https://forumcopy.mathematician-betting.co.uk en-us Mathematician 3433Friday January 17th5 Previews 0 Account Bet 0 Highlighted Bet No Staked Bet Today's MessageNot many previews this week Only had 10 i https://forumcopy.mathematician-betting.co.uk/comments.php?id=57099 Fri, 17 Jan 2020 09:45:01 GMT https://forumcopy.mathematician-betting.co.uk/link.php?action=detail&id=57099
Friday January 17th

5 Previews
0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet

No Staked Bet



Today's Message

Not many previews this week
Only had 10 in the last 3 days
Have found few races I liked

Which could be my own fault
It could be the time of year
Maybe there was little to find

Lingfield 12.30
Chepstow 1.10
Musselburgh 2.25
Lingfield 3.40
Dundalk 5.00

Don't want to stake any bets
No confidence in these cards
The message isn't sharp enough
Feel we should back off today
Return to the account tomorrow

Pretty insignificant message
Don't see me having many bets
Those I do will be just playful

No short priced horses today
The selections all 5/1 or more
So hard to predict the outcome

More interested in Saturday
Trying to raise my game there
Not a day to go on the attack



Thursday's Summary

Shorter message with one bet
PUCHITA beaten into 5th place
Expected more but in hindsight
I think she had some excuses
There was a front runner bias
There was a high draw bias too
Both 1st and 2nd drawn high
Made the running stayed there
PUCHITA was given a bit to do
Stayed on well made her move
But away from the main action
Lots of the earlier races there
Were won by the front runners
Horses off the pace struggled
Not an excuse an observation
PUCHITA up against this bias
Drawn in the middle just failed
She is entered next on Tuesday
I still she is about to win a race
One of those losers I'd respect
And consider her for next week



PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Lingfield 12.30

3/1 Axel Jacklin, 100/30 Prince Rock, 7/2 Brockey Rise
9/2 N Over J, 7/1 Billyoakes, 8/1 The British Lion
50/1 Conqueress.

7f Handicap

Not a very friendly race
With just the 7 runners
And 6 we can not rule out

N OVER J has raced once in 87 days
AXEL JACKLIN raced once in 139 days

Number of runs
In the previous 12 weeks

6 Brockey Rise
5 Billyoakes
5 Prince Rock
5 The British Lion
1 Axel Jacklin
1 N Over J
1 Conqueress

The horses with just 1 run
In the previous 12 weeks
Could be at a disadvantage
Against horses with 5-6 races
I would stay with those types

Number of runs
In the previous 4 weeks

3 Billyoakes
2 Brockey Rise
1 Prince Rock
1 The British Lion
1 N Over J
0 Axel Jacklin
0 Conqueress

BILLYOAKES has most recent runs
I like his absence only two days ago
BROCKELY RISE ran in that race
I like both horses with recent runs

PRINCE ROCK is respected
He would be my 3rd choice

Selection

£8 Win Bet BILLYOAKES 6/1

£2 Win Bet BROCKELY RISE 4/1





Chepstow 1.10

4/1 The Ogle Gogle Man, 11/2 Pres, 6/1 Alminar
6/1 Hugo's Reflection, 8/1 Adherence, Lac Sacre,
8/1 Troed Y Melin, 10/1 On The Road, 16/1 Big Meadow
20/1 Silent Steps, 25/1 Alberto's Dream.

3m Handicap Chase

The 3 past winners of this
Had 12 or fewer chase runs
Had 11st 3lbs or more

Think the best plan here
Stay with unexposed chasers

Number of Chase runs

30 Lac Sacre
18 Big Meadow
18 Alberto's Dream
17 Silent Steps
14 The Ogle Gogle Man
13 On The Road
5 Hugo's Reflection
5 Alminar
4 Adherence
3 Pres
2 Troed Y Melin

LAC SACRE with 30 chase runs
Far more exposed than the others
He also has topweight to deal with
BIG MEADOW is quite exposed
ALBERTO'S DREAM is as well
SILENT STEPS has 17 chase runs
More than any previous winner
And a mare who pulled up last time out

ALMINAR has 5 chase runs
Thats fine but another issue worries me
He has the combination of two things
Only 1 run this season
Carrying 12st in weight
He is only a 7 year old as well

175 similar races in January
Horses aged 7 or younger
Having just 1 run that season
Have a modest 1-37 record
That sole winning horse
Had less weight than he does
Had a shorter absence than him
ALMINAR could be vulnerable
Beaten in this last year with less weight
Has the least experienced jockey as well

ADHERENCE has 4 chase runs
Fell early in 2 of his 4 races
Feel there are safer choices
And he is drifting very badly

No strong objections to the rest

HUGOS REFLECTION has a chance
But has to prove his stamina as well
Won last time but not raced in 38 days

TROED Y MELIN has 2 chase starts
As he unseated before the first fence
He has actually had only 1 chase run
That makes him the least experienced
Bottomweight so also the least classy
His official rating of only 94
Puts him 8lbs lower than all the others
He was 66/1 on his chasing debut

THE OGLE OGLE MAN is a positive
Much as his numbers are quite static
And he may not have much improvement

ON THE ROAD also shortlistable

PRES is the selection

Risky with 3 chase runs
But he is the only 6 year old
2 years younger than the others
Similar horses scored well

Horses aged 6
Under 4 chase runs
Under 9 career runs
Running within 7 weeks
Coming from 2m 4f +
Carrying 11st 3lbs or more
Have a 6-17 record

PRES shares this 6-17 record

Want him on the staking
Not the biggest of horses
Would worry me in a race like this
But this is a drop in class here

Going for a win bet and savers
Rather than trust him each way

Stop Pres

PRES is a non runner
Going with this bet instead

Selection

£4.00 Each Way ON THE ROAD 8/1

£2.00 Win Bet THE OGLE OGLE MAN 5/1




Musselburgh 2.25

4/5 Smart Lass, 4/1 Winfola, 11/2 Royal Cosmic
8/1 Dieu Benisse, Set In Stone, 12/1 Flood Defence
20/1 Movin'on Up, 66/1 Shabba Dada Do.

Mares Novice Hurdle

SMART LASS is a 5yo
Only has 1 hurdle start
He has opponents here
Who are older than he has
With more hurdling experience

She damsire worries me as well
Stamina index of only 6.9 furlongs
There are also a few here
Who had far better flat ratings
Going to oppose her each way

WINFOLA has no hurdling form
Normally 25 runs on the flat
Would make he a negative here
But these were French races
Doesn't make her a positive
With no hurdling experience
And an absence on softer ground
Felt she was too risky as well

January and February
Mares Novice Hurdles
Distances of 2m 6f or less
No horses have won
With over 25 career starts
ROYAL COSMIC has 36 runs
SET IN STONE has 30 runs
Both well established flat horses
None of these types have won

DIEU BENISSE unseated last time
Not ideal but she has positives
She brings handicap form into this
Has a National hunt background
She has at least won a hurdle race

Selection

DIEU BENISSE 5/1

Each Way




Lingfield 3.40

6/4 Rhubarb Bikini, 4/1 Aventuriere,
5/1 Gregory K 9/2 Bentley Wood, 8/1 Angel On High
33/1 Cafe Milano, 33/1 Stealth Command
66/1 Rock Of Pensax.

10f Novice

14 similar races in January

GREGORY K is unraced
Best guess based on his pedigree
He will struggle to stay 10f on debut
AVENTURIERE didn't appeal much
Fillies like her are 0-31 in these races
She is the only filly in this race as well
She could be here to get handicapped
ANGEL ON HIGH could be as well
Needs this 3rd run to get a rating
Started 33/1 last time on second run
Feel he is too risky on his 3rd start

RHUBARB BIKINI won last time
Has a step up in trip and penalty
No statistical objections to that
He looks the most likely winner
But he is understandably short
Going to split stake this Novice
BENTLEY WOOD may improve
The absence is not a big issue

Selection

£5 Win Bet BENTLEY WOOD 7/1

£5 Win Bet RHUBARB BIKINI 4/5




Dundalk 5.00

9/4 Wild Shot, 5/1 Paistiul, 7/1 Comporta
7/1 Monsieur Piquer, 8/1 Solar Heat, 10/1 No Trouble,
10/1 Followme Followyou, 12/1 Miss Louise, 16/1 Anfaass
25/1 Glenbank King, Misty Mountain, 33/1 Crystal Pool
33/1 Duquesa Beach, Red Vermillion.

