last 17 winners were seasonal debutants
* CALLIGRAPHER has that to overcome
* He has 3 runs and only 1 past winner was as inexperienced
* CALLIGRAPHER isnt for me
* ROWAYTON is also a seasonal debutant
* She is a filly and Fillies scored badly in this race
* Since 1994 in the last 15 renewals Fillies are 0-64
* RAGGLE TAGGLE is a filly and I dont like her chance
* I dont like her Draw in stall 1
* Since 2007 there were 17 handicaps here with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 had a 1-45 record in the 17 races
* RAGGLE TAGGLE is also a filly from a 5f race
* SHAWS DIAMOND is also a filly
* She looks weak with a 77 day absence
* She also drops in trip and no filly did that
* BOUVARDIA is a filly
* She would be the most likely filly to win
* AKHENATEN makes no appeal from 8f
* Only 1 past winner came from 7f never mind 8f
* He looks too exposed to overcome that
* Horses that came from 5f races were poor (2-75)
* All 35 that tried lost since 1995
* BAJAN TRYST fails that and was hammered last time
* PARISIAN PYRAMID comes from a 5f race
* No horse doing that was as exposed as he is
* None doing it had ran as often as he has this year
* ALDERMOOR also comes from a 5f race
* Horses that ran over 5f within 2 weeks were 0-30
* ALDERMOOR fails that
* He also comes from a 5f conditions race and none did that
* Horses that ran in handicaps within a month won 8 races
* Those beaten 4 + lengths in those races were 1-84
* The following horses fail that
* BAJAN TRYST -PARISIAN PYRAMID -AKHENATEN
* I looked at horses with 7 or more runs
* We had 5 past winners with 7 or more runs
* Those that had Listed-Group form before were 1-62
* ABLE MASTER fails that and looks the wrong type
* There hasnt been a past winner that had the same profile
* TIMETEAM doesnt look well drawn in stall 2
* I also think he is too exposed
* In the 17 renewals horses with 13 + runs were 0-24
* TIMETEAM has 14 and I expect others to improve past him
* GLOBAL CITY has 1 run that year
* As he is lightly raced thats forgivable
* He has past Group race form and only 3 past winners had that
* None had 1 run that year and none had his absence
* GLOBAL CITY is respected but he isnt typical of any past winner

SHORTLIST

PROCLAIM
DARK LANE

* DARK LANE has just one run this year
* I see that as a small disadvantage but he is lightly raced
* That improves his chance but none ran within 2 weeks
* I couldnt rule him out
* PROCLAIM has a strong profile
* I cant fault him in any way

SELECTION

PROCLAIM

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HAYDOCK 3.40

BETFRED SILVER BOWL (HERITAGE HANDICAP)
(CLASS 2) (3yo) 1m30y

9/4 Desert Creek, 7/1 Fareer, 7/1 Foundation Room,
7/1 Set The Trend, 10/1 Good Again, 10/1 Thief Of Time,
12/1 Sonning Gate, 20/1 Viva Ronaldo, 25/1 Deadly Secret
25/1 Derbaas, 25/1 Isabella Grey, Markyg, 33/1 Roman Glory
40/1 Canwinn, 40/1 Cruikadyke.

SELECTION- DESERT CREEK

The Silver Bowl gets better each year and improves its
quality and is now a serious handicap to win. You want
a lightly raced male horse thats in form. This has never
gone to horses with many runs. In the 21 year history
we have only had 1 winner with 9 or more runs and it
is a race where winners have been quite predictable in
the past. Over half the field are 40/1 and over and that
will help a lot in a race that few should be able to win.

There looks a strong favourite in DESERT CREEK from
a powerful stable. With just three 3 runs and one run this
year DESERT CREEK mirrors many past winners of this.
You only have to look at last years winner (Staying On)
who won the same Windsor handicap last time out that
DESERT CREEK won this year and he also had just 3
career starts. DESERT CREEK won that same handicap
yet runs here off a 6lbs lower mark and has 12lbs less
weight than last years winner did. That makes him look
very well treated in this race and having won on soft he
should be given the benefit of the doubt with the heavy
ground. DESERT CREEK is statistically stronger than
FAREER as he is less exposed. FAREER comes from
a Chester handicap that doesnt have a great record in
this race. All 22 horses that came from that Chester race
lost when trying to take this race. I would much rather
have the unexposed DESERT CREEK getting weight.

I didnt want SET THE TREND as his absence put me
off and I question him on the ground. No past winner
that had ran that year as SET THE TREND has done
had an absence of over a month and given the ground
it may be too much for him today. THIEF OF TIME
has been busy this year and I cant find a past winner
with his profile. GOOD AGAIN is a filly and only 2
fillies won this none with similar profiles and you can
say the same about FOUNDATION ROOM who also
comes from the same Chester Handicap as Fareer that
we know hasnt been a good trial race. There are few
others you can consider. SONNING GATE was behind
DESERT CREEK at Windsor by some margin and has
more runs so you have to question whether he has the
same improvement. Much as I did not want to end up
with a shorter priced horse I've come to the conclusion
DESERT CREEK has the best profile.

