Newmarket 2.00 KAY GEE BE 25/1 Each Way RAMONA CHASE 16/1 Saver
Thirsk 5.20
PADDY BEAR Each Way 100/30
Hexhan 5.55
EDAS Win Bet 7/4
* Prices listed on selections below
It was a very close call. Nearly had an account bet in the 2pm at Newmarket. I seem to be the only person in England that wants to be with KAY GEE BE and he is 40/1 on Betfair and it is a ridiculous price. I want to save in the race as well. RAMONA CHASE is the saver around 16/1 and although I wont stake him I have thrown a few quid on Viva Vettori at 40/1 in the same race. I just think I have excellent value horses with a far better chance than people think in the race but 15 runners is the worst for each way terms and I am not convinced the rose tinted spectacles are not fooling me. In the end I had to go with a strong selection in this race considering prices.
I am never far away in the Thirsk Hunt Cup and suggest you follow me there at 4.50pm. I was thinking about Paddy Bear as a potential bet in the 5.20pm at Thirsk but I wanted a better price for an account bet. In the end I decided that he should be an each way selection. I have to take on the second favourite who has a poor profile. I dont like advising each way bets under 4/1 and try not to do it but I have to in this case and think he is worth a bet. EDAS should win at Hexham and I felt he was worth staking as well.
Kay Gee Be 28/1 - Corals -Stan J -Vc Kay Gee Be 25/1 - PP - Skybet -Bluesq-Tote-B365 Ramona Chase 20/1 Ladbrokes Ramona Chase 16/1 Corals - Hills -VC-BlueSq-Bet36 Paddy Bear 100/30 Corals -Hills -PP -SJ -VC-Tote Edas is generally 7/4 with all bookmakers
Yesterdays selection GRACIE'S GIFT came from last to first to win which was pleasing. That got back everything and more from the two big price losers we had the other day so it was nicely timed.There was a problem with the phone line yesterday and my sincere apologies for that. I know that can be infuriating when it happens.
NEWMARKET (6 Races) and THIRSK (3 Races) are the bulk of todays message. Time prevents more previews at other tracks but to be honest the cards at Goodwood and Doncaseter dont offer much anyway and I didnt see a race I wanted to preview at either meeting. Therefore some very brief National Hunt words and then its the two main meetings at Newmarket and Thirsk.
N A T I O N A L H U N T
Uttoxeter looks a Ferocious card. Full of big fields.All I can really say there is the Novice Hurdle that opens the card ought to be won by the 7 year old DREAMY SWEENEY. Maiden Hurdle winners like him with no distance jumps have a magnificent record and those his age were 3-4 and I couldnt oppose him much as some of his rivals are Dark prospects.
In the 5.55pm Hexham I couldnt bet CYBERGENIC in the Selling Hurdle. I cant find a horse as old as him win one at this time of year and a heavy defeat just 9 days ago looks a poor preparation to me. I'd much prefer EDAS in this race. I think his general form is superior to these and feel today he can win.
7/2 Foolin Myself, 9/2 Confront, 7/1 Flipando 10/1 King Charles, 10/1 Proponent, 12/1 Deep Winter, 16/1 Ezdiyaad, Mohathab, Ramona Chase 16/1 Road To Love, 20/1 Heron Bay, 20/1 Viva Vettori, 25/1 Bazergan, Dream Lodge Kay Gee Be.
SELECTION
* KAY GEE BE 25/1 Each Way Bet * VIVA VETTORI 25/1 Win Bet
There has been 4 renewals of this race. Its not enough to be confident any trends can be relevant but its a good place to start. The 4 winners had the following attributes. They were all male and had between 7-20 career runs. The horses with under 7 runs(0-6) and over 20 runs (0-20) have yet to win. All 4 past winners carried less than 9st weight as those with 9st or more were 0-24 in this race. All past winnerscame from an 8f race or more and if they had run this year they'd finished 1-2-3-4-5 last time. The two that stoodon those admittedly weak angles were VIVA VETTORI and KAY GEE BE. I'd seriouslyconsider that pair as both are 28/1 +
I'd want to oppose exposed types as more and more of these classy handicaps are won by the unexposed types. There has been 139 Class 2 handicaps in April and May at 8f - 9f - 10f . Horses aged 8 or more like FLIPANDO had a 1-100 record and I wouldnt want him.
CONFRONT has a very worrying weight for a horse without a recent run and I cant find a winner like him in 139 races and I think he is the wrong type. I cant have HERON BAY down from 14f. MOHATHAB is out from a maiden. DREAM LODGE is too exposed and has the wrong preparation. ROAD TO LOVE is absent a very long time for an exposed horse and he looks best opposed. DEEP WINTER is a 4 year old filly. I looked at 4yo fillies like her in the 139 races over 8f-9f-10f. They only won 4 and when they ran this year they had a poor 1-55 record. They also had a 0-50 record when up in trip and I am not sold on DEEP WINTER. Neither BAZERGAN or PROPONENT achieved enough last time. PROPONENT won this race last year but that was then and beaten 30 lengths on his debut this year is a big worry much as the ground was wrong. I didnt find any similar winner to EZDIYAAD coming from a 12f Group race and I wasnt sure he was the right type.
SHORTLIST
VIVA VETTORI - KAY GEE BE - RAMONA CHASE FOOLIN MYSELF - KING CHARLES
KING CHARLES is exposed and I dont like that but he is only exposed by one run and is a borderline case. I dont see him as well handicapped but he can win from this rating. He was 3rd in this last year but had run at Nad El Sheba last year. He's facing a fresh preparation this year and fitness is not as guaranteed this year. He ideally wants a bit further and I would be worried he may need the run and is being laid out for Ascot.
FOOLIN MYSELF is very inexperienced. He beat a top class horse in a maiden as a 2 year old back in 2007 and that has made people believe he is thrown in. I've had a good look at him. Think he's well treated. I think he dissapointed connections only coming 4th last time. There were statistical excuses for him though and he could come on for the run. I think the ground is maybe a bit on the fast side for him. I think he is a strong and serious runner but not without worries and personally I see him more as a saver bet than a win bet.
