What Goes On In Here?
Posted Mar 10, 2017 - 03:01 AM:
The Mathematician-Betting forums are private forums for members of the Mathematician-Betting.co.uk service.
As a non member you will see nothing unfortunately.
Inside however is a busy active forum where members discuss racing and sports betting, providing both daily thoughts and advice and long term betting strategy thinking.
It is a great place to ask questions and to raise your general knowledge of betting.
The forums are a complimentary add on for memebrs of our Private Service.
To join our private service now under our No Quibble Refund Guarantee click here .. Join
Below is a copy of an historic message as a typical sample of what members receive in their email from us each betting day. As you can see research effort and reasoning is expansive and far beyong a simple name of horse only tip.
9 previews 7 are in Class 2 or higher The message has graduated to classier races Expansive Previews in better quality races today 1 Bet chosen from 2 strangely similar options
Today's Bet
Chelmsford 6.10
CURBYOURENTHUSIASM 5/2
Win Bet
I have changed the bet in the last half hour And gone for a win bet which is not as safe as I planned
My best bet today is Curbyourenthusiam But i wanted to bet him each way But I have no control over the market Evening race on the Sand he could be any price
So I nearly went with my second choice bet Wincanton 2.10 - NORTH HILL HARVEY 11/4 Each Way I spent half an hour chewing over this decision
These bets are spookily similar Both are 11/4 and each way bets Both are in races with just 6 runners
I nearly went with this bet
Wincanton 2.10 -NORTH HILL HARVEY 11/4 Chelmsford 6.10 -CURBYOURENTHUSIASM 5/2
£3 Win Bet on Each Horse £2 Each Way Double on both
In the end I went for simplicity I have gone with a Win Bet
I could have chosen a safer route But lets just go for the win bet
Sunday
There will be a Sunday message There is a lot of very small fields though I will do something in the Cork National I will also cover the USA Presidential Election I have novelty bets at 4/1 and 8/1 Predicting the Correct Score in this election
T o d a y s M e s s a g e
The 2 easiest races today start the message My choices are 5/4 and 7/4 These are solid enough but not maximums Then we do battle in 7 much harder races
There were just 2 possible bets
Wincanton 2.10 Chelmsford 6.10
Aintree 2.05
£4 Each Way KRUZHLININ 8/1 £2 Win Bet ENNISTOWN 4/1 £2 Win Bet YOUNG DILLON 6/1
I like the staking here We wont lose money if Kruzhlinin places Yet still have two other savers KRUZHLININ has one flaw I just don't know how fit he is But the price does compensate for that
Wincanton 2.10
NORTH HILL HARVEY 11/4
Each Way - 1/4 the Odds 1,2 places
Only 2 places in a 6 runner race My angles do offer some hope in this race Obviously it could be tactical I just feel we have a very good chance
Wincanton 3.20
£2 Each Way SET LIST 20/1 £5 Win Bet FINGERONTHESWITCH 7/1 £1 Win Bet GENTLEMAN JON 12/1
The Badger Ales Trophy Should be interesting to watch Have I made a good enough case here ? Probably not but I am highlighting the race As there are big prices in a strangely staked race
Chelmsford 6.10
CURBYOURENTHUSIASM 5/2
Each Way 1/4 The Odds 1,2
I love his chance on paper He has never let me down the times I opposed him I hope he won't now I want to bet him Very few similar races So unsafe to take a statistical approach But I think he should be good enough
Final Decision
CURBYOURENTHUSIASM
But as a win bet
Daily Negatives
No Negative Today Results of Negatives 27 correct bets from 38
P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s
K e l s o 12.35
11/8 Tree Of Liberty, 6/4 Another Bill, 7/1 Grays Choice 10/1 Christmas In Usa, 14/1 Grey Storm, 33/1 Lansdowne Road 33/1 Tiger Mountain, 66/1 Robins Legend, 100/1 Crookofdevon 100/1 Elusive Classic.
Novice Hurdle over 2m 6f I am quite surprised by my angles here ANOTHER BILL is a 6yo He has won a Novice Hurdle recently Without knowing how similar horses got on I expected him to have a far better profile Than TREE OF LIBERTY a 4 year old
I looked at TREE OF LIBERTY's profile 4 year old with 1 Bumper run Beaten in that race but not by more than 12 lengths Running within 5 weeks Starting under 20/1 I was expecting to find a weak record Surprisingly I found a 6-15 record !! TREE OF LIBERTY is a surprise positive He is for sale at the moment which I don't like And I find it hard to commit to him
ANOTHER BILL has a smart 4-8 profile I have to go with him with winning hurdling form He now has a bigger danger than I expected But I am staying with winning hurdling form here
This is a 3m 1f Novice Chase Only 3 runners all very talented Nothing I say here can sort this race One bad jump can throw it all up in the air I am going to take on WOTZIZNAME Whilst No Chasing experience is not a problem He is very lightly raced There are some holes in his hurdles form I just feel safer with DEFINITE OUTCOME
DEFINITE OUTCOME has 1 Chase run Racing Post Rating of 140 Thats pretty reassuring When you consider the favourite hasn't jumped a fence yet He is a big strong type I ran DEFINITE OUTCOME's profile I found a W W CO F W record One horse Fell at the first years ago Another was carried out without any blame The other 3 like him all won It is the best profile in the race
