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#1 - Quote - Permalink
test post 1
Posted Jan 21, 2020 - 03:38 AM:
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#2 - Quote - Permalink
Posted Jan 21, 2020 - 09:26 AM:

But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.

  • Serena Williams is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 15.53% chance of winning the whole thing, with Ashleigh Barty next at 15.3%. The 3rd most likely is Karolina Pliskova with 9.89% and Naomi Osaka 4th with 9.11%
  • Kiki Bertens has the easiest overall draw, as she is 1.58 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Madison Keys has a tough draw. She is 1.28 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected
  • The toughest 1st round draw went to Lesia Tsurenko, as she's 42.13 percentage points less likely to win than a player of her rank is expected to win. Kateryna Bondarenko got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's 30.93 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than her ranking would expect.

Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.

# Name ELO R1 % R2 % R3 % R4 % R5 % R6 % R7 %
1 Ashleigh Barty 1885 84.73% 71.63% 59.23% 47.14% 35.12% 22.02% 15.30%
2 Lesia Tsurenko 1587 15.27% 7.62% 3.65% 1.56% 0.57% 0.15% 0.04%
3 Polona Hercog 1549 40.79% 7.15% 3.06% 1.16% 0.37% 0.08% 0.02%
4 Rebecca Peterson 1614 59.21% 13.60% 7.02% 3.26% 1.31% 0.37% 0.13%
5 Aliaksandra Sasnovich 1530 53.58% 19.01% 3.80% 1.34% 0.40% 0.08% 0.02%
6 Greet Minnen 1505 46.42% 15.02% 2.71% 0.87% 0.24% 0.04% 0.01%
7 Bernada Pera 1543 31.33% 16.78% 3.54% 1.31% 0.41% 0.09% 0.02%
8 Elena Rybakina 1679 68.67% 49.19% 17.00% 9.41% 4.61% 1.66% 0.70%
9 Alison Riske 1650 63.06% 46.91% 22.93% 7.95% 3.58% 1.16% 0.45%
10 Wang Yafan 1557 36.94% 23.27% 8.47% 2.12% 0.70% 0.16% 0.04%
11 Viktorija Golubic 1482 55.53% 17.68% 4.84% 0.90% 0.22% 0.04% 0.01%
12 Zhu Lin 1443 44.47% 12.14% 2.83% 0.44% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00%
13 Julia Gorges 1658 66.45% 32.76% 20.06% 7.13% 3.28% 1.09% 0.43%
14 Viktoria Kuzmova 1539 33.55% 11.39% 5.15% 1.20% 0.37% 0.08% 0.02%
15 Christina McHale 1483 21.52% 6.88% 2.61% 0.49% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00%
16 Petra Martic 1708 78.48% 48.97% 33.11% 13.72% 7.24% 2.87% 1.32%
17 Madison Keys 1756 69.78% 53.90% 40.02% 24.47% 12.13% 5.55% 2.93%
18 Daria Kasatkina 1611 30.22% 18.08% 10.12% 4.27% 1.37% 0.38% 0.13%
19 Magda Linette 1576 64.08% 20.44% 10.46% 3.96% 1.12% 0.27% 0.08%
20 Arantxa Rus 1476 35.92% 7.58% 2.83% 0.75% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00%