Given all the issues I wasnt unhappy with the 2 horses that came out best on only 4 renewals of this 9f race. VIVA VETTORI and KAY GEE BE have a much better chance than it may seem in this race. VIVA VETORI does have some concerns with settling but simply put he is too big a price and has too good a profile to ignore and I would have to bet him in this race at 40/1 or more but he misses the shortlist
RAMONA CHASE has an excellent chance. He is technically exposed but only just by one run so it is far too harsh to ignore him on that statistic. His last run at Epsom was when nothing at all went right for the horse. He finished with a lot in hand and he ran very well at this meeting last year off a higher mark. I give him a chance of winning it and from the best age and weight range I am betting him.
KAY GEE BE
I have no problems with his profile and Paragraph 1 shows he is one of the best profiles in the race. The Draw is good. Willie Jarvis has shut his yard down recently but that was precautionary and he has said he plans to "Hit the ground running" with his runners of which KAY GEE BE is the first. I like the fact that KAY GEE BE has upgraded stables late last year and has been dropped 33lbs by the handicapper as well. He runs well fresh. He won first time out as a 3 year old. He ran 2nd first time out aged 4 and has won after a several months absence more than once. He has just the right weight and having upgraded yards he looks a very interesting runner at a huge price considering he loves the ground.
SELECTION
* KAY GEE BE 25/1 Each Way Bet * VIVA VETTORI 25/1 Win Bet
STANJAMES.COM JOCKEY CLUB STAKES (GROUP 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m4f
11/8 Spanish Moon, 7/4 Casual Conquest, 5/1 Bronze Cannon, 6/1 All The Aces, 33/1 Drill Sergeant.
Hard to read SPANISH MOON and how he will run after going to Dubai. No horse that has run this year fitted the profile of past winners doing that. I would rather go with a seasonal debutant. I would see the strongest runners CASUAL CONQUEST and ALL THE ACES but no negatives in the race. ALL THE ACES is very similar to the 1997-98 winners but CASUAL CONQUEST has the smartest form.
7/2 Rip Van Winkle, 4/1 Delegator, 5/1 Mastercraftsman, 9/1 Sea The Stars, 10/1 Evasive, 10/1 Gan Amhras, 14/1 Cityscape, 20/1 Ashram, 20/1 Lord Shanakill, 20/1 Ouqba, 25/1 Finjaan, 33/1 Monitor Closely, 50/1 On Our Way, 80/1 Pure Poetry, 200/1 Imperial Guest, 200/1 Ocean's Minstrel.
SELECTION
Win Bet on RIP VAN WINKLE Place Bet on DELEGATOR Evens or better
The 2000 Guineas is not a great trends race for me. I see it as more of a race for Instinct. The usual dramas and second guessing games about Aidan O Brien's 2 runners RIP VAN WINKLE and MASTERCRAFTSMAN have been going on all Spring and Like many I have not got a clue which is better and doubt many have. Johnny Murtagh has chosen RIP VAN WINKLE despite an injury scare. Looking at what I couldnt bet. CITYSCAPE was beaten in a trial this year so thats not the best of signs. The last 30 races at Newmarket over 8f show horses drawn 1-2-3 as having a 1-84 record. Thats awful so anything drawn very low is opposable so ASHRAM and SEA THE STARS are out. No selection can come from a handicap so OUQBA has to go and he wasnt even topweight in that handicap. I'm ignoring all the 50/1 + runners as well. How can you fancy a Guineas horse that won just 1 of his last 5 runs so LORD SHANAKILL is out. I dont know what to make of EVASIVE or mixed messages coming out about his homework. I think the horse is best opposed. GAN AMHRAS looks to have a reasonable chance much as he is hard to read and I dont know much about him. DELEGATOR was very impressive last time winning the Craven and much as his trainer is Bullish he is always Bullish and can often overrate his horses. It wasnt hard to be impressed by his profile and form. I prefer two here in DELEGATOR and RIP VAN WINKLE. As both are odds against to Place I see the best strategy being a win and place bet in the race
SELECTION
Win Bet on RIP VAN WINKLE Place Bet on DELEGATOR Evens or better
* Palace House Stakes is a Group 3 race over 5f * There has been 21 renewals since 1987 * RIEVAULX WORLD didnt do enough last time out * Exposed horses racing first time out struggled * They had a 1-34 record in the last 21 years * That sole winner was a 20/1 shock * MOORHOUSE LAD fails that * MOORHOUSE LAD is drawn in Stall 1 which may hurt * He is also a "stuffy" horse and may need the run * BORDERLESCOTT is exposed first time out * Only 1 past winner was as old as him anyway * DANDY MAN is exposed first time out * Several look outclassed in this race * AJIGOLO -GROUP THERAPY look too weak * MATSUNOSUKE has the wrong preparation * No past winner races so regularly this year * HOH HOH HOH is in the same boat * He was well beaten in this race last year * JUDGE ´N JURY also has the wrong preparation * ROWE PARK may lack the class * He was well beaten in this race last year * STRIKE THE DEAL is a 4yo seasonal debutant * None of these dropped from a 6f race * His lack of form at 5f would worry me * FAT BOY also looks a horse that wants 6f * He is said to need the race * HOGMANEIGH has a small chance * I cant find a winner that was very similar to him * KING´S APOSTLE is said to need the run * His Penalty puts me off a bit
SHORTLIST
AMOUR PROPRE - CHIEF EDITOR DANDY MAN - STRIKE THE DEAL
All 4 of these have one factor to overcome but I feel one will win despite that problem.
* AMOUR PROPRE is less experienced than any past winner * CHIEF EDITOR looks interesting * He won the 5f Handicap at Newbury 2 weeks ago * Only 1 past winner came from a Handicap * That horse won the same race though at Newbury * Michael Jarvis has improved him this year * He upgraded stables over the winter * I backed him at Newbury and it was Good to soft * He needed every yard to get up and win * His problem is Fast ground and 5f * I can see him leaving it too late * STRIKE THE DEAL has to show he copes with 5f * DANDY MAN has to win first time when exposed * He is "Only just" exposed though * Given all these issues I see two options * I want to take the younger horses over the older ones
TOTESPORT.COM THIRSK HUNT CUP (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-100) 1m
6/1 Charlie Tipple, 6/1 Medici Pearl, 13/2 Flawed Genius, 8/1 Majuro, 10/1 Ansells Pride, 10/1 Bencoolen, 10/1 Kings Point, 10/1 Mangham, 12/1 Osteopathic Remedy, 14/1 Just Bond, 14/1 The Osteopath, 14/1 Wasp, 20/1 Webbow, 25/1 Ilie Nastase, 33/1 Green Park, 33/1 Summon Up Theblood.