SELECTION- DESERT CREEK

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H A Y D O C K & N E W M A R K E T

Very little History at Haydock and a Lethal meeting that I
am very keen to skip. The Temple Stakes has switched so
many times from different tracks that I wouldnt trust any
trends in the race. Personally I couldnt find many winners
with 1 run that season and what few there were were both
unexposed and young so BORDERLESCOTT doesnt do it
for me. I wouldnt have picked CAPTAIN GERARD as no
past winner dropped in trip with 1 run this year. The same
can be said for TOTAL GALLERY who wasnt like the past
3yo winners. I dont see REVERENCE winning. WI DUD
and RIEVAULX WORLD look beatable. LOOK BUSY is
arguably the horse that offers the most statistically but as
Tax Free doesnt run I wouldnt underestimate the 3 year old
TOTAL GALLERY despite being untypical of past winners.

The 4.15 handicap is again too hard. I would only offer a
negative for Celtic Lynn and Brasingaman Hifive. Nevada
Desert wont win. If I was having a guess then NISAAL is
my best guess. Playing with a few trends I looked at 200
similar races at this time of year. I looked for Male 4 year
olds with 7-12 runs that had never won before and that
came from 8f handicaps with 1-2 runs this year. The ones
with that identical profile that also had under 9st weight
like NISAAL had a 5-11 record. Thats no more than just
a guess after a 5 minute play. The race looks beyond me.

You can argue ALANBROOKE should have won last
time out and he looks like he may win the 4.50pm race
but there are a lot of unexposed threats and the rewards
are not there with so many big stables against him.

Newmaket doesnt interest me at all. Aside from the Coral
Sprint its small field messy tactical races all the way. If I
had to nudge you towards one horse at Newmarket today
it would be FATHER TIME in the 2.20pm.

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C A T T E R I C K

The Selling race at 2.30 looks nasty. Statistically the problem
is these races are very rare. There has only been 5 selling races
in May over 11f - 13f in the last 15 years so we are partially
blind to what it takes to win a race like this. Throw in some
really confusing profiles and much more strength in depth that
you normally see in these races and it looks hard. I would be
against the horses with absences such as EVELITH REGENT
MAYADEEN and SAGUNT. Several here look more than
good enough to win a race like this. My best guess would be
TERMINATE around 7/1 as he comes here from winning a
handicap. He has a recent run. He will appreciate the drying
ground and brings form and fitness into the race. Its an open
contest though and stakes would need to be low

I would have to go with DIAMOND BLADE in the maiden
at 3pm but have a saver on CAVITIE in the race. His main
market rival (Fashion Icon) is a filly that couldnt place in a
seller last time. You then have Positivity who was beaten 33
lengths just 8 days ago and surely thats too far a defeat to
overcome too soon for a filly like her who hasnt proved she
has trained on. Fifth Amendment was also hammered on his
debut this year. I dont understand why DIAMOND BLADE
isnt odds on. He looks a big price to me around 5/4 and 11/8.
He may be one of those where if he starts evens or shorter he
will win but if he drifts to a price like 7/4 that he shouldnt be
then you would be quite worried. All things being equal I feel
DIAMOND BLADE looks like he only has to run his race to
win. CAVITIE could be the saver. Upgraded stables recently.
Well backed at 20/1 and 25/1. He is experienced like most of
the past winners of this race were. He drops from 6f which
looks a sensible mood. After the market move I watched him
on video and I can see why some are taking fancy prices and
he could well be the biggest threat to the favourite.

I gave up on the 3.35 handicap as the angles were not there.
I wouldnt have gone with TURN ME ON taking on better
class horses.I wouldnt have gone with LADY RANGALI
as a filly first time out as no similar filly won a similar race.
I wasnt keen on SUNRISE SAFARI either exposed and up
in distance. MALCHEEL isnt for me either. I couldnt see
any more half decent negatives and didnt feel I have enough
to take a strong view about the race.

VHUJON looks the best option in the 4.10 race with a 2 day
break having won on Thursday. He brings form and fitness
into the race. I wasnt convnced GRAZEON GOLD BLEND
or DIG DEEP did enough on their seasonal debuts. I dont
know whether WYATT EARP will have reached his peak
fitness either with just two runs this year for an 8 year old.
EL DECECY comes down from 10f to 6f and that looks a
horrible task. I didnt fancy MR WOLF as horses aged 8 or
more that had under 3 runs that year had a 3-155 record and
those that ran within 2 weeks were 1-80 and none lost by as
far as he did last time. With KASHIMIN absent 287 days
and JOHANNES also lacking a run I would have to go with
VHUJON. I respect BONNIE PRINCE BLUE but he has
just 1 run this year and VHUJON will be race fitter and I
see VHUJON as having the best chance. He may well be a
horse to consider in an each way double.