ARPEGE D´ALENE finished last in that race But he was favourite so should be respected
Selection
DEFINITE OUTCOME 7/4
Win Bet
D o n c a s t e r 1.50
5/1 Albernathy, 9/1 George Bowen, 10/1 Withernsea 11/1 Boy In The Bar, 11/1 God Willing, 11/1 Oh This Is Us 12/1 Bertiewhittle, 12/1 Dinkum Diamond, 12/1 London Protocol 12/1 Shady Mccoy, 12/1 That Is The Spirit, 14/1 Mount Tahan 14/1 Right Touch, 16/1 Al Khan, 20/1 Cricklewood Green 20/1 Flaming Spear, 20/1 Jack´s Revenge, 25/1 Highly Sprung
Class 2 handicap over 7f I have a traditional shortlist in this race Year after year the winners seems to be on there This year my angles produced this shortlist
OH THIS IS US - THAT IS THE SPIRIT - MOUNT TAHAN GOD WILLING - SHADY MCCOY - GEORGE BOWEN
There are 47 of these races in October and November Horses aged 7 or more are just 1-111 Horses aged 8 or more are 0-36 So I am taking out the following older horses
DINKUM DIAMOND - AL KHAN BERTIEWHITTLE - JACK´S REVENGE If we look at horses from 6f or shorter Those absent more than 4 weeks from 6f were 0-30 FLAMING SPEAR fails this statistic
BOY IN THE BAR is 5 and up in distance Without a recent race I look elsewhere
I have looked at all the winners aged 3 HIGHLY SPRUNG is far more exposed than all of them If I look at 3 year olds absent over a Month I find a 0-48 record in similar races LONDON PROTOCOL fails this and is rejected CRICKLEWOOD GREEN is biting too much off THAT IS THE SPIRIT was hammered last time Doesn't get the benefit of the doubt Horses from 8f races Absent more than 7 days When aged 5 or more are just 1-70 DINKUM DIAMOND also fails this statistic GOD WILLING also fails it
RIGHT TOUCH will need a career best Best win off 95 and rated 100 today Too many on the shortlist to slip him on there
Shortlist
OH THIS IS US - Tough rating of 101 for a 3yo
ALBERNATHY - Scrapes in on the shortlist
GEORGE BOWEN - Profile fine
WITHERNSEA - Profile fine
MOUNT TAHAN has enough to shortlist
SHADY MCCOY - Like his profile down in trip Two winners aged 6 won with similar profiles May not have stayed a mile on last two runs
Selection
£3 Each Way SHADY MCCOY 14/1
£1 Win Bet GEORGE BOWEN 8/1 £1 Win Bet WITHERNSEA 12/1 £1 Win Bet ALBERNATHY 8/1 £1 Win Bet MOUNT TAHAN 16/1
A i n t r e e 2.05
4/1 Ennistown, 5/1 Young Dillon, 11/2 Shutthefrontdoor 11/2 Unanimite, 6/1 Caid Du Berlais, 13/2 Kruzhlinin 8/1 Holywell, 12/1 Goodbye Dancer, 16/1 The Tourard Man.
This is a Class 2 handicap hurdle over 3m There are 29 similar races at this time of year
If you look at Seasonal debutants Aged 8 or more Who have 11st or more weight You find a miserable 1-74 record The only winner was in a very small field HOLYWELL fails this profile SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR fails this profile Both from the same stable Both likely to have other plans in the spring
Horses Aged 5 Have a 1-29 record in this race The only winner (Jorobaden 2005) won the week before Not a good race for 5 year olds Understandable as this is 3 miles and a Class 2 race This interested me
October November December 3m Handicap Hurdles Class 3 or higher There are 191 of these races
Horses aged 5 did win some of these races But the only ones that did Had 12 or fewer hurdle runs Horses aged 5 with 13 + hurdle races were 0-13 This tells me they are too exposed They don't have much if any improvement left Yet they meet older and stronger horses Either way no 5yo has won with 13 + Hurdle runs And that's over a 3 month period in 3 Classes GOODBYE DANCER is 5 and has this problem UNANIMITE is 5 and has this problem He only just fails that stat and is harder to rule out But he beat nothing last time He is not certain to stay this far in this class THE TOURARD MAN has 2 recent poor runs Difficult to see a tempting case for him
CAID DU BERLAIS is interesting Won the 2014 Paddy Power Gold Cup Had a year off through injury CAID DU BERLAIS has raced once this season That was over 2m 3f I can not make him a negative But his profile is not strong either And you have to wonder if he may need another run With several future targets over fences looming
Shortlist
ENNISTOWN - Last seem at Newmarket That was on the flat in the Cesarewitch That complicates his profile Makes him very hard to read More positives than negatives though
YOUNG DILLON - Came out like 1 winner I would want him on my side Especially with a decent recent race
KRUZHLININ is interesting This is a horse that wants small fields He has been Chasing for a while Mainly in big fields recently Just has not been suited to those races Rated 146 over fences Now running off 138 over hurdles in a small field His profile is unsafe We can't know how good he is now over hurdles No idea how fit he is either But he could easily win if retaining his ability
Selection
£4 Each Way KRUZHLININ 8/1
£2 Win Bet ENNISTOWN 4/1
£2 Win Bet YOUNG DILLON 6/1
W i n c a n t o n 2.10
11/10 Sceau Royal, 3/1 North Hill Harvey, 7/2 Zubayr 14/1 Rayvin Black 16/1 Aristo Du Plessis 40/1 Peckhamecho.