SELECTION - FLAWED GENIUS SAVER - BENCOOLEN
* The Hunt Cup is a Mile Handicap for 0-94 rated horses * Exposed horses won 7 of the last 20 renewals * Only a certain type of Exposed horse won though * Those that had under 2 runs that season struggled * These horses had a 1-81 record * THE OSTEOPATH - GREEN PARK fail that * CHARLIE TIPPLE also fail that * The only Exposed horses I'd want need 2 recent runs * Exposed horses aged 4 or 5 have a 0-67 record * MAJURO - MEDICI PEARL fail that * CHARLIE TIPPLE - OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY also fail that * Exposed horses that come from 7f or shorter were 0-50 * KINGS POINT - OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY fail that * GREEN PARK also fails it and cant win from 5f * Exposed horses with 9st 1lbs or more are 1-75 * MAJURO - MEDICI PEARL - KINGS POINT fail that * Horses aged 8 or more are 0-25 * KINGS POINT fails that * 6 of the 21 winners had 1 run this season * Those beaten over 10 lengths in that run struggled * They had a 0-42 record and look opposable * They may need more runs before being in form * MANGHAM fails that and is exposed * I have problems with WASP's 62 day break * Exposed and a 7 year old thats a long break * I cant find a similar winner in similar races * I dont want WASP with that absence * I would make all the above Negatives * Some less impressive stats follow
POSSIBLES
* WEBBOW is a 7yo seasonal debutant * We have had 1 winner that did that (20/1 shock) * Given that WEBBOW is trained by Nigel Tinkler * I wouldnt givehim the benefit of the doubt * Horses that had 1 run this year won 6 renewals * None were aged 6 or more (0-29) * ANSELLS PRIDE - THE OSTEOPATH fail that * THE OSTEOPATH was well beaten in last years race * He has more weight this year as well * Horses that came from 7 races have 5 recent wins * Those with 13 or more runs coming from 7f were 1-73 * Last years winner had 13 runs doing this * He was a Judgement call and may have been forgiven * FLAWED GENIUS has 14 runs and comes from 7f * He is also a horse you have to decide about * No Hunt Cup winner dropped from 10f or more to win * BENCOOLEN - ANSELLS PRIDE - ILIE NASTASE fail that * Horses with 4 or more times that season were 1-52 * Those that didnt run within a week were 0-41 * MAJURO - FLAWED GENIUS fail that * I cant find a similar winner to ILIE NASTASE
STRONG PROFILES
ANSELLS PRIDE SUMMON UP THEBLOOD JUST BOND FLAWED GENIUS BENCOOLEN
* ANSELLS PRIDE only fails luke warm statistics * Difficult to judge him down in trip just 4 days ago * I wouldnt be shocked if he won * I would have him about 3rd 4th 5th best * SUMMON UP THEBLOOD is from a 3yo handicap * I dont have a problem with horses like that * He closely resembles the 1989 and 2003 winners * He is just a bit more exposed than those winners * From his stable I just feel he is opposable * JUST BOND is exposed but is the right type * He would have a chance in this race * I couldnt offer a strong negative against him * FLAWED GENIUS fails a couple of minor stats * Generally his flaws are forgiveable * BENCOOLEN was beaten over 10 lengths 10 days ago * He also dropped from a 10f handicap * I looked at 360 similar races at this time of year * Horses that did exactly the same as BENCOOLEN * I found a 1-60 record which isnt great * No past winner of this race had his profile * That said he was hampered last time out * Had he not been he would have passed that statistic * He was badly held up when denied a run * Watch the video of his last run at Epsom * He finished with a ton in hand that day
* This is 7f Handicap over 7F for horses rated 0-98 * Newmarket has had 17 renewals of this race * Only 3 of the 17 winners were seasonal debutants * All 3 seasonal debutants were female * Male horses that ran first time out were 0-46 * QUANAH PARKER - CALLIGRAPHER fail that * Seasonal debutants struggled with under 5 starts * Those that had under 5 runs were 0-47 in these races * AUNT NICOLA -QUANAH PARKER - CALLIGRAPHER fail that * 3 fillies won this first time out * Those with under 5 runs though were 0-18 * AUNT NICOLA fails that * INDIAN ART didnt do enough for me last time * He has 1 run this year and and was well beaten * Horses with1 run that year won 5 renewals * Those that had 7 or more runs were just 1-56 though * INDIAN ART - FIREBET - WILDCAT WIZARD all fail that * No horse with 1 run this year dropped from 8f * All 25 that tried lost and FIREBET fails that * I like the profiles of just two runners * INFIRAAD - FOLSOMPRISONBLUES * FOLSOMPRISONBLUES doesnty really mirror any past winner * He is ok but I would have prefered a better last run * INFIRAAD has two runs as two past winners did
9/2 Sandwith, 5/1 Bahamian Ballet, 6/1 Le Toreador, 8/1 Invincible Lad, 10/1 Dig Deep, 12/1 Bo McGinty, 12/1 Legal Eagle, 12/1 Mambo Spirit, 14/1 Artsu, Mandurah, 20/1 Divine Spirit, 20/1 Equuleus Pictor, 20/1 Glasshoughton, King Of Swords, 33/1 Blazing Heights, 33/1 Highland Warrior.
* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-80 rated horses * Thirsk has had 47 similar races in May before * This is one of the worst tracks for seasonal debutants * In the 47 Thirsk races they have a 1-132 record * Thirsk have had 66 races in April and May like this * Seasonal debutants were awful * Those with 9 + runs had a 2-191 record * I have to oppose seasonal debutants in this race * INVINCIBLE LAD - ARTSU -EQUULEUS PICTOR fail that * GLASSHOUGHTON - KING OF SWORDS also fail that * BLAZING HEIGHTS -DIG DEEP- DIVINE SPIRIT also fail that * The Draw bothers me here over 5f * Since 2007 there has been 27 races here at 5f * Stalls 1 and 2 had a poor 1-46 record * I would be wary about the very low drawn horses * INVINCIBLE LAD is drawn 2 and already rejected * LE TOREADOR is drawn 1 and thats a worry * LEGAL EAGLE is out with 1 run this year and 37 days off * No past winner run this year and had that break * He also comes from a Claimer * None of the 66 winners did that * Horses aged 8 or more had a 2-95 record * When coming from a 5f race that was 1-68 * BO MCGINTY fails that and he isnt for me * I have always seen him as a small field horse * HIGHLAND WARRIOR also fails that * MANDURAH had an unimpressive profile * Horses like him had a 2-99 record in the 66 races * Both winners were high weights * I am neutral about his profile but its not impressive
STRONG PROFILES
* SANDWITH is well drawn and in form * His last run puts him in with a chance * He hasnt won on fast ground before * He may just prefer it slower * LE TOREADOR is fine but just his draw worries me * BAHAMIAN BALLET is similar to 2 winners * I would prefer more runs this year though * MAMBO SPIRIT has a chance and is like some winners * Again I would prefer more runs this year
4/1 Hysterical Lady, 4/1 Paddy Bear, 11/2 Captain Scooby, 6/1 Blue Noodles, 6/1 Raimond Ridge, 7/1 Liberty Diamond, 10/1 Moonlight Affair, 12/1 Legal Legacy, 20/1 Bermondsey Bob.
* This is a 3yo handicap over 6f * April and May have seen 138 similar races * I want to oppose HYSTERICAL LADY * She is a filly that comes from a 5f race * In 138 races Fillies doing this were 3-197 * Those that ran in May had a 0-115 record * Those fillies with under 5 runs were 0-42 * Those like her with 1-2-3 runs this year were 0-84 * Those like her without a run in 2 weeks were 1-128 * Those like her that were 1-2-3-4 last time out were 0-58 * Those like her with under 2 career wins were 0-152 * HYSTERICAL LADY has to be opposed * LEGAL LEGACY isnt for me out of the weights * Felt he had an unimpressive profile * LIBERTY DIAMOND is a filly from a 2yo maiden * The odd one won but they scored badly * Fillies were 0-20 in the 4 renewals of this race * 4 of the 138 winners were fillies from Nurseries * None of them had under 4 runs though (0-20) * MOONLIGHT AFFAIR fails that * MOONLIGHT AFFAIR isnt top of my list * I couldnt rule out RAIMOND RIDGE * He is on the exposed side though with 14 runs * He is also on a career high mark * All his wins have come on the All Weather as well * I would worry about fast ground for him as well * RAIMOND RIDGE isnt for me * BLUE NOODLES comes from a 7f handicap * I looked at horses that ran within a month doing that * The record was 9-167 * However none came from a Class 6 handicap * Those 1-2-3-4-5 last time in 7f handicaps were 1-66 * Those 6th or worse in 7f handicaps were 8-91 * That suggets thye following * Better to be beaten far in a classier race * Than to run well in a cheap race * BLUE NOODLES misses the shortlist
STRONG PROFILES
* BERMONDSEY BOB has a reasonable profile * I dont see anything really wrong with him * CAPTAIN SCOOBY has a strong profile * Placing 3rd in a much better race last time * PADDY BEAR has just won a 3yo maiden * The runner up has come out and won as well * I liked his profile and he looks a big runner * He quickened well last time out * Last years winner came from the same maiden * Well drawn he looks good enough to win this
This is a 3yo handicap over 8f. Strange trends in so much that I've to divide these into Three different categories. These are "Negatives" as well as "Dont Know's" and "Possibles". First of all my negatives. Newmarket's had 27 of these 3yo handicaps at this time of year. In these 27 handicaps I looked at horses that came from 7f races last year. AVE and BAARIQ do this. Horses that came from 7f races last year had a bad 1-73 record and those that had under 5 runs as these both do had a 0-48 record. It is why I'm making AVE and BAARIQ negatives. The horses that I'm calling Possibles are horses that I dont see any obvious negatives about. They all seem to have some sort of chance but none of them neatly fits a profile of a Past winner. Thats why they have not been made Positives. These horses include AKHENATEN - GOOD AGAIN - SHAMPAGNE and GAILY NOBLE. This only leaves the "Dont Know" list and thats PHOTOGRAPHIC as he has ran just once before and only 1 horse tried that and came 3rd so statistically its inconclusive.
Comments on Mathematician 353
Senior Member
Usergroup: Moderators
Joined: Nov 05, 2003
Total Topics: 6449
Total Comments: 15225
Posted May 02, 2009 - 04:32 AM:
Saturday May 2nd
No Account Bet
3 Selections
Newmarket 2.00
KAY GEE BE 25/1 Each Way
RAMONA CHASE 16/1 Saver
Thirsk 5.20
PADDY BEAR Each Way 100/30
Hexhan 5.55
EDAS Win Bet 7/4
* Prices listed on selections below
It was a very close call. Nearly had an account
bet in the 2pm at Newmarket. I seem to be the
only person in England that wants to be with
KAY GEE BE and he is 40/1 on Betfair and it is
a ridiculous price. I want to save in the race as
well. RAMONA CHASE is the saver around 16/1
and although I wont stake him I have thrown a
few quid on Viva Vettori at 40/1 in the same race.
I just think I have excellent value horses with a
far better chance than people think in the race
but 15 runners is the worst for each way terms
and I am not convinced the rose tinted spectacles
are not fooling me. In the end I had to go with a
strong selection in this race considering prices.
I am never far away in the Thirsk Hunt Cup and
suggest you follow me there at 4.50pm. I was
thinking about Paddy Bear as a potential bet in
the 5.20pm at Thirsk but I wanted a better price
for an account bet. In the end I decided that he
should be an each way selection. I have to take
on the second favourite who has a poor profile. I
dont like advising each way bets under 4/1 and
try not to do it but I have to in this case and think
he is worth a bet. EDAS should win at Hexham
and I felt he was worth staking as well.