12f Handicap

Messy race with few positives

Dundalk has 13 similar races
Run during the month of January
They all shared the same profile

Aged under 10
Running within 5 weeks
Class 5-6 last time out
Coming from 10f-12f last time
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
All 13 winners shared this profile

4 Horses share this profile

ROCKVIEW ROMAN
PAISTIUL
WILD SHOT
MONSIEUR PIQUER

WILD SHOT has a chance
But not keen on his profile much
Horses aged 6 or more
Coming from 10f or shorter
Absent more than 14 days
Have a 3-105 record in these races
None of the 3 had his weight

PAISTIUL is a 4yo filly
She is up in trip and short of runs
Just 1 race in the last 98 days my worry
FOLLOWME FOLLOWYOU the same issue
She has raced once in 132 days now

Horses aged 4
Coming from an 8f race
Return a 0-40 record in these races
NO TROUBLE has this unsafe profile

ANFAAS also steps up from an 8f race
Exposed with 1 run in 106 days
He would not be my first choice

Not keen on those with long absences
None look similar to those overcoming it

MISS LOUISE a mare absent 189 days
RED VERMILLION has 105 days absence
Lacks experience and hard to commit too
CRYSTAL POOL rejected with an absence
GLENCANK KING is a 12yo absent 139 days

MISTY MOUNTAIN a very exposed mare
Lacks a recent run and isn't running well
DUQUESA BEACH goes from 7f to 12
Far too radical a step up in distance
SOLAR HEAT is 11 years old now
Pulled up in a chase last time out
Far too unorthodox lacking positives
COMPORTA has been hurdling lately
Not a positive and not first choice
Not from a high scoring stable either
Who have not had a flat winner in years

Shortlist

ROCKVIEW ROMAN
MONSIEUR PIQUER

ROCKVIEW ROMAN is a 4yo
Not certain to run as first reserve
But is unexposed and has ability
Promises to improve at this trip

Both met each other last time
ROCKVIEW ROMAN was odds on
Having come there on a hat trick
MONSIEUR PIQUER was 7/1 there

MONSIEUR PIQUER was 5th
But clearly went off too quickly
Had previously ran well over 12f
Looks one of the stronger horses

ROCKVIEW ROMAN if he runs
Would be an optional saver bet

Selection

£4 Each Way MONSIEUR PIQUER 8/1

£2 Win Bet ROCKVIEW ROMAN 7/2





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES

Monday

There will be no message

Have an early hospital appointment
The fall out from Decembers illness
Day patient so won't be any problem
Tuesday messages will then resume


Australian Open Tennis

Looks like it is taking place
Despite the pollution issues
The draw has been released

Projected Quarter Finals

Rafa Nadal v Dominic Thiem

D. Medvedev v A. Zverev

M Berretini v Roger Federer

N. Djokovic v Stefano Tsitsipas


Novak Djokovic

To win this event

He has to get past these three

QF - Stefano Tsitsipas
SF - Roger Federer
Final - Rafa Nadal

Some see that as a bad draw
No worse than anyone else

Made the Decision earlier
Not to have a big bet on him
Not at 5/4 with all the issues

Having said all that
I would be very confident
Novak Djokovic will win
I'm already half regretting
The decision not to bet him

I have a solution
Including him in a personal bet
That I am working on right now
Will give you details on Sunday


Sunday's Column

20/1 + Personal Bet

Staking this bet to £50

Returns will be about £1000

There are 2 chances of £1000

And 3 savers to return the £50

It could offer serious pleasure
Watching how the bet develops






Saturday

Haydock 2.40

Peter Marsh Chase

9/2 Acting Lass 11/2 Prime Venture 6/1 Definitly Red
6/1 Midnight Tune 7/1 Champers On Ice 7/1 Geronimo
8/1 Vintage Clouds 10/1 Flying Angel 10/1 Claud And Goldie
20/1 Red Indian

Tomorrow

10 Horses declared

Calipso Collonges does not run
He was well touted in many places
But I did say he had other options

Looked at the race midweek
4 Horses are still on my shortlist

VINTAGE CLOUDS was shortlisted
He will be ok with just 10 runners
Hard to get back into bed with him
So exposed and not overbig either
But he could be the right option

FLYING ANGEL had one concern
Coming from 2m 5f is not the norm

ACTING LASS made the shortlist
Maybe he is the right each way bet

CHAMPERS ON ICE made this too
But 4 chase runs leaves me cold
Far from sure thats a sensible plan

Decision made tomorrow
Anything can change overnight



Supreme Novice Hurdle

6/1 Abacadabras 9/1 Fiddlerontheroof 10/1 Shiskin
14/1 Edwardstone 14/1 Envoi Allen 16/1 Chantry House
16/1 Captain Guiness 161 Master Debonair
20/1 Andy Dufresne 25/1 Janidil 251 Unexcepted
25/1 Mister Coffey 25/1 Sporting John

One of two recent developments

ABADADABRAS is drifting right now
Available now at 6/1 on Betfair today
May or may not be a concern here
It could always suggest a problem
But it also be other factors as well
Like achievements from other horses

ANDY DUFRESNE won recently
CAPTAIN GERARD was second

Many impressed by the runner up
Neither have safe enough profiles

Going back to 2000
5 year olds Supreme winners
There were 7 of these

They had 9 4 5 9 5 6 21 career runs
CAPTAIN GERARD only has 2 runs
ANDY DUFRESNE does have 4 runs
The same as 2015 winner Douvan
But lets face it he was exceptional
And he had 4 previous hurdle run
ANDY DUFRESNE only has 3 runs

Past 5yo winners
Had 7 4 5 4 4 4 4 hurdle runs
ANDY DUFRESNE has fewer (3)
CAPTAIN GERARD only has 2 runs
Don't see either as safe enough

SHISHKIN is a new player
This 6yo won easily yesterday
He is trading around 10/1 to win

He's only had 3 lifetime runs
One of those he fell at the 2nd
So he has only has 2 proper runs

SHISHKIN looks inexperienced

Past winners career runs
14 14 4 7 4 5 7 5 4 7 8 9 8
SHISHKIN is well behind these

Lots can still change
EDWARDSTONE runs this weekend
If he wins he has to be respected
But his sires hurdlers at the festival
Are 0-40 in races short of 3 miles

ABADADABRAS
Still my provisional choice
But need to monitor the market
Some recent signs of weakness

What I need from him
Come out and win in February
Ideally at Leopardstown on the 2nd
If he does that he wins the Supreme




Ante Post Statistics

Cheltenham

March 11th

RSA Novices' Chase

4/1 Champ 13/2 Minella Indo 9/1 Battleoverdoyen
12/1 Slate House 16/1 Faugheen 20/1 Allaho
20/1 Carefully Selected 25/1 Pym 25/1 Black Op
25/1 Copperhead 25/1 Master Tommytucker


Previous RSA Chase winners
Had the following career runs

9 16 10 13 8 8 11 9 11 11
12 9 10 10 18 11 9 9 8 9
Every winner had 8 + runs

The last 19 RSA Chase winners
Had the following Chase starts
3 4 5 2 3 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4
Only Don Poli won with 2 chases

18 of the last 20 RSA winners
Had at least 3 runs this season

Horses aged 6
Have a poor 1-42 record since 1998
We had a 6yo winner in 2015
But overall this age is weak

Horses aged 9 or more
Have a 0-24 record since 1998

Horses aged 8
Have a modest 2-47 record

Horses aged 7 are best
Winning 16 of the last 21 renewals

Most winners ran within 53 days
There were only 2 exceptions
The 2015 winner had 72 days off
The 2019 winner had 76 days off
None have won absent 77 + days
None won running within 3 weeks

No past winner
Came from 2m 3f or shorter
Only Presenting Percy in 2018
Came from 2m 4f or shorter
19 of the last 20 winners
Had a prep race over 2m 5f or more

Best Profile

Horses aged 7yo-8yo
8-18 lifetime starts
3-4-5 previous chase runs
3 or more runs that season
Running within 76 days

*********************************************************
********************************************************* ]]> https://forumcopy.mathematician-betting.co.uk/comments.php?id=57099 Mathematician 3432Thursday Jan 16th2 Previews 1 Highlighted BetHighlighted BetNewcastle 6.30 PUCHITA 4/1Each Way1/4 Odds 1-2-31/5 Odds 1-2-3-4Take 4 p https://forumcopy.mathematician-betting.co.uk/comments.php?id=57098 Thu, 16 Jan 2020 09:52:04 GMT https://forumcopy.mathematician-betting.co.uk/link.php?action=detail&id=57098
Thursday Jan 16th

2 Previews
1 Highlighted Bet



Highlighted Bet

Newcastle 6.30

PUCHITA 4/1

Each Way

1/4 Odds 1-2-3
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4

Take 4 places if you can
But it goes down as 3 places



Today's Message


Wincanton has been abandoned
Ludlow is dominated by hot-pots
None I wanted to back of oppose



There are only 2 previews today

Market Rasen 12.40
Newcastle 6.30

As ever there are complications
Had a couple of mini meltdowns


Market Rasen 12.40

£9 Win Bet SHESHOON SONNY 3/1

£1 Win Bet FEARLESS 7/1-8/1-9/1

One major meltdown at 9.12 am
When my original bet each way
Baron De Middleton pulled out

Wanted an each way bet on him
The odds on favourite beatable
And he had a very smart profile
That has all now been blown up
So instead it's a smaller win bet



Newcastle 6.30

PUCHITA 4/1

Each Way

Really like this bet but annoyed
She was understandably drifting

In the early hours she went 8/1
Who wants to bet an older mare
Who has never won in 30 races

Then there were 2 non runners
Her price still traded around 6/1
Yet she has since been cut to 4/1

A big gamble seems to be in play
I have twice watched her lately
She' ready to win at her best trip
But we have lost the best prices


There is a very strong case
To change the message time

Either put it back to 9.00 am
Or instead delay to 10.30am
Current 9.45 time is volatile


