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Mathematician 354

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Mathematician 354

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Sunday May 3rd

No Account Bet

Hamilton 5.20

RUBENSTAR 16/1

Each Way Bet

Quieter day today. After a very brief Newmarket
introduction the message is simply a 2 preview
mail with 2 very interesting Hamilton races. I did
have a good think about whether to have a bet in
the 2.25 at Hamilton. I could have gone either two
ways on the race and I think I have a good strategy
in the race that should not lose money but in the
end I just felt I wasnt able to use that strategy as
a selection so I will leave it as a mention.

My bet today is a 20/1 chance RUBENSTAR. This
horse would prefer 7f but at his price he is a great
bet for me considering the last few furlongs are
uphill and I see him coming very late staying on
fast and given some of his rivals have weakness
and look hard to fancy this horse may surprise a
few and show he can win at 6f. I'm hoping he stays
on late to at least place and he may well have the
class to come through and win. Its a shame we
dont have 4 places except on Betfair but even with
15 runners he could win this.

Bank Holiday Tomorrow. No idea how the message
will shape up. I am not deliberately planning either
a long or short one. I am going to just see where it
goes and cover just things I see relevant. I very much
doubt it will be a huge message but we will have to see.

Rubenstar is 20/1 with BlueSq-Skybet -888sport -Paddy P
Rubenstar is 18/1 with Totesport
Rubenstar is 16/1 with Hills -Stan J -VC -Betfred-Bet365 -Ladbrokes

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G

Good day yesterday and a nice profit. We got
off to a good start as KAY GEE BE placed at
a big price. Without droning on about it I got
the race as right as I needed to and it was a
lovely bet that could have been spectacular
had the horse done that bit better. The race
preview was class. The race preview I did
for PADDY BEAR though was horrific or at
least the result made it look that was. What
happened with him I dont know but it was a
race I want to forget and I am lucky it was a
loser sandwiched between winners. The
good thing was that he didnt spoil a good
day as EDAS hacked up easily at Hexham
making it a very good day.

I've rightly taken some stick lately about some
slipping standards. Phone line issues. Mails
are always problematic much as thats not my
fault. What is my fault is the spelling errors and
general mistakes in the messages like wrong
times and ambiguous conclusions. I'm Going
through a really bad spell with this. It isnt a lack
of concentration or care. Its just a reflection of
being rushed and doing too many races so I
need to calm down a bit. If you look at all the
messages in April -May in 2008 you will see
several that only previewed just one race and
overall I covered far fewer races last year and
the year before. This year I have done more
Previews than ever before and that is when
mistakes do crop in. It's not affected results
at all. We are going well and having winners
but the number of these mistakes is getting
larger so I may throw in shorter messages.

Today there are just two races that I want to
Preview. Wil just make a few comments at
Newmarket as its the Guineas but there is
nothing much there are I dont see a race I
want to concentrate on at Salisbury. This is
a 2 preview-day both races at Hamilton.

N E W M A R K E T

I am going to Skip Newmarket today. Will have
a couple of words about the card but in truth it
is far too difficult and I dont have good enough
angles to open it up today. I better look at the
1000 Guineas. I dont consider this race a good
stats race like the 2000 Guineas. I think trends
in this race are Bland and Ten a Penny.

I was amazed when Fantasia won earlier in the
year and they said she was heading to France
and that RAINBOW VIEW was representing her
owner. I'd definately have backed Fantasia if she
was running. RAINBOW VIEW should win if they
think shes better than Fantasis. I dont like the
fact she is a small horse but she's said to have
grown. I think there are mixed messages about
her homework. I havent a clue what to expect for
her today. Just looking at what I could not bet.

Personally SERIOUS ATTITUDE doesn't stand
out to me. I cant find a past winner of this race
that came from a 6f race when not having at
least 4 previous races. I need more before I
bet a small stable horse in a classic so she's
out. LAHALEEB doesnt interest me as I dont
bet horses that win trial races on Soft or Heavy
as history shows they leave a lot behind and
get beaten here baring absolute superstars
like Dancing Brave. I'm against AGAIN on the
draw and GHANAATI as the least experienced
runner and I wont bet a horse who was beaten
in a trial recently like HEART SHAPED. I dont
know much about CUIS GHAIRE or SHIMAH
who might be the owners second string. I dont
see a horse I want besides RAINBOW VIEW so
I'm really boxed in thinking she'll probably win.

The only other race I could make a strong case
for doing is the Pretty Polly Stakes at 5pm. Its
a race for Lightly raced horses. Statistically the
horses with 3 or more runs generally get beat
and those that come from 7f or shorter have an
awful record something SNOQUALMIE GIRL
and PACHATTACK do. No past winner came
via a maiden with 3 runs like NATURAL FLAIR.
THREE MOONS HORSES is too exposed. I'd
respect TAKE THE HINT but horses from 2yo
maidens when having 2 or more runs are 0-10
in this race. The best profile by far belongs to
GOLDEN STREAM who has the same profile
as the 2002 winner. GOLDEN STREAM for me.

