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Mathematician 369

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Mathematician 369

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Thursday May 21st

No Account Bet

No Selections

Just as important as winning money in the Good runs
is not losing money in the barren runs and thats why
I am having another No Bet day. Multiple reasons. I
am not selecting the correct races to preview. My shot
selection is poor at the moment. Since the rain came
down last week I havent fired. I think we are in a short
period of frustratingly hard races to look at. I have no
option but to have another blank day. I havent nailed
it today. I never fool myself into thinking I have got
more than I have and the day is best written off as a
day thats not been managed well enough for a bet. I
have 5 long previews in 5 tough handicaps and if I
get winners today it will be down to plenty of luck
and this is not a good enough message to be betting
hard earned money on. This week last year we had
the same thing and worse. Struggled with my timing
and my form all week in this week in 2008. Had many
losing bets. We came back with a 10/1 Account Bet
winner on Saturday and hit form with avengance after
that so I am not at all worried and know things can
be like that. Lessons of the past tell us Buckle up and
keep your hands in your pockets when I have nothing
good enough to bet and I feel that way today.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G

Since the Rain came down at the end of last week I
havent been firing and have struggled to find anything
good enough. Its been a tricky and testing few days
and I am not doing the business at the moment. It is
just a matter of trying to let this period past without
doing any major damage at all. It wont be too soon
when we get faster ground back and get rid of this
turbulent period where I have been underperforming.

There are Five previews today all in Handicaps and
I think my shot selection is off track as I seem to be
going with the wrong races at the moment and I am
not sure I have the right ones today either.

GOODWOOD 2.50

O'SULLEVANS CAFE STAKES (HANDICAP)
(CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-80) 7f

7/1 Folly Lodge, 7/1 Mister Ross, 7/1 Woodcote Place, 8/1
Oh So Saucy, 10/1 Buxton, 10/1 Councellor, 10/1 Gazboolou,
10/1 Lekita, 12/1 Idle Power, 12/1 Kirk Michael, 12/1 Salient,
14/1 Koraleva Tectona, 16/1 Compton's Eleven, Choreography,
25/1 Ivory Lace, 25/1 Support Fund.

* This is a 7f Handicap for 0-80 rated horses
* May and June have seen 362 similar races
* CHOREOGRAPHY has to go from a 5f race
* Female horses racing first time out have poor records
* Females absent 7 months or more are 0-49 since 1993
* OH SO SAUCY fails that and is rejected
* SUPPORT FUND is also rejected as a mare first time out
* IDLE POWER has to go as a 11yo seasonal debutant
* No 4yo filly won frist time out
* LEKITA fails that and also come from a 6f race
* No filly came from a 6f race unless running within a month
* Fillies with one run this season struggled
* They won just 4 of the 362 races
* None of the ones that did won absent over a month
* KORALEVA TECTONA fails that and looks vulnerable
* FOLLY LODGE is a filly with 1 run that season
* Fillies doing that with 7 + runs had a 2-110 record
* Those with 7-20 runs as she has were 0-74
* Those like FOLLY LODGE that placed last time were 0-26
* Those aged 4 like FOLLY LODGE were 0-61
* FOLLY LODGE looks opposable in my view
* KIRK MICHAEL has 1 run this year and a months break
* Those like him with under 9 runs doing that won 4 of the 362 races
* Only 1 came from 7f or shorter and none were 5 year olds
* KIRK MICHAEL is "unimpressive" statistically
* My gut feeling is he needs another race
* IVORY LACE is an 8yo Mare and not for me
* BUXTON is exposed and has just 2 runs this year
* He also comes up from a 6f race
* Throw in a 24 day break and he isnt for me
* The following horses are fine statistically

Woodcote Place - Salient - Gazboolou
Compton's Eleven -Mister Ross -Councellor

* GAZBOOLOU is well drawn and ok statistically
* He hasnt run here before so will he handle the track
* I dont see him as the best option
* WOODCOTE PLACE has a good chance
* I cant find a similar horse that won this race before
* He also looks hard to win with
* I feel he is shortlistable but not a selection
* COUNCELLOR won this last year with 3lbs less
* His chance is harder this year with a bigger field
* Well drawn though there is nothing wrong with his profile
* COMPTON´S ELEVEN ran well last time at Warwick
* He was just behind SALIENT in the same race
* Both these horses are strong statistically
* COMPTON´S ELEVEN is hard to win with
* He will have to do this the hard way from the back
* As an 8yo he comes with risk
* SALIENT looks promising but two factors worry me
* He doesnt have a great draw in stall 3
* He may be being aimed at the 8f race he won here last year
* Thats a race next week and it could be his main target

SELECTION

COUNCELLOR with a saver on Mister Ross

MISTER ROSS looks well handicapped still
and ran a good debut race this season at Ascot
when factors transpired against him. I would
prefer to bet him as a saver. COUNCELLOR
is my preference as he has built up a lot more
fitness than many of these and is drawn well.
I find that hard to ignore.