We are due a Bet

PUCHITA has to be that

Again this is a race
With different place terms
Which I find very frustrating


4/1 Ladbrokes 1/5 1-2-3-4
4/1 Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4
4/1 Corals 1/5 1-2-3-4
4/1 Chandler 1/4 1-2-3
4/1 Sporting bet 1/4 1-2-3
7/2 Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4
7/2 Unibet 1/5 1-2-3-4
100/30 Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4

Obviously 4 places is better

Will put this down as 3 places
Not everyone will get the four

There are always mind games
A dilemma to try and resolve

Today I thought it was Puchita
And whether to stake her as a bet
When she was drifting so badly

My alternative bet
Has gone up in smoke now

Now It's a different narrative
Whether to bother now at 4/1
Because she has been backed





Wednesday's Summary

Felt that was a rubbish message
The only good decision we made
To side with Poiticise as best bet
POLITICISE each way finished 2nd
No damage but beaten in a photo
Would could have done with a win
As the rest of the message stank
NEBUCHADNEZZAR was unplaced
Liked him but didn't trust the race
Previews fell apart after that race
Dreadful ground and a trappy day
But should have done much better



PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Market Rasen 12.40

5/4 Fix Sun, 11/4 Fearless, 4/1 Baron De Midleton
8/1 Time For Another, 10/1 Sheshoon Sonny, 14/1 Rob Royal
16/1 Getaway Bay, 20/1 Click And Collect, 33/1 Maisiebella
33/1 Taqwaa, 40/1 Call Me Chris, 100/1 April Rising
100/1 Midnight Popstar.

Novice Hurdle 2m 2f

This race is about the favourite
How good how fit and how ready he is

FIX SUN is a 5 year old
He has 247 days absence
He had hurdles form last year

Running over hurdles last time
Seems to damage his profile

January Novice Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 5
Previous Hurdle from
Absent over 100 days are 0-28

January and February
Novice Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 5
Previous Hurdle from
Absent over 118 days are 0-50
FIX SUN fails these statistics

Not sure how good an angle this is
But instinct would be to oppose him
This is soft ground
He meets older decent types
Including a last time out winner
The percentage bet is oppose him

FEARLESS is respected
But no hurdle form behind him
Long 382 day absence as well

Shortlist

SHESHOON SONNY
BARON DE MIDDLETON

Like both of these
BARON DE MIDDLETON won last time
Big advantage on Novice Hurdles
His profile is impressive

January
Novice Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 7
2 career runs
2 hurdle runs
Winning last time
Running within 2 months

13 horses had this profile
6 won and they all finished
W 2 W W F 6 5 4 2 W 2 W W
BARON DE MIDDLETON shares this

I'd have liked a saver
But could not afford one
Without losing the each way option

Stop Press

BARON DE MIDDLETON

Does not run


Selection

£9 Win Bet SHESHOON SONNY 3/1
£1 Win Bet FEARLESS 7/1-8/1-9/1





Newcastle 6.30

9/2 Gunmaker, 11/2 Puchita, 7/1 Lord Of The Glen
7/1 Meshardal, 10/1 Avenue Of Stars, Kommander Kirkup
10/1 Star Cracker, 14/1 Darwina, 14/1 De Bruyne Horse
20/1 Grayboy, Someone Exciting, 33/1 Crash Helmet


6f Handicap

227 Similar races in January

CRASH HELMET has 111 days off
Sold for peanuts since last seen

DE BRUYME HORSE has 190 days off
Badly regressive when last seen
And a trainer with a poor absence record
GRAYBOY has 308 day's absence
Not matchable to any winner with topweight
SOMETHING EXCITING an older mare
Ran yesterday and did not do enough

STAR CRACKER comes from 5f
Not safe as an 8yo with 38 days off
He's raced just once in 76 days now
MESHARDAL is running low numbers
He is now 10 years old as well
Has not produced enough since 2018

DARWINA is a 4yo filly from 7f
None have won as exposed as her
She is running selling class numbers

GUNMAKER is an exposed 6yo
He has raced just once in 132 days
Horses aged 6 or more
Having 1 run in the last 4 months
Running within 28 days are 0-56
That could reflect the bounce factor
GUNMAKER looks underraced here

KOMMANDER KIRKUP has a chance
But he is a 9yo and drawn high in 12
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent 2 or more weeks
Drawn in stall 8 or more are 0-43
Since the track opened

Shortlist

AVENUE OF STARS is a positive
Has the require class for this race
Has won off higher marks
Has won in a better grade as well

LORD OF THE GLEN is a 5yo
All his wins and best figures are at 5f
But he has plenty of form over 6f
Clearly looks well handicapped now

PUCHITA a fit and consistent mare
She's yet to win from 30 career runs
I don't believe she stays 7f or more
By Acclamation out of a Namid mare
I've opposed her many times at 7f
Amazingly 26 of her 30 career starts
Have come over 7f and more so far
She has had few chances to win at 6f

Two runs ago she burst clear in front
Over Wolverhamptons extended 6f
Something caught her very late that day
Last time she led and set a fast pace
But was forced 4 wide at the bend
The winner then slipped the field
She was eased down once beaten
This easier 6f is just what she wants
She looks a horse ready to win now

Selection

PUCHITA 4/1

Each Way





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES



Cheltenham Prep Work

Gradually making progress

Yesterday sent the Statistics
For the Cheltenham 4m race

Plan to postpone the analysis
Wait until the end of next week
The entries are far too unclear

RSA Chase statistics tomorrow

January 22nd

Entries published for these races

Arkle Chase
National Hunt Chase
RSA Chase
JTL


Tempting as it is in January
To bet Cheltenham Festival horses
The vast majority of horses quoted
Should be better prices on the day
With superior place terms as well

Grand National

Several people have advised
Kimberlite Candy in the National
Tom Segal has in the Weekender

I appreciate some have done this
To fullfill their column obligations
But it does not make any sense
To risk big race January winners

Rated 140 last week
He wins the Warwick Chase
People bet him for the National
The handicapper now rates him 150
He is 20lbs higher than he was last year
The horse is still only an 8 year old
The Warwick win impressive as it was
Has not helped his Aintree chance

My only National Bet so far

ALPHA DES OBEAUX 60/1

Backed him ante post in 2018-2019
Going very well when fell in 2018
Did not run in last years National
He pulled a muscle in the build up

Always felt him ideal for the race
Can't risk him winning unbacked
He is entered to run quite soon
Probably have a quiet prep race



Saturday

Haydock 3.15

The New One Unibet Hurdle

Pentland Hills 6/4 Call Me Lord 3/1 Ballyandy 4/1
Cornerstone Lad 5/1 Darasso 6/1 Ribble Valley 12/1
Song For Someone 14/1 Minella Charmer 20/1
Eleanor Bob 33/1

This race is run Saturday

Two very annoying problem
We can not know what will run
Assuming the meeting survives

The firms betting on this race
Outrageously offer just 2 places
When there are 9 horses entered
And 7 of these are 14/1 and lower
Can not bet in this at the moment

PENTLAND HILLS

Mentioned him recently
He is 8/1 to win the Champion Hurdle
Don't like his chance there as a 5yo

Pretty sure he will run here
As he needs more runs this season
Should he be favourite here ?

He is only a 5 year old
Rated lower than several others
He has raced only once this year

Surely a 5 year old
On Heavy ground at Haydock
In a graded January hurdle is risky

Not many 5 year olds run in this
The overall record is fine (2-9)
The 2 previous winners aged 5
Did so with 4 and 2 runs that year

Recent winners
Had the following runs that year
3 4 2 2 3 2 3 2 4 2
None had just 1 run this season
PENTLAND HILLS looks unsafe
He takes out 40% of the market
We may well need to oppose him

No point doing that now
Not with just 2 places available
And no confirmed runners yet

DARASSO has 308 days absence
The last seasonal debutant to win
Was the 2006 winner Al Eile
Probably wont be selecting him
But because Joseph trains him
I would not rule this horse out

CALL ME LORD is an option
He is a Champion Hurdle outsider
Feel he is overpriced for that race

Have to be careful here
Henderson stated this week

"I'm trying to run Pentland Hills
but not sure about Call Me Lord."

CORNERSTONE LAD may run
Have no strong angles against him

Statistically
The best trial race
Kemptons Christmas Hurdle

Horses from this race
Have a very smart 8-12 record
The last 4 winners of this race
Had their prep run in this race

BALLYANDY comes from there
The race named after a stablemate
Highly likely to run in the race
No problems with older horses
He could be the bet each way

Just not right now
With the scandalous place terms





Beautiful Bet 3

Now Suspended and Over

Prompted the following feedback


Hi Guy

I have played around with this bet
for a little while now. Some bad choices.

Cashed out with juventus losing then
them scoring twice in last 2 mins will just
be taking loss in future) but all along the
same premise as your beautiful bet

Top teams in their league mainly at home
You mentioned this bet could be done
with any top teams ie Juve and Inter Milan
and started using teams all around Europe
after you mentioned this.