21 Nao Hibino 1486 42.60% 14.87% 3.99% 1.09% 0.22% 0.04% 0.01%
22 Peng Shuai 1537 57.40% 24.01% 7.83% 2.60% 0.63% 0.13% 0.03%
23 Margarita Gasparyan 1537 37.04% 19.69% 6.42% 2.13% 0.52% 0.11% 0.03%
24 Maria Sakkari 1629 62.96% 41.42% 18.32% 8.18% 2.79% 0.84% 0.30%
25 Ekaterina Alexandrova 1655 69.89% 45.98% 21.56% 10.93% 4.05% 1.34% 0.52%
26 Jil Teichmann 1509 30.11% 13.69% 4.07% 1.30% 0.28% 0.05% 0.01%
27 Kaia Kanepi 1566 59.03% 25.84% 9.34% 3.65% 0.99% 0.23% 0.07%
28 Barbora Krejcikova 1503 40.97% 14.49% 4.23% 1.32% 0.28% 0.05% 0.01%
29 Paula Badosa 1476 52.59% 11.24% 3.88% 1.09% 0.21% 0.03% 0.01%
30 Johanna Larsson 1458 47.41% 9.38% 3.03% 0.80% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00%
31 Katerina Siniakova 1528 20.45% 12.01% 4.98% 1.71% 0.40% 0.08% 0.02%
32 Petra Kvitova 1764 79.55% 67.37% 48.90% 31.76% 16.08% 7.54% 4.07%
33 Naomi Osaka 1833 87.38% 74.88% 57.32% 42.03% 24.22% 14.42% 9.11%
34 Marie Bouzkova 1497 12.62% 5.93% 1.97% 0.62% 0.12% 0.02% 0.01%
35 Zheng Saisai 1553 63.01% 13.73% 5.54% 2.11% 0.51% 0.13% 0.03%
36 Anna Kalinskaya 1460 36.99% 5.46% 1.57% 0.43% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
37 Venus Williams 1688 65.65% 43.91% 17.92% 9.99% 3.90% 1.59% 0.69%
38 Coco Gauff 1576 34.35% 17.69% 5.02% 2.06% 0.54% 0.15% 0.04%
39 Sorana Cirstea 1531 41.52% 14.04% 3.38% 1.19% 0.26% 0.06% 0.01%
40 Barbora Strycova 1590 58.48% 24.36% 7.27% 3.11% 0.87% 0.25% 0.08%
41 Sloane Stephens 1615 55.29% 35.01% 15.54% 5.32% 1.62% 0.52% 0.18%
42 Zhang Shuai 1578 44.71% 26.06% 10.37% 3.12% 0.83% 0.23% 0.07%
43 Samantha Stosur 1543 58.17% 24.53% 8.75% 2.31% 0.54% 0.13% 0.03%
44 Caty McNally 1486 41.83% 14.39% 4.21% 0.89% 0.16% 0.03% 0.01%
45 Ann Li 1489 52.10% 13.08% 5.09% 1.09% 0.20% 0.04% 0.01%
46 Lizette Cabrera 1475 47.90% 11.36% 4.20% 0.84% 0.15% 0.03% 0.01%
47 Martina Trevisan 1447 15.78% 7.09% 2.36% 0.42% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
48 Sofia Kenin 1738 84.22% 68.47% 49.48% 24.49% 11.09% 5.22% 2.63%
49 Johanna Konta 1729 75.20% 55.19% 32.92% 14.25% 7.04% 3.24% 1.59%
50 Ons Jabeur 1537 24.80% 12.00% 4.04% 0.94% 0.24% 0.06% 0.01%
51 Madison Brengle 1458 31.87% 7.22% 1.79% 0.30% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
52 Caroline Garcia 1590 68.13% 25.59% 10.37% 2.91% 0.93% 0.27% 0.08%
53 Kristie Ahn 1516 25.76% 9.02% 2.92% 0.62% 0.15% 0.03% 0.01%
54 Caroline Wozniacki 1700 74.24% 44.21% 24.91% 9.91% 4.51% 1.90% 0.86%
55 Kaja Juvan 1489 25.51% 7.37% 2.16% 0.42% 0.09% 0.02% 0.00%
56 Dayana Yastremska 1675 74.49% 39.40% 20.90% 7.73% 3.27% 1.28% 0.53%
57 Wang Qiang 1633 71.75% 44.89% 13.19% 5.86% 2.17% 0.74% 0.27%