Graded Handicap Hurdle over 2m
6 Runners 3 horses dominate the market Sceau Royal is a 4yo Zubayr is a 4yo North Hill Harvey is a 5yo
Go back to Cheltenham last March SCEAU ROYAL was 12th in the Triumph Hurdle ZUBAYR was 13th in the Triumph Hurdle They were and still are 4 year olds They had Racing Post Ratings of 126 and 130 in that race
NORTH HILL HARVEY is older He ran 9th in the Supreme Novice Hurdle Far stronger race and a Racing Post Rating of 141
I am drawn more to NORTH HILL HARVEY Older horses could just be more suitable The issues with 4 year olds in this race is complicated They won this race in 2001 2002 2003 with top class 4yo's Since 2004 None have managed to win
Actually the 4 year old issue is not that complicated You have to divide horses aged 4 into 2 categories Those with under 7 hurdle runs Those with 7 or more hurdle runs Statistics show that the 4 year olds you want Are the Lightly raced 4 year olds Not the ones with 7 or more hurdle races
Handicap Hurdles Listed and Graded Class Any and every distance
Look at 4 year olds Who have 7 or more previous hurdle runs
In these races in July they are 0-5 In these races in August they are 0-0 In these races in September they are 0-4 In these races in October they are 0-11 In these races in November they are 0-41 In these races in December they are 6-43
This tells us one thing 4 year olds with 7 or more hurdle runs Do not win these races until December Those trying between July and November were 0-61 SCEAU ROYAL has this problem He is a 4yo with 10 Hurdle runs If this statistic works out again Then SCEAU ROYAL is in trouble with this profile
These angles suggest ZUBAYR is the better 4yo But they have struggled in this race And NORTH HILL HARVEY looks the better age
The potential flaw in this analysis Is SCEAU ROYAL's last run Very impressive win Career best Racing Post Rating So maybe that needs to be given more importance But my angles prefer the 5 year old And I am going each way despite 7 runners NORTH HILL HARVEY gets weight from a 4yo He is reported as an easy horse to get fit
Selection
NORTH HILL HARVEY 11/4
Each Way
1/4 the Odds 1,2 places
D o n c a s t e r 2.25
11/8 Growl, 5/1 Absolutely So, 11/1 Jack Dexter, 12/1 Dawaa 12/1 Kimberella, 14/1 Aeolus, 14/1 Lady Macapa 16/1 Dutch Destiny, 33/1 Burnt Sugar.
The Wentworth Stakes is a 6f Listed race There are 15 renewals of this race Horses from 7f or longer last time were 2-53 Those aged under 6 were 0-36 doing this DAWAA fails this 0-36 record Those from 7f races in Class 2 or lower were 0-37 DAWAA fails this as well KIMBERELLA and ABSOLUTELY SO do as well I am against DUTCH DESTINY Think she is too inexperienced LADY MACAPA is a 3yo filly None have won this race before She is coming up two Grades in Class as well JACK DEXTER won this last year on Heavy Don't see lightning striking twice on fast ground BURNT SUGAR - Numbers not good enough He comes from the worst trial race too
Shortlist
AEOLUS has some promise One of the few with some 6f form on Fast Much as they say he is better on soft
GROWL - 2nd in a Group 1 last time That was a Career best run by miles His best previous Racing Post Rating was 106 At Ascot last time he recorded a massive 118 That would win every past renewal if repeated It is miles clear than any other horse in the race If GROWL repeats that run he will win But you have to consider it may have been a fluke He was a 50/1 chance Some of his opponents failed to deliver It was miles better than anything he has ever done before That does make me a bit sceptical I think GROWL should be a saver I think we should buy him out of the race I can not trust that last performance
I am taking a chance on a big priced bet The reason is faster ground
Very Few of these Have raced over 6f on faster ground before At least not in the last 13 months Racing Post Ratings 6f races Good to Firm or faster
111 Kimberella 106 Growl 104 Aeolus
KIMBERELLA has the best fast ground 6f number GROWL the second best So I will hope this is the best approach
Selection
£6 Win Bet KIMBERELLA 10/1
£4 Saver Bet GROWL 11/8
W i n c a n t o n 3.20
3/1 Southfield Theatre, 4/1 Present Man, 5/1 The Young Master 8/1 Fingerontheswitch, 9/1 Carole´s Destrier, 10/1 Gentleman Jon 12/1 Cocktails At Dawn, 14/1 Ziga Boy, 16/1 Roc D´apsis 16/1 Set List, 25/1 Bob Tucker.
The Badger Ales Trophy is a 3m 1f Handicap Chase I am going to oppose 8yo seasonal debutants Based on some interesting early season angles
October November December Handicap Chases 2m 5f or more Listed and Graded races There are 135 of these races since 2002
If you look at 8yo seasonal debutants They have a 4-119 record since 2002 The 4 winners that did it were years ago They mostly had very light weights as well
Look at 8yo seasonal debutants since 2007 In all similar races they have a 0-69 record Look at 8yo seasonal debutants with 10st 6lbs + In all similar races there was a 1-84 record
I hope this is a significant angle These are prestigious races in these 3 months Full of High class prospects Cheltenham and Aintree Festival players No real surprise 8yo debutants have struggled The younger horses aged 7 have more improvement And the 8 year olds that bump into them Probably have not fulfilled their promise when 7 year olds As if they had then they would not be in Handicaps No 8yo debutant has won the Hennessy in decades None have won the Paddy Power Gold Cup None have won this race in 10 years None the Becher Chase or any of these autumn races So I am going to oppose them in this race Horses aged 8 hardly score well in this race anyway They are only 1-49 in the last 15 renewals
8yo Debutants 0-69 since 2007 8yo Debutants 1-84 with 10st 6lbs + The following 8yo debutants are rejected
COCKTAILS AT DAWN CAROLE´S DESTRIER SOUTHFIELD THEATRE
These 3 horses are rated 147 148 150 15 past renewals of this race None were won by a horse rated higher than 145 So I feel they have a tough enough task anyway
THE YOUNG MASTER is rated 150 We know no past winner won rated more than 145 THE YOUNG MASTER is a 7yo seasonal debutant Seasonal debutants aged 7 are fine But these all had 9 or fewer previous Chase starts THE YOUNG MASTER has now had 10 runs Not a big issue but not a match to a winner And the rating of 150 hurts his profile as well ZIGA BOY is a 7yo seasonal debutant 18 Chase runs is too much for me though He would be the most exposed 7yo debutant This looks a prep race for something else BOB TUCKER looks unsafe Hard to see him winning on recent form