Kay Gee Be 28/1 - Corals -Stan J -Vc
Kay Gee Be 25/1 - PP - Skybet -Bluesq-Tote-B365
Ramona Chase 20/1 Ladbrokes
Ramona Chase 16/1 Corals - Hills -VC-BlueSq-Bet36
Paddy Bear 100/30 Corals -Hills -PP -SJ -VC-Tote
Edas is generally 7/4 with all bookmakers
****************************************************
****************************************************
T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G
Yesterdays selection GRACIE'S GIFT came from
last to first to win which was pleasing. That
got back everything and more from the two big
price losers we had the other day so it was
nicely timed.There was a problem with the phone
line yesterday and my sincere apologies for that.
I know that can be infuriating when it happens.
NEWMARKET (6 Races) and THIRSK (3 Races) are
the bulk of todays message. Time prevents more
previews at other tracks but to be honest the
cards at Goodwood and Doncaseter dont offer
much anyway and I didnt see a race I wanted to
preview at either meeting. Therefore some very
brief National Hunt words and then its the two
main meetings at Newmarket and Thirsk.
N A T I O N A L H U N T
Uttoxeter looks a Ferocious card. Full of big
fields.All I can really say there is the Novice
Hurdle that opens the card ought to be won by
the 7 year old DREAMY SWEENEY. Maiden Hurdle
winners like him with no distance jumps have
a magnificent record and those his age were
3-4 and I couldnt oppose him much as some of
his rivals are Dark prospects.
In the 5.55pm Hexham I couldnt bet CYBERGENIC
in the Selling Hurdle. I cant find a horse as old as
him win one at this time of year and a heavy defeat
just 9 days ago looks a poor preparation to me. I'd
much prefer EDAS in this race. I think his general
form is superior to these and feel today he can win.
****************************************************
****************************************************
NEWMARKET 2.00
STANJAMES.COM SUFFOLK STAKES
(HERITAGE HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 1m1f
7/2 Foolin Myself, 9/2 Confront, 7/1 Flipando
10/1 King Charles, 10/1 Proponent, 12/1 Deep
Winter, 16/1 Ezdiyaad, Mohathab, Ramona Chase
16/1 Road To Love, 20/1 Heron Bay, 20/1 Viva
Vettori, 25/1 Bazergan, Dream Lodge Kay Gee Be.
SELECTION
* KAY GEE BE 25/1 Each Way Bet
* VIVA VETTORI 25/1 Win Bet
There has been 4 renewals of this race. Its not
enough to be confident any trends can be relevant
but its a good place to start. The 4 winners had the
following attributes. They were all male and had
between 7-20 career runs. The horses with under
7 runs(0-6) and over 20 runs (0-20) have yet to win.
All 4 past winners carried less than 9st weight as
those with 9st or more were 0-24 in this race. All
past winnerscame from an 8f race or more and if
they had run this year they'd finished 1-2-3-4-5 last
time. The two that stoodon those admittedly weak
angles were VIVA VETTORI and KAY GEE BE. I'd
seriouslyconsider that pair as both are 28/1 +
I'd want to oppose exposed types as more and more
of these classy handicaps are won by the unexposed
types. There has been 139 Class 2 handicaps in April
and May at 8f - 9f - 10f . Horses aged 8 or more like
FLIPANDO had a 1-100 record and I wouldnt want him.
CONFRONT has a very worrying weight for a horse
without a recent run and I cant find a winner like him in
139 races and I think he is the wrong type. I cant have
HERON BAY down from 14f. MOHATHAB is out from a
maiden. DREAM LODGE is too exposed and has the
wrong preparation. ROAD TO LOVE is absent a very
long time for an exposed horse and he looks best
opposed. DEEP WINTER is a 4 year old filly. I looked
at 4yo fillies like her in the 139 races over 8f-9f-10f.
They only won 4 and when they ran this year they had
a poor 1-55 record. They also had a 0-50 record when
up in trip and I am not sold on DEEP WINTER. Neither
BAZERGAN or PROPONENT achieved enough last time.
PROPONENT won this race last year but that was then
and beaten 30 lengths on his debut this year is a big
worry much as the ground was wrong. I didnt find any
similar winner to EZDIYAAD coming from a 12f Group
race and I wasnt sure he was the right type.
SHORTLIST
VIVA VETTORI - KAY GEE BE - RAMONA CHASE
FOOLIN MYSELF - KING CHARLES
KING CHARLES is exposed and I dont like that but he
is only exposed by one run and is a borderline case. I
dont see him as well handicapped but he can win from
this rating. He was 3rd in this last year but had run at
Nad El Sheba last year. He's facing a fresh preparation
this year and fitness is not as guaranteed this year. He
ideally wants a bit further and I would be worried he may
need the run and is being laid out for Ascot.
FOOLIN MYSELF is very inexperienced. He beat a top
class horse in a maiden as a 2 year old back in 2007
and that has made people believe he is thrown in. I've
had a good look at him. Think he's well treated. I think
he dissapointed connections only coming 4th last time.
There were statistical excuses for him though and he
could come on for the run. I think the ground is maybe
a bit on the fast side for him. I think he is a strong and
serious runner but not without worries and personally
I see him more as a saver bet than a win bet.
Given all the issues I wasnt unhappy with the 2 horses
that came out best on only 4 renewals of this 9f race.
VIVA VETTORI and KAY GEE BE have a much better
chance than it may seem in this race. VIVA VETORI
does have some concerns with settling but simply
put he is too big a price and has too good a profile
to ignore and I would have to bet him in this race at
40/1 or more but he misses the shortlist
RAMONA CHASE has an excellent chance. He is
technically exposed but only just by one run so it
is far too harsh to ignore him on that statistic. His
last run at Epsom was when nothing at all went
right for the horse. He finished with a lot in hand
and he ran very well at this meeting last year off
a higher mark. I give him a chance of winning it
and from the best age and weight range I am
betting him.
KAY GEE BE
I have no problems with his profile and Paragraph 1
shows he is one of the best profiles in the race. The
Draw is good. Willie Jarvis has shut his yard down
recently but that was precautionary and he has said
he plans to "Hit the ground running" with his runners
of which KAY GEE BE is the first. I like the fact that
KAY GEE BE has upgraded stables late last year
and has been dropped 33lbs by the handicapper as
well. He runs well fresh. He won first time out as a
3 year old. He ran 2nd first time out aged 4 and has
won after a several months absence more than once.