58 Pauline Parmentier 1471 28.25% 11.27% 1.83% 0.45% 0.09% 0.02% 0.00%
59 Fiona Ferro 1503 40.51% 15.59% 2.88% 0.81% 0.18% 0.04% 0.01%
60 Alison Van Uytvanck 1570 59.49% 28.25% 6.68% 2.41% 0.71% 0.19% 0.06%
61 Tamara Zidansek 1499 55.70% 8.01% 3.14% 0.87% 0.19% 0.04% 0.01%
62 Han Na-Lae 1459 44.30% 5.33% 1.82% 0.42% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
63 Anastasia Potapova 1519 11.33% 6.28% 2.64% 0.79% 0.19% 0.04% 0.01%
64 Serena Williams 1877 88.67% 80.38% 67.83% 51.32% 34.94% 22.67% 15.53%
65 Belinda Bencic 1726 82.67% 56.23% 35.74% 20.69% 11.60% 5.65% 2.25%
66 Anna Karolina Schmiedlova 1455 17.33% 5.52% 1.55% 0.37% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
67 Liudmila Samsonova 1498 31.47% 8.58% 2.85% 0.80% 0.22% 0.05% 0.01%
68 Jelena Ostapenko 1633 68.53% 29.67% 15.15% 6.85% 2.99% 1.09% 0.31%
69 Sara Sorribes Tormo 1443 27.29% 7.09% 1.63% 0.37% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
70 Veronika Kudermetova 1614 72.71% 34.08% 14.63% 6.24% 2.56% 0.87% 0.23%
71 Astra Sharma 1479 23.62% 8.96% 2.38% 0.62% 0.16% 0.03% 0.00%
72 Anett Kontaveit 1683 76.38% 49.86% 26.07% 13.56% 6.81% 2.92% 1.01%
73 Donna Vekic 1634 41.73% 25.56% 11.73% 5.38% 2.35% 0.86% 0.25%
74 Maria Sharapova 1692 58.27% 40.05% 21.47% 11.56% 5.95% 2.63% 0.93%
75 Alize Cornet 1586 62.42% 24.07% 9.56% 3.76% 1.41% 0.44% 0.10%
76 Monica Niculescu 1498 37.58% 10.33% 3.02% 0.86% 0.23% 0.05% 0.01%
77 Iga Swiatek 1560 67.70% 21.03% 8.43% 3.04% 1.04% 0.29% 0.06%
78 Timea Babos 1432 32.30% 5.83% 1.43% 0.31% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
79 Carla Suarez Navarro 1596 29.36% 17.78% 7.99% 3.24% 1.26% 0.40% 0.10%
80 Aryna Sabalenka 1748 70.64% 55.36% 36.36% 22.35% 13.19% 6.82% 2.91%
81 Elise Mertens 1677 82.12% 57.95% 35.18% 17.02% 8.42% 3.56% 1.20%
82 Danka Kovinic 1412 17.88% 6.13% 1.61% 0.30% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
83 Kristyna Pliskova 1531 51.69% 18.92% 7.71% 2.33% 0.71% 0.18% 0.03%
84 Heather Watson 1519 48.31% 16.99% 6.66% 1.92% 0.56% 0.13% 0.02%
85 Catherine Bellis 1584 67.56% 30.68% 14.35% 5.22% 1.92% 0.59% 0.14%
86 Tatjana Maria 1456 32.44% 9.46% 2.89% 0.65% 0.14% 0.03% 0.00%
87 Kirsten Flipkens 1502 28.51% 12.63% 4.56% 1.23% 0.33% 0.07% 0.01%
88 Karolina Muchova 1661 71.49% 47.22% 27.04% 12.53% 5.93% 2.38% 0.76%
89 Danielle Collins 1629 77.86% 41.04% 16.87% 8.64% 3.70% 1.33% 0.38%
90 Vitalia Diatchenko 1411 22.14% 5.34% 1.02% 0.24% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
91 Yulia Putintseva 1590 44.72% 22.75% 8.30% 3.80% 1.43% 0.45% 0.11%
92 Hsieh Su-Wei 1627 55.28% 30.87% 12.60% 6.41% 2.73% 0.97% 0.27%