PRESENT MAN is a 6 year old Horses aged 6 do score well But I do have some problems with him PRESENT MAN comes from a 2m 4f race Every other horse comes from 3m or more So he is the only horse going up in distance If you look at past renewals Horses that came from 2m 6f or shorter were 0-32 PRESENT MAN fails that 0-32 record This race has never rewarded trip jumpers And 14 of the 15 winners had more Chase runs I can't bet PRESENT MAN with this profile
ROC D´APSIS was hammered on his seasonal debut I needed more from him His last 3 runs worry me all over 3m As he did not prove he can stay That worries me as his sire has no 3m + winners The only sire in the race yet to achieve that
Shortlist
GENTLEMAN JON won recently 8 year olds are 1-49 in this race Not been a good race so far for his age group He does come here fit and in form though It may only have been a 4 horse race he won But it was a career best Racing Post Rating He has a 3-7 record on this track So I would not rule him out He has a bit to prove on breeding stats though If you look at his sire Beat All His Hurdle and Chase runners Those that raced in Listed or Graded races are 0-19 His Sire has yet to get a National Hunt winner in this class If you just look at the sires Chasers They are 0-22 in Class 2 of higher GENTLEMAN JON will need a career best And to set a higher standard than any by his sire have done
FINGERONTHESWITCH is a 6 year old Horses aged 6 are fine in these races The problem is none had under 4 Chase runs FINGERONTHESWITCH only has 3 runs And he fell in one of those I can find a 6yo with 4 Chase starts Who won the Welsh Grand National I can find a Hennessy winner (Strong Flow) Who was 6 and had 4 Chase starts None though had only 3 which concerns me Then again he has had Point to Point runs He does look progressive Will like the ground And if you ignore his Cheltenham form He looks even more progressive and consistent My main worry is inexperience and a last time Fall
SET LIST is a lightly raced Chaser Plenty of positives in his profile Slight concern he lacks a bit of backclass He has never raced beyond a Class 3 race yet But he comes here after a career best run His last time out Racing Post Rating was his best I think he is good value at 16/1 +
Selection
£2 Each Way SET LIST 20/1
£5 Win Bet FINGERONTHESWITCH 7/1
£1 Win Bet GENTLEMAN JON 12/1
D o n c a s t e r 3.35
6/1 Cape Cova, 7/1 Wrangler, 12/1 Erik The Red 12/1 Prize Money, 12/1 Soldier In Action, 14/1 Litigant, 14/1 Qassem, 14/1 Tawdeea, 16/1 Montaly 20/1 Buonarroti, 20/1 Dashing Star 20/1 William Hunter, 25/1 Fattsota, 25/1 Green Light, 25/1 Mirsaale 25/1 Trendsetter, 33/1 Mistiroc, 33/1 Mukhayyam 33/1 Sir Chauvelin.
I sent detailed analysis for this yesterday No point in sending it again I got to the shortlist stage Now the task is to try and pick the winner
Shortlist
MONTALY NOT SO SLEEPY PRIZE MONEY CAPE COVA TAWDEEA
NOT SO SLEEPY is a non runner MONTALY rejected on the ground
I am drafting in WILLIAM HUNTER He was a Positive I didn't shortlist yesterday I think he does have a chance of taking this
This is a 1m 6f Handicap Class 2 race Very few similar races at this time of year I will start with some numbers
Racing Post Ratings 1m 6f races
114 Curbyourenthusiasm 107 Curbyourenthusiasm 104 Great Hall 97 Great Hall 95 Great Hall
CURBYOURENTHUSIASM stands out He has a big edge on the above numbers I am quite drawn to him over this distance Having been opposing him for a few runs
His Sire is Mastercraftsman This sire has not yet had a 2m winner in Class 2 or higher His last 3 runs have been 2m or more in Group 2 races Not Bred to stay in any of those races I opposed him in all of them
Before that he won a Class 2 Handicap And was second in a Yorkshire Cup CURBYOURENTHUSIASM is the class horse He is now back over his ideal range
Quite how his profile works I don't know Not enough similar races to understand it To know if the 57 day break is helpful or not Or how the profiles of other horses work That is the price we are going to have to pay
WINNING STORY only has 2 career runs I looked at all similar races all year round Run over 1m 3f or more Very few winners had just 2 runs None that did had an absence as well He may win but he has to be unsafe
I see others as unsafe as well GREAT HALL comes from 10f to 14f Thats a 4f jump in trip only 7 days since his last run I think he is beatable
RIDEONASTAR is out of form Hard to see him having the class anyway
WATERSMEET has a chance He comes from 10f and has limited 14f form The way I look at his profile Is he has the talent to be a saver But we just don't know how he will run Has he had enough for the year He's been on the go since February Hammered last time at 50/1 But he did win before that A saver could be sensible
HAINES drops down half a Mile I don't have a big problem with his profile I am conscious that in 25 career starts His career best Racing Post Rating was 96 Several others have far bigger numbers But he does get weight which will compensate
I like CURBYOURENTHUSIASM I see him as the class horse He is only allowed to run in this race As his rating has come down from 111 to 109 to 107 to 105 Courtesy of defeats in races he was not bred to stay I hope that his class will show over his best distance
Comments on What Goes On In Here?
Senior Member
Usergroup: Full Members
Joined: Nov 12, 2003
Total Topics: 28
Total Comments: 188
Posted Mar 10, 2017 - 03:01 AM:
The Mathematician-Betting forums are private forums for members of the Mathematician-Betting.co.uk service.
As a non member you will see nothing unfortunately.
Inside however is a busy active forum where members discuss racing and sports betting, providing both daily thoughts and advice and long term betting strategy thinking.
It is a great place to ask questions and to raise your general knowledge of betting.
The forums are a complimentary add on for memebrs of our Private Service.
Read more about the Private Members Service here
Horse Racing Advice
To join our private service now under our No Quibble Refund Guarantee click here ..
Join
Below is a copy of an historic message as a typical sample of what members receive in their email from us each betting day.
As you can see research effort and reasoning is expansive and far beyong a simple name of horse only tip.