I sort of abandoned Man City with their
inconsistency and I’m waiting for Liverpool
to lose so didn’t bet them at Spurs but I feel
you have come across something that is a
beautiful bet and can regularly bring in money
without real effort/studying

I think there is a way for it to build faster and
maybe get out more regularly for smaller but
more regular profits with a little extra effort
and not much though

I’m aiming to get out at about £100 but as there
are loads of opportunities this comes around
(hopefully) a lot more quickly than just using
Man City Liverpool. Once I’ve built a bit of a
bank I will aim to get out at higher amounts

For example

I have just started from 20 last weekend again
and due to European xmas break it’s been quiet
I missed Juventus game I was supposed to do.
I Bet on Benfica and Man City last weekend
both winning.

I went through fixtures on Sunday took about
5 mins and identified these possible games this
week

Sat
Man City 3
Leipzig 530

Sunday
Ajax 145
Inter 2
Juve 745
Barca 8

Avoiding Liverpool Man U

Also it appears slim pickings this week as for instance
Real Madrid who are 2nd play 4th
Benfica play sporting Lisbon so feel why risk as these
will be tricky games but normally more opportunities
per week

Obviously some of these times clash on Sunday so it
will come back to a choice But hopefully Sunday night
looking at 4 more winners

I have made a few mistakes along the way but have
got the bet back in profit and feel I will make money
Over the season so I will keep you informed but I
think it’s a beautiful bet.

*********************************************************
********************************************************* ]]> https://forumcopy.mathematician-betting.co.uk/comments.php?id=57098 Mathematician 3431Wednesday January 15th7 Previews 0 Account Bet0 Highlighted Bet No Staked Bet Had 2 options todayOne unsuitable to stakeBecause of a https://forumcopy.mathematician-betting.co.uk/comments.php?id=57096 Wed, 15 Jan 2020 10:01:16 GMT https://forumcopy.mathematician-betting.co.uk/link.php?action=detail&id=57096
Wednesday January 15th

7 Previews
0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet

No Staked Bet


Had 2 options today
One unsuitable to stake
Because of a weak market

The other I found quite late
Would have to rush it through
Without the proper scrutiny
Decided not to take the risk




Today's Message

Plumpton failed a inspection
Newbury declared fit to race

Punchestown 12.30
Wolverhampton 12.55
Punchestown 1.00
Punchestown 2.00
Newbury 2.50
Southwell 4.20
Southwell 5.20


The 2 inspections today
Made it hard to time things

I left Newbury until the end
My best bet could race there
But to be perfectly truthful
I wanted another hour there
To run further tests on a race

Newbury 2.50

NEBUCHADNEZZAR 11/2

Each Way

Feel this could be my best bet
But have had to rush this race

The other problem is
Few of the other bets I like
Not really suitable to stake
Mainly due to weak markets


Punchestown 12.30

POLITICISE 4/1

Each Way

Good example of this
This is an Irish Maiden Hurdle
With few fancied in the race
The price might not hold up

These are the only bets
I would consider stake-able

Feel a bit rushed
With the highlighted bet today
Mainly down to two inspections

NEBUCHADNEZZAR is a 5yo
Has to give weight to older horses
A few of which I have not had time
To look at in enough detail

Because of this
Because it is heavy ground there
Decided the bet was too risky

No Staked Bet


NEBUCHADNEZZAR should win soon
But he is the least likely of 2 options

Going with the other horse
As my best bet in the message
Despite this being a weak market


Today's Best Bet

Punchestown 12.30

POLITICISE 4/1

Each Way




Tuesday's Summary

Unusual to have just 1 preview
But at least the horse did win it
He ended up winning this at 3/1
Bigger was available earlier on
But there was a rule 4 to adjust
Weak market a habitual problem
Surprised I didn't find more bets
But 2nd message after a day off
I was most likely on the bounce


PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Punchestown 12.30

13/8 Oak Park, 5/2 Instant Return
9/2 Politicise 13/2 Three Comets, 10/1 Yafordadoe
12/1 Garrison Commander, 16/1 Line Break, 20/1 Insane Bolt
25/1 Brawny, Oliver Hardy, 33/1 Munaazil, Whatever Youlike
66/1 Pretty Fantasy.

4yo Hurdle

OAK PARK has raced once
Gordon Elliot was sent the horse
French recruit costing 22k

What bothers me about him
He was only a 25/1 chance that day
Unfancied from a top class stable
He ran well enough but on figures
He comes out as the 3rd best horse
Most of his main rivals here
Have at least 1 extra hurdle run
Could win but too short to risk
THREE COMETS ran in that race
Unseated at 20/1 he has a chance
YAFORDADOE has a weak NH Sire

Staying with the 2 horses
Who offer the best numbers
Have the most experience

INSTANT RETURN
POLITICISE

INSTANT RETURN 2nd last time
He ran ok last time on heavy
That was at a much easier track
What bothers me about him
His sire's record with hurdlers
They are 0-24 on softer than good

POLITICISE may be the right bet
I watched his race last time out
The fancied horses set the pace
Outsiders came through to win
I think they went off too quickly
Rate him a bit better than he showed
Which would be good enough to place

Selection

POLITICISE 4/1

Each Way



Wolverhampton 12.55

4/1 Dark Phoenix, 9/2 Adamaris, Nikolayeva, 6/1 Mabre
7/1 Arabescato, 8/1 Good Try, 9/1 Dame Rapide
10/1 Never Said Nothing, 16/1 Eloquent Poet,
16/1 Halfacrown, 33/1 Calamity May, 40/1 Dame Denali.

3yo Handicap (8f)

Some of the bottomweights
Look short of the class needed
Scoring some miserable numbers
The following all look outclassed
HALFACROWN and DAME DENALI
CALAMITY MAY looks unfit

MABRE comes from a 6f race
Not for me going up so far in distance
GOOD TRY is a filly with only 3 runs
Throw in an absence she is too risky

NIKOLAYEVA has been backed
But don't like the narrative here
Mark Prescott ran her in a claimer
Was prepared to lose her for £5k
Thats hardly a ringing endorsement
Having had just 4 previous races
New connections are very talented
But they's only had him a month now
NEVER SAY NOTHING flopped last time
Just looks too risky and not for me

ADAMARIS has to be respected
Don't doubt he has the ability
But he has the longest absence
He has the highest draw as well
Wolves 8f races since Jan 2019
Show stall 13 has a 0-30 record

DARK PHOENIX won last time
No surprise if he follows up here
Different track an extra furlong
Not a trainer I like to rely upon
ARABESCATO has a chance
Grey horse with high head carriage
Drawn 1 and from a sire in Outstrip
Who hasn't yet had a winner past 8f

DAME RAPIDE
ELOQUENT POET

Both ran just 2 days ago
Both from the same stable
Both have the shortest absences
Both will appreciate this extra trip
Should finish quite close together

Selection

Small Stakes

£2.50 Each Way DAME RAPIDE 14/1

£2.50 Each Way ELOQUENT POET 22/1




Punchestown 1.00

3/1 Magic Sea, 11/2 Nobel Joshua, 13/2 Saol Iontach
8/1 Chief Of Police, Fair Minded, 10/1 Breezy Bell
12/1 Ontheiflist, Shes Gold, 12/1 Sean Says
16/1 De Benno, Early Voice, 25/1 Benefit North
33/1 Backintheboom, Bold Emperor, Ice Cool.

2m Handicap Hurdle

One or two points of interest
DE BENNO is 15 years old for starters
Happy to ignore that age over this trip

The one statistic that interests me
How do 4 year olds cope at this track

Punchestown since 2009
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year

Horses aged 4
Have a modest 8-173 record
Those absent more than 28 days
Have a 0-70 record in them

No 4yo has ever won here
Since 2009 with over 4 weeks off
In any open handicap hurdle

NOBLE JOSHUA fails this angle
SEAN SAYS also fails this statistic
EARLY VOICE is also a 4 year old
If you look at all the 4yo winners here
Those with under 4 hurdle runs are 0-45
EARLY VOICE shares this problem
NOBLE JOSHUA and SEAN SAYS do too

BACKINTHEBOOM is absent too long
ICE COOL has an unfit profile
BOLD EMPEROR is running badly
BENEFIT NORTH not running well

SAOL LONTACH is a mare
Coming from a maiden hurdle
Well beaten in that not for me
But has been well backed here

BREEZY BELLE has the same problem
No mare has won a handicap here
Under 2m 4f coming from a maiden hurdle
FAIR MINDED is a lightly raced mare
Has not done enough to trust yet
SHE'S GOLD is a mare
Ran ok last time but not well enough
She was 40/1 to win a weaker race

Positives

ON THE LIST has an absence
Hard to read not ruled out though

MAGIC SEA won last time out
Overall positive but tough weight

CHIEF OR POLICE would be risky
Unseating in a maiden hurdle last time
But was going nicely when he fell
Has good enough numbers before that

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet CHIEF OR POLICE 7/1-8/1

£2.00 Win Bet MAGIC SEA 7/2





Punchestown 2.00

5/4 Et Dite, 13/8 Domitian, 6/1 Darrens Hope
7/1 Fort Worth Texas, 14/1 Commander Lady
50/1 Aurora Sunrise, 66/1 Miss Sophiea,
66/1 Regina Dracones, 66/1 Samsara Lady
100/1 Getaway Gold.