93 Harriet Dart 1443 47.98% 8.10% 2.29% 0.63% 0.13% 0.02% 0.00%
94 Misaki Doi 1457 52.02% 9.35% 2.79% 0.81% 0.18% 0.03% 0.00%
95 Jennifer Brady 1564 21.93% 14.43% 6.31% 2.68% 0.92% 0.26% 0.06%
96 Simona Halep 1785 78.07% 68.12% 49.82% 35.58% 22.81% 12.92% 6.15%
97 Elina Svitolina 1774 82.60% 68.67% 47.79% 30.59% 17.71% 10.70% 4.94%
98 Katie Boulter 1504 17.40% 8.88% 2.97% 0.89% 0.22% 0.06% 0.01%
99 Lauren Davis 1514 55.52% 13.33% 4.63% 1.44% 0.37% 0.10% 0.02%
100 Leylah Annie Fernandez 1475 44.48% 9.12% 2.74% 0.74% 0.16% 0.04% 0.01%
101 Garbine Muguruza 1679 74.84% 46.06% 22.21% 11.50% 5.23% 2.48% 0.84%
102 Shelby Rogers 1489 25.16% 8.85% 2.33% 0.67% 0.16% 0.04% 0.01%
103 Ajla Tomljanovic 1561 41.36% 16.68% 5.66% 2.08% 0.64% 0.21% 0.04%
104 Anastasija Sevastova 1621 58.64% 28.41% 11.67% 5.17% 1.98% 0.78% 0.21%
105 Amanda Anisimova 1649 68.88% 48.73% 22.84% 10.18% 4.25% 1.84% 0.56%
106 Zarina Diyas 1511 31.12% 16.25% 5.01% 1.39% 0.36% 0.09% 0.02%
107 Jasmine Paolini 1486 47.41% 16.04% 4.54% 1.14% 0.27% 0.06% 0.01%
108 Anna Blinkova 1504 52.59% 18.98% 5.72% 1.55% 0.39% 0.10% 0.02%
109 Kateryna Bondarenko 1459 56.09% 11.72% 4.07% 0.92% 0.19% 0.04% 0.01%
110 Arina Rodionova 1416 43.91% 7.66% 2.27% 0.42% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
111 Irina-Camelia Begu 1470 16.36% 8.87% 3.21% 0.75% 0.16% 0.04% 0.01%
112 Kiki Bertens 1753 83.64% 71.74% 52.35% 30.56% 16.86% 9.72% 4.21%
113 Marketa Vondrousova 1706 62.02% 42.04% 27.80% 13.38% 6.68% 3.41% 1.27%
114 Svetlana Kuznetsova 1620 37.98% 21.55% 11.90% 4.48% 1.73% 0.68% 0.19%
115 Antonia Lottner 1457 28.60% 6.48% 2.20% 0.45% 0.09% 0.02% 0.00%
116 Camila Giorgi 1616 71.40% 29.94% 16.36% 6.07% 2.31% 0.90% 0.24%
117 Kateryna Kozlova 1490 56.60% 18.71% 5.54% 1.30% 0.31% 0.07% 0.01%
118 Priscilla Hon 1444 43.40% 12.03% 2.95% 0.58% 0.11% 0.02% 0.00%
119 Elisabetta Cocciaretto 1485 26.29% 13.73% 3.99% 0.92% 0.21% 0.05% 0.01%
120 Angelique Kerber 1664 73.71% 55.53% 29.25% 12.56% 5.58% 2.53% 0.81%
121 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 1641 69.29% 44.48% 16.20% 8.21% 3.39% 1.43% 0.42%
122 Nina Stojanovic 1500 30.71% 13.63% 2.96% 0.95% 0.23% 0.06% 0.01%
123 Taylor Townsend 1513 43.44% 16.68% 3.82% 1.29% 0.34% 0.09% 0.02%
124 Jessica Pegula 1559 56.56% 25.21% 6.90% 2.73% 0.85% 0.27% 0.06%
125 Laura Siegemund 1566 52.39% 12.00% 5.78% 2.34% 0.75% 0.24% 0.05%
126 Coco Vandeweghe 1550 47.61% 10.17% 4.66% 1.78% 0.54% 0.16% 0.03%
127 Kristina Mladenovic 1623 22.56% 13.35% 7.48% 3.60% 1.40% 0.56% 0.15%
128 Karolina Pliskova 1837 77.44% 64.48% 52.21% 39.35% 26.45% 18.10% 9.89%
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