========================================================================
Mathematician 2467
Saturday November 5th
1 Bet today
0 Negative
9 Previews
9 previews
7 are in Class 2 or higher
The message has graduated to classier races
Expansive Previews in better quality races today
1 Bet chosen from 2 strangely similar options
Today's Bet
Chelmsford 6.10
CURBYOURENTHUSIASM 5/2
Win Bet
I have changed the bet in the last half hour
And gone for a win bet which is not as safe as I planned
My best bet today is Curbyourenthusiam
But i wanted to bet him each way
But I have no control over the market
Evening race on the Sand he could be any price
So I nearly went with my second choice bet
Wincanton 2.10 - NORTH HILL HARVEY 11/4 Each Way
I spent half an hour chewing over this decision
These bets are spookily similar
Both are 11/4 and each way bets
Both are in races with just 6 runners
I nearly went with this bet
Wincanton 2.10 -NORTH HILL HARVEY 11/4
Chelmsford 6.10 -CURBYOURENTHUSIASM 5/2
£3 Win Bet on Each Horse
£2 Each Way Double on both
In the end I went for simplicity
I have gone with a Win Bet
I could have chosen a safer route
But lets just go for the win bet
Sunday
There will be a Sunday message
There is a lot of very small fields though
I will do something in the Cork National
I will also cover the USA Presidential Election
I have novelty bets at 4/1 and 8/1
Predicting the Correct Score in this election
T o d a y s M e s s a g e
The 2 easiest races today start the message
My choices are 5/4 and 7/4
These are solid enough but not maximums
Then we do battle in 7 much harder races
There were just 2 possible bets
Wincanton 2.10
Chelmsford 6.10
Aintree 2.05
£4 Each Way KRUZHLININ 8/1
£2 Win Bet ENNISTOWN 4/1
£2 Win Bet YOUNG DILLON 6/1
I like the staking here
We wont lose money if Kruzhlinin places
Yet still have two other savers
KRUZHLININ has one flaw
I just don't know how fit he is
But the price does compensate for that
Wincanton 2.10
NORTH HILL HARVEY 11/4
Each Way - 1/4 the Odds 1,2 places
Only 2 places in a 6 runner race
My angles do offer some hope in this race
Obviously it could be tactical
I just feel we have a very good chance
Wincanton 3.20
£2 Each Way SET LIST 20/1
£5 Win Bet FINGERONTHESWITCH 7/1
£1 Win Bet GENTLEMAN JON 12/1
The Badger Ales Trophy
Should be interesting to watch
Have I made a good enough case here ?
Probably not but I am highlighting the race
As there are big prices in a strangely staked race
Chelmsford 6.10
CURBYOURENTHUSIASM 5/2
Each Way
1/4 The Odds 1,2
I love his chance on paper
He has never let me down the times I opposed him
I hope he won't now I want to bet him
Very few similar races
So unsafe to take a statistical approach
But I think he should be good enough
Final Decision
CURBYOURENTHUSIASM
But as a win bet
Daily Negatives
No Negative Today
Results of Negatives
27 correct bets from 38
P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s
K e l s o 12.35
11/8 Tree Of Liberty, 6/4 Another Bill, 7/1 Grays Choice
10/1 Christmas In Usa, 14/1 Grey Storm, 33/1 Lansdowne Road
33/1 Tiger Mountain, 66/1 Robins Legend, 100/1 Crookofdevon
100/1 Elusive Classic.
Novice Hurdle over 2m 6f
I am quite surprised by my angles here
ANOTHER BILL is a 6yo
He has won a Novice Hurdle recently
Without knowing how similar horses got on
I expected him to have a far better profile
Than TREE OF LIBERTY a 4 year old
I looked at TREE OF LIBERTY's profile
4 year old with 1 Bumper run
Beaten in that race but not by more than 12 lengths
Running within 5 weeks
Starting under 20/1
I was expecting to find a weak record
Surprisingly I found a 6-15 record !!
TREE OF LIBERTY is a surprise positive
He is for sale at the moment which I don't like
And I find it hard to commit to him
ANOTHER BILL has a smart 4-8 profile
I have to go with him with winning hurdling form
He now has a bigger danger than I expected
But I am staying with winning hurdling form here
Selection
ANOTHER BILL 11/10
Win Bet
A i n t r e e 1.30
5/4 Wotzizname, 15/8 Definite Outcome
5/2 Arpege D´alene.