Mares Maiden Hurdle (2m 4f)

10 runners
4 look worth considering

5/4 Et Dite
13/8 Domitian
6/1 Darrens Hope
7/1 Fort Worth Texas

DOMITIAN is a 5 year old
The other 3 horses are 6 year olds

Age statistics how
Horses aged 5 can win
But they have a poor record

January
Mares Maiden Hurdles
Any Distance

Horses aged 5 are 9-273
Horses aged 6 are 32-307
Horses aged 7 are 16-193

Horses older than 5
Have a significantly better record

If you look at all these races

Horses aged 5
Coming from a hurdle race
Absent more than 28 days
Have a 0-64 record in them
DOMITIAN fails this 0-64 angle
Going to oppose him here
Based on the above angles

DARRENS HOPE is a positive
Despite no previous hurdle form
But comes from a smaller stable
FORT WORTH TEXAS has a chance
The above pair's best hope
May come from the favourite flopping
ET DITE has achieved more so far

Stop Press

DOMITIAN rather annoyingly
Has pulled out 15 minutes ago

Selection

ET DITE 10/11

Win Bet




Newbury 2.50

3/1 Eddiemaurice, 4/1 Royal Ruby, 9/2 Glockenspiel
5/1 Nebuchadnezzar, 8/1 Ferrobin, 10/1 Josie Abbing
10/1 Kenny George, 12/1 Mon Palois, 20/1 The Granson
33/1 Jacke Is Back.

2m Handicap Hurdle

On a Grade 1 track like this
Not many older horses win
When quite exposed over hurdles

Newbury Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 4f or shorter
Any class of race
Any time of year

Horses aged 8 or more
Over 10 previous hurdle runs
Absent longer than 6 days
Have a 0-82 record in them

The following horses fail this

EDDIEMAURICE
ROYAL RUBY
THE GRANSON

FERROBIN flopped last time
JACKE IS BLACK pulled up last time
Neither looked safe enough to risk

GLOCKENSPIEL is hard to read
Having 2 hurdle runs and French form

NEBUCHADNEZZAR appeals most
Topweight but strong powerful type
Looks more than capable of a win
Has not managed one over hurdles yet
But this his 7th run and 2nd handicap
Looks the weakest handicap he's had
Topweight against lower rated horses

Selection

NEBUCHADNEZZAR 5/1

Each Way




Southwell 4.20

7/2 Crazy Spin, 4/1 Emojie, Sea Of Cool, 13/2 Atalanta Queen
8/1 Caesonia, Daniel Dravot, Kashid, 16/1 Amber Rock
20/1 Another Approach, 33/1 Baile Ghilibert, 100/1 Monzino.

8f Handicap

SEA OF COOL is a 3yo
Taking on older horses

All age handicaps in January
In a similar class to this race
Show 3 year olds doing this
Have a modest 2-59 record

Those male him him are 0-21
Those with over 5 runs are 0-17
SEA OF COOL has a recent run
But up in distance not safe enough
AMBER ROCK's numbers are low
DANIEL DRAVOT won last time out
But unfancied in a very weak race
Previous form doesn't support him
KASHID has raced once in 126 days

ATLANTA QUEEN is a mare up in trip

CAESONIA has a chance
Filly drawn 1 needs to improve

CRAZY SPIN won last time
EMOJIE was 2nd behind him
Both respected and not ruled out
Have to take a guess from here

Selection

EMOJIE 7/2

Each Way



Southwell 5.20

15/8 Prince Caspian, 11/4 Global Esteem
9/2 Lion Tower, 13/2 Sur Mer, 8/1 Been Bobbied
14/1 Lady Latte, 20/1 Mr Terry, 100/1 Lady Dandy.

6f Novice (3yo)

LION TOWER has been supported
Not overkeen on his profile though
He has raced once
That was only 9 days ago
He was beaten 11.5 lengths there

3yo Novices
Run over 9f and shorter
Any time of year
Both turf and Sand

Horses with 1 run
Running within 12 days
Beaten 7 or more lengths on debut
Have a 0-72 record in them
Thats at any time of year
Since these races were introduced in 2018

PRINCE CASPIAN has 2 runs
GLOBAL ESTEEM has 2 runs

Both have shown enough to win
On their first ever runs
Both regressed second time out
Very difficult to split them

PRINCE CASPIAN a better stable
GLOBAL ESTEEM a better price
The better stable swung the vote

Selection

PRINCE CASPIAN 13/8

Win Bet




FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Australia Open Tennis

No decision yet about conditions
Djokovic suggests they postpone
But the money is still their priority

Big as both those influences are
It may come down to neither really
May be down to ballboys and girls
They just may not risk the visual
Kids unmasked running in smog
Would not be an image they risk


1) Peter Marsh Chase

2) Beautiful Bet 3 shutdown

3) Cheltenham's 4m chase




Saturday

Haydock 2.40

Peter Marsh Chase

6/1 Acting Lass 6/1 Prime Venture 7/1 Definitly Red
7/1 Geronimo 8/1 Champers On Ice 10/1 Vintage Clouds
10/1 Get On The Yager 10/1 Claud And Goldie
10/1 Midnight Tune 10/1 Daklondike 10/1 Flying Angel
10/1 Calipso Collonges 10/1 Prince Of Scars 12/1 Regal Flow
16/1 Virginia Chick 16/1 Red Indian

Grade 2 Handicap (3m 1f)

Number of Chase runs

34 Regal Flow
22 Definitly Red
22 Flying Angel
21 Vintage Clouds
12 Daklondike
11 Get On The Yager
9 Calipso Collonges
9 Prime Venture
8 Acting Lass
7 Claud And Goldie
6 Geronimo
6 Prince Of Scars
5 Midnight Tune
4 Champers On Ice
4 Red Indian
4 Virginia Chick


Obviously running plans are unclear

Highly unusual in this race
To see so many lightly raced horses

Several with under 7 chase races
Not sure that is ideal in this handicap
Given heavy ground and past renewals

Statistical problems
With the following horses

RED INDIAN has 287 days absence
The longest absent winner was 56 days

PRINCE OF SCARS is unsafe
Horses from 3m 3f or shorter
Have a 0-34 record in this race
He only has 1 run this season

Past winners runs this season
3 2 4 2 3 3 4 3 4 5 3 2 2 2
Been years since a horse won this
Having raced just once this season

GERONIMO has raced just once
He comes from a 2m 4f race as well
CLAUDE AND GOLDIE has just 1 run
GET ON THE YAGER has this problem

PRIME VENTURE does not look safe
Horses coming from 3m 3f or shorter
Have a 0-34 record in this handicap
He comes from the Welsh National
Which is far from a safe trial race
VIRGINIA CHICK has the same issue

MIDNIGHT TUNE is a mare
She is stepping up from a 2m 1f race
REGAL FLOW is 13 years old now
He'd be the oldest ever winner of this
In a race that was first run in 1981

DEFINITLY RED is topweight
The class horse but has 11st 10lbs
Jodami won in 1997 with topweight
Since then high weights struggled
Only 1 winner had 11st 8lbs or more

Possibles

DALKONLIKE an 8yo with 10st 10lbs
Unseated when 4/1 in last years race
Thats quite a big weight for an 8yo
Horses aged 8 with 10st 9lbs or more
Have not won this race since 2002
If the weights go up I'd be concerned
But right now would keep him on side

VINTAGE CLOUDS an exposed 10yo
Don't think we can rule him out yet
But the fewer runs the better for him
All his wins in fields of 9 or fewer
Not convinced he did enough last time

ACTING LASS is shortlistable
Would not want the weights to rise

FLYING ANGEL is not ruled out
But coming from 2m 5f is not ideal
Only 1 of the last 18 winners did it
He only had 3 runs far less exposed

CHAMPERS ON ICE is an option
But just 4 chase runs would worry me
Previous winners has the following
25 6 10 21 8 3 12 26 14 10
31 3 10 8 13 22 15 14 28
Only 2 of the last 19 winners
Had under 6 previous chase runs
Both winners had less weight too

CALISPO COLLENGES is rated 127
Lowest rated horse in this handicap
The last 18 winners were rated 129 +
He would be lowest rated winner
In his favour he has been rated higher

Best recent profile

Horses aged 8 or more
Under 13 Chase runs
At least 2 runs this season
Under 10st 12lbs weight
Coming from 2m 7f-3m2f

Horses with the above profile
Have a promising 6-25 record
Winning this race in these years
2003 2004 2005 2007 2015 2018
CALISPO COLLENGES has this

He does have another entry
In the Amateur race at Ascot
Going to wait for declarations




Beautiful Bet 3


Current Balance

Bet 1 - £100.00
Bet 2 - £60.00

Yesterday I was considering
Shutting this bet down soon
Which will be in profit by £11
Should Man City beat Palace

Why risk the Palace game
Going to shut this down now

Current Balance is - £160
Current Stakes are £156.15

Shutting down now
Cashing in the stake money
Means a loss of only £3.85
Welcome that with open arms
Given the stress we endured

The reason to stop this now
If Man City failed on Saturday
We would be badly in trouble
Just not worth taking the risk

Soon we can look back at this
Wonder if this was beautiful
I would argue that it still was
Because of the staking plan
We have had nothing go well
We have never had a big drag
But we can get out half way
With only a £3.84 loss on it