Overall though the Newmarket card strikes a
lot of fear into me and I dont see compelling
angles so I will give it a miss today.

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HAMILTON 2.25

HAMILTON PARK SUPER SIX CLAIMING STAKES
(CLASS 5) (4-6yo) 6f5y

11/4 Makshoof, 3/1 Dream Theme, 3/1 Stonecrabstomorrow,
6/1 Secret Dubai, 6/1 Silvanus, 20/1 Andrasta, 20/1 Nacho Libre,
33/1 Distant Vision, 66/1 Lifetime Endeavour, 66/1 She's Our Dream.

This is a 6f Claiming race. There has only been one
renewal of this race. We have had 39 similar races
at this time of year. There are 10 runners today and
we can confidently rule out the 4 outsiders who look
to have little chance today. NACHO LIBRE is added
to the list of negatives. He has just one run this year
and that was in a 5f race where he had a heavy loss
finishing last. He looks a horse to avoid at the moment.
MAKSHOOF comes out as the second best horse at
the weights but he is a seasonal debutant and I am
taking him on. If you look at the 39 Claiming races at
this time of year seasonal debutants were 0-75. That
has to be a worry facing several fit horses. In fact just
1 of the 39 winners were absent 7 weeks or more in
a 1-125 record. You dont want a first time out horse
in these races so MAKSHOOF is rejected. I dont see
SECRET DUBAI as the one. Four year olds like him
are far better with a very recent run. Those like him
that didnt run within 2 weeks struggled and of those
that came from 6f or shorter they had just a 1-58
record. Of all the fancied runners here he also has a
harder task at the weights. He would be getting at
least 3lbs and as much as 15lbs more weight in a
handicap from all of his rivals here that are fancied.
I think he is badly weighted and this doesnt look to
be a race where conditions suit him. This looks to
be a 3 horse races to me

Silvanus - Stonecrabstomorrow - Dream Theme

DREAM THEME is a warm 2/1 favourite and best in
at the weights. He's ran 11 times for Dandy Nicholls
without a win but he has dropped 22lbs in ratings
and brings backclass to this race. Interesting that
his connections have not tried to exploit his rating
in a handicap. To put him in a seller shows that it
is a horse with problems. Statistically he is great
and I dont have a problem with him. On ratings he
should win but thats assuming he is as good as
his rating and I am not sure he is anymore. Last
time out he was rated 25lbs better than Haroldini
and met him on level weights and couldnt beat
him in a Southwell seller when they were 2nd and
3rd to Cap St Jean who DREAM THEME should
also have comfortably beaten at the weights. He
missed the break but not by much and that didnt
hurt him much. He will have needed the run as
well but thats still a run that was a long way below
his rating. I definately give him a chance and see
him probably placed in this race but he doesnt
come without his doubts.

SILVANUS has a fine chance and looks good for at
least a place. Horses like him that come from 5f all
aged handicaps with recent runs have an excellent
4-15 record and he comes from the same Ripon
race that the only winner of this Hamilton race ran in
before he won this Claiming race. He has good form
in decent handicaps and has every chance of winning
this race at a value price.

STONECRABSTOMORROW is fine statistically as
well. He doesnt have quite the backclass of Dream
Theme but he is reliable and running to a level of
form thats good enough to win this type of race. He
has to go close in this race.

SELECTION

Win Bet on STONECRABSTOMORROW

Place Bet on SILVANUS

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HAMILTON 5.20

RACING UK HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 6f5y

9/2 Buy On The Red, 11/2 Splash The Cash, 8/1 Imperial Sword,
8/1 Johnston's Glory, 10/1 The Bear, 10/1 Woodsley House, 12/1
Conjecture, 12/1 Guest Connections, 12/1 Music Box Express,
12/1 Thunder Bay, Rubenstar, 20/1 Virtuality, 25/1 King Kenny,
25/1 Royal Acclamation, 33/1 Musca.