This is a 3m 1f Novice Chase
Only 3 runners all very talented
Nothing I say here can sort this race
One bad jump can throw it all up in the air
I am going to take on WOTZIZNAME
Whilst No Chasing experience is not a problem
He is very lightly raced
There are some holes in his hurdles form
I just feel safer with DEFINITE OUTCOME
DEFINITE OUTCOME has 1 Chase run
Racing Post Rating of 140
Thats pretty reassuring
When you consider the favourite hasn't jumped a fence yet
He is a big strong type
I ran DEFINITE OUTCOME's profile
I found a W W CO F W record
One horse Fell at the first years ago
Another was carried out without any blame
The other 3 like him all won
It is the best profile in the race
ARPEGE D´ALENE finished last in that race
But he was favourite so should be respected
Selection
DEFINITE OUTCOME 7/4
Win Bet
D o n c a s t e r 1.50
5/1 Albernathy, 9/1 George Bowen, 10/1 Withernsea
11/1 Boy In The Bar, 11/1 God Willing, 11/1 Oh This Is Us
12/1 Bertiewhittle, 12/1 Dinkum Diamond, 12/1 London Protocol
12/1 Shady Mccoy, 12/1 That Is The Spirit, 14/1 Mount Tahan
14/1 Right Touch, 16/1 Al Khan, 20/1 Cricklewood Green
20/1 Flaming Spear, 20/1 Jack´s Revenge, 25/1 Highly Sprung
Class 2 handicap over 7f
I have a traditional shortlist in this race
Year after year the winners seems to be on there
This year my angles produced this shortlist
OH THIS IS US - THAT IS THE SPIRIT - MOUNT TAHAN
GOD WILLING - SHADY MCCOY - GEORGE BOWEN
There are 47 of these races in October and November
Horses aged 7 or more are just 1-111
Horses aged 8 or more are 0-36
So I am taking out the following older horses
DINKUM DIAMOND - AL KHAN
BERTIEWHITTLE - JACK´S REVENGE
If we look at horses from 6f or shorter
Those absent more than 4 weeks from 6f were 0-30
FLAMING SPEAR fails this statistic
BOY IN THE BAR is 5 and up in distance
Without a recent race I look elsewhere
I have looked at all the winners aged 3
HIGHLY SPRUNG is far more exposed than all of them
If I look at 3 year olds absent over a Month
I find a 0-48 record in similar races
LONDON PROTOCOL fails this and is rejected
CRICKLEWOOD GREEN is biting too much off
THAT IS THE SPIRIT was hammered last time
Doesn't get the benefit of the doubt
Horses from 8f races
Absent more than 7 days
When aged 5 or more are just 1-70
DINKUM DIAMOND also fails this statistic
GOD WILLING also fails it
RIGHT TOUCH will need a career best
Best win off 95 and rated 100 today
Too many on the shortlist to slip him on there
Shortlist
OH THIS IS US - Tough rating of 101 for a 3yo
ALBERNATHY - Scrapes in on the shortlist
GEORGE BOWEN - Profile fine
WITHERNSEA - Profile fine
MOUNT TAHAN has enough to shortlist
SHADY MCCOY - Like his profile down in trip
Two winners aged 6 won with similar profiles
May not have stayed a mile on last two runs
Selection
£3 Each Way SHADY MCCOY 14/1
£1 Win Bet GEORGE BOWEN 8/1
£1 Win Bet WITHERNSEA 12/1
£1 Win Bet ALBERNATHY 8/1
£1 Win Bet MOUNT TAHAN 16/1
A i n t r e e 2.05
4/1 Ennistown, 5/1 Young Dillon, 11/2 Shutthefrontdoor
11/2 Unanimite, 6/1 Caid Du Berlais, 13/2 Kruzhlinin
8/1 Holywell, 12/1 Goodbye Dancer, 16/1 The Tourard Man.
This is a Class 2 handicap hurdle over 3m
There are 29 similar races at this time of year
If you look at Seasonal debutants
Aged 8 or more
Who have 11st or more weight
You find a miserable 1-74 record
The only winner was in a very small field
HOLYWELL fails this profile
SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR fails this profile
Both from the same stable
Both likely to have other plans in the spring
Horses Aged 5
Have a 1-29 record in this race
The only winner (Jorobaden 2005) won the week before
Not a good race for 5 year olds
Understandable as this is 3 miles and a Class 2 race
This interested me
October November December
3m Handicap Hurdles
Class 3 or higher
There are 191 of these races
Horses aged 5 did win some of these races
But the only ones that did
Had 12 or fewer hurdle runs
Horses aged 5 with 13 + hurdle races were 0-13
This tells me they are too exposed
They don't have much if any improvement left
Yet they meet older and stronger horses
Either way no 5yo has won with 13 + Hurdle runs
And that's over a 3 month period in 3 Classes
GOODBYE DANCER is 5 and has this problem
UNANIMITE is 5 and has this problem
He only just fails that stat and is harder to rule out
But he beat nothing last time
He is not certain to stay this far in this class
THE TOURARD MAN has 2 recent poor runs
Difficult to see a tempting case for him
CAID DU BERLAIS is interesting
Won the 2014 Paddy Power Gold Cup
Had a year off through injury
CAID DU BERLAIS has raced once this season
That was over 2m 3f
I can not make him a negative
But his profile is not strong either
And you have to wonder if he may need another run
With several future targets over fences looming
Shortlist
ENNISTOWN - Last seem at Newmarket
That was on the flat in the Cesarewitch
That complicates his profile
Makes him very hard to read
More positives than negatives though
YOUNG DILLON - Came out like 1 winner
I would want him on my side
Especially with a decent recent race
KRUZHLININ is interesting
This is a horse that wants small fields
He has been Chasing for a while
Mainly in big fields recently
Just has not been suited to those races
Rated 146 over fences
Now running off 138 over hurdles in a small field
His profile is unsafe
We can't know how good he is now over hurdles
No idea how fit he is either
But he could easily win if retaining his ability
Selection
£4 Each Way KRUZHLININ 8/1
£2 Win Bet ENNISTOWN 4/1
£2 Win Bet YOUNG DILLON 6/1
W i n c a n t o n 2.10
11/10 Sceau Royal, 3/1 North Hill Harvey,
7/2 Zubayr 14/1 Rayvin Black
16/1 Aristo Du Plessis 40/1 Peckhamecho.