So we are now finished
Suspect the bet annoyed a few
Will still keep a lose eye on this
See what would have happened




Ante Post

March 10th

Cheltenham Statistics

National Hunt Challenge Cup

Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase 3m5f201y

Carefully Selected 6/1 Champagne Classic 6/1
Danny Whizzbang 12/1 Battleoverdoyen 14/1
Two For Gold 14/1 Faugheen 16/1 Brahma Bull 20/1
Mulcahys Hill 25/1


Past winner chase runs
5 10 10 4 3 5 9 11 3 3 7 4 4 4 4 12 5

No horse has won this race
Having had under 3 Chase runs

Past winners lifetime starts
15 16 24 6 28 13 6 13 23 25 5
13 13 15 15 22 28 26 16 14

Only 3 of the last 19 winners
Had under 12 lifetime runs
They had 4 3 5 runs this season

Past winners runs this season
5 7 6 4 2 4 3 5 7 4 5 5 7 4 4
Only 1 past winner of this race
Won with under 3 runs that season


Number of Runs

2019 - 15 races - 05 Chase runs - 5 runs this year
2018 - 16 races - 10 Chase runs - 7 runs this year
2017 - 24 races - 10 Chase runs - 6 runs this year
2016 - 06 races - 04 Chase runs - 4 runs this year
2015 - 28 races - 10 Chase runs - 2 runs this year
2014 - 13 races - 04 Chase runs - 4 runs this year
2013 - 06 races - 03 Chase runs - 3 runs this year
2012 - 13 races - 05 Chase runs - 5 runs this year
2011 - 23 races - 09 Chase runs - 7 runs this year
2010 - 25 races - 11 Chase runs - 4 runs this year
2009 - 05 races - 03 Chase runs - 5 runs this year
2008 - 13 races - 03 Chase runs - 5 runs this year
2007 - 13 races - 07 Chase runs - 7 runs this year
2006 - 15 races - 04 Chase runs - 4 runs this year
2005 - 15 races - 04 Chase runs - 4 runs this year

Long absences are fine
As long as runs this year are fine
Past winners
Had the following absences
52 37 134 24 47 31 75 18 78 30
46 33 96 39 131 39 19 19 25

Horses running within 14 days
Have a 0-32 record in this race

Horses running within 3 months
Beaten over 20 lengths last time
Have 0-69 record since 1999

Horses aged 6
Have a 2-57 record since 2009
One of those winners was very lucky
Only 2 have won since 1989

Horses from Handicaps
Have an overall 4-163 record
Since 2019 all 66 that tried failed

Horses from 3m 4f or more
Have a 0-34 record since 2000
*********************************************************
********************************************************* ]]> https://forumcopy.mathematician-betting.co.uk/comments.php?id=57096 Mathematician 3430Monday January 13th1 Previews 0 Account Bet0 Highlighted Bet No Official BetToday's MessageShort comeback messageExeter has been aba https://forumcopy.mathematician-betting.co.uk/comments.php?id=57094 Tue, 14 Jan 2020 09:45:00 GMT https://forumcopy.mathematician-betting.co.uk/link.php?action=detail&id=57094
Monday January 13th

1 Previews
0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet

No Official Bet



Today's Message

Short comeback message
Exeter has been abandoned
Leaving only the 3 meetings

Had to take time off yesterday
Having done 17 out of 18 days

Today the start a fresh run
But bound to be very rusty
The weather will be difficult
Did not start this until today

Only doing 1 preview today
Bit unfortunate but unusual

Wednesday has lots of choice
Fully back up to speed there
Normal message will resume
Included in the next message
Peter Marsh Chase preview


Today's Best Bet

Fairyhouse 3.25

BRAESIDE 7/2-100/30

Each Way





Sunday's Summary

The latest message Sunday
Was just a 4 race car crash
Combination of two factors
Smaller fields and no choice
And 17 messages in 18 days
I was stale and ready to stop
Hard to do that on a Sunday


PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Fairyhouse 3.25

11/10 Ashdale Bob, 9/2 Eden Flight, 11/2 Bold Assassin
8/1 Atlantic Shore, Braeside, 10/1 Vaucelet, 25/1 Henry Sellers
50/1 Thunderosa, 66/1 Padraic's Choice, 100/1 Feathered Gold.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 6f

Sexy lightly raced horses
Dominate the market here

Less flashy solid types
Who have form/numbers in the book
Should not be underestimated here
Especially as the ground is heavy

EDEN FLIGHT has ran twice
Just 1 disappointing run since 2017
Sexy connections and may well win
But he has no hurdling achievements
ASHDALE BOB is quite lightly raced
Only a 5yo and up in distance here
Ran his profile and found two winners
But they were back in 2008 and 2009
None have won for quite a long time
BOLD ASSASSIN is very inexperienced

Racing Post Hurdle Ratings

131 Atlantic Shore
129 Ashdale Bob
126 Atlantic Shore
122 Braeside - Atlantic Shore - Braeside
119 Ashdale Bob
116 Braeside
108 Atlantic Shore
106 Atlantic Shore
103 Atlantic Shore
102 Henry Sellers
101 Bold Assassin
92 Eden Flight

ATLANTIC SHORE
BRAESIDE

BRAESIDE was 3rd last time
ATLANTIC SHORE disappointed in 4th
But he came out 10 days ago
Ran a decent 2nd over 2m at Cork
That was the best figure any have done

ATLANTIC SHORE has momentum
If he repeats his last run 10 days ago
It should be hard not to go very close
BRAESIDE though gets the verdict
Looks like he has more improvement
And comes from a far better stable

ATLANTIC SHORE has a weak stable
Philip Fenton is a trainer in regression
Whilst having a solid career overall
Since 2018 his runners are just 1-76
Gordon Elliot has had more winners
In only the previous 48 hours
Than Phillip Fenton has in 3 years

Selection

BRAESIDE 7/2

Each Way





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Australian Open Tennis

Due to start shortly

Decided not to get involved
It looks more than possible
The event will be cancelled

They delayed the qualifying
The air is apparently so bad
A player collapsed on court

Expect things might develop
Leaving them with no choice
Could be wrong but my view
We will see a move to cancel



Cheltenham

Tomorrow we have entries
Being published in 3 races

Champion Hurdle
Mares Hurdle
Stayers Hurdle


Albert Bartlet

Statistics send last Friday
Preliminary analysis today



Target Race

Saturday - Haydock 2.40

Peter Marsh Chase

6/1 Acting Lass 6/1 Prime Venture 7/1 Definitly Red
7/1 Geronimo 8/1 Champers On Ice 10/1 Vintage Clouds
10/1 Get On The Yager 10/1 Claud And Goldie
10/1 Midnight Tune 10/1 Daklondike 10/1 Flying Angel
10/1 Calipso Collonges 10/1 Prince Of Scars 12/1 Regal Flow
16/1 Virginia Chick 16/1 Red Indian

Will look at this race
In the next couple of days

That's assuming it takes place
Haydock is heavy at the moment

We backed the winner last year
He was the most exposed horse

Quite a different race this year
For reasons I will explain soon

No 7 year olds either this year
None come from the best trial race

Annoying as well
That 16 horses are entered
And we are offered just 3 places

All that might change
Had a good look at this already
Lots of these can be opposed





Beautiful Bet 3

Preparing to Shut this Down


Current Balance

Bet 1 - £100.00
Bet 2 - £60.00



Saturday 3.00 Man City v C Palace

Sunday 4.30 Liverpool v Man United

£160 down on staking

Man City's last 3 games W W W
Liverpools last 3 games W W W
So we have stakes to play with

Bet 1 is worth £117.74

Bet 2 is worth £38.41

Man City are 1.12 on Saturday
Playing at home to Crystal Palace

Man City beating Palace

Bet 1 would be worth £131.86
Bet 2 would be worth £39.56

We could then cash that in
Forget about Liverpool v Man U

That would bring in around £171
Minus current losing balance £160
That would mean a profit of £11

We could then shut the bet down
Draw Stumps and call this a draw
And take all the stress out of this

If we carry on

Liverpool beating Man Utd
Would mean Bet 1 stakes are £191.19

If we took that option

£191 would go on Man City
On a cold Tuesday night (18th)
Where they are away at Shef Utd

Liverpool then play on Thursday
When they are away at Wolves

So if we keep this bet going

Both sides have away fixtures
Playing against talented sides
In the middle of the next week
Man City then go to Tottenham

My view

We have had enough stress
The bet has been a roller-coaster
It's been an uphill battle all along

We have a chance on Saturday
To put this bet to bed and end it
Without having lost any money

We can kill this bet off Saturday
We don't need Liverpool to win

If we carry this bet on
For it to have any success
We need the following to win

1) Liverpool to beat Man Utd (Home)
2) Man City to beat Shef Utd (Away)
3) Liverpool to beat Wolves (Away)
4) Man City to beat Spurs (Away)

Dont know about you
My Gut feeling is to Get out now

Makes a lot of sense to end this
It could cost is big money later on
But so much has to go our way

Therefore

If Man City win on Saturday
When they are home to Crystal Palace
I feel we should take a minuscule profit
And end the bet declaring it a draw