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HAYDOCK 3.35

PLAY PREMIER 10 AT FOOTBALLPOOLS.COM STAKES
(HANDICAP) (CLASS 3) (4yo+,0-90) 1m30y

4/1 Cara's Request, 11/2 Visions Of Johanna, 7/1 Billy Dane,
7/1 Ilie Nastase, 14/1 Angel Rock, 14/1 Rattan, Shaloo Diamond,
25/1 Mr Hichens, Raptor, 33/1 Quiet Elegance.

This is a Mile Handicap for 0-92 rated horses. Haydock
have had 16 past renewals of this race and there has been
148 similar races elsewhere. Several of these are either
weak or unproven and statistically its a bit messy. I will
start with some negatives. I am against horses with just 1
run this season when dropping down in trip as all 61 to
try lost so ANGEL ROCK - SHALOO DIAMOND are
my first negatives. RAPTOR and RATTAN are out as
they have poor absence breaks and dont look ready to be
competetive in a race like this. QUIET ELEGANCE has
to go coming from 6f and a Listed race. There are no clear
negatives after these.

NEUTRAL PROFILES

ILIE NASTASE is not easily judged and I would be neutral
about him. The Chester race he comes from is a poor trial
race for this but thats not good enough evidence to oppose
him and he does look like he can win from his current mark.
I cant find a horse like CARA'S REQUEST who came from
a maiden last season so he has to be a "neutral" as well. I cant
make him one of my negatives as not enough have tried and
failed but none of the 148 similar races went to a horse like
him. MR HITCHENS is fine statistically but he just doesnt
look well handicapped at the moment.

VISIONS OF JOHANNA has to be considered as several lightly
raced types like him won similar races. My gut feeling with him
is that he may not be thrown in from his mark and I dont want to
risk him as in this Haydock race the record of debutants was poor.

STRONG PROFILES

BILLY DANE comes from the same Beverley Handicap as 4
recent winners of this race and the last two winners I would
have to give him the verdict

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HAYDOCK 5.20

BLACKPOOL TOWER & CIRCUS HANDICAP
(CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-75) 1m2f95y

5/1 Benedict Spirit, 5/1 Fujin Dancer, 13/2 North Parade, 8/1
Hippolytus, 8/1 Mustajed, 10/1 Animator, 12/1 All In The Red,
12/1 Supercast, 14/1 Uncle Bertie, 16/1 Man Of Gwent, 16/1
Vicious Warrior, 20/1 Baizically, 20/1 Princess Rainbow, 20/1
Scamperdale, 25/1 Kalasam, 33/1 Paint The Town.

* This is a 10f handicap for 0-74 rated horses
* Since 1996 there has been 226 similar races

I couldnt bet PRINCESS RAINBOW as an inexperienced filly
with 1 run this year. PAINT THE TOWN has an awful profile
for a filly with a long absence. BAIZICALLY didnt do enough
last time having been well beaten on his first run this year. So
to was HIPPOLYTUS and as he has to also take a 3f step up
in distance he makes no appeal.

I dont want ANIMATOR after his first run of the year and he
doesnt look an obvious winner. You would also be worried that
he has downgraded stables recently and on more than one run
last year showed some temprement.UNCLE BERTIE looks a
bit too inexperienced for me especially with question marks
over his he will handle ground with some cut in it.

MAN OF GWENT has a long absence and all wins on sand
and I dont see him winning. In the 226 races only 1 horse aged
8 or more won with more than 7 weeks absence. I want to be
against MUSTAJED aged 8 absent 105 days. He is a horse
that could be being laid out for a race at York on May 30th
and I see this as a prep race and he ought to need it. I have to
oppose VICIOUS WARRIOR aged 10 absent 198 days and
he surely wont be fit enough. Without any meaningul grass
form SCAMPERDALE has to go. He has only a handful on
turf runs and has never placed yet on Grass. As he is a also
7 year old with a tricky absence he has to go. I'm shortlisting
6 horses

Benedict Spirit -Fujin Dancer - North Parade,
Supercast - All In The Red -Kalasam

I will try and get these half dozen shortlisted down to a more
managable number. SUPERCAST has a strong profile but he
doesnt look well handicapped and with an inexperienced jockey
he isnt for me. Nicky Vaughan is on record as saying he feels
the horse will struggle today with Topweight and I suspect
the claimer is booked as he hasnt won from this mark before.
NORTH PARADE is hard to win with and you dont see many
4 year olds with old Group class form win these races. He may
lack a turn of foot when it matters but statistically he is fine.