Graded Handicap Hurdle over 2m
6 Runners
3 horses dominate the market
Sceau Royal is a 4yo
Zubayr is a 4yo
North Hill Harvey is a 5yo
Go back to Cheltenham last March
SCEAU ROYAL was 12th in the Triumph Hurdle
ZUBAYR was 13th in the Triumph Hurdle
They were and still are 4 year olds
They had Racing Post Ratings of 126 and 130 in that race
NORTH HILL HARVEY is older
He ran 9th in the Supreme Novice Hurdle
Far stronger race and a Racing Post Rating of 141
I am drawn more to NORTH HILL HARVEY
Older horses could just be more suitable
The issues with 4 year olds in this race is complicated
They won this race in 2001 2002 2003 with top class 4yo's
Since 2004 None have managed to win
Actually the 4 year old issue is not that complicated
You have to divide horses aged 4 into 2 categories
Those with under 7 hurdle runs
Those with 7 or more hurdle runs
Statistics show that the 4 year olds you want
Are the Lightly raced 4 year olds
Not the ones with 7 or more hurdle races
Handicap Hurdles
Listed and Graded Class
Any and every distance
Look at 4 year olds
Who have 7 or more previous hurdle runs
In these races in July they are 0-5
In these races in August they are 0-0
In these races in September they are 0-4
In these races in October they are 0-11
In these races in November they are 0-41
In these races in December they are 6-43
This tells us one thing
4 year olds with 7 or more hurdle runs
Do not win these races until December
Those trying between July and November were 0-61
SCEAU ROYAL has this problem
He is a 4yo with 10 Hurdle runs
If this statistic works out again
Then SCEAU ROYAL is in trouble with this profile
These angles suggest ZUBAYR is the better 4yo
But they have struggled in this race
And NORTH HILL HARVEY looks the better age
The potential flaw in this analysis
Is SCEAU ROYAL's last run
Very impressive win
Career best Racing Post Rating
So maybe that needs to be given more importance
But my angles prefer the 5 year old
And I am going each way despite 7 runners
NORTH HILL HARVEY gets weight from a 4yo
He is reported as an easy horse to get fit
Selection
NORTH HILL HARVEY 11/4
Each Way
1/4 the Odds 1,2 places
D o n c a s t e r 2.25
11/8 Growl, 5/1 Absolutely So,
11/1 Jack Dexter, 12/1 Dawaa 12/1 Kimberella,
14/1 Aeolus, 14/1 Lady Macapa
16/1 Dutch Destiny, 33/1 Burnt Sugar.
The Wentworth Stakes is a 6f Listed race
There are 15 renewals of this race
Horses from 7f or longer last time were 2-53
Those aged under 6 were 0-36 doing this
DAWAA fails this 0-36 record
Those from 7f races in Class 2 or lower were 0-37
DAWAA fails this as well
KIMBERELLA and ABSOLUTELY SO do as well
I am against DUTCH DESTINY
Think she is too inexperienced
LADY MACAPA is a 3yo filly
None have won this race before
She is coming up two Grades in Class as well
JACK DEXTER won this last year on Heavy
Don't see lightning striking twice on fast ground
BURNT SUGAR - Numbers not good enough
He comes from the worst trial race too
Shortlist
AEOLUS has some promise
One of the few with some 6f form on Fast
Much as they say he is better on soft
GROWL - 2nd in a Group 1 last time
That was a Career best run by miles
His best previous Racing Post Rating was 106
At Ascot last time he recorded a massive 118
That would win every past renewal if repeated
It is miles clear than any other horse in the race
If GROWL repeats that run he will win
But you have to consider it may have been a fluke
He was a 50/1 chance
Some of his opponents failed to deliver
It was miles better than anything he has ever done before
That does make me a bit sceptical
I think GROWL should be a saver
I think we should buy him out of the race
I can not trust that last performance
I am taking a chance on a big priced bet
The reason is faster ground
Very Few of these
Have raced over 6f on faster ground before
At least not in the last 13 months
Racing Post Ratings
6f races
Good to Firm or faster
111 Kimberella
106 Growl
104 Aeolus
KIMBERELLA has the best fast ground 6f number
GROWL the second best
So I will hope this is the best approach
Selection
£6 Win Bet KIMBERELLA 10/1
£4 Saver Bet GROWL 11/8
W i n c a n t o n 3.20
3/1 Southfield Theatre, 4/1 Present Man, 5/1 The Young Master
8/1 Fingerontheswitch, 9/1 Carole´s Destrier, 10/1 Gentleman Jon
12/1 Cocktails At Dawn, 14/1 Ziga Boy, 16/1 Roc D´apsis
16/1 Set List, 25/1 Bob Tucker.
The Badger Ales Trophy is a 3m 1f Handicap Chase
I am going to oppose 8yo seasonal debutants
Based on some interesting early season angles
October November December
Handicap Chases
2m 5f or more
Listed and Graded races
There are 135 of these races since 2002
If you look at 8yo seasonal debutants
They have a 4-119 record since 2002
The 4 winners that did it were years ago
They mostly had very light weights as well
Look at 8yo seasonal debutants since 2007
In all similar races they have a 0-69 record
Look at 8yo seasonal debutants with 10st 6lbs +
In all similar races there was a 1-84 record
I hope this is a significant angle
These are prestigious races in these 3 months
Full of High class prospects
Cheltenham and Aintree Festival players
No real surprise 8yo debutants have struggled
The younger horses aged 7 have more improvement
And the 8 year olds that bump into them
Probably have not fulfilled their promise when 7 year olds
As if they had then they would not be in Handicaps
No 8yo debutant has won the Hennessy in decades
None have won the Paddy Power Gold Cup
None have won this race in 10 years
None the Becher Chase or any of these autumn races
So I am going to oppose them in this race
Horses aged 8 hardly score well in this race anyway
They are only 1-49 in the last 15 renewals
8yo Debutants 0-69 since 2007
8yo Debutants 1-84 with 10st 6lbs +
The following 8yo debutants are rejected
COCKTAILS AT DAWN
CAROLE´S DESTRIER
SOUTHFIELD THEATRE
These 3 horses are rated 147 148 150
15 past renewals of this race
None were won by a horse rated higher than 145
So I feel they have a tough enough task anyway
THE YOUNG MASTER is rated 150
We know no past winner won rated more than 145
THE YOUNG MASTER is a 7yo seasonal debutant
Seasonal debutants aged 7 are fine
But these all had 9 or fewer previous Chase starts