He has just the right weight and having upgraded
yards he looks a very interesting runner at a huge
price considering he loves the ground.
SELECTION
* KAY GEE BE 25/1 Each Way Bet
* VIVA VETTORI 25/1 Win Bet
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NEWMARKET 2.30
STANJAMES.COM JOCKEY CLUB STAKES
(GROUP 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m4f
11/8 Spanish Moon, 7/4 Casual Conquest,
5/1 Bronze Cannon, 6/1 All The Aces, 33/1 Drill Sergeant.
Hard to read SPANISH MOON and how he will run after
going to Dubai. No horse that has run this year fitted the
profile of past winners doing that. I would rather go with
a seasonal debutant. I would see the strongest runners
CASUAL CONQUEST and ALL THE ACES but no negatives
in the race. ALL THE ACES is very similar to the 1997-98
winners but CASUAL CONQUEST has the smartest form.
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NEWMARKET 3.10
STANJAMES.COM 2000 GUINEAS STAKES (201ST RUNNING)
(GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m
7/2 Rip Van Winkle, 4/1 Delegator, 5/1 Mastercraftsman,
9/1 Sea The Stars, 10/1 Evasive, 10/1 Gan Amhras, 14/1
Cityscape, 20/1 Ashram, 20/1 Lord Shanakill, 20/1 Ouqba,
25/1 Finjaan, 33/1 Monitor Closely, 50/1 On Our Way, 80/1
Pure Poetry, 200/1 Imperial Guest, 200/1 Ocean's Minstrel.
SELECTION
Win Bet on RIP VAN WINKLE
Place Bet on DELEGATOR Evens or better
The 2000 Guineas is not a great trends race for me. I
see it as more of a race for Instinct. The usual dramas
and second guessing games about Aidan O Brien's 2
runners RIP VAN WINKLE and MASTERCRAFTSMAN
have been going on all Spring and Like many I have not
got a clue which is better and doubt many have. Johnny
Murtagh has chosen RIP VAN WINKLE despite an injury
scare. Looking at what I couldnt bet. CITYSCAPE was
beaten in a trial this year so thats not the best of signs.
The last 30 races at Newmarket over 8f show horses
drawn 1-2-3 as having a 1-84 record. Thats awful so
anything drawn very low is opposable so ASHRAM and
SEA THE STARS are out. No selection can come from
a handicap so OUQBA has to go and he wasnt even
topweight in that handicap. I'm ignoring all the 50/1 +
runners as well. How can you fancy a Guineas horse
that won just 1 of his last 5 runs so LORD SHANAKILL
is out. I dont know what to make of EVASIVE or mixed
messages coming out about his homework. I think the
horse is best opposed. GAN AMHRAS looks to have a
reasonable chance much as he is hard to read and I
dont know much about him. DELEGATOR was very
impressive last time winning the Craven and much as
his trainer is Bullish he is always Bullish and can often
overrate his horses. It wasnt hard to be impressed by
his profile and form. I prefer two here in DELEGATOR
and RIP VAN WINKLE. As both are odds against to
Place I see the best strategy being a win and place
bet in the race
SELECTION
Win Bet on RIP VAN WINKLE
Place Bet on DELEGATOR Evens or better
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NEWMARKET 3.45
STANJAMES.COM PALACE HOUSE STAKES
(GROUP 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)5f
4/1 Borderlescott, 9/2 Amour Propre, 6/1 Chief Editor,
6/1 Dandy Man, 8/1 Strike The Deal, 12/1 Fat Boy, 12/1
Moorhouse Lad, 20/1 Hogmaneigh, 20/1 Judge 'n Jury,
20/1 King's Apostle, 25/1 Rowe Park, 33/1 Hoh Hoh Hoh,
33/1 Matsunosuke, Rievaulx World, 100/1 Group Therapy
200/1 Ajigolo.
* Palace House Stakes is a Group 3 race over 5f
* There has been 21 renewals since 1987
* RIEVAULX WORLD didnt do enough last time out
* Exposed horses racing first time out struggled
* They had a 1-34 record in the last 21 years
* That sole winner was a 20/1 shock
* MOORHOUSE LAD fails that
* MOORHOUSE LAD is drawn in Stall 1 which may hurt
* He is also a "stuffy" horse and may need the run
* BORDERLESCOTT is exposed first time out
* Only 1 past winner was as old as him anyway
* DANDY MAN is exposed first time out
* Several look outclassed in this race
* AJIGOLO -GROUP THERAPY look too weak
* MATSUNOSUKE has the wrong preparation
* No past winner races so regularly this year
* HOH HOH HOH is in the same boat
* He was well beaten in this race last year
* JUDGE ´N JURY also has the wrong preparation
* ROWE PARK may lack the class
* He was well beaten in this race last year
* STRIKE THE DEAL is a 4yo seasonal debutant
* None of these dropped from a 6f race
* His lack of form at 5f would worry me
* FAT BOY also looks a horse that wants 6f
* He is said to need the race
* HOGMANEIGH has a small chance
* I cant find a winner that was very similar to him
* KING´S APOSTLE is said to need the run
* His Penalty puts me off a bit
SHORTLIST
AMOUR PROPRE - CHIEF EDITOR
DANDY MAN - STRIKE THE DEAL
All 4 of these have one factor to overcome
but I feel one will win despite that problem.
* AMOUR PROPRE is less experienced than any past winner
* CHIEF EDITOR looks interesting
* He won the 5f Handicap at Newbury 2 weeks ago
* Only 1 past winner came from a Handicap
* That horse won the same race though at Newbury
* Michael Jarvis has improved him this year
* He upgraded stables over the winter
* I backed him at Newbury and it was Good to soft
* He needed every yard to get up and win
* His problem is Fast ground and 5f
* I can see him leaving it too late
* STRIKE THE DEAL has to show he copes with 5f
* DANDY MAN has to win first time when exposed
* He is "Only just" exposed though
* Given all these issues I see two options
* I want to take the younger horses over the older ones
SELECTION - AMOUR PROPRE
SAVER - STRIKE THE DEAL
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THIRSK 4.15
TOTESPORT.COM THIRSK HUNT CUP
(HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-100) 1m
6/1 Charlie Tipple, 6/1 Medici Pearl, 13/2 Flawed Genius,
8/1 Majuro, 10/1 Ansells Pride, 10/1 Bencoolen, 10/1 Kings
Point, 10/1 Mangham, 12/1 Osteopathic Remedy, 14/1 Just
Bond, 14/1 The Osteopath, 14/1 Wasp, 20/1 Webbow, 25/1
Ilie Nastase, 33/1 Green Park, 33/1 Summon Up Theblood.