One of the big problems BENEDICT SPIRIT has may be the
draw as I feel you want a high draw and he is stuck in Stall 1
which hasnt won a handicap here in years. FUJIN DANCER
looked a progressive type over hurdles this winter and ran well
last time at Beverley back on the flat when just behind runner up
BENEDICT SPIRIT and it will be close between this pair today

SELECTIONS

KALASAM
ALL IN THE RED

KALASAM did enough last time to suggest
he will soon be winning and his stable have
won this race before. ALL IN THE RED ran
an excellent 7th last time at York. That was over
a distance he didnt look to stay and wasnt bred
to stay and he didnt have any luck in running
either. It was a much better race than this and
down in class and distance I like his chance

SELECTION - KALASAM

SAVER - ALL IN THE RED

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SANDOWN 6.20

PANMURE GORDON CORPORATE FINANCE
HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo,0-85) 1m6f

7/2 Darley Sun, 7/2 King Of Wands, 4/1 Lively Fling, 6/1 Kimberley
Downs, 7/1 Penang Princess, 10/1 Cry For The Moon, 12/1 El Bravo,
16/1 Atabaas Allure, Admirable Duque, 25/1 Excelsior Academy.

* This is a 14f handicap for 3 year olds
* Sandown has had 5 renewals of this race
* May and June have seen 96 similar races
* ATABAAS ALLURE should be opposed
* She is a Filly with just 1 run this season
* Since 1992 Fillies with 1 run this year were 0-42
* Coming from a 10f race I would also be worried
* I looked at 96 races for fillies from 10f or shorter
* None had 5 or more runs as she does
* ATABAAS ALLURE looks opposable
* ADMIRABLE DUQUE has to go
* He was hammered just 5 days ago
* EL BRAVO looks exposed to me
* No horse that won this race had 7 + runs as he does
* In 96 races I looked at all horses with 7 + runs
* Those that came from 11f or shorter were 1-49
* EL BRAVO looks a bit too experienced to me
* EXCELSIOR ACADEMY also has 7 runs
* In 96 races I looked at all horses with 7 + runs
* Only 1 of these had under 3 runs that season
* EXCELSIOR ACADEMY is not for me

NEUTRAL PROFILES

* LIVELY FLING comes from a 3yo handicap over 12f
* I looked at all Male horses that did that
* None had 3 runs but only two tried
* He has to be a horse I am neutral about
* None of the 96 winners had an identical profile
* Not enough tried to make him a negative
* PENANG PRINCESS has a reasonably chance
* No filly like her won this race
* It would worry me as she is one of two fillies
* CRY FOR THE MOON has a chance in this
* He has to prove he can stay 14f though
* His sire has not had a winner at 14f yet

STRONG PROFILES

KING OF WANDS - KIMBERLEY DOWNS - DARLEY SUN

* KIMBERLEY DOWNS has a strong profile
* DARLEY SUN won the last 14f handicap for 3 year olds
* That was at Nottingham 13 days ago
* He won that quite impressively but there are concerns
* He came late and the race looked tactical
* He may have won a very tactical race last time
* Most front runners were not getting home that day
* DARLEY SUN can win if that race reflected his ability
* There is a chance he was flattered though
* KING OF WANDS has a nice profile
* His trainer John Dunlop excels in these races
* I like maiden winners last time out and they score well
* KING OF WANDS looks best to me

SELECTION - KING OF WANDS

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SANDOWN 8.35

PANMURE GORDON STOCKBROKING
FILLIES' HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo+,0-80) 1m1f

8/13 Leocorno, 8/1 Dakiyah, 8/1 Lyra's Daemon,
10/1 Bookiebasher Babe, 10/1 Lady Brora, 16/1 Binfield,
16/1 Maybe I Will, 33/1 Hip Hip Hooray, 33/1 Uig.

The issue in this fillies handicap is whether LEOCORNO
will outclass her rivals. Entered in the Oaks and the trials
she missed those with a setback. Michael Stoute has put
her in a handicap on her comeback run. She is probably
thrown in off 78 much as she not going to be at her best
today. Statistically LEOCORNO does have a lot to prove

* May and June have seen 161 Fillies Handicaps
* Thats 161 races over 8f-9f-10f in these two months
* Horses from 2yo maidens are 0-30
* Horses with 1 career run were 0-5

Basically LEOCORNO has to come from a 2yo maiden
when none of the 161 winners did that and win with one
run something no horse did either. It would be foolish to
make her a negative but there may be some hope for you
if you oppose her. Looking at the opposition. I didnt see
MAYBE I WILL or BINFIELD as backable as they didnt
achieve enough last time. UIG wont be ready. I cant find
a winner like LYRA´S DAEMON in the 161 similar races
and I was worried about DAKIYAH coming down in trip
after just 1 run this year. BOOKIEBASHER BABE has
to transfer sand form to turf. HIP HIP HOORAY may
just lack the class. I think LADY BRORA will offer the
strongest challenge to the favourite. She was second last
time behind BOOKIEBASHER BABE but on this track
and its uphil finish I see LADY BRORA reversing that
form and I think LADY BRORA is best placed to be the
biggest threat to the favourite. Whether she can win this
and take advantage of favourite that looks thrown in yet
not without problems is a hard call to make. I would go
down the "Place only" or "Without the favourite" market.

Selection

LADY BRORA Place only

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