THE YOUNG MASTER has now had 10 runs
Not a big issue but not a match to a winner
And the rating of 150 hurts his profile as well
ZIGA BOY is a 7yo seasonal debutant
18 Chase runs is too much for me though
He would be the most exposed 7yo debutant
This looks a prep race for something else
BOB TUCKER looks unsafe
Hard to see him winning on recent form
PRESENT MAN is a 6 year old
Horses aged 6 do score well
But I do have some problems with him
PRESENT MAN comes from a 2m 4f race
Every other horse comes from 3m or more
So he is the only horse going up in distance
If you look at past renewals
Horses that came from 2m 6f or shorter were 0-32
PRESENT MAN fails that 0-32 record
This race has never rewarded trip jumpers
And 14 of the 15 winners had more Chase runs
I can't bet PRESENT MAN with this profile
ROC D´APSIS was hammered on his seasonal debut
I needed more from him
His last 3 runs worry me all over 3m
As he did not prove he can stay
That worries me as his sire has no 3m + winners
The only sire in the race yet to achieve that
Shortlist
GENTLEMAN JON won recently
8 year olds are 1-49 in this race
Not been a good race so far for his age group
He does come here fit and in form though
It may only have been a 4 horse race he won
But it was a career best Racing Post Rating
He has a 3-7 record on this track
So I would not rule him out
He has a bit to prove on breeding stats though
If you look at his sire Beat All
His Hurdle and Chase runners
Those that raced in Listed or Graded races are 0-19
His Sire has yet to get a National Hunt winner in this class
If you just look at the sires Chasers
They are 0-22 in Class 2 of higher
GENTLEMAN JON will need a career best
And to set a higher standard than any by his sire have done
FINGERONTHESWITCH is a 6 year old
Horses aged 6 are fine in these races
The problem is none had under 4 Chase runs
FINGERONTHESWITCH only has 3 runs
And he fell in one of those
I can find a 6yo with 4 Chase starts
Who won the Welsh Grand National
I can find a Hennessy winner (Strong Flow)
Who was 6 and had 4 Chase starts
None though had only 3 which concerns me
Then again he has had Point to Point runs
He does look progressive
Will like the ground
And if you ignore his Cheltenham form
He looks even more progressive and consistent
My main worry is inexperience and a last time Fall
SET LIST is a lightly raced Chaser
Plenty of positives in his profile
Slight concern he lacks a bit of backclass
He has never raced beyond a Class 3 race yet
But he comes here after a career best run
His last time out Racing Post Rating was his best
I think he is good value at 16/1 +
Selection
£2 Each Way SET LIST 20/1
£5 Win Bet FINGERONTHESWITCH 7/1
£1 Win Bet GENTLEMAN JON 12/1
D o n c a s t e r 3.35
6/1 Cape Cova, 7/1 Wrangler, 12/1 Erik The Red
12/1 Prize Money, 12/1 Soldier In Action,
14/1 Litigant, 14/1 Qassem, 14/1 Tawdeea, 16/1 Montaly
20/1 Buonarroti, 20/1 Dashing Star 20/1 William Hunter,
25/1 Fattsota, 25/1 Green Light, 25/1 Mirsaale
25/1 Trendsetter, 33/1 Mistiroc, 33/1 Mukhayyam
33/1 Sir Chauvelin.
I sent detailed analysis for this yesterday
No point in sending it again
I got to the shortlist stage
Now the task is to try and pick the winner
Shortlist
MONTALY
NOT SO SLEEPY
PRIZE MONEY
CAPE COVA
TAWDEEA
NOT SO SLEEPY is a non runner
MONTALY rejected on the ground
I am drafting in WILLIAM HUNTER
He was a Positive I didn't shortlist yesterday
I think he does have a chance of taking this
Selection
£5 Win Bet WILLIAM HUNTER 16/1
£2 Win Bet CAPE COVA 5/1
£2 Win Bet PRIZE MONEY 12/1
£1 Win Bet TAWDEEA 20/1
C h e l m s f o r d 6.10
9/4 Winning Story, 100/30 Haines
9/2 Curbyourenthusiasm, 5/1 Watersmeet
11/2 Great Hall, 25/1 Rideonastar.
This is a 1m 6f Handicap
Class 2 race
Very few similar races at this time of year
I will start with some numbers
Racing Post Ratings
1m 6f races
114 Curbyourenthusiasm
107 Curbyourenthusiasm
104 Great Hall
97 Great Hall
95 Great Hall
CURBYOURENTHUSIASM stands out
He has a big edge on the above numbers
I am quite drawn to him over this distance
Having been opposing him for a few runs
His Sire is Mastercraftsman
This sire has not yet had a 2m winner in Class 2 or higher
His last 3 runs have been 2m or more in Group 2 races
Not Bred to stay in any of those races
I opposed him in all of them
Before that he won a Class 2 Handicap
And was second in a Yorkshire Cup
CURBYOURENTHUSIASM is the class horse
He is now back over his ideal range
Quite how his profile works I don't know
Not enough similar races to understand it
To know if the 57 day break is helpful or not
Or how the profiles of other horses work
That is the price we are going to have to pay
WINNING STORY only has 2 career runs
I looked at all similar races all year round
Run over 1m 3f or more
Very few winners had just 2 runs
None that did had an absence as well
He may win but he has to be unsafe
I see others as unsafe as well
GREAT HALL comes from 10f to 14f
Thats a 4f jump in trip only 7 days since his last run
I think he is beatable
RIDEONASTAR is out of form
Hard to see him having the class anyway
WATERSMEET has a chance
He comes from 10f and has limited 14f form
The way I look at his profile
Is he has the talent to be a saver
But we just don't know how he will run
Has he had enough for the year
He's been on the go since February
Hammered last time at 50/1
But he did win before that
A saver could be sensible
HAINES drops down half a Mile
I don't have a big problem with his profile
I am conscious that in 25 career starts
His career best Racing Post Rating was 96
Several others have far bigger numbers
But he does get weight which will compensate
I like CURBYOURENTHUSIASM
I see him as the class horse
He is only allowed to run in this race
As his rating has come down from 111 to 109 to 107 to 105
Courtesy of defeats in races he was not bred to stay
I hope that his class will show over his best distance
Selection
CURBYOURENTHUSIASM 11/4
Each Way
1/4 The Odds 1,2
****************************************************
****************************************************
To join our private service now under our No Quibble Refund Guarantee click here ..
Join