* This is a 6f Handicap for 0-70 rated horses
* Hamilton have had 17 similar races in May
* There has been 129 of these races at all tracks
* MUSCA has to go with a 294 day absence
* No horse has even won a 6f handicap here with 7 months off
* KING KENNY has a bad draw in stall 16
* Its been years since a horse won here from that draw
* He isnt running well to win this anyway
* GUEST CONNECTIONS also has a poor draw
* I didnt think he had done enough lately
* He is exposed and comes from a 5f race
* I looked at 129 similar races for these horses
* The odd one won but none lost by as far as he did
* I dont see him as the winner of this race
* ROYAL ACCLAMATION hasnt been running well enough
* Looking now at horses that ran once this year
* There were 15 of the 129 winners doing this
* The ones you need to avoid are those from 5f
* Horses with 1 run this year from a 5f race were 1-130
* Thats an awful record including several fancied horses
* 12 beaten favourites and 20 losers 2nd or 3rd favourites
* THUNDER BAY fails that and is rejected
* JOHNSTON'S GLORY is a mare with 1 run this year
* Mares that had 1 run that season were 1-76
* Thats not a great record and would worry me
* She is also on a career high mark
* She also lacks the Cheekpieces that helped her
* She may win but she doesnt appeal to me
* I dont like exposed horses with 1 run this year
* There were 8 winners like this in 129 races
* Those that were 1-2-3-4-5 last time out were 0-47
* WOODSLEY HOUSE fails that
* CONJECTURE fails that as well
* When they were aged 7 or more they were 1-79
* WOODSLEY HOUSE - CONJECTURE also fail that
* When running within 2 weeks these horses are 1-84
* When having 9st or less they are 0-74
* CONJECTURE fails that and doesnt appeal to me
* He doesnt have the best of draws either.
* CONJECTURE is opposed today
* WOODSLEY HOUSE is also opposed on these trends
* Last on his seasonal debut doesnt look good
* He is also on a career high mark
* There were 14 Fillies winning in 129 races
* Only 1 won at Hamilton though in a 1-44 record
* In 129 races No filly had under 9 career starts
* These types had a 0-60 record
* VIRTUALITY Fails that with just 6 runs
* VIRTUALITY also comes from a maiden
* No filly did that in the 129 races
* We have 703 handicaps in May between 5f and 8f
* Fillies that came from maidens had a 1-83 record
* That filly won her maiden with 5 runs that year
* She was also far more experienced
* VIRTUALITY has 1 run this year and lost that maiden
* VIRTUALITY looks easy to oppose in this rac
* THE BEAR won this race last year at 16/1
* That was on soft ground and with 8ist 8lbs
* He is 5lbs higher this year and has faster ground
* It was also for a different trainer last year
* THE BEAR has had 3 seperate trainers in his last 3 runs
* It would worry me he has his first run for a new stable
* It would worry me he also comes from a 5f race
* Since 2001 there has been 69 of these races
* 9 of the 69 winners came from a 5f race
* Those with under 3 runs that year were 0-95
* I think THE BEAR has a much harder task this year
* THE BEAR is opposed today
* IMPERIAL SWORD also comes from a 5f race
* We know since 2001 9 winners did that
* We know with under 2 runs this year they were 0-95
* We know IMPERIAL SWORD fails that statistic
* In 129 races horses that won a 5f race last time struggled
* All 20 that did it Lost in the 129 races at 6f
* IMPERIAL SWORD is an exposed horse from 5f
* I dont like that and in 18 Hamilton races they were 1-33
* I cant make him a big negative but he isnt for me

S H O R T L I S T

BUY ON THE RED
SPLASH THE CASE
MUSIC BOX EXPRESS
RUBENSTAR

* SPLASH THE CASE comes from a seller
* Horses from selling races were 0-16
* I am ignoring that as a blip as some won at 5f and 7f
* He does have a 32 day absence though
* He has to drop in trip and his riders lost 2lbs or her claim
* He could have been better drawn as well
* He also lacks significant backclass
* I am shortlisting him but he is not without doubts
* Several tiny little things niggle me about him
* MUSIC BOX EXPRESS is interesting
* This is a front runner that could well lead
* He loves it out front and on fast ground
* He ran well last time at Warwick when badly drawn
* He might have gone off too fast that day from a bad draw
* You can ignore his previous run as he had no chance
* On his profile I see him as extremely backable
* His big worry is the 6f trip on a stiff track
* He has never won or placed at 6f on a stiff track
* He will be very vulnerable inside the last furlong
* That does put me off him today
* BUY ON THE RED has a likeable profile
* He is well handicapped and likes a big field
* He comes from a 7f handicap which is fine
* As an 8 year old he badly needed his first run this year
* Last time out he was 2nd in a much better handicap
* The 6th and 7th have both come out and won
* There are two things that worry me about him
* One is his market weakness when a D. Nicholls runner
* The other is that he is 8 years old with 2 runs this year
* I looked at all horses aged 8 or more in 129 races
* With 1-2 runs this season they were 0-73
* With 2 runs as he has they were 0-28
* Bearing in mind his class profile I do still like him
* I would prefer that he had ran at least once more though

* RUBENSTAR has a very strong profile
* Statistically I cant fault him at all
* 3 runs ago he was given a bad ride and should have won
* He then won next time out again over 7f
* He ran well again last time over 7f
* He finished with a lot in hand last time out
* He could easily have placed in given a hard race
* The only issue about this horse is the trip
* Does he have the speed to win at 6 furlongs
* This is a stiff track which will be a serious help
* RUBENSTAR will be coming home fast and late
* He won over 6f as a juvenilebut hasnt run at 6f since
* It is a concern but he travels very well
* He has twice won at Lingfield over a sharp 7f
* There is a stiff 2f climb to the finish line today
* That will help him a lot as he comes late
* Had this been 7f I would be very confident
* Given he is 20/1 and more he is more than worth a bet
* He should be staying on late and could well win this

SELECTION

RUBENSTAR Each Way 20/1

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