WINGED HARRIET looks a banker in the 6f Maiden and
whilst she is odds on I couldnt see her losing that race. The
last race at 5.15pm is a mess.

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B E V E R L E Y

The 2.15 race is about whether COTSWOLDS who has ran
just twice before can improve past some decent handicappers
in this 0-80 handicap. There are about 7 potential winners. I
didnt want DANEHILLSUNDANCE with 1 run this year
and a 78 day absence. MESBAAH is out with a radical drop
in trip. The likes of Phluke - Paraguay - Jonny Lesters Hair
and Daaweitza all have sound form claims and will provide
the sternest test to COTSWOLDS. The issue is whether we
can expect COTSWOLDS to beat these solid horses. I have
looked at all similat 7f handicaps in may and looked at the
record of horses like COTSWOLDS that won a maiden race
after just two career starts. There were only 2 horses that
had profiles like that and Both horses won their 7f handicap
so that 2-2 record puts me in COTSWOLDS camp and He
looks the most likely winner to me.

The Maiden at 2.45 is basically a Guessers race. Its not a
strong race. The market will have far more to say than I am
able to. I know RIO CARIBE isnt well drawn but horses in
all 2yo maidens like him that were 2nd within the last week
had a 11-21 record (52%) and it will be interesting to see if
he can improve that record. Its wide open though and we do
not have the evidence we need in the race.

BEVERLEY 3.20

BRANTINGHAM CONDITIONS STAKES (C2) (3yo+) 5f

3/1 Judd Street, 7/2 Advanced, 4/1 Fullandby, 6/1 Judge 'n Jury,
8/1 Peace Offering, 10/1 Internationaldebut, 16/1 Damika, 16/1
Excusez Moi, 25/1 Haajes, Spirit Of Sharjah, 33/1 Go Go Green,
66/1 First Order.

SELECTION - INTERNATIONALDEBUT

The Conditions race at 3.20 has a long 16 year history. It's
a matter of which you can or cant bet. Personally I dont see
GO GO GREEN or FIRST ORDER winning. I couldnt have
EXCUSEZ MOI at 5f as neither he nor his sire have any 5f
form and he didnt do enough last time out. Horses that are
coming into this race from handicaps as EXCUSEZ MOI
does are interesting. When these "Handicappers" failed to
finish 1st or 2nd last time in that handicap they had a 0-35
record. EXCUSEZ MOI fails that. FULLANDBY also fails
that and has to drop in trip. Another horse that was beaten
in a handicap last time was JUDGE 'N' JURY and he has a
lower draw to overcome as well. SPIRIT OF SHARJAH
and HAAJES are also "Beaten handicappers" and dont offer
me reasons to bet them in this race. DAMIKA doesnt appeal
as a seasonal debutant drawn one. You have to wonder if a
horse aged 9 like PEACE OFFERING will be fit enough to
win a race like this. PEACE OFFERING is 9 yet has just 1
run this season and a 34 day break and I dont know if you
can rely on him to be at his fittest today. I feel the same
about JUDD STREET as well. He is a 7 year old and has
been absent 45 days. In recent years all his wins came after
absences of 13-7-12-6 days and thats a question mark for a
horse. Earlier I made the point that horses that come from
handicaps that finished 3rd or worse last time were 0-35.

If you look at horses that finished 1st or 2nd in a handicap
last time out its a different matter entirely. These horses
had a brilliant 5-7 record. The Full record of these horses
is W W 2 W W 6 W and it includes the 2005 2007 2008
winners of this race. This record points to two horses as
having great claims of winning this race. These are -

INTERNATIONALDEBUT - ADVANCED

ADVANCED has only 1past run at this 5f trip and that was
on very soft ground. If you take the 16 renewals of this race
and look at all horses from handicaps that were exposed as
he is you find a 0-27 record. None of the "Handicappers"
were aged 6 or more either as he is and he just doesnt fit the
exact profile that I am looking for.

INTERNATIONALDEBUT looks the one. I have to hold
my hands up here. Hardly "Tipstering" at the top of my
game at the moment and INTERNATIONALDEBUT has
a lady rider - a modest draw - and is a horse that has already
brought be misery this year. I have tipped him this season
and watched him run poorly and when he won at York last
week I didnt fancy him at all. I have got him wrong all year
and I have no idea what makes him tick as he is clearly a
complicated horse. That said he has the outstanding profile
of all the runners in this race and despite all his quirks and
his complications I feel he has to be my selection in a very
interesting race. INTERNATIONALDEBUT for me at 9/1

SELECTION - INTERNATIONALDEBUT

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BEVERLEY 5.00

MARATHON STAYERS HANDICAP
(CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-75) 2m35y

7/2 Aleron, 9/2 Pagan Starprincess, 6/1 Herrera, 7/1 Snowberry Hill,
7/1 Solas Alainn, 8/1 Mister Arjay, 10/1 Moonshine Beach, 12/1 Jackday,
12/1 Toboggan Lady, 16/1 Admiral.