Will make a decision tomorrow





Cheltenham

March 13th

Albert Bartlet Novice Hurdle

Thyme Hill 5/1 Fury Road 8/1 The Big Breakaway 12/1
Latest Exhibition 12/1 Asterion Forlonge 20/1 Enrilo 20/1
Monkfish 20/1 Longhouse Poet 25/1 Andy Dufresne 33/1
Lord Royal 33/1 Midnight Run 33/1 Redford Road 33/1
Festival D'Ex 25/1 Imperial Alcazar 25/1 Figaroc 33/1

Last year
We had a 50/1 shock winner
Uncharacteristically lightly raced
Happy to see that as a one-off
Rather than a changing trend

In fact the last 6 renewals
Won at 50/1 33/1 33/1 16/1 14/1 11/1
But only last year was inexplicable

With no confirmed entries
This is still a very raw field
The winner may not be in the betting

The obvious flaw right now
Would be about the 5 year olds

Horses aged 5
Have a weak 2-52 record in this race

The two that won
Had 5 and 15 career starts
Had 4 and 8 hurdle starts
Had 4 and 6 runs that season

None of the 5 year olds
That seem in contention to run
Look suitable on their profiles

THE BIG BREAKAWAY is one
He only has 2 runs both over hurdles
Even as expected he runs again
He will still be short of required runs
If you look at his sire Getaway
His Listed/Graded hurdle winners
Have yet to win past 2m 4f (0-14)
I would ignore that statistic myself

THYME HILL

6 runs
3 Hurdle runs
3 runs this year

Acceptable on the above
But that would be my bare minimum
His numbers are also a positive
But you can did up some problems

His trainer has commented
He is "not the biggest horse "
And has said he may not run again
So he may go there with 76 days off

Past renewals show

Horses aged 6
Under 7 career runs
Under 4 hurdle runs
Under 4 runs that year
Absent over 48 days
I find a 0-10 record in this race
Included losers at these prices
5/2 2/1 100/30 8/1 9/1 9/1 11/1
THYME HILL the 11th to try

Right now not falling over myself
To bet him with an unconvincing profile
He also comes from a Grade 1 Hurdle
That has not been the norm in this race
Only 1 from 24 that tried managed to win
Much will depend on the opposition
But if anything appeals more than him
I would not be afraid to oppose him

FURY ROAD

6 runs
3 Hurdle runs
3 runs this year

If he goes straight to Cheltenham
He shares the same profile as Thyme Hill
We know horses with it were only 0-10

There is a quirky sire stat here
Horses sired by Stowaway
Have won 3m Grade 1 races
But the same horse won most
He did that in soft smaller fields
If you look at the sires hurdlers
Running over 2m 5f or more
Listed and Graded Class
In fields of 12 or more
They have a 0-32 record so fat
FURY ROAD might yet fail that

I wouldn't worry about that stat
FURY ROAD comes from a Group 2
The vast majority of winners did this

What would be significant
FURY ROAD running again soon
If he comes out and wins beforehand
Then he would leapfrog Thyme Hill
That's what I need before I select him

LATEST EXHIBITION is a 7yo

5 career runs
3 Hurdle runs
3 Runs this year

Past 7yo winners

Career runs 4 8 15 11 5
Hurdle runs 4 5 4 4 3
Runs that year 4 4 7 3 3

All recent 7yo winners
Had more experience than him
The one horse he is a match to
Black Jack Ketchum the 2006 winner
He also shares the same sire as him

I would like more runs for him
But if he does go straight there
I would certainly consider him
Espescially from a Grade 2 hurdle
Especially sired by Oscar as well

The Sire Oscar
Produced the 2006 2013 2018 winners

His trainer has said
He may run in a Group 1 race
At the Dublin festival at Leopardstown
The extra experience would help
Even if we lose the Grade 2 statistic

That covers
The 4 main runners in the market
The only runners under 20/1 so far

No doubt others will emerge later
And recent history clearly tells us
Outsiders have to be respected

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********************************************************* ]]> https://forumcopy.mathematician-betting.co.uk/comments.php?id=57094 Mathematician 3429Sunday January 12th4 Previews 0 Account Bet0 Highlighted Bet No Official BetToday's MessageFinal message of the weekLast Sunday was https://forumcopy.mathematician-betting.co.uk/comments.php?id=57093 Sun, 12 Jan 2020 09:44:38 GMT https://forumcopy.mathematician-betting.co.uk/link.php?action=detail&id=57093
Sunday January 12th

4 Previews
0 Account Bet
0 Highlighted Bet

No Official Bet



Today's Message


Final message of the week
Last Sunday was excellent
Much of this week was good
Wheels came off on Saturday

No recovery attempts today
Little chance of a bet today

The field sizes are so small
So few races are interesting
Corrupted by so few runners


Kelso 12.50
Southwell 1.45
Kelso 2.30
Southwell 2.50

This is 17 messages in 18 days
Think that showed on Saturday
So will be dropping a day soon
Probably on Monday or Tuesday

No official Bet

Small fields make it difficult
To know what to expect today
Not going to suggest any bets
Just leaving it as 4 selections
For anyone wanting an interest






Saturday's Summary

Message turned sour yesterday
Started out with nine previews
Two of these were non runners
Harry Senior bolted beforehand
Got withdrawn out at the start
The unraced filly in the seller
Did not run leaving 7 previews
These 7 finished L W L L L L P

BOBO MAC was an account bet
Held up to help get the distance
Looked to me like he didn't stay
But he didn't cope with the race
The pace quickened he did not
Our one single winner odds on
Shows how the bets struggled
No excuses just didn't fair well
Looking back since last Sunday
There have been 21 Previews
10 Winners 6 Losers 5 Placing
Been consistent and in control
Saturday is one different animal
This particular one had us beat


PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Kelso 12.50

5/2 Aloomomo, 4/1 Mah Mate Bob, 5/1 Mr McGo
7/1 Up Helly Aa King, 8/1 Charlie Snow Angel
9/1 Tanarpino, Well Above Par, 20/1 Ash Park
20/1 Knocknamona.

Handicap Chase 2m 5f

ALOOMOMO may be unsafe
Can see why he is favourite
His 2018 form does win this race
But that was a long time ago
It was for a different stable
He's raced just once since 2018
Similar race results suggest
Becuse he has 14 chase runs
May need another run this year

UP HELLY AA KING has 2 chase runs
He has also raced once this season
Want more recent runs than that
ASH PARK is a 12yo with an absence
KNOCKNAMONA is short of class
CHARLIE SNOW ANGEL is an 11yo
On a hat trick but career high mark

One of the topweights can win
TANARPINO has 1st weight here
Decided not to risk him with 12st
Party as he has a months absence
But mainly his best numbers
All came on good or faster ground
WELL ABOVE PAR has a chance

MAH MATE BOB is drifting a bit
Understandable going up in class
But on his Racing Post Ratings
His last run was his career best
Going to make him a saver bet
MR MCGO the number 1 choice
Producing the best last time figure

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet MR MCGO 7/2

£1.50 Win Bet MAH MATE BOB 11/2





Southwell 1.45

11/4 Jazz Hands, Silverturnstogold
3/1 Directory, 4/1 Robero, 10/1 Sea Fox
14/1 Momtalik.

8f Handicap

Small field

Topweight and bottomweight
May be the best strategy here

DIRECTORY is topweight
JAZZ HANDS is bottomweight

Both have one thing in common
On their Racing Post Ratings
They did career bests last time

DIRECTORY has to be a positive
With a career best just 5 days ago
Shortest absence class horse

JAZZ HANDS is bottomweight
Exposed 4 year old with 22 runs
Career best R.Post Rating only 69
I was initially sceptical about him
Feeling he may lack the class here

But when you think about it
His last 2 runs were career bests
He has just seemed to come right
He has recent runs and momentum
And gets 18lbs off the topweight

I am shortlist both
May not be a two horse race
But felt they had most positives

SEA FOX has no form here before
Has had 2 regressive runs in a row
ROBERO the oldest horse aged 8

SILVERTURNSGOLD is up in trip
He is the only horse doing this
He also has a 44 day absence
All his rivals run within 2 weeks
Hoping thats enough to beat him
Playing the race this way

Selection

£7 Win Bet JAZZ HANDS 11/4

£3 Win Bet DIRECTORY 5/2





Kelso 2.30

5/4 Mymilan, 8/1 Kings Eclipse
8/1 Lowanbehold 9/1 Multipede, Purcell's Bridge
10/1 Classical Milano, Katalystic, Westend Theatre

Handicap Chase 2m 7f

MYMILAN has been gambled
He is a strongly backed favourite
Clearly better is expected from him
And no surprise if he does win this
But he fails the following statistic

January and February
Handicap Chases
Run over 2m 7f +
Any Class of race
Horses from 2m chases
Have a 0-71 record in them
MYMILAN shares this profile

MYMILAN only has 1 Chase run
He won on his chasing debut

Doubts were raised about the race
They jumped only 5 fences that day
Some taken out because of low sun

Going to oppose him
Because he fails this 0-71 stat
Not there are many safe alternatives

PURCELLS BEIDGE is 13 years old
His jockey has a 0-62 career record
He does not look nearly safe enough
LOWANBEHOLD another 13 year old
Very exposed and an unlikely winner
MULTIPEDE pulled up last time out
Clearly suffered from the bounce
Hard to know what to expect here
May win but not a safe each way bet

CLASSIC MILANO has topweight
Fully effective in these races
Despite unseating last time over 4f
I can match him to one winner
But topweight and an absence
Gives him a lot to prove in this

KATALYSTIC is a 9yo
Unexposed with excuses last time
Don't like the combination much
Having 78 days off and a big weight

KINGS ECLIPSE wins on 2018 form
But from a small low scoring stable
It's asking him a lot on current form
For him to defy a rating of 100 here

Shortlist

WESTEND THEATRE won last time
Bottomweight in a similar handicap
No particular reason why he can't win
Not particularly rich in Class
But hard to argue he is not well treated

Selection

WESTEND THEATRE 11/2 - 6/1

Each Way




Southwell 2.50

9/4 Oblate, 11/4 Motahassen, 3/1 Fox Shinji
6/1 Baron Run, 10/1 French Twist, 12/1 Velvet Vision
33/1 Tavener.