SELECTION - FLAWED GENIUS
SAVER - BENCOOLEN
* The Hunt Cup is a Mile Handicap for 0-94 rated horses
* Exposed horses won 7 of the last 20 renewals
* Only a certain type of Exposed horse won though
* Those that had under 2 runs that season struggled
* These horses had a 1-81 record
* THE OSTEOPATH - GREEN PARK fail that
* CHARLIE TIPPLE also fail that
* The only Exposed horses I'd want need 2 recent runs
* Exposed horses aged 4 or 5 have a 0-67 record
* MAJURO - MEDICI PEARL fail that
* CHARLIE TIPPLE - OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY also fail that
* Exposed horses that come from 7f or shorter were 0-50
* KINGS POINT - OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY fail that
* GREEN PARK also fails it and cant win from 5f
* Exposed horses with 9st 1lbs or more are 1-75
* MAJURO - MEDICI PEARL - KINGS POINT fail that
* Horses aged 8 or more are 0-25
* KINGS POINT fails that
* 6 of the 21 winners had 1 run this season
* Those beaten over 10 lengths in that run struggled
* They had a 0-42 record and look opposable
* They may need more runs before being in form
* MANGHAM fails that and is exposed
* I have problems with WASP's 62 day break
* Exposed and a 7 year old thats a long break
* I cant find a similar winner in similar races
* I dont want WASP with that absence
* I would make all the above Negatives
* Some less impressive stats follow
POSSIBLES
* WEBBOW is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* We have had 1 winner that did that (20/1 shock)
* Given that WEBBOW is trained by Nigel Tinkler
* I wouldnt givehim the benefit of the doubt
* Horses that had 1 run this year won 6 renewals
* None were aged 6 or more (0-29)
* ANSELLS PRIDE - THE OSTEOPATH fail that
* THE OSTEOPATH was well beaten in last years race
* He has more weight this year as well
* Horses that came from 7 races have 5 recent wins
* Those with 13 or more runs coming from 7f were 1-73
* Last years winner had 13 runs doing this
* He was a Judgement call and may have been forgiven
* FLAWED GENIUS has 14 runs and comes from 7f
* He is also a horse you have to decide about
* No Hunt Cup winner dropped from 10f or more to win
* BENCOOLEN - ANSELLS PRIDE - ILIE NASTASE fail that
* Horses with 4 or more times that season were 1-52
* Those that didnt run within a week were 0-41
* MAJURO - FLAWED GENIUS fail that
* I cant find a similar winner to ILIE NASTASE
STRONG PROFILES
ANSELLS PRIDE
SUMMON UP THEBLOOD
JUST BOND
FLAWED GENIUS
BENCOOLEN
* ANSELLS PRIDE only fails luke warm statistics
* Difficult to judge him down in trip just 4 days ago
* I wouldnt be shocked if he won
* I would have him about 3rd 4th 5th best
* SUMMON UP THEBLOOD is from a 3yo handicap
* I dont have a problem with horses like that
* He closely resembles the 1989 and 2003 winners
* He is just a bit more exposed than those winners
* From his stable I just feel he is opposable
* JUST BOND is exposed but is the right type
* He would have a chance in this race
* I couldnt offer a strong negative against him
* FLAWED GENIUS fails a couple of minor stats
* Generally his flaws are forgiveable
* BENCOOLEN was beaten over 10 lengths 10 days ago
* He also dropped from a 10f handicap
* I looked at 360 similar races at this time of year
* Horses that did exactly the same as BENCOOLEN
* I found a 1-60 record which isnt great
* No past winner of this race had his profile
* That said he was hampered last time out
* Had he not been he would have passed that statistic
* He was badly held up when denied a run
* Watch the video of his last run at Epsom
* He finished with a ton in hand that day
SELECTION - JUST BOND
SAVER - BENCOOLEN
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NEWMARKET 4.20
BEST ODDS AT STAN JAMES HANDICAP
(CLASS 2) (3yo,0-100) 7f
5/4 Infiraad, 9/2 Calligrapher, 9/2 Firebet, 10/1 Aunt Nicola,
12/1 Folsomprisonblues, 14/1 Quanah Parker, 14/1 Wildcat
Wizard, 20/1 Indian Art.
* This is 7f Handicap over 7F for horses rated 0-98
* Newmarket has had 17 renewals of this race
* Only 3 of the 17 winners were seasonal debutants
* All 3 seasonal debutants were female
* Male horses that ran first time out were 0-46
* QUANAH PARKER - CALLIGRAPHER fail that
* Seasonal debutants struggled with under 5 starts
* Those that had under 5 runs were 0-47 in these races
* AUNT NICOLA -QUANAH PARKER - CALLIGRAPHER fail that
* 3 fillies won this first time out
* Those with under 5 runs though were 0-18
* AUNT NICOLA fails that
* INDIAN ART didnt do enough for me last time
* He has 1 run this year and and was well beaten
* Horses with1 run that year won 5 renewals
* Those that had 7 or more runs were just 1-56 though
* INDIAN ART - FIREBET - WILDCAT WIZARD all fail that
* No horse with 1 run this year dropped from 8f
* All 25 that tried lost and FIREBET fails that
* I like the profiles of just two runners
* INFIRAAD - FOLSOMPRISONBLUES
* FOLSOMPRISONBLUES doesnty really mirror any past winner
* He is ok but I would have prefered a better last run
* INFIRAAD has two runs as two past winners did
SELECTION
Forecast INFIRAAD to beat FOLSOMPRISONBLUES
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THIRSK 4.50
TOTESPORTGAMES.COM HANDICAP
(CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-80) 5f
9/2 Sandwith, 5/1 Bahamian Ballet, 6/1 Le Toreador,
8/1 Invincible Lad, 10/1 Dig Deep, 12/1 Bo McGinty,
12/1 Legal Eagle, 12/1 Mambo Spirit, 14/1 Artsu,
Mandurah, 20/1 Divine Spirit, 20/1 Equuleus Pictor,
20/1 Glasshoughton, King Of Swords, 33/1 Blazing
Heights, 33/1 Highland Warrior.
* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-80 rated horses
* Thirsk has had 47 similar races in May before
* This is one of the worst tracks for seasonal debutants
* In the 47 Thirsk races they have a 1-132 record
* Thirsk have had 66 races in April and May like this
* Seasonal debutants were awful
* Those with 9 + runs had a 2-191 record
* I have to oppose seasonal debutants in this race
* INVINCIBLE LAD - ARTSU -EQUULEUS PICTOR fail that
* GLASSHOUGHTON - KING OF SWORDS also fail that
* BLAZING HEIGHTS -DIG DEEP- DIVINE SPIRIT also fail that
* The Draw bothers me here over 5f
* Since 2007 there has been 27 races here at 5f
* Stalls 1 and 2 had a poor 1-46 record
* I would be wary about the very low drawn horses
* INVINCIBLE LAD is drawn 2 and already rejected
* LE TOREADOR is drawn 1 and thats a worry
* LEGAL EAGLE is out with 1 run this year and 37 days off
* No past winner run this year and had that break
* He also comes from a Claimer
* None of the 66 winners did that
* Horses aged 8 or more had a 2-95 record
* When coming from a 5f race that was 1-68
* BO MCGINTY fails that and he isnt for me
* I have always seen him as a small field horse
* HIGHLAND WARRIOR also fails that
* MANDURAH had an unimpressive profile
* Horses like him had a 2-99 record in the 66 races
* Both winners were high weights
* I am neutral about his profile but its not impressive
STRONG PROFILES
* SANDWITH is well drawn and in form
* His last run puts him in with a chance
* He hasnt won on fast ground before
* He may just prefer it slower
* LE TOREADOR is fine but just his draw worries me
* BAHAMIAN BALLET is similar to 2 winners
* I would prefer more runs this year though
* MAMBO SPIRIT has a chance and is like some winners
* Again I would prefer more runs this year
SELECTION
MAMBO SPIRIT
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THIRSK 5.20
TOTESPORTBINGO.COM HANDICAP
(CLASS 5) (3yo,0-75) 6f
4/1 Hysterical Lady, 4/1 Paddy Bear, 11/2 Captain Scooby,
6/1 Blue Noodles, 6/1 Raimond Ridge, 7/1 Liberty Diamond,
10/1 Moonlight Affair, 12/1 Legal Legacy, 20/1 Bermondsey Bob.
* This is a 3yo handicap over 6f
* April and May have seen 138 similar races
* I want to oppose HYSTERICAL LADY
* She is a filly that comes from a 5f race
* In 138 races Fillies doing this were 3-197
* Those that ran in May had a 0-115 record
* Those fillies with under 5 runs were 0-42
* Those like her with 1-2-3 runs this year were 0-84
* Those like her without a run in 2 weeks were 1-128
* Those like her that were 1-2-3-4 last time out were 0-58
* Those like her with under 2 career wins were 0-152
* HYSTERICAL LADY has to be opposed
* LEGAL LEGACY isnt for me out of the weights
* Felt he had an unimpressive profile
* LIBERTY DIAMOND is a filly from a 2yo maiden
* The odd one won but they scored badly
* Fillies were 0-20 in the 4 renewals of this race
* 4 of the 138 winners were fillies from Nurseries
* None of them had under 4 runs though (0-20)
* MOONLIGHT AFFAIR fails that
* MOONLIGHT AFFAIR isnt top of my list
* I couldnt rule out RAIMOND RIDGE
* He is on the exposed side though with 14 runs
* He is also on a career high mark
* All his wins have come on the All Weather as well
* I would worry about fast ground for him as well
* RAIMOND RIDGE isnt for me
* BLUE NOODLES comes from a 7f handicap
* I looked at horses that ran within a month doing that
* The record was 9-167
* However none came from a Class 6 handicap
* Those 1-2-3-4-5 last time in 7f handicaps were 1-66
* Those 6th or worse in 7f handicaps were 8-91
* That suggets thye following
* Better to be beaten far in a classier race
* Than to run well in a cheap race
* BLUE NOODLES misses the shortlist
STRONG PROFILES
* BERMONDSEY BOB has a reasonable profile
* I dont see anything really wrong with him
* CAPTAIN SCOOBY has a strong profile
* Placing 3rd in a much better race last time
* PADDY BEAR has just won a 3yo maiden
* The runner up has come out and won as well
* I liked his profile and he looks a big runner
* He quickened well last time out
* Last years winner came from the same maiden
* Well drawn he looks good enough to win this
SELECTION - PADDY BEAR
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NEWMARKET 5.30
CALL STAN JAMES 08000 351135 HANDICAP
(CLASS 2) (3yo,0-105) 1m
11/4 Ave, 3/1 Photographic, 7/2 Baariq, 4/1 Good Again,
10/1 Shampagne, 12/1 Gaily Noble, 14/1 Akhenaten.
This is a 3yo handicap over 8f. Strange trends
in so much that I've to divide these into Three
different categories. These are "Negatives" as
well as "Dont Know's" and "Possibles". First of
all my negatives. Newmarket's had 27 of these
3yo handicaps at this time of year. In these 27
handicaps I looked at horses that came from 7f
races last year. AVE and BAARIQ do this. Horses
that came from 7f races last year had a bad 1-73
record and those that had under 5 runs as these
both do had a 0-48 record. It is why I'm making
AVE and BAARIQ negatives. The horses that I'm
calling Possibles are horses that I dont see any
obvious negatives about. They all seem to have
some sort of chance but none of them neatly fits
a profile of a Past winner. Thats why they have
not been made Positives. These horses include
AKHENATEN - GOOD AGAIN - SHAMPAGNE and
GAILY NOBLE. This only leaves the "Dont Know"
list and thats PHOTOGRAPHIC as he has ran
just once before and only 1 horse tried that
and came 3rd so statistically its inconclusive.
SELECTION - PHOTOGRAPHIC
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