SELECTION - PAGAN STARPRINCESS

The 2m Stayers Handicap at 5pm has a manageble field but it is
sill quite open. I didnt see ADMIRAL or TOBOGGAN LADY
as achieveing enough last time. SOLAS ALAINN doesnt appeal
to me as he comes from a 12f handicap last time out and almost
all past winners of this race didnt do that. MISTER ARJAY is
another horse doing this and as a 9 year old I felt it was asking
too much. HERRERA doesnt appeal as a filly doing the same
thing. I couldnt bet MOONSHINE BEACH as an 11 year old
absent 252 days. SNOWBERRY HILL has been absent 46 days
and has no backclass to draw back on. JACKDAY is not for me
as the youngest horse with the longest absence. The only horses
I liked were ALERON and PAGAN STARPRINCESS. I feel
its impossible to Judge ALERON as an 11 year old who comes
here having just won a Handicap Chase last week. He is well
treated but just how to rate him is beyond me. I would have
been happier if PAGAN STARPRINCESS has ran better
last time but that was her Fibresand debut at Southwell and
she may not have liked it. Forgive her that and you have a
Mare who is running off a mark of 56 yet is rated 126 over
hurdles 70lbs more than her flat mark. That makes her well
handicapped. She looked a stayer when winning off 52 on
the Flat in 2007. She then went Hurdling and improved out
of recognition winning a Grade 2 hurdle amongst her other
wins over jumps. Now she is back on the flat and allowed
to race from just a mark of 56 and I see her as thrown in off
56 and the best handicapped horse in the race. She wasnt
able to take advantage at Southwell last time. I would give
her one more chance back on Grass to exploit her mark

SELECTION - PAGAN STARPRINCESS

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BEVERLEY 5.30

WHITE ROSE SADDLERY CELEBRATING 25 YEARS
LADY AMATEUR RIDERS' HANDICAP (CLASS 5)
(4yo+,0-70) 1m1f207y

9/2 Amazing King, 11/2 Diamond Lass, 11/2 Gala Sunday,
6/1 General Tufto, 6/1 Proficiency, 13/2 Street Devil, 8/1
Keisha Kayleigh, 14/1 Kirstys Lad, 20/1 Coronado's Gold,
20/1 Hurricane Thomas, 20/1 Ming Vase, 33/1 Scotty's Future.

This is a Lady Amateur Riders Handicap. In May and June
we have had just 19 of these races since 1993. Thats not a
great number but these are unique races. You want a Fitter
horse. If you take the 19 similar races and look at horses
with under 2 runs that season you find a 0-95 record. It is
a race where fitness matters as the Amateur jockeys are so
much weaker than professionals and dont have the strength
to shake up unfit horses and get the maximum out of them.
That 0-95 record puts me off SCOTTY´S FUTURE. It also
puts me off AMAZING KING despite being well treated.
It suggests HURRICANE THOMAS should be opposed.
It also puts me off PROFICIENCY who is also a Filly who
has just 4 career runs. In the 19 handicaps no females won
without at least 9 runs and 3 that season. I dont see why
CORONADO´S GOLD should win down from 2 miles.
GALA SUNDAY hasnt been running well enough this year
and must be very risky. DIAMOND LASS is a 4yo filly
with just 5 runs and we know no filly won with under 9
runs and she was badly beaten last time. I dont want to
risk KIRSTYS LAD as all his form is on sand and he is a
long way out of the handicap. GENERAL TUFTO has
just been hammered over 12f last week and has all his
form on Sand. He is 0-16 on Grass and has just one 3rd
place to his name from 16 runs and I am worried that its
asking rather a lot to bounce back from another poor turf
run just a week ago much as trip and ground are better.

I'm shortlisting 3 horses

STREET DEVIL
MING VASE
KEISHA KAYLEIGH

KEISHA KAYLEIGH is a female horse from a claimer
and that leaves me a bit cold but it was a very hot race
she ran in for a claimer and she ran to form and has the
benefit of a recent run. We have had a past winner of
this race coming from a claimer. Interestingly 4 of the 5
winners of this race ran within a week as she does and I
felt she had a lot to reccomend her. STREET DEVIL is
also in with a chance much as he is lightly raced and has
to come from the sand . MING VASE is also respected
as fit and having a recent run.

SELECTION

KEISHA KAYLEIGH - Win Bet
MING VASE - Place Bet

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