8f Handicap

There are only 2 horses
That I could shortlist here
These are the topweights

MOTAHASSEN
OBLATE

The rest have flaws

TAVENER is outclassed
FRENCH TWIST is running slow

FOX SHINJI only has 4 runs
Looked at all similar 8f races
Horses aged 4
Under 4 career starts
Have a 1-41 record in them
That winner was absent 7 days
FOX SHINJI has 83 days off
Not for me coming up from 6f
BARON RUN a 10yo absent 246 days

VELVET VISION a filly down 4f
Has plenty to prove doing that
New trainer and has been backed
So perhaps She could be a threat
Her profile is very beatable though

MOTAHASSEN is a positive
Clearly bounced on his last run
OBLATE is a 4 year old filly
Ran both individual profiles
MOTAHASSEN a marginal edge

Selection

Small Stakes

MOTAHASSEN 5/2

Win Bet





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Cheltenham

Albert Bartlett Statistics today

Next day there is a message
Will have a play with the race
See if anything is interesting


Road to Cheltenham

Lydia Hislop

This is a video series
On the Racingtv.com website
Lydia Hislop alongside a guest
Usually one of the big jockeys

This was recommended to me
It is getting some rave reviews
Can help but agree about them

What a wife Lydia would make
The first thing in the morning
The last thing before bedtime
She would be talking Racing

The latest guest Paddy Mullins
So engaging and full of insight
Some of the content this week
Was about the Champion Hurdle

When asked
The Willie Mullins pecking order

KLASSICAL DREAM No 1 if soft
SHARJAH No 1 if good or better
SALDIER he is still unclear about
Could yet be the best or worst

He was refreshingly direct too
PENTLAND HILLS he dismissed
Does not want to bet a 5 year old
Does not think his form is enough
Feel the same about him myself




Beautiful Bet 3


Tottenham 0-1 Liverpool


Liverpool ever reliable
Came good again yesterday

Manchester City in action today
When playing away at Aston Villa
Feel we badly need this victory

What victory could mean today
We would just be 2 games away
From getting back all our losses
It could all come to next Sunday
Liverpool home to Man United

If we manage to get stakes back
It might be a good time to bail out
We will soon be entering the time
When Liverpool seal the League
They will not need to win games
Intensity will inevitably drop then
Players will no doubt be rested
Manchester City will do the same
Prioritising the Champions League

I had far great ambitions with this
Than to just get our stakes back
But if an opportunity comes along
To call stumps and refund losses
This may be a perfect time to stop



Ante Post

Newbury February 8th

Betfair Hurdle

Not So Sleepy 7/1 Eldorado Allen 8/1
Buildmeupbuttercup 12/1 Fred 12/1 Highly Prized 12/1
Thebannerkingrebel 12/1 Tiger Tap Tap 12/1 Janidil 14/1
Mack The Man 14/1 Mill Green 14/1 Bullionaire 16/1
Ciel De Neige 16/1 Fusil Raffles 16/1 Lightly Squeeze 16/1
Never Adapt 16/1 Pic D'orhy 16/1 Stolen Silver 16/1
Aramon 20/1 Countister 20/1 Flegmatik 20/1 Gumball 20/1
Harambe 20/1 Howling Milan 20/1 Monsieur Lecoq 20/1
Neff 20/1 Pacify 20/1 Pentland Hills 20/1 Quoi de Neuf 20/1
Sceau Royal 20/1 Sir Valentine 20/1 Eglantine du Seuil 25/1
Ecco 25/1 Elgin 25/1 Elixir de Nutz 25/1 Miranda 25/1
Oakley 25/1 Saglawy 25/1 Sofia's Rock 25/1 Vienna Court 25/1
Tamaroc Du Mathan 25/1 The Con Man 25/1 Chti Balko 25/1
Whoshotthesheriff 25/1 Didtheyleaveuoutto 33/1 Distingo 33/1
Mister Blue Sky 33/1 Touchthesoul 33/1 Antunes 40/1
Magic Dancer 40/1 Nelson River 40/1 Prudhomme 40/1
Zanza 40/1 Aiguille Rouge 50/1 Colonel Custard 50/1
Remiluc 50/1 Logan Rocks 66/1


First early look at this race

Ante Post Favourite

NOT SO SLEEPY 7/1

Mentioned him recently
Possible Champion Hurdle outsider
But this is an entirely different test
And he fails a powerful age statistic

Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 0-103 record since 2005

The last 13 winners
Were aged either 5 or 6 years old

NOT SO SLEEPY is an 8 year old

Two fancied in the ante post market
Who fail the same 0-103 age statistics

THEBANNERKINGREBEL
HIGHLY PRIZED

Recent winners hurdle runs
3 6 3 3 3 3 8 10 4

Horses with over 10 hurdle runs
Have a 0-66 record since 2005

Those aged 5-6 failing this are
Monsieur Lecoq 12 hurdle runs
Gumball 14 hurdle runs

Limited right now
To what I can do in this race
As there is plenty of time still
For horses to have another race
I wont be selecting any horse
Who has only had 1 run this season
But no point listing those horses now
As they could run again beforehand

PENTLAND HILLS looks unsafe
He will end up with a big weight
No 5yo has won rated as high as him
Even if he runs which I would doubt

The Most recent winners
Had the following Official Ratings

141 131 135 137 132 134 149 151 134 135

I would question the horses
Who are rated under 130 right now
Who may well lack the required class

Some of the more interesting horses

ELDORADO ALLEN 8/1

He needs another run this year
And horses from handicap hurdles
Have a bad record aside from last year

BUILDMEUPBUTTERCUP 12/1

Another from a Handicap Hurdle
My worry would be not running
Willie Mullins has a low profile
Since 2005 He is 0-13 in the race
I don't see him as a safe trainer

TIGER TAP TAP from the same yard
Probably wont run or be selected
JANIDIL another Mullins runner
Who may not even be going here
CIEL DE NEIGE is also from Mullins
You'd have to be sure he will race

MAC THE MAN is on a hat trick
But not sure you want any horse
In this race with 2 handicap wins
Especially not from a big stable

FUSIL RAFFLES pulled up last time
You'd want him out beforehand
Putting up a serious performance

FRED 12/1 could be interesting

Far too much we can not know yet

But the picture will soon be clearer




Cheltenham

March 13th

Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle

Race Statistics

Thyme Hill 5/1 Fury Road 8/1 The Big Breakaway 12/1
Latest Exhibition 12/1 Asterion Forlonge 20/1 Enrilo 20/1
Monkfish 20/1 Longhouse Poet 25/1 Andy Dufresne 33/1
Lord Royal 33/1 Midnight Run 33/1 Redford Road 33/1
Festival D'Ex 25/1 Imperial Alcazar 25/1 Figaroc 33/1


Past winners
Number of Hurdle runs
2 4 7 15 6 4 6 3 3 14 4 3 4 3 4

Past winners
Number runs that year
2 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 9 4 3 4 3 5

Combined Hurdle & Bumper runs
3 4 7 17 8 5 8 4 5 15 6 8 8 5 4

Horses aged 5
Have a weak 2-52 record in this race
One of the 5yo winners was lucky
The leaders went off far too quickly
The other very fit and experienced

The only two winners aged 5
Had 4 and 8 hurdle races
Had 4 and 7 runs this season

Only 1 past winner was aged 8

The longest absent winner of this
Won back in 2006 with 97 days off
That winner (Black Jack Ketchum)

Horses that ran within 26 days
Have a 0-35 record in this race

Horses aged 5-6-7
Coming from Non Graded races
Have a 0-104 record

Last time out finishing positions
Were 2 3 1 2 1 4 2 1 2 3 1 1 2 1 1
Only 1 horse has won this race
Beaten over 13 lengths last time
He came from a Grade 1 hurdle

Cheltenham Grade 1 Novice Hurdles
Every and any distance since 1997
Horses from Handicap Hurdles are 1-103
Those aged 4-5-6-7 are 0-96

He comes from a Grade 1 Hurdle
Have a modest 1-24 record in this
Horses from Grade 2 hurdles
Were better winning 9 past renewals

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